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Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard for road users and infrastructure in northern Gaspesie. Over the past 11 years, the occurrence of nearly 500 snow avalanches on the two major roads servicing the area was reported. No management program is currently operational. In this study, we analyze the weather patterns promoting snow avalanche initiation and use logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probability of avalanche occurrence on a daily basis. We then test the best LR models over the 2012–2013 season in an operational forecasting perspective: Each day, the probability of occurrence (0–100%) determined by the model was classified into five classes avalanche danger scale. Our results show that avalanche occurrence along the coast is best predicted by 2 days of accrued snowfall [in water equivalent (WE)], daily rainfall, and wind speed. In the valley, the most significant predictive variables are 3 days of accrued snowfall (WE), daily rainfall, and the preceding 2 days of thermal amplitude. The large scree slopes located along the coast and exposed to strong winds tend to be more reactive to direct snow accumulation than the inner-valley slopes. Therefore, the probability of avalanche occurrence increases rapidly during a snowfall. The slopes located in the valley are less responsive to snow loading. The LR models developed prove to be an efficient tool to forecast days with high levels of snow avalanche activity. Finally, we discuss how road maintenance managers can use this forecasting tool to improve decision making and risk rendering on a daily basis.
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Abstract Urban political ecology (UPE) has mainly evolved within the discipline of geography to examine the power relations that produce uneven urban spaces (infrastructures and natures) and unequal access to resources in cities. Its increasingly poststructuralist orientation demands the questioning of received categories and concepts, including those of (neoliberal) governance, government, and of the state. This paper attempts to open this black box by referring to the mostly anthropological literature on everyday governance and the everyday state. We argue that UPE could benefit from ethnographic governance studies to unveil multiple state and non‐state actors that influence the local environment, their diverse rationalities, normative registers, and interactions across scales. This would also to enrich and nuance geographical UPE accounts of neoliberal environmental governance and potentially render the framework more policy relevant.
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This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate-related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally-occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT),(1) representing country-year-level observations over the period 1980-2007. The study finds that low-income countries are significantly more at risk of climate-related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.© 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016. Language: en