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Floods have potentially devastating consequences on populations, industries and environmental systems. They often result from a combination of effects from meteorological, physiographic and anthropogenic natures. The analysis of flood hazards under a multivariate perspective is primordial to evaluate several of the combined factors. This study analyzes spring flood-causing mechanisms in terms of the occurrence, frequency, duration and intensity of precipitation as well as temperature events and their combinations previous to and during floods using frequency analysis as well as a proposed multivariate copula approach along with hydrometeorological indices. This research was initiated over the Richelieu River watershed (Quebec, Canada), with a particular emphasis on the 2011 spring flood, constituting one of the most damaging events over the last century for this region. Although some work has already been conducted to determine certain causes of this record flood, the use of multivariate statistical analysis of hydrologic and meteorological events has not yet been explored. This study proposes a multivariate flood risk model based on fully nested Archimedean Frank and Clayton copulas in a hydrometeorological context. Several combinations of the 2011 Richelieu River flood-causing meteorological factors are determined by estimating joint and conditional return periods with the application of the proposed model in a trivariate case. The effects of the frequency of daily frost/thaw episodes in winter, the cumulative total precipitation fallen between the months of November and March and the 90th percentile of rainfall in spring on peak flow and flood duration are quantified, as these combined factors represent relevant drivers of this 2011 Richelieu River record flood. Multiple plausible and physically founded flood-causing scenarios are also analyzed to quantify various risks of inundation.

Abstract Retrospective estimation of daily streamflow for all rivers within a territory is of practical interest for sustainable and optimal water management. This implies, however, the availability of methods for providing accurate estimations of flow for ungauged rivers. This study compares the potential of statistical interpolation (SI)—a simple data assimilation technique that combines observations and simulations from hydrological modelling—with four other approaches: nearest neighbour, direct use of outputs from hydrological modelling, ordinary and topological kriging. Through subsampling cross-validation analyses based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency indicator, we show that SI compares favourably with these other approaches. While the performance of other methods depends on the configuration of the ungauged site in regards to the neighbouring reference sites, SI is less affected by these configurations. SI outperforms the other approaches particularly where the ungauged site is relatively distant from observation sites. In these cases, SI performance depends on the performance of the background model that relies on simulations of hydrological processes forced by precipitation and temperature observations. Our findings offer the potential for heightened performance estimates through an improvement of hydrological modelling and the use of more complex assimilation techniques for exploiting the model.

Une coulee de slush (bouillie de neige fondante) est un ecoulement rapide constitue d’un melange de neige fondante, d’eau, de boue et de debris de toutes sortes. Les sept sites analyses demontrent que les coulees de slush peuvent survenir dans des contextes topographiques fort differents qui presentent toutefois des similitudes au niveau du mode d’enneigement et des conditions hydro-meteorologiques. Les coulees de slush etudiees demarrent dans des ruisseaux d’ordre 1 ou 2, etroits et peu profonds, de pente tres variable (de 1° a plus de 30°), qui sont combles par des bouchons de neige dense soufflee par le vent ou transportee par les avalanches. Parce qu’ils s’opposent a la libre circulation des eaux de fusion lors des periodes de fonte acceleree, ces bouchons de neige favorisent la saturation du manteau neigeux jusqu’a la rupture sous l’effet combine de la pression hydrostatique et de la gravite. Les onze coulees analysees, qui se sont produites entre 1936 et 2013, permettent de definir deux scenarios hydro-meteorologiques propices a leur declenchement : 1) des redoux de longue duree caracterises par des temperatures qui restent positives pendant plusieurs jours consecutifs sans apport de precipitations liquides; 2) des redoux relativement courts (moins de 48 heures) couples a des precipitations liquides abondantes. Largement meconnues au Quebec, les coulees de slush pourraient etre plus frequentes a l’avenir en reponse au rechauffement climatique en cours.

Although numerous studies have looked at the long-term trend of the temporal variability of winter temperature and precipitation in southern Quebec, no study has focused on the shifts in series means and the dependence between these two types of climate variables associated with this long-term trend. To fill these gaps, we used the Lombard method to detect the shifts in mean values and the copula method to detect any change in dependence between extreme (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation (snow and rain) over the periods 1950–2000 (17 stations) and 1950–2010 (7 stations). During these two periods, the shifts in mean values of temperature and precipitation were recorded at less than half of the stations. The only significant change observed at the provincial scale is a decrease in the amount of snowfall, which occurred in many cases during the 1970s. This decrease affected stations on the north shore (continental temperate climate) more strongly than stations on the south shore (maritime temperate climate) of the St Lawrence River. However, this decrease in the amount of snowfall had no impact on the dependence over time between temperature and precipitation as snow.

Introduction:In July 2013, a train transporting oil derailed and exploded in Lac-Mégantic, causing major human, environmental, and economic impacts. A community-based survey of people aged 10-25, conducted in 2017, revealed that many young people suffer in silence and report feeling isolated. These observations led to the conclusion that we must make room for young people, and that opportunities for engagement and participation must be provided within the community.Aim:The Public Health Direction of Estrie aimed to identify strategies to promote health and wellbeing for young people living in and around Lac-Mégantic.Methods:A collective reflection half-day was hosted with sixty key stakeholders (school board, other education institutions, health and social services, community sector, municipal/political sector, parents, youth). Throughout the event, participants were invited to build on and learn from accomplishments and experiential knowledge, and develop a common vision of the solutions to be pursued or implemented. All qualitative data sources (verbal and written data from large- and sub-group activities) were analyzed through a content analysis.Results:Several themes (i.e. potential solutions) emerged from the analysis: common venue, diversified activities, communication, collaboration, involvement, support for at-risk youth, intergenerational component, etc. Participants agreed on four priorities for action: 1) creating a gathering place, 2) establishing a Youth Committee, 3) supporting adults working with youth, and 4) fostering a better flow of information.Discussion:Several positive outcomes of the collective reflection half-day were observed, including the mobilization of the participants who greatly appreciated the event, and many promising ideas launched by stakeholders. A social worker is now fully dedicated to supporting youth wellbeing and engagement in Lac-Mégantic. A Youth Committee has been established and projects by and for youth are being implemented. Bottom-up approaches to identify solutions to complex situations are not only effective but also respectful of the local culture.

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affected by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. These results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.

Physical evidence for the drainage of glacial lakes remains relatively rare in depositional records, giving rise to much debate on the location of outlets and discharge pathways, as well as on the climate impact of the attendant meltwater forcing. Lake Ojibway developed following the withdrawal of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in northern Ontario and Quebec, Canada. The late-stage evolution of this large ice-dammed lake was influenced by the complex dynamics of the retreating ice margin, which highly complicates the identification of the termination of Lake Ojibway in glaciolacustrine sediment records. Here, we document the composition of sections of rhythmites that contain in their upper part an anomalously thick and whitish bed (10–15cm) that is in turn overlain by ∼1m of faintly bedded rhythmites. Grain-size analyses showed that the thick whitish bed consists primarily of fine to coarse silt (2–63μm), contrasting with the lower and upper rhythmites that are largely dominated by clay (<2μm). The detrital carbonate content of the thick silt bed is characterized by consistently high values (2.5 to 2.8%), whereas the bounding rhythmites show lower and highly variable values. Oxygen isotope measurements further show a marked change going from typical glacial meltwater values (∼ −29.6 to −27.7‰; VSMOW) for the lower rhythmites and the silt bed to modern-like meteoric values (−18.4 to −14.6‰) for the uppermost rhythmites. These data suggest that this marker bed may be associated with a major drawdown event that possibly corresponds to the final drainage of Lake Ojibway. AMS radiocarbon dating of ostracods extracted from the drainage bed also documents an important hardwater effect within the Ojibway basin.

En marge de la Cinquième Plateforme régionale pour la Réduction des risques de catastrophes des Amériques (PRA), le gouvernement du Canada a approché l’Institut des sciences de l’environnement(ISE) de l’Université du Québec à Montréal(UQAM) afin d’organiser un forum public. Les échanges de ce dernier devaient servir à alimenter les discussions de la PRA. Au total, 21 experts ont discuté avec une centaine de participants lors de panels organisés à l’UQAM sous les thèmes de la santé, de la sécurité civile et de l’aménagement du territoire. Plusieurs thèmes transversaux ont aussi émergé tout au long du forum. Il importe de pérenniser le rôle de la recherche et d’améliorer les capacités de formation technique et universitaire afin de former des spécialistes en mesure d’appréhender la complexité de la gestion du risque dans un contexte de changements environnementaux et climatiques. Ceci est également essentiel pour l’identification des facteurs de risque (multisources ou multidimensionnels), pour tirer des leçons apprises des événements majeurs passés et récents, et pour développer ou mettre à jour la connaissance sur les tendances en cours et à venir des aléas météorologiques, ainsi que des facteurs de vulnérabilité et d’exposition. Tous les panels ont discuté de l’importance de favoriser le décloisonnement intra/interorganisationnel pour promouvoir la transsectorialité et les retours d’expériences systématiques. Pour ce faire, il faut s’inspirer des modèles internationaux, notamment du système d’alertes hydrométéorologiques présenté par Météo-France. Celui-ci inclut une vigilance météorologique qui cible des populations et des autorités publiques, et les informe des comportements et des règles à suivre lors d’alertes plus problématiques (vigilance aux stades orange et rouge). Finalement, l’amélioration de la communication et le libre accès à l’information sont des éléments essentiels pour protéger les individus et développer une société plus résiliente.

Abstract Water table depth in peatlands is strongly linked to physical properties of the peat, such as density (ρ dry ), peat composition and humification, hydraulic conductivity (K), and specific yield (S y ). Dry bulk density and peat depth are commonly used as indicators of K in ecohydrological models. However, no mathematical relationship exists to quantify S y based on K and ρ dry . As a result, ecohydrological models cannot explicitly reproduce the strong buffering capacity of peatlands. The objectives of this study were to analyse the literature‐reported mathematical link between all the physical properties to develop new mathematical relationships between these parameters and to evaluate whether variations in the physical properties of the peat control water table depth in peatlands. Seven peatlands located in the St. Lawrence Lowlands (Québec, Canada) were sampled, and 1 m long peat cores were collected from up‐gradient, mid‐gradient, and down‐gradient zones. All cores were used to measure ρ dry , K, S y , and to estimate peat composition and humification. Statistically significant correlations were found between (a) K and S y (log–log model), (b) K and depth (log–log model), (c) S y and depth (log–log model), (d) ρ dry and S y (log model), and (e) ρ dry and K (log model). No significant difference was found in either K or S y between sites. However, significant differences were found in water table depths. Because they provide a fuller description of the peat properties that control water table depths, these newly developed functions have the potential to improve the capacity of ecohydrological models to simulate time‐varying hydrological conditions.

Hydrological responses in cold regions are often complex and variable (both spatially and temporally) due to the complex and multiple interactions between the hydrological processes at play. Thus, there is a need to better understand and represent cold region hydrological processes within hydrological models. In this study, a physicallybased hydrological model has been developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform for the L’Acadie River Catchment in southern Quebec (Canada). Almost 70 % of the catchment is occupied by agricultural fields, being representative of the intensive farming landscape of the southern St-Lawrence lowlands, while the rest is mostly forested. The physical processes including blowing snow, snow interception in canopies, sublimation and snowmelt were simulated over 35 years using the CRHM platform. Hydrologic response units (HRUs), the smallest simulation spatial unit within the catchment, were derived based on the combination of land use/cover and vegetation types. Over the simulation period, considerable spatial variability was detected between agricultural and forested sites. Snow accumulation and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) were found to be higher in forested sites than agricultural sites, which can be explained by blowing snow transport from agricultural sites to the forested sites where aerodynamic roughness is greater. Higher rates of blowing snow sublimation were detected over the agricultural sites compared to snow intercepted in the forest canopies. This can be explained by the fact that there is a great amount of blowing snow over the agricultural sites, and thus available suspended snow for sublimation, while over the forested sites the snow is more firmly retained by the canopies and thus there is less blowing snow and consequently less blowing snow sublimation. In addition, although snow cover duration shows variation over the simulation period, the snow generally lasts longer in forested fields than in agricultural fields. Our findings indicating more snow in forested fields than agricultural (open) fields are contrary to the usual notion that there is less snow accumulation on forest ground due to the high rates of canopy sublimation. However, this is true for the landscapes dominated by forests, while our study area is dominated by agricultural fields, so snow erosion of agricultural fields and snow deposition in forested fields seem to compensate canopy losses. Taken together, it is shown that land use exerts a critical control on snow distributions in this type of landscape, and perhaps on possible implications for future snow hydrology of the catchment.

Snowmelt dominated regions are receiving increasing attention due to their noticeably rapid response to ongoing climate change, which raises concerns about the altered hydrological risks under climate change scenarios. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on hydrology over two contrasted catchments in southern Québec: Acadie River and Montmorency River catchments. These river catchments represent two predominant landscapes of the St. Lawrence River watershed; an intensive farming landscape in the south shore lowlands and the forested landscape on the Canadian Shield on the north shore, respectively. In this study, a physically based hydrological model has been developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) for both of the catchments. The hydrological model outputs showed that we were able to simulate snow surveys and discharge measurements with a reasonable accuracy for both catchments. The acceptable performance of the model along with the strong physical basis of structure suggested that this model could be used for climate change sensitivity simulations. Based on the climate scenarios reviewed, a temperature increase up to 8°C and an increase in total precipitation up to 20% were analysed for both of the catchments. Both catchments were found to be sensitive to climate change, however the degree of sensitivity was found to be catchment specific. Snow processes in the Acadie River catchment were simulated to be more sensitive to warming than in the Montmorency River catchment. In case of 2°C warming, reduction in peak SWE was not be able to be compensated even by increased precipitation scenario. Given that, the Acadie River has already a mixed flow regime, even if 2°C warming is combined with an increase in precipitation, pluvial regime kept becoming more dominant, resulting in higher peaks of rain events. On the other hand, even 3°C of warming did not modify the flow regime of the Montmorency River. While there is shift towards earlier peak spring flows in both catchments, the shift was found to be more pronounced in the Acadie River. An earlier occurrence of snowmelt floods and an overall increase in winter streamflow during winter have been simulated for both catchments, which calls for renewed assessments of existing water supply and flood risk management strategies.

Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard for road users and infrastructure in northern Gaspesie. Over the past 11 years, the occurrence of nearly 500 snow avalanches on the two major roads servicing the area was reported. No management program is currently operational. In this study, we analyze the weather patterns promoting snow avalanche initiation and use logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probability of avalanche occurrence on a daily basis. We then test the best LR models over the 2012–2013 season in an operational forecasting perspective: Each day, the probability of occurrence (0–100%) determined by the model was classified into five classes avalanche danger scale. Our results show that avalanche occurrence along the coast is best predicted by 2 days of accrued snowfall [in water equivalent (WE)], daily rainfall, and wind speed. In the valley, the most significant predictive variables are 3 days of accrued snowfall (WE), daily rainfall, and the preceding 2 days of thermal amplitude. The large scree slopes located along the coast and exposed to strong winds tend to be more reactive to direct snow accumulation than the inner-valley slopes. Therefore, the probability of avalanche occurrence increases rapidly during a snowfall. The slopes located in the valley are less responsive to snow loading. The LR models developed prove to be an efficient tool to forecast days with high levels of snow avalanche activity. Finally, we discuss how road maintenance managers can use this forecasting tool to improve decision making and risk rendering on a daily basis.

La résilience, cette capacité d’une ville ou d’un environnement à maintenir sa structure, à s’organiser, apprendre et s’adapter aux chocs et stress, participe au mouvement de responsabilisation accrue du citoyen dans la protection contre les risques naturels. Si les inondations sont un phénomène récurrent à Montréal depuis la création même de la ville, les citoyens n’y sont encore que peu préparés comme le démontre l’ampleur des dommages causés par les inondations du printemps de 2017. Depuis le début du 21e siècle, les agences internationales et les États cherchent à sensibiliser le citoyen afin de susciter une action de sa part. On suppose alors que le citoyen informé aura ainsi une perception accrue des risques, conduisant au comportement de protection. Ce lien entre information, perception et comportement n’est pourtant pas évident. En réalité, la littérature montre que le comportement dépend d’une multiplicité de facteurs tels que l’expérience, la fréquence du risque ainsi qu’une évaluation par la personne de l’efficacité des mesures de protection, de leur coût face à une évaluation de la probabilité de la menace. Le mémoire vise à répondre à la question de recherche suivante : comment inciter les individus à adopter des mesures de protection contre les inondations à Montréal ? Une enquête auprès de 237 citoyens de quatre secteurs de l’agglomération touchés par les inondations printanières de 2017 met en lumière un ensemble d’obstacles à l’adoption des mesures de protection contre les inondations aujourd’hui analysés grâce au Protective Action Decision Model de Lindell et Perry (2012). Ainsi, dans le cas de Montréal, le manque d’action relève à la fois d’un manque d’information et de connaissances sur les origines du risque et les mesures de prévention, de la perception d’inefficacité des mesures comme la trousse 72 heures, d’une perception d’incapacité à mettre en place soi-même les mesures de prévention, et d’un coût important en ressources de ces dernières. Le dernier élément est l’incertitude de ce type de risque et l’incapacité à prévoir avec précision le prochain événement de crue, qui, combiné à un sentiment de responsabilité élevé des autorités à assurer la protection, implique un manque d’urgence à agir. Face à ces constats et après une étude du cas de la Nouvelle Orléans aux États-Unis, une réflexion est proposée sur les moyens à mettre en place pour inciter les citoyens à adopter ces mesures, comprenant sensibilisation mais aussi des moyens coercitifs et incitatifs.

Introduction:In July 2013, a train carrying 72 cars of crude oil derailed in the town of Lac-Mégantic (Eastern Townships, Quebec, Canada). This disaster provoked a major conflagration, explosions, 47 deaths, the destruction of 44 buildings, the evacuation of one-third of the local population, and an unparalleled oil spill. Notwithstanding the environmental impact, many citizens of this town and in surrounding areas have suffered and continue to suffer substantial losses as a direct consequence of this catastrophe.Problem:To tailor public health interventions and to meet the psychosocial needs of the community, the Public Health Department of Eastern Townships has undertaken repeated surveys to monitor health and well-being over time. This study focuses on negative psychosocial outcomes one and two years after the tragedy.Methods:Two cross-sectional surveys (2014 and 2015) were conducted among large random samples of adults in Lac-Mégantic and surrounding areas (2014: n = 811; 2015: n = 800), and elsewhere in the region (2014: n = 7,926; 2015: n = 800). A wide range of psychosocial outcomes was assessed (ie, daily stress, main source of stress, sense of insecurity, psychological distress, excessive drinking, anxiety or mood disorders, psychosocial services use, anxiolytic drug use, gambling habits, and posttraumatic stress symptoms [PSS]). Exposure to the tragedy was assessed using residential location (ie, six-digit postal code) and intensity of exposure (ie, intense, moderate, or low exposure; from nine items capturing human, material, or subjective losses). Relationships between such exposures and adverse psychosocial outcomes were examined using chi-squares and t-tests. Distribution of outcomes was also examined over time.Results:One year after the disaster, an important proportion of participants reported human, material, and subjective losses (64%, 23%, and 54%, respectively), whereas 17% of people experienced intense exposure. Participants from Lac-Mégantic, particularly those intensely exposed, were much more likely to report psychological distress, depressive episode, anxiety disorders, and anxiolytic drug use, relative to less-exposed ones. In 2015, 67% of the Lac-Mégantic participants (76% of intensely exposed) reported moderate to severe PSS. Surprisingly, the use of psychosocial services in Lac-Mégantic declined by 41% from 2014 to 2015.Conclusion:The psychosocial burden in the aftermath of the Lac-Mégantic tragedy is substantial and persistent. Public health organizations responding to large-scaling disasters should monitor long-term psychosocial consequences and advocate for community-based psychosocial support in order to help citizens in their recovery process.