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We analyze the impact of development on flood fatalities using a new data set of 2,171 large floods in 92 countries between 1985 and 2008. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that development results in fewer fatalities during natural disasters. Results indicating that higher income and better governance reduce fatalities during flood events do not hold up when unobserved country heterogeneity and within-country correlation of standard errors are taken into account. We find that income does have a significant, indirect effect on flood fatalities by affecting flood frequency and flood magnitude, but this effect is nonmonotonic, with net reductions in fatalities occurring only in lower income countries. We find little evidence that improved governance affects flood fatalities either directly or indirectly.
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Abstract. In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address – in research as well as in practice – since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.
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Flood hazards are the most common and destructive of all natural disasters. For decades, experts have been examining how flood losses can be mitigated. Just as in other risk domains, the study of risk perception and risk communication has gained increasing interest in flood risk management. Because of this research growth, a review of the state of the art in this domain is believed necessary. The review comprises 57 empirically based peer‐reviewed articles on flood risk perception and communication from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The characteristics of these articles are listed in a comprehensive table, presenting research design, research variables, and key findings. From this review, it follows that the majority of studies are of exploratory nature and have not applied any of the theoretical frameworks that are available in social science research. Consequently, a methodological standardization in measuring and analyzing people's flood risk perceptions and their adaptive behaviors is hardly present. This heterogeneity leads to difficulties in comparing results among studies. It is also shown that theoretical and empirical studies on flood risk communication are nearly nonexistent. The article concludes with a summary on methodological issues in the fields of flood‐risk perception and flood‐risk communication and proposes an agenda for future research.
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Abstract While flood risk management planning in the U nited S tates has focused on flood control structures designed to protect the economic value of property, it has consistently undervalued other social impacts associated with flooding. The US A rmy C orps of E ngineers ( USACE ) recently initiated research aimed at understanding how to incorporate social characteristics into the measures currently utilised in flood control project evaluation and consideration. This paper proposes a methodology for incorporating a known measure of social vulnerability, the S ocial V ulnerability I ndex ( SoVI ), into USACE civil works planning. Using the USACE S outh A tlantic D ivision as the study area, this paper evaluates eight different variations of the social vulnerability metric and their potential deployment in USACE projects. Each formulation is compared with the original‐computed SoVI as a means to test its spatial and statistical sensitivity, including an assessment of each variant's robustness, reducibility, scalability, and transferability. Results indicate that while it is possible to create simplified, yet robust, versions of SoVI for individual places, such ‘lite’ metrics tend to fall short in areas of scalability and transferability in relation to the original SoVI formulation.