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Climate anomalies, such as floods and droughts, as well as gradual temperature changes have been shown to adversely affect economies and societies. Although studies find that climate change might increase global inequality by widening disparities across countries, its effects on within-country income distribution have been little investigated, as has the role of rainfall anomalies. Here, we show that extreme levels of precipitation exacerbate within-country income inequality. The strength and direction of the effect depends on the agricultural intensity of an economy. In high-agricultural-intensity countries, climate anomalies that negatively impact the agricultural sector lower incomes at the bottom end of the distribution and generate greater income inequality. Our results indicate that a 1.5-SD increase in precipitation from average values has a 35-times-stronger impact on the bottom income shares for countries with high employment in agriculture compared to countries with low employment in the agricultural sector. Projections with modeled future precipitation and temperature reveal highly heterogeneous patterns on a global scale, with income inequality worsening in high-agricultural-intensity economies, particularly in Africa. Our findings suggest that rainfall anomalies and the degree of dependence on agriculture are crucial factors in assessing the negative impacts of climate change on the bottom of the income distribution.

Adapting to some level of climate change has become unavoidable. However, there is surprisingly limited systematic knowledge about whether and how adaptation policies have diffused and could diffuse in the future. Most existing adaptation studies do not explicitly examine policy diffusion, which is a form of interdependent policy-making among jurisdictions at the same or across different levels of governance. To address this gap, we offer a new interpretation and assessment of the extensive adaptation policy literature through a policy diffusion perspective; we pay specific attention to diffusion drivers and barriers, motivations, mechanisms, outputs, and outcomes. We assess the extent to which four motivations and related mechanisms of policy diffusion—interests (linked with learning and competition), rights and duties (tied to coercion), ideology, and recognition (both connected with emulation)—are conceptually and empirically associated with adaptation. We also engage with adaptation policy characteristics, contextual conditions (e.g., problem severity) and different channels of adapation policy diffusion (e.g., transnational networks). We demonstrate that adaptation policy diffusion can be associated with different mechanisms, yet many of them remain remarkably understudied. So are the effects of adaptation policy diffusion in terms of changes in vulnerability and resilience. We thus identify manifold avenues for future research, and provide insights for practitioners who may hope to leverage diffusion mechanisms to enhance their adaptation efforts. This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation

Abstract Analyzing intra-annual stream flow can reveal the main causes for runoff changes and the contributions of climate variability and human activities. For this purpose, the Mann–Kendall and cumulative rank difference (CRD) tests, and the double mass curve method, were applied to a time series of hydro-meteorological variables from 1971 to 2010 in the Tajan River basin in Iran. Results indicated that runoff changes in the wet and dry seasons after 1999 had significant respective decreasing and increasing trends, at the 0.01 confidence level, due to dam construction. In the pre-dam period (1991–1998), the results of the double mass curve method showed that climate variability and human activities contributed 57.76% and 42.24%, respectively, to the runoff decrease during the wet season. For the post-dam period (1999–2010), climate variability and anthropogenic activities contributed 24.68% and 75.32%, respectively, to the wet season runoff decrease of 116.55 mm. On the other hand, in the same period during the dry season, climate variability contributed −30.68% and human activities contributed 130.68% to the runoff increase of 41.45 mm. It is evident that runoff changes in both wet and dry seasons were mainly due to human activities associated with dam construction to meet water supply demands for agriculture.

Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec,...

Extreme rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations have been commonly used for estimating the design storm for the design of various urban water infrastructures. In recent years, climate change has been recognized as having a profound impact on the hydrologic cycle. Hence, the derivation of IDF relations in the context of a changing climate has been recognized as one of the most challenging tasks in current engineering practice. The main challenge is how to establish the linkages between the climate projections given by climate models at the global or regional scales and the observed extreme rainfalls at a local site of interest. Therefore, our overall objective is to introduce a new statistical modeling approach to linking global or regional climate predictors to the observed daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes at a given location. Illustrative applications using climate simulations from 21 different global climate models and extreme rainfall data available from rain gauge networks located across Canada are presented to indicate the feasibility, accuracy, and robustness of the proposed modeling approach for assessing the climate change impact on IDF relations.

Purpose Few people living in informal settlements in the Global South spontaneously claim that they are “resilient” or “adapting” to disaster risk or climate change. Surely, they often overcome multiple challenges, including natural hazards exacerbated by climate change. Yet their actions are increasingly examined through the framework of resilience, a notion developed in the North, and increasingly adopted in the South. To what extent eliminate’ do these initiatives correspond to the concepts that scholars and authorities place under the resilience framework? Design/methodology/approach Three longitudinal case studies in Yumbo, Salgar and San Andrés (Colombia) serve to investigate narratives of disaster risks and responses to them. Methods include narrative analysis from policy and project documents, presentations, five workshops, six focus groups and 24 interviews. Findings The discourse adopted by most international scholars and local authorities differs greatly from that used by citizens to explain risk and masks the politics involved in disaster reduction and the search for social justice. Besides, narratives of social change, aspirations and social status are increasingly masked in disaster risk explanations. Tensions are also concealed, including those regarding the winners and losers of interventions and the responsibilities for disaster risk reduction. Originality/value Our findings confirm previous results that have shown that the resilience framework contributes to “depoliticize” the analysis of risk and serves to mask and dilute the responsibility of political and economic elites in disaster risk creation. But they also show that resilience fails to explain the type of socioeconomic change that is required to reduce vulnerabilities in Latin America.

The climate crisis not only has significant impacts on biodiversity and the physical health of humans, but its ramifications are also affecting people’s mental health. Eco-anxiety, or the emotions that emerge with the awareness of climate change and the apprehension of its detrimental effects, has been investigated in adults and adolescents, but much less attention has been given to the impacts on children’s mental health and well-being. Initial evidence confirms that youth are significantly concerned about climate change, but few studies have investigated the resulting emotional responses of children and the role of their parents in tempering these, especially using qualitative methodologies. The present study used a descriptive qualitative design with a convenience sample of parents and child dyads, assessed separately. Children’s ( n = 15, ages 8–12 years) experiences were explored using semi-structured interviews and their parents’ ( n = 12) perceptions were captured using a survey with closed and open-ended questions. A reflexive thematic analysis was used to analyze the interview data, and content analysis was used to investigate parent-child experiences. Three themes emerged from the thematic analysis: 1. children’s understanding of climate change, 2. their emotional reaction to climate change, and 3. their coping mechanisms to deal with these emotions. The comparative content analysis revealed that parents who were aware that their children had concerns about climate change, had children who used more adaptive coping mechanisms. The results of this qualitative study contribute to a better understanding of children’s emotional experience of the awareness of climate change in Canada and how they cope with these emotions. Furthermore, the results provide insight into the role parents might play in helping their children cope with their feelings.

Abstract Extreme precipitation events can have a significant impact on the environment, agriculture, economy and safety, making close monitoring of their short‐ and long‐term trends essential for the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this study, we analysed 16 in situ observation datasets from four different climate zones in Algeria, spanning from 1969 to 2021. The trend analysis was conducted using the original Mann–Kendall test and seven modified tests to eliminate the effects of short‐term persistence. Our findings reveal a significant increasing trend of extreme precipitation variability for most stations in the Warm Mediterranean climate zone, except for the Consecutive dry days index, which showed a negative trend for the same zone, while stations in the Cold/Warm semi‐arid climate and Cold desert climate (Bwk) zones showed a decreasing trend. Additionally, all index series with significant long‐term trends were affected by a significant shift in their means, which was confirmed by both the Lombard and Pettitt tests. However, when we used the modified MPT and the test eliminating the effects of long‐term persistence, the significance of the shifts and the trend decreased. Our results suggest that while extreme precipitation events have been increasing in some parts of Algeria; the trend may not be statistically significant in the long‐run, indicating the necessity of revisiting and refreshing the findings of previous studies for a more current perspective.

Background Given the important role that municipalities must play in adapting to climate change, it is more than ever essential to measure their progress in this area. However, measuring municipalities’ adaptation progress presents its share of difficulties especially when it comes to comparing (on similar dimensions and over time) the situation of different municipal entities and to linking adaptation impacts to local actions. Longitudinal studies with recurring indicators could capture changes occurring over time, but the development of such indicators requires great emphasis on methodological and psychometric aspects, such as measurement validity. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate an index of adaptation to heatwaves and flooding at the level of municipal urbanists and urban planners. Methods A sample of 139 officers working in urbanism and urban planning for municipal entities in the province of Quebec (Canada) completed an online questionnaire. Developed based on a literature review and consultation of representatives from the municipal sector, the questionnaire measured whether the respondent’s municipal entity did or did not adopt the behaviors that are recommended in the scientific and gray literature to adapt to heatwaves and flooding. Results Results of the various metrological analyses (indicator reliability analysis, first order confirmatory factor analysis, concurrent validity analysis, and nomological validity assessment analysis) confirmed the validity of the index developed to measure progress in climate change adaptation at the municipal level. The first dimension of the index corresponds to preliminary measures that inform and prepare stakeholders for action (i.e., groundwork adaptation initiatives), whereas the second refers to measures that aim to concretely reduce vulnerability to climate change, to improve the adaptive capacity or the resilience of human and natural systems (i.e., adaptation actions). Conclusion The results of a series of psychometric analyses showed that the index has good validity and could properly measure the adoption of actions to prepare for adaptation as well as adaptation actions per se. Municipal and government officials can therefore consider using it to monitor and evaluate adaptation efforts at the municipal level.

Summary Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

Abstract Climatic disaster impacts, such as loss of human life as its most severe consequence, have been rising globally. Several studies argue that population growth is responsible for the rise, and the role of climate change is not evident. While disaster mortality is highest in low-income countries, existing studies focus mostly on developed countries. Here we address this impact attribution question in the context of the Global South using disaster-specific mixed-effects regression models. We show that the rise in landslide and flood mortality in a low-income country such as Nepal between 1992-2021 is primarily attributable to increased precipitation extremes. An increase in one standardized unit in maximum one-day precipitation increases flood mortality by 33%, and heavy rain days increase landslide mortality by 45%. Similarly, a one-unit increase in per capita income decreases landslide and flood mortality by 30% and 45%, respectively. Population density does not show significant effects.