Rechercher

Abstract The interdependence between climatic variables should be taken into account when developing climate scenarios. For example, temperature‐precipitation interdependence in the Arctic is strong and impacts on other physical characteristics, such as the extent and duration of snow cover. However, this interdependence is often misrepresented in climate simulations. Here we use two two‐dimensional (2‐D) methods for statistically adjusting climate model simulations to develop plausible local daily temperature ( T mean ) and precipitation ( Pr ) scenarios. The first 2‐D method is based on empirical quantile mapping (2Dqm) and the second on parametric copula models (2Dcopula). Both methods are improved here by forcing the preservation of the modeled long‐term warming trend and by using moving windows to obtain an adjustment specific to each day of the year. These methods were applied to a representative ensemble of 13 global climate model simulations at 26 Canadian Arctic coastal sites and tested using an innovative cross‐validation approach. Intervariable dependence was evaluated using correlation coefficients and empirical copula density plots. Results show that these 2‐D methods, especially 2Dqm, adjust individual distributions of climatic time series as adequately as one common one‐dimensional method (1Dqm) does. Furthermore, although 2Dqm outperforms the other methods in reproducing the observed temperature‐precipitation interdependence over the calibration period, both 2Dqm and 2Dcopula perform similarly over the validation periods. For cases where temperature‐precipitation interdependence is important (e.g., characterizing extreme events and the extent and duration of snow cover), both 2‐D methods are good options for producing plausible local climate scenarios in Canadian Arctic coastal zones. , Key Points We improved two methods for adjusting T mean , Pr , and their dependence in scenarios Methods are tested at Arctic coastal sites where T mean ‐ Pr dependence is crucial Both methods improve the plausibility of the local climate scenarios

Abstract The last deglaciation (20.0–10.0 kyr B.P.) was punctuated by two major cooling events affecting the Northern Hemisphere: the Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0–14.7 kyr B.P.) and the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.8–11.5 kyr B.P.). Greenland ice core δ 18 O temperature reconstructions suggest that the YD was as cold as the OD, despite a 50 ppmv increase in atmospheric CO 2 , while modeling studies suggest that the YD was approximately 4–5°C warmer than the OD. This discrepancy has been surmised to result from changes in the origin of the water vapor delivered to Greenland; however, this hypothesis has not been hitherto tested. Here we use an atmospheric circulation model with an embedded moisture‐tracing module to investigate atmospheric processes that may have been responsible for the similar δ 18 O values during the OD and YD. Our results show that the summer‐to‐winter precipitation ratio over central Greenland in the OD is twice as high as in the YD experiment, which shifts the δ 18 O signal toward warmer (summer) temperatures (enriched δ 18 O values and it accounts for ~45% of the expected YD‐OD δ 18 O difference). A change in the inversion (cloud) temperature relationship between the two climate states further contributes (~20%) to altering the δ 18 O‐temperature‐relation model. Our experiments also show a 7% decrease of δ 18 O‐depleted precipitation from distant regions (e.g., the Pacific Ocean) in the OD, hence further contributing (15–20%) in masking the actual temperature difference. All together, these changes provide a physical explanation for the ostensible similarity in the ice core δ 18 O temperature reconstructions in Greenland during OD and YD. , Key Points Precipitation seasonality and inversion temperature changes behind YD‐OD δ 18 O enigma Local processes changes accounting up to 65% of the expected YD‐OD δ 18 O difference Moisture transport changes from the Pacific accounting only up to 20% of the expected YD‐OD δ 18 O difference

Abstract Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014.

Abstract Sources and timing of freshwater forcing relative to hydroclimate shifts recorded in Greenland ice cores at the onset of Younger Dryas, ∼12,800 years ago, remain speculative. Here we show that progressive Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) melting 13,100–12,880 years ago generates a hydroclimate dipole with drier–colder conditions in Northern Europe and wetter–warmer conditions in Greenland. FIS melting culminates 12,880 years ago synchronously with the start of Greenland Stadial 1 and a large-scale hydroclimate transition lasting ∼180 years. Transient climate model simulations forced with FIS freshwater reproduce the initial hydroclimate dipole through sea-ice feedbacks in the Nordic Seas. The transition is attributed to the export of excess sea ice to the subpolar North Atlantic and a subsequent southward shift of the westerly winds. We suggest that North Atlantic hydroclimate sensitivity to FIS freshwater can explain the pace and sign of shifts recorded in Greenland at the climate transition into the Younger Dryas.

Significance In the model simulations analyzed here, large high-latitude volcanic eruptions have global and long-lasting effects on climate, altering the spatiotemporal characteristic of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on both short (<1 y) and long timescales and affecting the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In the first 8–9 mo following the start of the eruption, El Niño-like anomalies develop over the equatorial Pacific. The large high-latitude eruptions also trigger a strengthening of the AMOC in the first 25 y after the eruption, which is associated with an increase in ENSO variability. This is then followed by a weakening of the AMOC lasting another 30–35 y, associated with decreased ENSO variability. , Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2–3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8–9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

Abstract. Reconstructions of Quaternary climate are often based on the isotopic content of paleo-precipitation preserved in proxy records. While many paleo-precipitation isotope records are available, few studies have synthesized these dispersed records to explore spatial patterns of late-glacial precipitation δ18O. Here we present a synthesis of 86 globally distributed groundwater (n = 59), cave calcite (n = 15) and ice core (n = 12) isotope records spanning the late-glacial (defined as ~ 50 000 to ~ 20 000 years ago) to the late-Holocene (within the past ~ 5000 years). We show that precipitation δ18O changes from the late-glacial to the late-Holocene range from −7.1 ‰ (δ18Olate-Holocene > δ18Olate-glacial) to +1.7 ‰ (δ18Olate-glacial > δ18Olate-Holocene), with the majority (77 %) of records having lower late-glacial δ18O than late-Holocene δ18O values. High-magnitude, negative precipitation δ18O shifts are common at high latitudes, high altitudes and continental interiors (δ18Olate-Holocene > δ18Olate-glacial by more than 3 ‰). Conversely, low-magnitude, positive precipitation δ18O shifts are concentrated along tropical and subtropical coasts (δ18Olate-glacial > δ18Olate-Holocene by less than 2 ‰). Broad, global patterns of late-glacial to late-Holocene precipitation δ18O shifts suggest that stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses prevailed during the late-glacial, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles. Further, to test how well general circulation models reproduce global precipitation δ18O shifts, we compiled simulated precipitation δ18O shifts from five isotope-enabled general circulation models simulated under recent and last glacial maximum climate states. Climate simulations generally show better inter-model and model-measurement agreement in temperate regions than in the tropics, highlighting a need for further research to better understand how inter-model spread in convective rainout, seawater δ18O and glacial topography parameterizations impact simulated precipitation δ18O. Future research on paleo-precipitation δ18O records can use the global maps of measured and simulated late-glacial precipitation isotope compositions to target and prioritize field sites.

Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021–2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

Abstract The path toward a warmer global climate is not smooth, but, rather, is made up of a succession of positive and negative temperature trends, with cooling having more chance to occur the shorter the time scale considered. In this paper, estimates of the probabilities of short-term cooling ( P cool ) during the period 2006–35 are performed for 5146 locations across Canada. Probabilities of cooling over durations from 5 to 25 yr come from an ensemble of 60 climate scenarios, based on three different methods using a gridded observational product and CMIP5 climate simulations. These methods treat interannual variability differently, and an analysis in hindcast mode suggests they are relatively reliable. Unsurprisingly, longer durations imply smaller P cool values; in the case of annual temperatures, the interdecile range of P cool values across Canada is, for example, ~2%–18% for 25 yr and ~40%–46% for 5 yr. Results vary slightly with the scenario design method, with similar geographical patterns emerging. With regards to seasonal influence, spring and winter are generally associated with higher P cool values. Geographical P cool patterns and their seasonality are explained in terms of the interannual variability over background trend ratio. This study emphasizes the importance of natural variability superimposed on anthropogenically forced long-term trends and the fact that regional and local short-term cooling trends are to be expected with nonnegligible probabilities.

With the refinement of grid meshes in regional climate models permitted by the increase in computing power, the grid telescoping or cascade method, already used in numerical weather prediction, can be applied to achieve very high-resolution climate simulations. The purpose of this study is two-fold: (1) to illustrate the perspectives offered by climate simulations on kilometer-scale grid meshes using the wind characteristics in the St. Lawrence River Valley (SLRV) as the test-bench; and (2) to establish some constraints to be satisfied for the physical realism and the computational affordability of these simulations. The cascade method is illustrated using a suite of five one-way nested, time-slice simulations carried out with the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model, with grid meshes varying from roughly 81 km, successively to 27, 9, 3 and finally 1 km, over domains centered on the SLRV. The results show the added value afforded by very high-resolution meshes for a realistic simulation of the SLRV winds. Kinetic energy spectra are used to document the spin-up time and the effective resolution of the simulations as a function of their grid meshes. A pragmatic consideration is developed arguing that kilometer-scale simulations could be achieved at a reasonable computational cost with time-slice simulations of high impact climate events. This study lends confidence to the idea that climate simulations and projections at kilometer-scale could soon become operationally feasible, thus offering interesting perspectives for resolving features that are currently out of reach with coarser-mesh models.

Abstract This article examines the types of winter precipitation that occur near 0°C, specifically rain, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, ice pellets, snow pellets, and wet snow. It follows from a call by M. Ralph et al. for more attention to be paid to this precipitation since it represents one of the most serious wintertime quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) issues. The formation of the many precipitation types involves ice-phase and/or liquid-phase processes, and thresholds in the degree of melting and/or freezing often dictate the types occurring at the surface. Some types can occur simultaneously so that, for example, ensuing collisions between supercooled raindrops and ice pellets that form ice pellet aggregates can lead to substantial reductions in the occurrence of freezing rain at the surface, and ice crystal multiplication processes can lead to locally produced ice crystals in the subfreezing layer below inversions. Highly variable fall velocities within the background temperature and wind fields of precipitation-type transition regions lead to varying particle trajectories and significant alterations in the distribution of precipitation amount and type at the surface. Physically based predictions that account for at least some of the phase changes and particle interactions are now in operation. Outstanding issues to be addressed include the impacts of accretion on precipitation-type formation, quantification of melting and freezing rates of the highly variable precipitation, the consequences of collisions between the various types, and the onset of ice nucleation and its effects. The precipitation physics perspective of this article furthermore needs to be integrated into a comprehensive understanding involving the surrounding and interacting environment.

High-Latitude Volcanic Eruption Impacts on Climate: Filling the Gaps; Stockholm, Sweden, 5–7 November 2014

Evergreen broadleaved forests in subtropical China contain a complicated structure of diverse species. The impact of topographic and soil factors on the assembly of woody species in the forest has been poorly understood. We used Ripley’s K(t) function to analyze the spatial patterns and associations of dominant species and residual analysis (RDA) to quantify the contribution of topography and soil to species assembly. The 1 ha plot investigated had 4797 stems with a diameter at breast height (dbh) larger than 1 cm that belong to 73 species, 55 genera, and 38 families. All stems of the entire forest and four late successional species exhibited a reversed J shape for dbh distribution, while two early successional species showed a unimodal shape. Aggregation was the major spatial pattern for entire forests and dominant species across vertical layers. Spatial associations between inter- and intra-species were mostly independent. Topographic and soil factors explained 28.1% of species assembly. The forest was close to late succession and showed the characteristics of diverse woody species, high regeneration capacity, and aggregated spatial patterns. Topographic and soil factors affected species assembly, but together they could only explain a small part of total variance.

Abstract The Australian east coast low (ECL) is both a major cause of damaging severe weather and an important contributor to rainfall and dam inflow along the east coast, and is of interest to a wide range of groups including catchment managers and emergency services. For this reason, several studies in recent years have developed and interrogated databases of east coast lows using a variety of automated cyclone detection methods and identification criteria. This paper retunes each method so that all yield a similar event frequency within the ECL region, to enable a detailed intercomparison of the similarities, differences, and relative advantages of each method. All methods are shown to have substantial skill at identifying ECL events leading to major impacts or explosive development, but the choice of method significantly affects both the seasonal and interannual variation of detected ECL numbers. This must be taken into consideration in studies on trends or variability in ECLs, with a subcategorization of ECL events by synoptic situation of key importance.

Abstract. Numerical model scenarios of future climate depict a global increase in temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, primarily driven by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Aerosol particles also play an important role by altering the Earth's radiation budget and consequently surface temperature. Here, we use the general circulation aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, to investigate the impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies in Europe on winter atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. We analyse the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe reduction of aerosols in the near future (2030), in combination with increasing GHG concentrations. Our results show a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mean state by 2030, together with a significant eastward shift of the southern centre of action of sea-level pressure (SLP). Moreover, we show a significantly increased blocking frequency over the western Mediterranean. By separating the impacts of aerosols and GHGs, our study suggests that future aerosol abatement may be the primary driver of both the eastward shift in the southern SLP centre of action and the increased blocking frequency over the western Mediterranean. These concomitant modifications of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector lead to more stagnant weather conditions that favour air pollutant accumulation, especially in the western Mediterranean sector. Changes in atmospheric circulation should therefore be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments. The indicator-based evaluation of atmospheric circulation changes presented in this work will allow an objective first-order assessment of the role of changes in wintertime circulation on future air quality in other climate model simulations.

Abstract The climate of the eastern seaboard of Australia is strongly influenced by the passage of low pressure systems over the adjacent Tasman Sea due to their associated precipitation and their potential to develop into extreme weather events. The aim of this study is to quantify differences in the climatology of east coast lows derived from the use of six global reanalyses. The methodology is explicitly designed to identify differences between reanalyses arising from differences in their horizontal resolution and their structure (type of forecast model, assimilation scheme, and the kind and number of observations assimilated). As a basis for comparison, reanalysis climatologies are compared with an observation-based climatology. Results show that reanalyses, specially high-resolution products, lead to very similar climatologies of the frequency, intensity, duration, and size of east coast lows when using spatially smoothed (about 300-km horizontal grid meshes) mean sea level pressure fields as input data. Moreover, at these coarse horizontal scales, monthly, interannual, and spatial variabilities appear to be very similar across the various reanalyses with a generally stronger agreement between winter events compared with summer ones. Results also show that, when looking at cyclones using reanalysis data at their native resolution (approaching 50-km grid spacing for the most recent products), uncertainties related to the frequency, intensity, and size of lows are very large and it is not clear which reanalysis, if any, gives a better description of cyclones. Further work is needed in order to evaluate the usefulness of the finescale information in modern reanalyses and to better understand the sources of their differences.