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Rechercher

Cette section affiche vos critères de recherche courants et vous permet de soumettre des mots-clés à chercher dans la bibliographie.

  • Chaque nouvelle soumission ajoute les mots-clés saisis à la liste des critères de recherche.
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    • Dans tous les champs : repère vos mots-clés dans tous les champs des notices bibliographiques.
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    • OU : repère les références qui contiennent n’importe lequel des termes fournis. Par exemple, a OU b.
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    • Les opérateurs booléens doivent être saisis en MAJUSCULES.
  • Vous pouvez faire des groupements logiques (avec les parenthèses) pour éviter les ambiguïtés lors de la combinaison de plusieurs opérateurs booléens. Par exemple, (a OU b) ET c.
  • Vous pouvez demander une séquence exacte de mots (avec les guillemets droits), par exemple "a b c". Par défaut la différence entre les positions des mots est de 1, ce qui signifie qu’une référence sera repérée si elle contient les mots et qu’ils sont consécutifs. Une distance maximale différente peut être fournie (avec le tilde), par exemple "a b"~2 permet jusqu’à un terme entre a et b, ce qui signifie que la séquence a c b pourrait être repérée aussi bien que a b.
  • Vous pouvez préciser que certains termes sont plus importants que d’autres (avec l’accent circonflexe). Par exemple, a^2 b c^0.5 indique que a est deux fois plus important que b dans le calcul de pertinence des résultats, tandis que c est de moitié moins important. Ce type de facteur peut être appliqué à un groupement logique, par exemple (a b)^3 c.
  • La recherche par mots-clés est insensible à la casse et les accents et la ponctuation sont ignorés.
  • Les terminaisons des mots sont amputées pour la plupart des champs, tels le titre, le résumé et les notes. L’amputation des terminaisons vous évite d’avoir à prévoir toutes les formes possibles d’un mot dans vos recherches. Ainsi, les termes municipal, municipale et municipaux, par exemple, donneront tous le même résultat. L’amputation des terminaisons n’est pas appliquée au texte des champs de noms, tels auteurs/contributeurs, éditeur, publication.

Explorer

Cette section vous permet d’explorer les catégories associées aux références.

  • Les catégories peuvent servir à affiner votre recherche. Cochez une catégorie pour l’ajouter à vos critères de recherche. Les résultats seront alors restreints aux références qui sont associées à cette catégorie.
  • Dé-cochez une catégorie pour la retirer de vos critères de recherche et élargir votre recherche.
  • Les nombres affichés à côté des catégories indiquent combien de références sont associées à chaque catégorie considérant les résultats de recherche courants. Ces nombres varieront en fonction de vos critères de recherche, de manière à toujours décrire le jeu de résultats courant. De même, des catégories et des facettes entières pourront disparaître lorsque les résultats de recherche ne contiennent aucune référence leur étant associées.
  • Une icône de flèche () apparaissant à côté d’une catégorie indique que des sous-catégories sont disponibles. Vous pouvez appuyer sur l’icône pour faire afficher la liste de ces catégories plus spécifiques. Par la suite, vous pouvez appuyer à nouveau pour masquer la liste. L’action d’afficher ou de masquer les sous-catégories ne modifie pas vos critères de recherche; ceci vous permet de rapidement explorer l’arborescence des catégories, si désiré.

Résultats

Cette section présente les résultats de recherche. Si aucun critère de recherche n’a été fourni, elle montre toute la bibliographie (jusqu’à 20 références par page).

  • Chaque référence de la liste des résultats est un hyperlien vers sa notice bibliographique complète. À partir de la notice, vous pouvez continuer à explorer les résultats de recherche en naviguant vers les notices précédentes ou suivantes de vos résultats de recherche, ou encore retourner à la liste des résultats.
  • Des hyperliens supplémentaires, tels que Consulter le document ou Consulter sur [nom d’un site web], peuvent apparaître sous un résultat de recherche. Ces liens vous fournissent un accès rapide à la ressource, des liens que vous trouverez également dans la notice bibliographique.
  • Le bouton Résumés vous permet d’activer ou de désactiver l’affichage des résumés dans la liste des résultats de recherche. Toutefois, activer l’affichage des résumés n’aura aucun effet sur les résultats pour lesquels aucun résumé n’est disponible.
  • Diverses options sont fournies pour permettre de contrôler l’ordonnancement les résultats de recherche. L’une d’elles est l’option de tri par Pertinence, qui classe les résultats du plus pertinent au moins pertinent. Le score utilisé à cette fin prend en compte la fréquence des mots ainsi que les champs dans lesquels ils apparaissent. Par exemple, si un terme recherché apparaît fréquemment dans une référence ou est l’un d’un très petit nombre de termes utilisé dans cette référence, cette référence aura probablement un score plus élevé qu’une autre où le terme apparaît moins fréquemment ou qui contient un très grand nombre de mots. De même, le score sera plus élevé si un terme est rare dans l’ensemble de la bibliographie que s’il est très commun. De plus, si un terme de recherche apparaît par exemple dans le titre d’une référence, le score de cette référence sera plus élevé que s’il apparaissait dans un champ moins important tel le résumé.
  • Le tri par Pertinence n’est disponible qu’après avoir soumis des mots-clés par le biais de la section Rechercher.
  • Les catégories sélectionnées dans la section Explorer n’ont aucun effet sur le tri par pertinence. Elles ne font que filtrer la liste des résultats.
Types d'événements extrêmes
  • Inondations et crues

Résultats 724 ressources

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Résumés
  • Monckeberg, E., & Gómez, S. (2025). Exploring the potential of coastal cities to address climate change towards an inclusive, equitable and politically engaged orientation. Anthropocene Coasts, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44218-025-00099-5

    In the context of the global climate crisis, the analysis and strengthening of adaptive capacities in coastal urban environments has become imperative. Nearly 40% of the global population lives within 100 km of the coastline, making them critical research hotspots due to their particular vulnerability. This qualitative literature review takes a transdisciplinary approach and prioritizes research that addresses specific challenges and solutions for these vulnerable environments, with an emphasis on resilience to phenomena such as sea level rise, flooding and extreme weather events. The review analyzes articles that offer a holistic view, encompassing green and blue infrastructures, community needs and governance dynamics. It highlights studies that propose innovative strategies to foster citizen participation and explicitly address aspects such as climate justice. By synthesizing interdisciplinary perspectives and local knowledge, this review aims to provide a comprehensive framework for climate adaptation in coastal urban areas. The findings have the potential to inform public policy and urban planning practices. © The Author(s) 2025.

  • Zhekov, A., Bourgeois, B., & Poulin, M. (2025). Flooding stress influences productivity and modulates biodiversity effects in experimental grassland communities, shaping biodiversity–productivity relationships. American Journal of Botany, 112(7), e70063. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.70063

    Abstract Premise Biodiversity loss and increasing extreme weather events disrupt the functioning of ecosystems and thus their ability to provide services. While the interplay among various climatic constraints, diversity and productivity has received increasing attention in the last decades, the role of flooding has been overlooked. Methods In a greenhouse experiment, we manipulated species richness and water regimes to evaluate the influence of flooding on species diversity–productivity relationships. We measured biomass production and partitioned net biodiversity effects into complementarity and selection effects. To link changes in biodiversity effects to underlying mechanisms, we evaluated the contribution of species richness, species identity, functional diversity and community‐level traits. Results Under flooding, biomass production decreased, and biodiversity effects were less frequently positive. By reducing the incidence of positive complementarity effects, flooding promoted a preponderance of selection effects. Flooding further favored competitive displacement by Phalaris arundinacea ; balanced contributions to selection effects from all functional groups at field capacity subsided under flooding when P. arundinacea became the single dominant species. As a result, its acquisitive leaf trait attributes contributed more to selection effects and biomass production under flooding, while root traits contributed less to complementarity effects at field capacity. Conclusions As an environmental stressor, flooding promoted the dominance of tolerant species and reduced the incidence of complementary species interactions in the experimental plant communities, clearly modulating the linkage between diversity and productivity.

    Consulter sur bsapubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
  • Poncet, N., Tramblay, Y., Lucas-Picher, P., Thirel, G., & Caillaud, C. (2025). Projections of extreme rainfall and floods in Mediterranean basins from an ensemble of convection-permitting models. Climatic Change, 178(8), 141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03983-8

    Floods have major impacts on the Mediterranean region, but little is currently known about their potential evolution in the context of climate change. This is due in particular to the limited ability of climate models to reproduce extreme meteorological events such as heavy rains that lead to flash floods, especially at the local scale over smaller basins. This study is the first to explore future flood scenarios over 12 Mediterranean basins using an ensemble of 12 high-resolution convection-permitting climate models and the GR5H hourly rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate an overall increase in flood intensity across all basins, particularly for the most severe events, but also a strong spatial variability in the change signal depending on the geographic location. There is good agreement among the convection-permitting climate models on an increase in hourly and daily rainfall extremes in the Mediterranean, but these changes are not strongly correlated with changes in flood-peak intensity, indicating that change in rainfall intensity alone is a poor predictor of future flood hazards. At present, this type of analysis is hampered by the short duration of the available high-resolution climate simulations. Longer timeseries would be required to better assess the robustness of the projected changes against climate variability.

    Consulter sur doi.org
  • Baruah, A., Spies, R., Devi, D., Cohen, S., Aristizabal, F., Nikrou, P., Tian, D., & Pruitt, C. (2025). Predicting synthetic rating curve adjustment factors with explainable machine learning for enhancing the United States operational flood inundation mapping framework. Journal of Hydrology, 662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134086

    The increasing threats of global flood risk mandate rapid and accurate high-resolution flood modeling strategies over large scales. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Water Prediction (OWP) has operationalised a Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) framework utilising the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)-Synthetic Rating Curve (SRC) approach. It translates streamflow into stage and subsequently maps the inundation over the floodplain. It is a low-fidelity FIM framework, suitable for large-scale applications with much less computational effort. The SRCs are calculated for each river segment using Manning's equation; however, uncertainty in Manning's parameters and missing bathymetry impart bias in SRC calculation, and thus in FIM. An SRC adjustment factor (λsrc), introduced by OWP, calibrates SRCs against USGS rating curves, HEC-RAS 1D rating curves, and National Weather Service (NWS)-Categorical Flood Inundation Mapping (CatFIM) locations. Adjusted SRCs improve the FIM predictions but are limited to locations with the above data sources. In this paper, we develop machine learning models to predict the λsrc over the entire United States river network. Results show that the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model yielded the strongest predictability, with an R2 of 0.70. The impact of λsrc on FIM predictions is evaluated for Hurricane Matthew in North Carolina and synthetic flood events in 15 watersheds. For Hurricane Matthew flooding, the mean percentage improvements in Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), and F1 Score are 17.5%, 20% and 12.5%, while for synthetic events, the improvements are 2.59%, 4.93%, and 3.03%, respectively. © 2025 The Author(s)

  • Li, Q., Xia, J., Xu, Z., Liang, D., & Hinkelmann, R. (2025). Agent-based vulnerability model for pedestrians exposed to urban floodwaters. Journal of Hydrology, 662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134058

    Climate change-induced floods will have a profound impact on densely populated urban areas. The survey results indicate that a substantial proportion of respondents engaged in evacuation behavior during urban flooding events. However, current assessment methods may underestimate the impact of human motions in floodwaters on pedestrian evacuation safety. To quantitively study the dynamic vulnerability of individuals exposed to flooding scenarios, an agent-based vulnerability model was proposed based on mechanics modelling and experimentally calibrating. A full-scale physical testing platform was constructed and utilized to calibrate the proposed model and to determine the stability limits of pedestrian safety in floodwaters. Spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of pedestrians were analyzed and results reveal significant variations in pedestrian movement and stability. The general temporal trend of movement speed changing as a power function of the specific flood force has been validated. It is also found that pedestrian stability is notably affected by movement in floodwaters, particularly when walking against the flow, which intensifies the risk of instability, leading to vulnerability indices that increase by 123.2 % at a depth of 0.3 m and by 82.7 % at 0.5 m compared to still-water conditions. In contrast, moving with the flow reduces hydrodynamic forces, although the rate of this reduction decreases with greater water depths, dropping to 16.0 % at 0.5 m and 9.7 % at 0.7 m. Additionally, this work provides guidelines for assessing pedestrian evacuation vulnerability that enhances evacuation safety and supports flood management. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

  • Razavi-Termeh, S. V., Sadeghi-Niaraki, A., Ali, F., Pradhan, B., & Choi, S.-M. (2025). Optimizing ensemble learning for satellite-based multi-hazard monitoring and susceptibility assessment of landslides, land subsidence, floods, and wildfires. Scientific Reports, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15381-2

    The preparation of accurate multi-hazard susceptibility maps is essential to effective disaster risk management. Past studies have relied mainly on traditional machine learning models, but these models do not perform well for complex spatial patterns. To address this gap, this study uses two meta-heuristic algorithms (Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)) to provide an optimized Random Forest (RF) model with better predictive ability. We focus on four significant hazards—landslides, land subsidence, wildfires, and floods—in Kurdistan Province, Iran, using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery collected between 2015 and 2022. Furthermore, two models of RF-GA and RF-PSO were utilized to create multi-hazard susceptibility, which were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC). The RF-GA algorithm achieved 91.1% accuracy for flood hazards, 83.8% for wildfires, and 99.1% for landslide hazards. In contrast, utilizing RF-PSO resulted in a 95.9% accuracy for land subsidence hazards. The combined RF-GA algorithm demonstrated superior accuracy to individual RF modeling techniques. Furthermore, eastern regions are more prone to floods and land subsidence, whereas western areas face more significant risks from landslides and wildfires. Additionally, floods and land subsidence exhibit a considerable correlation, impacting each other’s occurrence, while wildfires and landslides demonstrate interacting dynamics, influencing each other’s likelihood of occurrence. © The Author(s) 2025.

  • Chengu, S., Assen, M., & Gebeyehu, E. (2025). Multi-criteria decision analysis for flood hazard mapping in the Itang watershed, lower Baro-Akobo Basin, Southwest Ethiopia. Discover Environment, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-025-00289-5

    Flooding remains a critical hydrological hazard in the Itang watershed within the Lower Baro-Akobo Basin, requiring an in-depth assessment of flood susceptibility. This study employs a multi-criteria evaluation method, integrating key geospatial and hydrological parameters such as topographic slope, elevation, land use/land cover, River proximity, drainage network density, precipitation intensity, and soil properties. Utilizing a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach within the ArcMap 10.3.1 environment, a flood hazard zonation map was generated, classifying the watershed into five risk categories: Very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The findings reveal that approximately 69.69% of the watershed falls within the high to very high flood risk zones, predominantly influenced by low-lying Elevation, gentle slopes, proximity to the river, land cover dynamics, high drainage density, and precipitation variability. These insights emphasize the necessity of integrating robust flood mitigation measures, early warning mechanisms, and sustainable watershed management interventions to enhance flood resilience and reduce hydrological risks in the study watershed. © The Author(s) 2025.

  • Hu, X., Yang, A., Wu, S., & Tong, R. (2025). Black swans to gray rhinos: Robust decision making for Natech scenarios caused by floods. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105755

    Industrial facilities and critical infrastructure are affected by natural disasters with increasing probability, potentially resulting in serious health impacts, environmental pollution, and economic losses. Deep uncertainty about future scenarios leads to under-adaptation due to the inability of existing knowledge to cope with ambiguity and complexity. With scientific constraints, particularly in model limitations and scenario scarcity, estimating the likelihood of risk events and possible implications is challenging and error-prone. Using systems thinking to guide scenario planning, a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model of Natech risk was developed to outline the uncertainty involved in the full course of the Natech event in this paper. Taking the flood-triggered Natech risks as an example, a robust decision-making (RDM) framework was adopted to analyze the impacts of future extreme rainfall scenarios on the city. Obtaining future rainfall scenarios through screening and quantitative analysis of uncertainties and their intervals of variability under the impact of climate change. By evaluating urban disaster curves that may be triggered in the future, an interpretive structural model (ISM) of the future urban response to the Natech accident scenario was constructed, and prioritized adaptation paths were selected to enhance urban resilience. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

  • Cao, F., Chen, C., Zhang, C., & Xing, J. (2025). Risk identification and prevention of multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills. Progress in Disaster Science, 28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100458

    Amid increasing extreme weather events driven by global climate change, pre-emptive emergency drills are vital for strengthening disaster resilience. This paper focuses on risk identification and prevention in multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills, aiming to achieve effective risk management across administrative levels. Through literature review and expert consultation, 24 risk factors were hierarchically identified. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed by integrating the risk matrix and cloud model eigenvalues. The results show that risks are the most serious at municipal-level drills, with 20 risk factors (79.17 % of the total) at Level-III and above, decreasing at lower administrative levels (where risk level are categorized into Level-I (Major), Level-II (Large), Level-III (General), and Level-IV (Low) based on the risk matrix integrating likelihood and consequence levels, and Level-III and above risks may trigger resource wastage, drill failure, or even personnel casualties). Temporally, 39 risk factors at Level-III and above were concentrated in preparation stages across all administrative levels, declining to 3 such risk factors during rectification stage. Spatially, the number of risk factors peaked during the municipal-level and county-level preparation stages (11 risk factors respectively at Level-III and above), with their quantity gradually decreasing as the administrative level decreases and drill stages advance. Based on these findings, a systematic risk prevention matrix is proposed to offer targeted guidance for multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills in addressing climate change-induced disaster challenges. © 2025 The Authors

  • Wassmer, J., Bryant, S., Schimansky, P., Keegan, L. T., Pregnolato, M., Kurths, J., Marwan, N., & Merz, B. (2025). Unveiling hidden risks in healthcare from flood-induced transportation disruption in Germany. Communications Earth and Environment, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02645-y

    Despite investments in disaster resilience, flooding continues to disrupt healthcare systems, both by limiting access and through failures in the surrounding transportation network. Existing models for mitigation planning often overlook critical dynamics, such as traffic rerouting, particularly at the national scales necessary for effective planning. Here we present a scalable method to identify hospitals at risk of emergency response delays and service disruptions caused by flood-induced traffic impacts. Our approach integrates a regional flood model with a gravity-based traffic model to simulate traffic flow from open-source road data. Our findings reveal hidden risks for hospitals located far from flood zones, showing how flood-related road disruptions and traffic rerouting can reduce access to critical healthcare services. In particular, we found 75 (of 2,475) hospitals at risk of patient surges beyond their regular capacity, driven solely by flood-related traffic disruptions. Of these, a third are more than 10 km from the nearest inundation, suggesting these facilities may be unaware and thus under-prepared — risks that have, until now, remained hidden from assessments. © The Author(s) 2025.

  • Zhang, P., Zhang, C., Zhang, P., Yan, X., & Yang, H. (2025). Optimization of emergency logistics for urban flooding with consideration of rainfall effects. Scientific Reports, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09986-w

    Urban flooding frequently causes significant damage to infrastructure and facilities, leading to critical supply shortages in affected regions. Ensuring rapid and efficient distribution of relief supplies remains a key challenge during disaster response operations. This study proposes a two-stage optimization framework for emergency logistics. First, a supply distribution model is developed by integrating resource scarcity indices and disaster severity indices, optimized through a simulated annealing algorithm. Second, a vehicle routing model accounting for rainfall and dynamic vehicle speeds is established, solved using a hybrid Genetic Simulated Annealing algorithm to enhance computational efficiency. Ultimately, through simulation with randomly generated calculation examples, it was found that for the supply distribution model, the allocation model that takes into account both the resource scarcity index and the disaster index is more suitable for scenarios with an uneven distribution of disaster severity. The results of the model that takes into account the resource scarcity index, disaster index and waiting time index shows an improvement of 4% over the model that doesn’t consider the resource scarcity index. The experimental results show that the proposed methodology not only adapts to varying disaster spatial patterns but also balances efficiency and equity under supply constraints, offering a scalable tool for designing resilient urban flood response systems. © The Author(s) 2025.

  • Alexopoulos, M. J., Iliopoulou, T., Modé, P., Istrati, D., Spyrakos, C. C., Soile, S., Verykokou, S., Ioannidis, C., & Koutsoyiannis, D. (2025). A novel and scalable flood risk assessment framework for cultural heritage based on unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry and multi-scale rain-on-grid hydraulic modeling. Science of the Total Environment, 998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180256

    This study presents a novel multi-scale flood risk assessment framework for cultural heritage sites, applied to the Temple of Apollo, Aegina Island, Greece. Three modeling configurations were developed and compared: (i) an island-wide Rain-on-Grid (RoG) hydraulic model at 5 m resolution, (ii) a site-only model driven by inflows from the island-scale simulation, and (iii) a high-resolution nested model coupling island-scale outputs with centimeter-scale site RoG simulations enabled by UAV photogrammetry. Simulations for 100-, 1000-, and 2000-year return periods revealed strong scale-dependent differences: island-wide inundation extents of 7.3–10.3 km2, site-specific inundation of 2–24 %, and water volumes of 92–1483 m3 depending on the model configuration and return period. Flow velocities remained below 1.0 m/s, indicating low erosive potential but possible material degradation. Limestone deterioration analysis showed 4–10 % compressive strength reduction, 3–9 % elastic modulus decrease, and mass losses of 0.64–26.08 kg after 24-h inundations. The nested approach provided more realistic water volume accumulation over the single-scale model and revealed critical micro-topographic controls on flood behavior. This scalable, built on readily accessible tools (HEC-RAS and UAV), framework supports rapid deployment to heritage sites globally, enabling quantitative risk assessments for adaptation planning and conservation prioritization. © 2025 The Authors

  • Wu, L., Cheng, Y., Su, A., Zhang, B., Wang, Z., Tong, J., Li, M., & Zhang, A. (2025). Multiscale semantic segmentation and damage assessment of village houses in post-flood scenarios using an enhanced DeepLabv3 with dual attention mechanism. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2025.103759

    Floods can cause varying degrees of damage to village houses, and rapid assessment of houses damage is crucial for post-disaster safety evaluations. To address this issue, the paper proposes a DeepLabv3-Dual Attention (DDA) model incorporating improved ResNet-50, Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP), Selective Kernel(SK)-Attention, and Self-Attention mechanisms. In the DDA model, the ASPP structure is enhanced with Self-Attention, while the backbone network employs SK-Attention improved ResNet-50, enabling more effective feature extraction across both spatial and channel dimensions. Validated on the “7.20” heavy rain disaster dataset from Zhengzhou, DDA achieves optimal performance (learning rate: 0.01, batch_size: 16, epoch: 88) with 87.5% accuracy, 98.5% global accuracy, 77.8% MIoU, and 86.5% F1-score, outperforming DeepLabv3+, Swin-Unet, U-Net, YOLO baseline models. Ablation studies confirm dual-attention synergy improves MIoU by 2.5%, precision by 2.5% over single mechanisms. Further, a damage quantification framework is developed using OpenCV and Canny edge detection to extract contours, coupled with a maximum tangent circle algorithm for pixel-level width measurement and skeletonization-based pixel-level length calculation. The results of damage quantification model show that the proportion of images with damage width quantification error ⩽ 20% are 85.29%. This study serves as a reference for intelligent assessment and risk classification of structural damage to buildings affected by flooding. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

  • Schulte, L., Santisteban, J. I., Fuller, I. C., & Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A. (2025). Editorial preface to special issue: Temporal and spatial patterns in Holocene floods under the influence of past global change, and their implications for forecasting “unpredecented” future events. Global and Planetary Change, 254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105021

    Floods constitute the most significant natural hazard to societies worldwide. Population growth and unchecked development have led to floodplain encroachment. Modelling suggests that climate change will regionally intensify the threat posed by future floods, with more people in harm's way. From a global change perspective, past flood events and their spatial-temporal patterns are of particular interest because they can be linked to former climate patterns, which can be used to guide future climate predictions. Millennial and centennial time series contain evidence of very rare extreme events, which are often considered by society as ‘unprecedented’. By understanding their timing, magnitude and frequency in conjunction with prevailing climate regime, we can better forecast their future occurrence. This Virtual Special Issue (VSI) entitled Temporal and spatial patterns in Holocene floods under the influence of past global change, and their implications for forecasting “unpredecented” future events comprises 14 papers that focus on how centennial and millennia-scale natural and documentary flood archives help improve future flood science. Specifically, documentation of large and very rare flood episodes challenges society's lack of imagination regarding the scale of flood disasters that are possible (what we term here, the “unknown unknowns”). Temporal and spatial flood behaviour and related climate patterns as well as the reconstruction of flood propagation in river systems are important foci of this VSI. These reconstructions are crucial for the provision of robust and reliable data sets, knowledge and baseline information for future flood scenarios and forecasting. We argue that it remains difficult to establish analogies for understanding flood risk during the current period of global warming. Most studies in this VSI suggest that the most severe flooding occurred during relatively cool climate periods, such as the Little Ice Age. However, flood patterns have been significantly altered by land use and river management in many catchments and floodplains over the last two centuries, thereby obscuring the climate signal. When the largest floods in instrumental records are compared with paleoflood records reconstructed from natural and documentary archives, it becomes clear that precedent floods should have been considered in many cases of flood frequency analysis and flood risk modelling in hydraulic infrastructure. Finally, numerical geomorphological analysis and hydrological simulations show great potential for testing and improving our understanding of the processes and factors involved in the temporal and spatial behaviour of floods. © 2025 The Authors

  • Muhammed, S. P., Holla, B. R. K., Balakrishna, K., & Warrier, A. K. (2025). Developing rejuvenation strategies and artificial flood mitigation plans for Indrani River: a case study. Scientific Reports, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12439-z

    Artificial flooding of rainwater is most common in urban areas due to various reasons, such as improper drainage systems, obstruction of natural drainage by building constructions, and encroachment of stormwater nallahs. Flash floods lead to significant losses, disrupt transportation, and cause inconvenience to the public. Udupi, characterized by its porous lateritic strata, undulating topography, and proximity to the sea, experiences artificial flooding during the peak monsoon season in its low-lying areas, primarily due to the overflow of the Indrani River, which is also a potential water resource for Udupi, Karnataka. Currently, the river faces significant challenges due to increasing anthropogenic activities. Revitalizing the Indrani River offers numerous benefits, including its potential use as a drinking water source during periods of water scarcity. This study aims to propose flood and stormwater management measures for the river catchment and to evaluate selected water quality parameters (pH, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity) at fifteen strategic locations along the river course. Higher conductivity observed at downstream stations is attributed to sewage discharge from urban settlements and a sewage treatment plant. The study suggests short-term measures such as targeted clean-up operations and stricter enforcement of pollution control regulations. Additionally, it recommends long-term strategies, including the development of a comprehensive river basin management plan, community engagement initiatives, and improvements to wastewater treatment infrastructure. To maintain the health of the Indrani River, this research emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring and the implementation of integrated management practices. © The Author(s) 2025.

  • Guo, Z., Shi, X., Zhang, D., & Zhao, Q. (2026). Effects of long-term wetland variations on flood risk assessments in the Yangtze River Basin. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108123

    Flooding is the most frequent natural disaster in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), causing significant socio-economic damages. In recent decades, abundant wetland resources in the YRB have experienced substantial changes and played a significant role in strengthening the hydrological resilience to flood risks. However, wetland-related approaches remain underdeveloped for mitigating flood risks in the YRB due to the lack of considering long-term wetland effects in the flood risk assessment. Therefore, this study develops an wetland-related GIS-based spatial multi-index flood risk assessment model by incorporating the effects of wetland variations, to investigate the long-term implications of wetland variations on flood risks, to identify dominant flood risk indicators under wetland effects, and to provide wetland-related flood risk management suggestions. These findings indicate that wetlands in the Taihu Lake Basin, Wanjiang Plain, Poyang Lake Basin, and Dongting and Honghu Lake Basin could enhance flood control capacity and reduce flood risks in most years between 1985 and 2021 except years with extreme flood disasters. Wetlands in the Sichuan Basin have aggravated but limited impacts on flood risks. Precipitation in the Taihu Lake Basin and Poyang Lake Basin, runoff and vegetation cover in the Wanjiang Plain, GDP in the Taihu Lake Basin, population density in the Taihu lake Basin, Dongting and Honghu Lake Basin, and the Sichuan Basin are dominant flood risk indicators under wetland effects. Reasonably managing wetlands, maximizing stormwater storage capacity, increasing vegetation coverage in urbanized and precipitated regions are feasible suggestions for developing wetland-related flood resilience strategies in the YRB. © 2025 The Authors

  • Xu, J., Wu, M., Hao, J., Lu, J., Zhao, D., Zheng, W., Jiang, G., Yu, S., & Wang, L. (2025). Development and validation of a predictive flux regression model for tubular membrane treatment of Polymer-Flooding produced water. Separation and Purification Technology, 378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seppur.2025.134787

    This study established and validated a regression model for predicting membrane flux (Jv) during treatment of polymer-flooding produced water (PFPW) using PVDF ultrafiltration membranes hydrophilized by Nano-Al2O3 particles. A factorial crossover experimental design was employed to investigate the temporal flux variations and 24-hour average flux (Jv24) under different membrane surface velocities and transmembrane pressure differences. Based on Taylor's mathematical principles, a regression model for predicting Jv in PFPW treatment was developed using the experimental results. The coefficients, contour plots and response surface of the model were obtained through MATLAB software. Theoretical and experimental validations were conducted to assess the accuracy of the model. Theoretical validation demonstrated that the standard residuals of the model and predicted values were within ± 2.00, with the predicted and measured Jv exhibiting similar statistical distribution characteristics. Experimental validation revealed that, except for the relative errors at the endpoints of the model's independent variable intervals (approximately 7 %) of the model, all other errors were below 4 %, indicating high accuracy of the regression model. This work provides a methodological and theoretical basis for optimizing operational parameters in PFPW membrane treatment, and predicting Jv under specified conditions to support energy savings and consumption reduction. © 2025 Elsevier B.V.

  • Li, X., Chen, R., Ren, Y., & Jim, C. Y. (2026). Intrinsic drivers of urban flood disasters from the resilience perspective in China. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111596

    Urban flood disasters pose substantial threats to public safety and urban development, with climate change exacerbating the intensity, frequency, and consequences of such events. While existing research has predominantly concentrated on flood control and disaster response, limited attention has been paid to the underlying drivers and evolutionary mechanisms of urban flood resilience. This study applies the resilience framework to develop an integrated methodology for assessing urban flood resilience. Focusing on three coastal provinces in China that frequently experience severe flooding, the study identifies fifteen key resilience drivers to construct a compound driver system. The evolution of flood resilience is examined through the lens of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, which categorizes the drivers into three distinct dimensions. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Interpretative Structural Model (ISM) methods are employed to analyze the interrelationships and hierarchical structure among drivers. In parallel, a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach is used to construct causal-loop and stock-flow diagrams, revealing the complex interdependencies and critical pathways across resilience dimensions. The analysis identifies rainfall intensity as the most influential driver in shaping urban flood resilience. Scenario simulations based on the SD model explore variations in resilience performance under three developmental pathways. Findings suggest that enhancing response resilience is crucial under current flood control trajectories. This study contributes novel conceptual and methodological insights into the measurement and evolution of urban flood resilience. It offers actionable guidance for policymakers aiming to strengthen flood risk governance and urban safety. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

  • Qiu, Y., Shi, X., & He, X. (2026). Enhancing flood prediction in the Lower Mekong River Basin by scale-independent interpretable deep learning model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108130

    Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme floods in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMB). This study leverages the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to evaluate its performance in predicting river discharge across the LMB and to identify the key variables contributing to flood prediction through SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) and Universal Multifractal (UM) analyses, in a scale-dependent and scale-independent manner, respectively. The performance of the LSTM model is satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values exceeding 0.9 for all subbasins when using all input features. The model tends to underestimate the largest peak flows in the midstream subbasins that experienced extreme rainfall events. According to SHAP, soil-related variables are important contributors to discharge prediction, with their impacts partially manifested through interactions with precipitation and runoff. Furthermore, the dominant contributing variables influencing flood prediction vary over time: soil-related variables and vegetation-related variables played a more significant role in earlier years, whereas hydrometeorological variables became more dominant after 2017. The UM analysis investigates the scaling behaviours of contributing variables, showing that hydrometeorological-related variables have a greater influence on predicting extreme discharge across the small temporal scales. Additionally, the UM analysis indicates that the model's performance improves as the temporal variability in extremes of the combined features decreases across 1 to 16 days. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of the LSTM model's performance in discharge prediction, emphasising the impact of the variability in the extremes of combined features through the scale-independent interpretation. These findings will offer valuable insights for stakeholders to improve flood risk management across the LMB. © 2025 The Authors

  • Mumbere, W., Sagala, F., Gupta, U., & Bbosa, D. (2025). Reservoir Potential Unlocked: Synergies Between Low-Salinity Water Flooding, Nanoparticles and Surfactants in Enhanced Oil Recovery─A Review. ACS Omega, 10(29), 31216–31261. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsomega.5c02533

    This review explores the synergistic application of low-salinity water flooding (LSWF), nanoparticles, and surfactants in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), emphasizing their combined potential to address modern oil production challenges. It highlights the ability of LSWF to alter reservoir wettability, improve sweep efficiency, nanoparticles to enhance fluid mobility, and reduce interfacial tension, and surfactants to lower the interfacial tension and promote emulsification. All of this aim to provide practical, easy-to-use, and sustainable solutions for oil recovery. The review discusses existing research gaps in the long-term stability of nanoparticle-surfactant complexes, site-specific differences in rock-fluid interactions, and economic viability across diverse reservoirs. The review summarizes experimental findings, demonstrating recovery rates of 45–55% for nanoparticles, 50–60% for surfactants, and 40–50% for LSWF with improvements of 75–82% through this integrated approach. Additionally, the review addresses technological advancements, environmental considerations, and economic feasibility, highlighting challenges such as nanoparticle agglomeration and surfactant adsorption. A bibliographic analysis of global research trends, mechanisms, and field applications underscores the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in optimizing this strategy for sustainable and efficient EOR processes. The findings aim to guide researchers and industry professionals in leveraging the synergistic effects of these methods to maximize oil recovery and reduce environmental footprints with a proposition to develop advanced characterization techniques, and verifying practicality through field implementation studies © 2025 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society

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