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L’interface de recherche est composée de trois sections : Rechercher, Explorer et Résultats. Celles-ci sont décrites en détail ci-dessous.

Vous pouvez lancer une recherche aussi bien à partir de la section Rechercher qu’à partir de la section Explorer.

Rechercher

Cette section affiche vos critères de recherche courants et vous permet de soumettre des mots-clés à chercher dans la bibliographie.

  • Chaque nouvelle soumission ajoute les mots-clés saisis à la liste des critères de recherche.
  • Pour lancer une nouvelle recherche plutôt qu’ajouter des mots-clés à la recherche courante, utilisez le bouton Réinitialiser la recherche, puis entrez vos mots-clés.
  • Pour remplacer un mot-clé déjà soumis, veuillez d’abord le retirer en décochant sa case à cocher, puis soumettre un nouveau mot-clé.
  • Vous pouvez contrôler la portée de votre recherche en choisissant où chercher. Les options sont :
    • Partout : repère vos mots-clés dans tous les champs des références bibliographiques ainsi que dans le contenu textuel des documents disponibles.
    • Dans les auteurs ou contributeurs : repère vos mots-clés dans les noms d’auteurs ou de contributeurs.
    • Dans les titres : repère vos mots-clés dans les titres.
    • Dans les années de publication : repère vos mots-clés dans le champ d’année de publication (vous pouvez utiliser l’opérateur OU avec vos mots-clés pour trouver des références ayant différentes années de publication. Par exemple, 2020 OU 2021).
    • Dans tous les champs : repère vos mots-clés dans tous les champs des notices bibliographiques.
    • Dans les documents : repère vos mots-clés dans le contenu textuel des documents disponibles.
  • Vous pouvez utiliser les opérateurs booléens avec vos mots-clés :
    • ET : repère les références qui contiennent tous les termes fournis. Ceci est la relation par défaut entre les termes séparés d’un espace. Par exemple, a b est équivalent à a ET b.
    • OU : repère les références qui contiennent n’importe lequel des termes fournis. Par exemple, a OU b.
    • SAUF : exclut les références qui contiennent le terme fourni. Par exemple, SAUF a.
    • Les opérateurs booléens doivent être saisis en MAJUSCULES.
  • Vous pouvez faire des groupements logiques (avec les parenthèses) pour éviter les ambiguïtés lors de la combinaison de plusieurs opérateurs booléens. Par exemple, (a OU b) ET c.
  • Vous pouvez demander une séquence exacte de mots (avec les guillemets droits), par exemple "a b c". Par défaut la différence entre les positions des mots est de 1, ce qui signifie qu’une référence sera repérée si elle contient les mots et qu’ils sont consécutifs. Une distance maximale différente peut être fournie (avec le tilde), par exemple "a b"~2 permet jusqu’à un terme entre a et b, ce qui signifie que la séquence a c b pourrait être repérée aussi bien que a b.
  • Vous pouvez préciser que certains termes sont plus importants que d’autres (avec l’accent circonflexe). Par exemple, a^2 b c^0.5 indique que a est deux fois plus important que b dans le calcul de pertinence des résultats, tandis que c est de moitié moins important. Ce type de facteur peut être appliqué à un groupement logique, par exemple (a b)^3 c.
  • La recherche par mots-clés est insensible à la casse et les accents et la ponctuation sont ignorés.
  • Les terminaisons des mots sont amputées pour la plupart des champs, tels le titre, le résumé et les notes. L’amputation des terminaisons vous évite d’avoir à prévoir toutes les formes possibles d’un mot dans vos recherches. Ainsi, les termes municipal, municipale et municipaux, par exemple, donneront tous le même résultat. L’amputation des terminaisons n’est pas appliquée au texte des champs de noms, tels auteurs/contributeurs, éditeur, publication.

Explorer

Cette section vous permet d’explorer les catégories associées aux références.

  • Les catégories peuvent servir à affiner votre recherche. Cochez une catégorie pour l’ajouter à vos critères de recherche. Les résultats seront alors restreints aux références qui sont associées à cette catégorie.
  • Dé-cochez une catégorie pour la retirer de vos critères de recherche et élargir votre recherche.
  • Les nombres affichés à côté des catégories indiquent combien de références sont associées à chaque catégorie considérant les résultats de recherche courants. Ces nombres varieront en fonction de vos critères de recherche, de manière à toujours décrire le jeu de résultats courant. De même, des catégories et des facettes entières pourront disparaître lorsque les résultats de recherche ne contiennent aucune référence leur étant associées.
  • Une icône de flèche () apparaissant à côté d’une catégorie indique que des sous-catégories sont disponibles. Vous pouvez appuyer sur l’icône pour faire afficher la liste de ces catégories plus spécifiques. Par la suite, vous pouvez appuyer à nouveau pour masquer la liste. L’action d’afficher ou de masquer les sous-catégories ne modifie pas vos critères de recherche; ceci vous permet de rapidement explorer l’arborescence des catégories, si désiré.

Résultats

Cette section présente les résultats de recherche. Si aucun critère de recherche n’a été fourni, elle montre toute la bibliographie (jusqu’à 20 références par page).

  • Chaque référence de la liste des résultats est un hyperlien vers sa notice bibliographique complète. À partir de la notice, vous pouvez continuer à explorer les résultats de recherche en naviguant vers les notices précédentes ou suivantes de vos résultats de recherche, ou encore retourner à la liste des résultats.
  • Des hyperliens supplémentaires, tels que Consulter le document ou Consulter sur [nom d’un site web], peuvent apparaître sous un résultat de recherche. Ces liens vous fournissent un accès rapide à la ressource, des liens que vous trouverez également dans la notice bibliographique.
  • Le bouton Résumés vous permet d’activer ou de désactiver l’affichage des résumés dans la liste des résultats de recherche. Toutefois, activer l’affichage des résumés n’aura aucun effet sur les résultats pour lesquels aucun résumé n’est disponible.
  • Diverses options sont fournies pour permettre de contrôler l’ordonnancement les résultats de recherche. L’une d’elles est l’option de tri par Pertinence, qui classe les résultats du plus pertinent au moins pertinent. Le score utilisé à cette fin prend en compte la fréquence des mots ainsi que les champs dans lesquels ils apparaissent. Par exemple, si un terme recherché apparaît fréquemment dans une référence ou est l’un d’un très petit nombre de termes utilisé dans cette référence, cette référence aura probablement un score plus élevé qu’une autre où le terme apparaît moins fréquemment ou qui contient un très grand nombre de mots. De même, le score sera plus élevé si un terme est rare dans l’ensemble de la bibliographie que s’il est très commun. De plus, si un terme de recherche apparaît par exemple dans le titre d’une référence, le score de cette référence sera plus élevé que s’il apparaissait dans un champ moins important tel le résumé.
  • Le tri par Pertinence n’est disponible qu’après avoir soumis des mots-clés par le biais de la section Rechercher.
  • Les catégories sélectionnées dans la section Explorer n’ont aucun effet sur le tri par pertinence. Elles ne font que filtrer la liste des résultats.
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Résultats 724 ressources

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Résumés
  • Valois, P., Anctil, F., Cloutier, G., Tessier, M., & Herpin-Saunier, N. (2023). Following up on flood adaptation in Québec households four years later: A prospective exploratory study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 94, 103782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103782
    Consulter sur linkinghub.elsevier.com
  • Finch, C., Emrich, C. T., & Cutter, S. L. (2010). Disaster disparities and differential recovery in New Orleans. Population and Environment, 31(4), 179–202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-009-0099-8

    The historical disparities in the socio-demographic structure of New Orleans shaped the social vulnerability of local residents and their responses to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. These disparities, derived from race, class, gender, and age differences, have resulted in the uneven impact of the catastrophe on various communities in New Orleans, and importantly, their ability to recover. This article examines how the pre-existing social vulnerabilities within New Orleans interacted with the level of flood exposure to produce inequities in the socio-spatial patterns of recovery. Utilizing a combination of statistical and spatial approaches, we found a distinct geographic pattern to the recovery suggesting that the social burdens and impacts from Hurricane Katrina are uneven—the less flooded and less vulnerable areas are recovering faster than tracts with more vulnerable populations and higher levels of flooding. However, there is a more nuanced story, which suggests that it is neighborhoods in the mid-range of social vulnerability where recovery is lagging. While private resources and government programs help groups in the high and low categories of social vulnerability, the middle group shows the slowest rates of recovery. Further, it appears that the congressionally funded State of Louisiana Road Home Program (designed to provide compensation to Louisiana’s homeowners who suffered impacts by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita for the damage to their home) is not having a significant effect in stimulating recovery within the city.

  • Jeong, D. I., & Sushama, L. (2018). Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, 50(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3609-x

    This study evaluates projected changes to rain-on-snow (ROS) characteristics (i.e., frequency, rainfall amount, and runoff) for the future 2041–2070 period with respect to the current 1976–2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Prior to assessing projected changes, the two RCMs are evaluated by comparing ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations with available observations, and results indicate that both models reproduce reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of ROS event frequency and other related features. Analysis of current and future simulations suggest general increases in ROS characteristics during the November–March period for most regions of Canada and for northwestern US for the future period, due to an increase in the rainfall frequency with warmer air temperatures in future. Future ROS runoff is often projected to increase more than future ROS rainfall amounts, particularly for northeastern North America, during snowmelt months, as ROS events usually accelerate snowmelt. The simulations show that ROS event is a primary flood generating mechanism over most of Canada and north-western and -central US for the January–May period for the current period and this is projected to continue in the future period. More focused analysis over selected basins shows decreases in future spring runoff due to decreases in both snow cover and ROS runoff. The above results highlight the need to take into consideration ROS events in water resources management adaptation strategies for future climate.

  • Kahn, M. E. (2005). The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(2), 271–284. https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653053970339

    Using a new data set on annual deaths from disasters in 73 nations from 1980 to 2002, this paper tests several hypotheses concerning natural-disaster mitigation. Though richer nations do not experience fewer natural disasters than poorer nations, richer nations do suffer less death from disaster. Economic development provides implicit insurance against nature's shocks. Democracies and nations with higher-quality institutions suffer less death from natural disaster. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disasters such as floods, these results have implications for the incidence of global warming.

  • Laurens M. Bouwer, Bouwer, L. M., Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, & Jonkman, S. N. (2018). Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing. Environmental Research Letters, 13(1), 014008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98a3

    Changes in society's vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (g10000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

  • Li, M., McGrath, H., & Stefanakis, E. (2022). Geovisualization of Hydrological Flow in Hexagonal Grid Systems. Geographies, 2(2), 227–244. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies2020016

    Recent research has extended conventional hydrological algorithms into a hexagonal grid and noted that hydrological modeling on a hexagonal mesh grid outperformed that on a rectangular grid. Among the hydrological products, flow routing grids are the base of many other hydrological simulations, such as flow accumulation, watershed delineation, and stream networks. However, most of the previous research adopted the D6 algorithm, which is analogous to the D8 algorithm over a rectangular grid, to produce flow routing. This paper explored another four methods regarding generating flow directions in a hexagonal grid, based on four algorithms of slope aspect computation. We also developed and visualized hexagonal-grid-based hydrological operations, including flow accumulation, watershed delineation, and hydrological indices computation. Experiments were carried out across multiple grid resolutions with various terrain roughness. The results showed that flow direction can vary among different approaches, and the impact of such variation can propagate to flow accumulation, watershed delineation, and hydrological indices production, which was reflected by the cell-wise comparison and visualization. This research is practical for hydrological analysis in hexagonal, hierarchical grids, such as Discrete Global Grid Systems, and the developed operations can be used in flood modeling in the real world.

    Consulter sur www.mdpi.com
  • Msilini, A., Masselot, P., & Ouarda, T. B. M. J. (2020). Regional Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Sites with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(12). https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0213.1

    Hydrological systems are naturally complex and nonlinear. A large number of variables, many of which not yet well considered in regional frequency analysis (RFA), have a significant impact on hydrological dynamics and consequently on flood quantile estimates. Despite the increasing number of statistical tools used to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites, little attention has been dedicated to the development of new regional estimation (RE) models accounting for both nonlinear links and interactions between hydrological and physio-meteorological variables. The aim of this paper is to simultaneously take into account nonlinearity and interactions between variables by introducing the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) approach in RFA. The predictive performances of MARS are compared with those obtained by one of the most robust RE models: the generalized additive model (GAM). Both approaches are applied to two datasets covering 151 hydrometric stations in the province of Quebec (Canada): a standard dataset (STA) containing commonly used variables and an extended dataset (EXTD) combining STA with additional variables dealing with drainage network characteristics. Results indicate that RE models using MARS with the EXTD outperform slightly RE models using GAM. Thus, MARS seems to allow for a better representation of the hydrological process and an increased predictive power in RFA.

  • Odry, J., Boucher, M.-A., Lachance Cloutier, S., Turcotte, R., & Saint-Louis, P.-Y. (2020). Mapping SWE in near real time across a large territory using a particle filter. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8166

    <p>In snow-prone regions, snowmelt is one of the main drivers of runoff. For operational flood forecasting and mitigation, the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in near real time is necessary. In this context, in situ observations of SWE provide a valuable information. Nonetheless, the high spatial variability of snowpack characteristics makes it necessary to implement some kind of snow modelling to get a spatially continuous estimation. Data assimilation is thus a useful approach to combine information from both observation and modeling in near real-time. </p><p>For example, at the provincial government of Quebec (eastern Canada), the HYDROTEL Snowpack Model is applied on a daily basis over a 0.1 degree resolution mesh covering the whole province. The modelled SWE is corrected in real time by in situ manual snow survey which are assimilated using a spatial particles filter (Cantet et al., 2019). This assimilation method improves the reliability of SWE estimation at ungauged sites.</p><p>The availability of manual snow surveys is however limited both in space and time. These measurements are conducted on a bi-weekly basis in a limited number of sites. In order to further improve the temporal and spatial observation coverage, alternative sources of data should be considered.</p><p>In this research, it is hypothesized that data gathered by SR50 sonic sensors can be assimilated in the spatial particle filter to improve the SWE estimation. These automatic sensors provide hourly measurements of snow depth and have been deployed in Quebec since 2005. Beforehand, probabilistic SWE estimations were derived from the SR50 snow depth measurements using an ensemble of artificial neural networks (Odry et al. 2019). Considering the nature of the data and the conversion process, the uncertainty associated with this dataset is supposed larger than for the manual snow surveys. The objective of the research is to evaluate the potential interest of adding this lower-quality information in the assimilation framework.</p><p>The addition of frequent but uncertain data in the spatial particle filter required some adjustments in term of assimilation frequency and particle resampling. A reordering of the particles was implemented to maintain the spatial coherence between the different particles. With these changes, the consideration of both manual snow surveys and SR50 data in the spatial particle filter reached performances that are comparable to the initial particle filter that combines only the model and manual snow survey for estimating SWE in ungauged sites. However, the addition of SR50 data in the particle filter allows for continuous information in time, between manual snow surveys.</p><p> </p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Cantet, P., Boucher, M.-A., Lachance-Coutier, S., Turcotte, R., Fortin, V. (2019). Using a particle filter to estimate the spatial distribution of the snowpack water equivalent. J. Hydrometeorol, 20.</p><p>Odry, J., Boucher, M.-A., Cantet,P., Lachance-Cloutier, S., Turcotte, R., St-Louis, P.-Y. (2019). Using artificial neural networks to estimate snow water equivalent from snow depth. Canadian water ressources journal (under review)</p>

    Consulter sur meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
  • Pourshahbaz, H., Ghobrial, T., & Shakibaeinia, A. (2024). Evaluation of a Coupled CFD and Multi-Body Motion Model for Ice-Structure Interaction Simulation. Water, 16(17), 2454. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172454

    The interaction of water flow, ice, and structures is common in fluvial ice processes, particularly around Ice Control Structures (ICSs) that are used to manage and prevent ice jam floods. To evaluate the effectiveness of ICSs, it is essential to understand the complex interaction between water flow, ice and the structure. Numerical modeling is a valuable tool that can facilitate such understanding. Until now, classical Eulerian mesh-based methods have not been evaluated for the simulation of ice interaction with ICS. In this paper we evaluate the capability, accuracy, and efficiency of a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and multi-body motion numerical model, based on the mesh-based FLOW-3D V.2023 R1 software for simulation of ice-structure interactions in several benchmark cases. The model’s performance was compared with results from meshless-based models (performed by others) for the same laboratory test cases that were used as a reference for the comparison. To this end, simulation results from a range of dam break laboratory experiments were analyzed, encompassing varying numbers of floating objects with distinct characteristics, both in the presence and absence of ICS, and under different downstream water levels. The results show that the overall accuracy of the FLOW-3D model under various experimental conditions resulted in a RMSE of 0.0534 as opposed to an overall RMSE of 0.0599 for the meshless methods. Instabilities were observed in the FLOW-3D model for more complex phenomena that involve open boundaries and a larger number of blocks. Although the FLOW-3D model exhibited a similar computational time to the GPU-accelerated meshless-based models, constraints on the processors speed and the number of cores available for use by the processors could limit the computational time.

    Consulter sur www.mdpi.com
  • Durnford, D., Fortin, V., Smith, G. C., Archambault, B., Deacu, D., Dupont, F., Dyck, S., Martinez, Y., Klyszejko, E., MacKay, M., Liu, L., Pellerin, P., Pietroniro, A., Roy, F., Vu, V.-D., Winter, B., Yu, W., Spence, C., Bruxer, J., & Dickhout, J. (2017). Toward an Operational Water Cycle Prediction System for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(3). https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0155.1

    AbstractIn this time of a changing climate, it is important to know whether lake levels will rise, potentially causing flooding, or river flows will dry up during abnormally dry weather. The Great Lakes region is the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Moreover, agriculture, industry, commerce, and shipping are active in this densely populated region. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) recently implemented the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) over the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed (WCPS-GLS version 1.0) following a decade of research and development. WCPS, a network of linked models, simulates the complete water cycle, following water as it moves from the atmosphere to the surface, through the river network and into lakes, and back to the atmosphere. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models. WCPS is the first short-to-medium-range prediction system of the complete water cycle to be run on an operational basis anywhere. It currently produces ...

  • Di Baldassarre, G., Cloke, H., Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mondino, E., Mård, J., Odongo, V., Raffetti, E., Ridolfi, E., Rusca, M., Savelli, E., & Tootoonchi, F. (2021). Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human‐Water Systems. AGU Advances, 2(3), e2021AV000473. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000473

    Abstract Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human‐water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy‐relevant science. , Plain Language Summary Several governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID‐19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods. , Key Points Accounting for both power relations and cognitive heuristics is key to unravel the interplay of floods, droughts and human societies Flood and drought predictions are complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with uncertainty and develop policy‐relevant science

    Consulter sur agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
  • Desai, S., & Ouarda, T. B. M. J. (2020). Regional hydrological frequency analysis at ungauged sites with random forest regression. Journal of Hydrology, 594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125861

    Abstract Flood quantile estimation at sites with little or no data is important for the adequate planning and management of water resources. Regional Hydrological Frequency Analysis (RFA) deals with the estimation of hydrological variables at ungauged sites. Random Forest (RF) is an ensemble learning technique which uses multiple Classification and Regression Trees (CART) for classification, regression, and other tasks. The RF technique is gaining popularity in a number of fields because of its powerful non-linear and non-parametric nature. In the present study, we investigate the use of Random Forest Regression (RFR) in the estimation step of RFA based on a case study represented by data collected from 151 hydrometric stations from the province of Quebec, Canada. RFR is applied to the whole data set and to homogeneous regions of stations delineated by canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Using the Out-of-bag error rate feature of RF, the optimal number of trees for the dataset is calculated. The results of the application of the CCA based RFR model (CCA-RFR) are compared to results obtained with a number of other linear and non-linear RFA models. CCA-RFR leads to the best performance in terms of root mean squared error. The use of CCA to delineate neighborhoods improves considerably the performance of RFR. RFR is found to be simple to apply and more efficient than more complex models such as Artificial Neural Network-based models.

  • Champagne, O., Arain, A., Wang, S., & Leduc, M. (2023). Future change in amplitude and timing of high-flow events in a Canadian subarctic watershed. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103807

    The Hudson Bay basin is a large contributor of freshwater input in the Arctic Ocean and is also an area affected by destructive spring floods. In this study, the hydrological model MESH (Modelisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and hydrology) was set up for the Groundhog River watershed situated in the Hudson Bay basin, to simulate the future evolution of streamflow and annual maximum streamflow. MESH was forced by meteorological data from ERA5 reanalyses in the historical period (1979–2018) and 12 models of the Coupled model intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) downscaled with the Canadian Regional Climate model version 5 (CRCM5) in historical (1979–2005) and scenario period (2006–2098). The projections consistently indicate an earlier spring flow and a reduction in the amount of annual maximum streamflow by the end of the 21st century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the annual maximum streamflow occurring in the spring is expected to be advanced by 2 weeks and reduced on average from 852 m3/s (±265) in the historical period (1979–2018) to 717m3/s (±250) by the end of the 21st century (2059–2098). Because the seasonal projection of streamflow was not investigated in previous studies, this work is an important first step to assess the seasonal change of streamflow in the Hudson Bay region under climate change.

    Consulter sur www.sciencedirect.com
  • Champagne, O., Arain, M. A., Wang, S., Leduc, M., & Russell, H. A. J. (2021). Interdecadal variability of streamflow in the Hudson Bay Lowlands watersheds driven by atmospheric circulation. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100868

    Study region Hudson Bay Lowlands watersheds, Ontario, Canada. Study Focus The rivers in the Hudson Bay Lowlands are a major source of freshwater entering the Arctic Ocean and they also cause major floods. In recent decades, this region has been affected by major changes in hydroclimatic processes attributed to climate change and natural climate variability. In this study, we used ERA5 reanalysis data, hydrometric observations, and the hydrological model MESH, to investigate the impact of atmospheric circulation on the inter-decadal variability of streamflow between 1979 and 2018 in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. The natural climate variability was assessed using a weather regimes approach based on the discretization of daily geopotential height anomalies (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis, as well as large scale oceanic and atmospheric variability modes. New hydrological insights The results showed an anomalous convergence of atmospheric moisture flux between 1995–2008 that enhanced precipitation and increased streamflow in the western part of the region. This moisture convergence was likely driven by the combination of (i) low pressure anomalies in the East Coast of North America and (ii) low pressure anomalies in western regions of Canada, associated with the cold phase of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Since 2009, streamflow remains high, likely due to more groundwater discharge associated with the degradation of permafrost.

    Consulter sur www.sciencedirect.com
  • Champagne, O., Arain, M. A., Leduc, M., Coulibaly, P., & McKenzie, S. (2020). Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by the internal variability of climate in southern Ontario. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(6), 3077–3096. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3077-2020

    Fluvial systems in southern Ontario are regularly affected by widespread early-spring flood events primarily caused by rain-on-snow events. Recent studies have shown an increase in winter floods in this region due to increasing winter temperature and precipitation. Streamflow simulations are associated with uncertainties mainly due to the different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, global climate models (GCMs) or the choice of the hydrological model. The internal variability of climate, defined as the chaotic variability of atmospheric circulation due to natural internal processes within the climate system, is also a source of uncertainties to consider. Uncertainties of internal variability can be assessed using hydrological models fed by downscaled data of a global climate model large ensemble (GCM-LE), but GCM outputs have too coarse of a scale to be used in hydrological modeling. The Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE), a 50-member ensemble downscaled from the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CanESM2-LE), was developed to simulate local climate variability over northeastern North America under different future climate scenarios. In this study, CRCM5-LE temperature and precipitation projections under an RCP8.5 scenario were used as input in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to simulate streamflow at a near-future horizon (2026–2055) for four watersheds in southern Ontario. To investigate the role of the internal variability of climate in the modulation of streamflow, the 50 members were first grouped in classes of similar projected change in January–February streamflow and temperature and precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2026–2055. Then, the regional change in geopotential height (Z500) from CanESM2-LE was calculated for each class. Model simulations showed an average January–February increase in streamflow of 18 % (±8.7) in Big Creek, 30.5 % (±10.8) in Grand River, 29.8 % (±10.4) in Thames River and 31.2 % (±13.3) in Credit River. A total of 14 % of all ensemble members projected positive Z500 anomalies in North America's eastern coast enhancing rain, snowmelt and streamflow volume in January–February. For these members the increase of streamflow is expected to be as high as 31.6 % (±8.1) in Big Creek, 48.3 % (±11.1) in Grand River, 47 % (±9.6) in Thames River and 53.7 % (±15) in Credit River. Conversely, 14 % of the ensemble projected negative Z500 anomalies in North America's eastern coast and were associated with a much lower increase in streamflow: 8.3 % (±7.8) in Big Creek, 18.8 % (±5.8) in Grand River, 17.8 % (±6.4) in Thames River and 18.6 % (±6.5) in Credit River. These results provide important information to researchers, managers, policymakers and society about the expected ranges of increase in winter streamflow in a highly populated region of Canada, and they will help to explain how the internal variability of climate is expected to modulate the future streamflow in this region.

    Consulter sur hess.copernicus.org
  • Brigode, P., Brissette, F., Nicault, A., Perreault, L., Kuentz, A., Mathevet, T., & Gailhard, J. (2016). Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis. Climate of The Past, 12(9). https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1785-2016

    Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Quebec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.

  • Tiwari, D., Trudel, M., & Leconte, R. (2023). On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-143

    Abstract. In northern cold-temperate countries, a large portion of annual streamflow is produced by spring snowmelt, which often triggers floods. It is important to have spatial information about snow parameters such as snow water equivalent (SWE), which can be incorporated into hydrological models, making them more efficient tools for improved decision-making. The future Terrestrial Snow Mass Mission (TSMM) aims to provide high-resolution spatially distributed SWE information; thus, spatial SWE calibration should be considered along with conventional streamflow calibration for model optimization since the overall water balance is often a key objective in the hydrological modelling. The present research implements a unique spatial pattern metric in a multi-objective framework for calibration approach of hydrological models and attempts to determine whether raw SNODAS data can be utilized for hydrological model calibration. The SPAtial Efficiency (SPAEF) metric is explored for spatially calibrating SWE. The HYDROTEL hydrological model is applied to the Au Saumon River Watershed (∽1120 km2) in Eastern Canada using MSWEP precipitation data and ERA-5 land reanalysis temperature data as input to generate high-resolution SWE and streamflow. Different calibration experiments are performed combining Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for streamflow and root-mean-square error (RMSE), and SPAEF for SWE, using the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) and Pareto Archived Multi-Objective Optimization (PADDS) algorithms. Results of the study demonstrate that multi-objective calibration outperforms sequential calibration in terms of model performance. Traditional model calibration involving only streamflow produced slightly higher NSE values; however, the spatial distribution of SWE could not be adequately maintained. This study indicates that utilizing SPAEF for spatial calibration of snow parameters improved streamflow prediction compared to the conventional practice of using RMSE for calibration. SPAEF is further implied to be a more effective metric than RMSE for both sequential and multi-objective calibration. During validation, the calibration experiment incorporating multi-objective SPAEF exhibits enhanced performance in terms of NSE and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to calibration experiment solely based on NSE. This observation supports the notion that incorporating SPAEF computed on raw SNODAS data within the calibration framework results in a more robust hydrological model.

    Consulter sur hess.copernicus.org
  • Slater, L. J., Arnal, L., Boucher, M.-A., Chang, A. Y.-Y., Moulds, S., Murphy, C., Nearing, G., Shalev, G., Shen, C., Speight, L., Villarini, G., Wilby, R. L., Wood, A., & Zappa, M. (2023). Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(9). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023

    Abstract. Hybrid hydroclimatic forecasting systems employ data-driven (statistical or machine learning) methods to harness and integrate a broad variety of predictions from dynamical, physics-based models – such as numerical weather prediction, climate, land, hydrology, and Earth system models – into a final prediction product. They are recognized as a promising way of enhancing the prediction skill of meteorological and hydroclimatic variables and events, including rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. Hybrid forecasting methods are now receiving growing attention due to advances in weather and climate prediction systems at subseasonal to decadal scales, a better appreciation of the strengths of AI, and expanding access to computational resources and methods. Such systems are attractive because they may avoid the need to run a computationally expensive offline land model, can minimize the effect of biases that exist within dynamical outputs, benefit from the strengths of machine learning, and can learn from large datasets, while combining different sources of predictability with varying time horizons. Here we review recent developments in hybrid hydroclimatic forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities for further research. These include obtaining physically explainable results, assimilating human influences from novel data sources, integrating new ensemble techniques to improve predictive skill, creating seamless prediction schemes that merge short to long lead times, incorporating initial land surface and ocean/ice conditions, acknowledging spatial variability in landscape and atmospheric forcing, and increasing the operational uptake of hybrid prediction schemes.

    Consulter sur hess.copernicus.org
  • Thompson, H. D., Thériault, J. M., Déry, S. J., Stewart, R. E., Boisvert, D., Rickard, L., Leroux, N. R., Colli, M., & Vionnet, V. (2023). Atmospheric and surface observations during the Saint John River Experiment on Cold Season Storms (SAJESS). https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-59

    Abstract. The amount and phase of cold season precipitation accumulating in the upper Saint John River basin are critical factors in determining spring runoff, ice-jams, and flooding in downstream communities. To study the impact of winter and spring storms on the snowpack in the upper Saint John River (SJR) basin, the Saint John River Experiment on Cold Season Storms (SAJESS) utilized meteorological instrumentation, upper air soundings, human observations, and hydrometeor macrophotography during winter/spring 2020–21. Here, we provide an overview of the SAJESS study area, field campaign, and existing data networks surrounding the upper SJR basin. Initially, meteorological instrumentation was co-located with an Environment and Climate Change Canada station near Edmundston, New Brunswick, in early December 2020. This was followed by an intensive observation period that involved manual observations, upper-air soundings, a multi-angle snowflake camera, macrophotography of solid hydrometeors, and advanced automated instrumentation throughout March and April 2021. The resulting datasets include optical disdrometer size and velocity distributions of hydrometeors, micro rain radar output, near-surface meteorological observations, and wind speed, temperature, pressure and precipitation amounts from a K63 Hotplate precipitation gauge, the first one operating in Canada. These data are publicly available from the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/103.0591 (Thompson et al., 2022). We also include a synopsis of the data management plan and data processing, and a brief assessment of the rewards and challenges of utilizing community volunteers for hydro-meteorological citizen science.

    Consulter sur essd.copernicus.org
  • Whittaker, C., & Leconte, R. (2022). A Hydrograph-Based Approach to Improve Satellite-Derived Snow Water Equivalent at the Watershed Scale. Water, 14(21). https://doi.org/10.3390/w14213575

    For the past few decades, remote sensing has been a valuable tool for deriving global information on snow water equivalent (SWE), where products derived from space-borne passive microwave radiometers are favoured as they respond to snow depth, an important component of SWE. GlobSnow, a novel SWE product, has increased the accuracy of global-scale SWE estimates by combining remotely sensed radiometric data with other physiographic characteristics, such as snow depth, as quantified by climatic stations. However, research has demonstrated that passive microwaves algorithms tend to underestimate SWE for deep snowpack. Approaches were proposed to correct for such underestimation; however, they are computer intensive and complex to implement at the watershed scale. In this study, SWEmax information from the near real time 5-km GlobSnow product, provided by Copernicus and the European Space Agency (ESA) and GlobSnow product at 25 km resolution were corrected using a simple bias correction approach for watershed scale applications. This method, referred to as the Watershed Scale Correction (WSC) approach, estimates the bias based on the direct runoff that occurs during the spring melt season. Direct runoff is estimated on the one hand from SWEmax information as main input. Infiltration is also considered in computing direct runoff. An independent estimation of direct runoff from gauged stations is also performed. Discrepancy between these estimates allows for estimating the bias correction factor. This approach is advantageous as it exploits data that commonly exists i.e., flow at gauged stations and remotely sensed/reanalysis data such as snow cover and precipitation. The WSC approach was applied to watersheds located in Eastern Canada. It was found that the average bias moved from 33.5% with existing GlobSnow product to 18% with the corrected product, using the recommended recursive filter coefficient β of 0.925 for baseflow separation. Results show the usefulness of integrating direct runoff for bias correction of existing GlobSnow product at the watershed scale. In addition, potential benefits are offered using the recursive filter approach for baseflow separation of watersheds with limited in situ SWE measurements, to further reduce overall uncertainties and bias. The WSC approach should be appealing for poorly monitored watersheds where SWE measurements are critical for hydropower production and where snowmelt can pose serious flood-related damages.

    Consulter sur www.mdpi.com
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