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The temperate mixedwood forests of eastern North America have been managed by partial cutting for several decades. To ensure that regeneration contributes to replacing the commercial-size stems that are removed by partial cutting, forest managers need to anticipate how saplings (i.e., regenerating trees with a diameter at breast height >1.0 cm) develop in terms of number and diameter. Using up to 20 years of monitoring data from three study sites, we developed a transition matrix model to predict the future number of saplings and their diameter distribution for mixed yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis Britton) – conifer stands. Our results show that partial cutting allowed yellow birch, red maple ( Acer rubrum L.), red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.), and balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) saplings to reach merchantable size faster and in greater numbers than in untreated control plots. We also found that fewer hardwood saplings (yellow birch and red maple) than softwood saplings (red spruce and balsam fir) were required to produce 1 m 2 ·ha −1 of merchantable basal area after 20–40 years. Finally, our model provides a tool for forest managers to predict sapling development in mixed hardwood and softwood stands over a full cutting cycle.