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Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada: A comprehensive understanding of precipitation-temperature scaling

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Type de ressource
Article de revue
Auteurs/contributeurs
  • Li, Lintao (Auteur)
  • Li, Zhenhua (Auteur)
Titre
Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada: A comprehensive understanding of precipitation-temperature scaling
Résumé
The convection-permitting climate model (CPCM), WRF-ARW at 4 km resolution, is able to capture the observed relationships between precipitation extremes and temperature (PT scaling) in western Canada. By analyzing the CPCM simulated PT scalings, we found they have robust patterns at different percentiles of precipitation intensity and even between the current and future climate. This is due to the stable annual cycle of the regional climate. The PT scaling pattern is physically governed by the amount of water vapour and the ascending velocity of air. Approximately 95% of the precipitation intensity variation can be explained by the vertical velocity and precipitable water in western Canada. The PT scaling for the current climate does not tell how precipitation extremes would response to a warmer climate. Trend scaling theory was utilized to estimate the intensification of precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. It shows that, in western Canada, the coast is particularly vulnerable to precipitation extremes under global warming. Precipitation extremes are projected to increase at a super Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scale over the coast, approximately at a CC scale over the prairies and mountains, and a sub-CC scale over the northern region. The warming effect on precipitation extremes is even stronger when the concept of”wet-day trend scaling” is introduced.
Publication
Atmospheric Research
Volume
295
Pages
106979
Date
2023-11-01
Abrév. de revue
Atmospheric Research
DOI
10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106979
ISSN
0169-8095
Titre abrégé
Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada
URL
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809523003769
Consulté le
2023-12-02 20 h 05
Catalogue de bibl.
ScienceDirect
Référence
Li, L., & Li, Z. (2023). Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada: A comprehensive understanding of precipitation-temperature scaling. Atmospheric Research, 295, 106979. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106979
Lieux
  • Canada (hors-Québec)
Lien vers cette notice
https://bibliographies.uqam.ca/riisq/bibliographie/6ETG2NQ9
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