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Declining vulnerability but rising impacts: the trends of climatic disasters in Nepal

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Type de ressource
Article de revue
Auteurs/contributeurs
  • Chapagain, Dipesh (Auteur)
  • Bharati, Luna (Auteur)
  • Borgemeister, Christian (Auteur)
Titre
Declining vulnerability but rising impacts: the trends of climatic disasters in Nepal
Résumé
Abstract The impacts of climatic disasters have been rising globally. Several studies argue that this upward trend is due to rapid growth in the population and wealth exposed to disasters. Others argue that rising extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change are responsible for the increase. Hence, the causes of the increase in disaster impacts remain elusive. Disaster impacts relative to income are higher in low-income countries, but existing studies are mostly from developed countries or at the cross-country level. Here we assess the spatiotemporal trends of climatic disaster impacts and vulnerability and their attribution to climatic and socioeconomic factors at the subnational scale in a low-income country, using Nepal as a case study. Loss of life is the most extreme consequence of disasters. Therefore, we employed human mortality as a measure of disaster impacts, and mortality normalized by exposed population as a measure of human vulnerability. We found that climatic disaster frequency and mortality increased in Nepal from 1992 to 2021. However, vulnerability decreased, most likely due to economic growth and progress in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Disaster mortality is positively correlated with disaster frequency and negatively correlated with per capita income but is not correlated with the exposed population. Hence, population growth may not have caused the rise in disaster mortality in Nepal. The strong rise in disaster incidence, potentially due to climate change, has overcome the effect of decreasing vulnerability and caused the rise in disaster mortality.
Publication
Regional Environmental Change
Volume
22
Numéro
2
Pages
55
Date
06/2022
Abrév. de revue
Reg Environ Change
Langue
en
DOI
10.1007/s10113-022-01903-5
ISSN
1436-3798, 1436-378X
Titre abrégé
Declining vulnerability but rising impacts
URL
https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-022-01903-5
Consulté le
2024-10-13 11 h 47
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Référence
Chapagain, D., Bharati, L., & Borgemeister, C. (2022). Declining vulnerability but rising impacts: the trends of climatic disasters in Nepal. Regional Environmental Change, 22(2), 55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01903-5
Axes du RIISQ
  • 1 - aléas, vulnérabilités et exposition
  • 4 - réduction des vulnérabilités
Lien vers cette notice
https://bibliographies.uqam.ca/riisq/bibliographie/5KJQ5KRC
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