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Une coulee de slush (bouillie de neige fondante) est un ecoulement rapide constitue d’un melange de neige fondante, d’eau, de boue et de debris de toutes sortes. Les sept sites analyses demontrent que les coulees de slush peuvent survenir dans des contextes topographiques fort differents qui presentent toutefois des similitudes au niveau du mode d’enneigement et des conditions hydro-meteorologiques. Les coulees de slush etudiees demarrent dans des ruisseaux d’ordre 1 ou 2, etroits et peu profonds, de pente tres variable (de 1° a plus de 30°), qui sont combles par des bouchons de neige dense soufflee par le vent ou transportee par les avalanches. Parce qu’ils s’opposent a la libre circulation des eaux de fusion lors des periodes de fonte acceleree, ces bouchons de neige favorisent la saturation du manteau neigeux jusqu’a la rupture sous l’effet combine de la pression hydrostatique et de la gravite. Les onze coulees analysees, qui se sont produites entre 1936 et 2013, permettent de definir deux scenarios hydro-meteorologiques propices a leur declenchement : 1) des redoux de longue duree caracterises par des temperatures qui restent positives pendant plusieurs jours consecutifs sans apport de precipitations liquides; 2) des redoux relativement courts (moins de 48 heures) couples a des precipitations liquides abondantes. Largement meconnues au Quebec, les coulees de slush pourraient etre plus frequentes a l’avenir en reponse au rechauffement climatique en cours.

Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) in northern Canada during the spring–summer season (March–July) from 1979–2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring–summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring–summer mean temperature [0.4°C–1°C (10 yr)-1] and the RPR [2%–6% (10 yr)-1] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979–2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.

We analyzed annual peak flow series from 127 naturally flowing or naturalized streamflow gauges across western Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk, which has been previously unexamined in detail. Using Spearman's rank correlation ρ and permutation tests on quantile-quantile plots, we show that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase (shown at 38% of the stations by Spearman's rank correlations and at 51% of the stations according to the permutation tests). Flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. Our results hold throughout much of this region, with the upper Fraser River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the North Saskatchewan River Basin particularly subject to this effect. Our results add to other researchers' work questioning the wholesale validity of the key assumption in FFA that the annual peak flow series at a site is independently and identically distributed. Hence, knowledge of large-scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of infrastructure.

Although numerous studies have looked at the long-term trend of the temporal variability of winter temperature and precipitation in southern Quebec, no study has focused on the shifts in series means and the dependence between these two types of climate variables associated with this long-term trend. To fill these gaps, we used the Lombard method to detect the shifts in mean values and the copula method to detect any change in dependence between extreme (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation (snow and rain) over the periods 1950–2000 (17 stations) and 1950–2010 (7 stations). During these two periods, the shifts in mean values of temperature and precipitation were recorded at less than half of the stations. The only significant change observed at the provincial scale is a decrease in the amount of snowfall, which occurred in many cases during the 1970s. This decrease affected stations on the north shore (continental temperate climate) more strongly than stations on the south shore (maritime temperate climate) of the St Lawrence River. However, this decrease in the amount of snowfall had no impact on the dependence over time between temperature and precipitation as snow.

Abstract Debris slide occurrence on treed slopes of northeastern North America is still poorly documented, despite their abundance and their potential to change mountainous landscapes in short periods of time. To provide new information on their spatiotemporal dynamics, a study was undertaken in debris slide paths in the Wildlife Reserve of Port-Cartier-Sept-Iles, on the Quebec North-Shore region of eastern Canada. Tree-ring dating of growth anomalies (impact scars and reaction wood) in nine debris slides allowed the identification of four debris slide events that occurred in 2003, 2006, 2008, and 2010. By comparison to other hillslope processes such as snow avalanches and debris flows, debris slides produce a very strong tree-ring signal. Therefore they do not require a large sample size considering also that they do not occur twice at the same place. The position of growth anomalies within individual tree rings allowed to determine the timing of the debris slide events: injuries located within a ring correspond to debris slides occurring during the growing season, whereas injuries located between the end of a ring and the beginning of the following ring were caused by debris slides occurring during the dormant season. The meteorological data indicate that a daily precipitation of 70mm appears usually sufficient for the occurrence of debris slides.

Introduction:In July 2013, a train transporting oil derailed and exploded in Lac-Mégantic, causing major human, environmental, and economic impacts. A community-based survey of people aged 10-25, conducted in 2017, revealed that many young people suffer in silence and report feeling isolated. These observations led to the conclusion that we must make room for young people, and that opportunities for engagement and participation must be provided within the community.Aim:The Public Health Direction of Estrie aimed to identify strategies to promote health and wellbeing for young people living in and around Lac-Mégantic.Methods:A collective reflection half-day was hosted with sixty key stakeholders (school board, other education institutions, health and social services, community sector, municipal/political sector, parents, youth). Throughout the event, participants were invited to build on and learn from accomplishments and experiential knowledge, and develop a common vision of the solutions to be pursued or implemented. All qualitative data sources (verbal and written data from large- and sub-group activities) were analyzed through a content analysis.Results:Several themes (i.e. potential solutions) emerged from the analysis: common venue, diversified activities, communication, collaboration, involvement, support for at-risk youth, intergenerational component, etc. Participants agreed on four priorities for action: 1) creating a gathering place, 2) establishing a Youth Committee, 3) supporting adults working with youth, and 4) fostering a better flow of information.Discussion:Several positive outcomes of the collective reflection half-day were observed, including the mobilization of the participants who greatly appreciated the event, and many promising ideas launched by stakeholders. A social worker is now fully dedicated to supporting youth wellbeing and engagement in Lac-Mégantic. A Youth Committee has been established and projects by and for youth are being implemented. Bottom-up approaches to identify solutions to complex situations are not only effective but also respectful of the local culture.

In this study future flooding frequencies have been estimated for the Grand River catchment located in south - western Ontario, Canada. Historical and future climatic projections made by fifteen Coupled Model Inter - comparison Project - 3 climate models are bias - corrected and downscaled before they are used to obtain mid - and end of 21 st century streamflow projections. By comparing the future projected and historically observed precipitation and temperature record s it is found that the mean and extreme temperature events will intensify in future across the catchment. The increase is more drastic in the case of extreme events than the mean events. The sign of change in future precipitation is uncertain. Further flow extremes are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in future across the catchment. The confidence in the projection is more for low return period (<10 years) extreme events than higher return period (10 - 100 years) events. It can be expected that increases in temperature will play a dominant role in increasing the magnitude of low return period flooding events while precipitation seems to play an important role in shaping the high return period events.

Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Quebec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

Among natural-disaster risks, heat waves are responsible for a large number of deaths, diseases and economic losses around the world. As they will increase in severity, duration and frequency over the decades to come within the context of climate change, these extreme events constitute a genuine danger to human health, and heat-warning systems are strongly recommended by public health authorities to reduce this risk of diseases and of excessive mortality and morbidity. Thus, evidence-based public alerting criteria are needed to reduce impacts on human health before and during persistent hot weather conditions. The goal of this guide is to identify alert thresholds for heat waves in Canada based on evidence, and to propose an approach for better defining heat waves in the Canadian context in order to reduce the risks to human health and contribute to the well-being of Canadians. This guide is the result of the collaboration among various research and public institutions working on: 1) meteorological and climate aspects, i.e. the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC, Environment and Climate Change Canada), and the ESCER centre at the Universite du Quebec a Montreal, and 2) public health, i.e. Health Canada and the Institut National de Sante Publique du Quebec.

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affected by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. These results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.

In Canada, flood analysis and water resource management, in general, are tasks conducted at the provincial level; therefore, unified national-scale approaches to water-related problems are uncommon. In this study, a national-scale flood risk assessment approach is proposed and developed. The study focuses on using global and national datasets available with various resolutions to create flood risk maps. First, a flood hazard map of Canada is developed using topography-based parameters derived from digital elevation models, namely, elevation above nearest drainage (EAND) and distance from nearest drainage (DFND). This flood hazard mapping method is tested on a smaller area around the city of Calgary, Alberta, against a flood inundation map produced by the city using hydraulic modelling. Second, a flood exposure map of Canada is developed using a land-use map and the satellite-based nightlight luminosity data as two exposure parameters. Third, an economic flood risk map is produced, and subsequently overlaid with population density information to produce a socioeconomic flood risk map for Canada. All three maps of hazard, exposure, and risk are classified into five classes, ranging from very low to severe. A simple way to include flood protection measures in hazard estimation is also demonstrated using the example of the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba. This could be done for the entire country if information on flood protection across Canada were available. The evaluation of the flood hazard map shows that the topography-based method adopted in this study is both practical and reliable for large-scale analysis. Sensitivity analysis regarding the resolution of the digital elevation model is needed to identify the resolution that is fine enough for reliable hazard mapping, but coarse enough for computational tractability. The nightlight data are found to be useful for exposure and risk mapping in Canada; however, uncertainty analysis should be conducted to investigate the effect of the overglow phenomenon on flood risk mapping.

Flood events in Canada result in larger costs, in terms of property damage, than any other natural disaster. Changes in land use, and more recently the impacts of climate change, can lead to changes in the flood regime. This paper describes research examining changes in the flood regime for watersheds across Canada. To distinguish between changes resulting from land-use changes and those occurring due to changes in climate, the analysis of flood data is conducted only on watersheds that are either part of a formal Reference Hydrologic Network (RHN), or which exhibit RHN-like characteristics. A total of 280 gauging stations have been analyzed for changes to a number of attributes of the flood regime. Changes in the magnitude and timing of flood events as well as the frequency and duration of high-flow events are examined for all 280 sites. Using all 280 sites and different groupings of the sites, based on timing of floods, drainage area and the RHN designation, changes were determined in the annual number ...

Abstract The potential effects of climate change on the hydrodynamic and sediment transport regime of the lower Athabasca River (LAR) in Alberta, Canada, is investigated. Future climate projections for the region suggest a potential increase in mean air temperature and precipitation by about 2.8–7.1 °C and 8–25%, respectively, by the end of this century. Implications of these climatic changes on the hydrologic regime of the LAR are found to be significant with spring flows expected to increase by about 11–62% and 26–71% by the end of the century for a moderate and high emissions scenarios respectively with corresponding decreases in summer flows. The effects of such changes are examined using the MIKE‐11 hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling system with inflow boundary conditions corresponding to the changing hydro‐climatic regime. The results suggest that there will be an overall increase in flow velocity, water level, and suspended sediment concentration and transport for most seasons except in the summer months when there may be some decreases. The projected changes in suspended sediment concentration will result in an overall increase in mean annual sediment load in the LAR and to the Peace Athabasca Delta by over 50% towards the latter part of this century (2080s) compared with the 1980s base‐line period. Implications of such potential changes in the transport characteristics of the river system to the mobilization and transport of various chemical constituents and their effects on the region's aquatic ecosystems are subjects of other ongoing investigations.

Abstract. This study presents an analysis of the observed inter-annual variability and inter-decadal trends in river discharge across northern Canada for 1964–2013. The 42 rivers chosen for this study span a combined gauged area of 5.26×106km2 and are selected based on data availability and quality, gauged area and record length. Inter-annual variability in river discharge is greatest for the eastern Arctic Ocean (coefficient of variation, CV=16%) due to the Caniapiscau River diversion into the La Grande Riviere system for enhanced hydropower production. Variability is lowest for the study area as a whole (CV=7%). Based on the Mann–Kendall test (MKT), no significant (p>0.05) trend in annual discharge from 1964 to 2013 is observed in the Bering Sea, western Arctic Ocean, western Hudson and James Bay, and Labrador Sea; for northern Canada as a whole, however, a statistically significant (p

Physical evidence for the drainage of glacial lakes remains relatively rare in depositional records, giving rise to much debate on the location of outlets and discharge pathways, as well as on the climate impact of the attendant meltwater forcing. Lake Ojibway developed following the withdrawal of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in northern Ontario and Quebec, Canada. The late-stage evolution of this large ice-dammed lake was influenced by the complex dynamics of the retreating ice margin, which highly complicates the identification of the termination of Lake Ojibway in glaciolacustrine sediment records. Here, we document the composition of sections of rhythmites that contain in their upper part an anomalously thick and whitish bed (10–15cm) that is in turn overlain by ∼1m of faintly bedded rhythmites. Grain-size analyses showed that the thick whitish bed consists primarily of fine to coarse silt (2–63μm), contrasting with the lower and upper rhythmites that are largely dominated by clay (<2μm). The detrital carbonate content of the thick silt bed is characterized by consistently high values (2.5 to 2.8%), whereas the bounding rhythmites show lower and highly variable values. Oxygen isotope measurements further show a marked change going from typical glacial meltwater values (∼ −29.6 to −27.7‰; VSMOW) for the lower rhythmites and the silt bed to modern-like meteoric values (−18.4 to −14.6‰) for the uppermost rhythmites. These data suggest that this marker bed may be associated with a major drawdown event that possibly corresponds to the final drainage of Lake Ojibway. AMS radiocarbon dating of ostracods extracted from the drainage bed also documents an important hardwater effect within the Ojibway basin.