Bibliographie complète
Modelling glacier mass balance and climate sensitivity in the context of sparse observations: application to Saskatchewan Glacier, western Canada
Type de ressource
Auteurs/contributeurs
- Kinnard, Christophe (Auteur)
- Larouche, Olivier (Auteur)
- Demuth, Michael N. (Auteur)
- Menounos, Brian (Auteur)
Titre
Modelling glacier mass balance and climate sensitivity in the context of sparse observations: application to Saskatchewan Glacier, western Canada
Résumé
Abstract. Glacier mass balance models are needed at sites with
scarce long-term observations to reconstruct past glacier mass balance and
assess its sensitivity to future climate change. In this study, North
American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to force a
physically based, distributed glacier mass balance model of Saskatchewan
Glacier for the historical period 1979–2016 and assess its sensitivity to
climate change. A 2-year record (2014–2016) from an on-glacier automatic
weather station (AWS) and historical precipitation records from nearby
permanent weather stations were used to downscale air temperature, relative
humidity, wind speed, incoming solar radiation and precipitation from the NARR
to the station sites. The model was run with fixed (1979, 2010) and
time-varying (dynamic) geometry using a multitemporal digital elevation
model dataset. The model showed a good performance against recent
(2012–2016) direct glaciological mass balance observations as well as with
cumulative geodetic mass balance estimates. The simulated mass balance was
not very sensitive to the NARR spatial interpolation method, as long as
station data were used for bias correction. The simulated mass balance was
however sensitive to the biases in NARR precipitation and air temperature,
as well as to the prescribed precipitation lapse rate and ice aerodynamic
roughness lengths, showing the importance of constraining these two
parameters with ancillary data. The glacier-wide simulated energy balance
regime showed a large contribution (57 %) of turbulent (sensible and
latent) heat fluxes to melting in summer, higher than typical mid-latitude
glaciers in continental climates, which reflects the local humid “icefield
weather” of the Columbia Icefield. The static mass balance sensitivity to
climate was assessed for prescribed changes in regional mean air temperature
between 0 and 7 ∘C and precipitation between −20 % and +20 %,
which comprise the spread of ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios for the mid
(2041–2070) and late (2071–2100) 21st century. The climate sensitivity
experiments showed that future changes in precipitation would have a small
impact on glacier mass balance, while the temperature sensitivity increases
with warming, from −0.65 to −0.93 m w.e. a−1 ∘C−1.
The mass balance response to warming was driven by a positive albedo
feedback (44 %), followed by direct atmospheric warming impacts (24 %),
a positive air humidity feedback (22 %) and a positive precipitation phase
feedback (10 %). Our study underlines the key role of albedo and air
humidity in modulating the response of winter-accumulation type mountain
glaciers and upland icefield-outlet glacier settings to climate.
Publication
The Cryosphere
Volume
16
Numéro
8
Pages
3071-3099
Date
2022-08-02
Abrév. de revue
The Cryosphere
Langue
en
ISSN
1994-0424
Titre abrégé
Modelling glacier mass balance and climate sensitivity in the context of sparse observations
Consulté le
2024-08-31 15 h 04
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Autorisations
Référence
Kinnard, C., Larouche, O., Demuth, M. N., & Menounos, B. (2022). Modelling glacier mass balance and climate sensitivity in the context of sparse observations: application to Saskatchewan Glacier, western Canada. The Cryosphere, 16(8), 3071–3099. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3071-2022
Lieux
Membres du RIISQ
Types d'événements extrêmes
Lien vers cette notice