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© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Tropical cyclones (TCs) have devastating impacts and are responsible for significant damage. Consequently, for TC-induced direct economic loss (DEL) attribution all factors associated with risk (i.e. hazard, exposure and vulnerability) must be examined. This research quantifies the relationship between TC-induced DELs and maximum wind speed, asset value and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita using a regression model with TC records from 2000 to 2015 for China's mainland area. The coefficient of the maximum wind speed term indicates that a doubling of the maximum wind speed increases DELs by 225% [97%, 435%] when the other two variables are held constant. The coefficient of the asset value term indicates that a doubling of asset value exposed to TCs increases DELs by 79% [58%, 103%]; thus, if hazard and vulnerability are assumed to be constant in the future, then a dramatic escalation in TC-induced DELs will occur given the increase in asset value, suggesting that TC-prone areas with rapid urbanization and wealth accumulation will inevitably be subject to higher risk. Reducing the asset value exposure via land-use planning, for example, is important for decreasing TC risk. The coefficient of GDP per capita term indicates that a doubling in GDP per capita could decrease DELs by 54% [39%, 66%]. Because accumulated assets constantly increase people's demand for improved security, stakeholders must invest in risk identification, early warning systems, emergency management and other effective prevention measures with increasing income to reduce vulnerability. This research aims to quantitatively connect TC risk (expected DELs, specifically) to physical and socioeconomic drivers and emphasizes how human dimensions could contribute to TC risk. Moreover, the model can be used to estimate TC risk under climate change and future socioeconomic development in the context of China.
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Significant advancements have been made in examining the relationship between economic development and disaster losses at the global and national scales, but very little research has been done at the sub-national level, especially in China. Based on socioeconomic and disaster impact data from 31 provinces (municipalities, and autonomous regions) in China from 1990 to 2010, ordinary least squares regression was used to determine the relationship between socioeconomic development and effects of natural disasters. Results showed that economic development played a distinct role in mitigating disaster damages in the whole China and its eastern, central and western regions. There existed a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and disaster losses in the whole China and its eastern region, and an inverted-U nonlinearity linkage in its central and western areas. These findings further confirmed the existence of a nonlinear relationship between economic development and disaster losses. Economic growth had played a more important role in mitigating disaster losses in the central region of China than that in the western one. Further investigations demonstrated that as economic develops, there were fewer deaths caused by natural hazards in whole China and all its three regions. The combination of the lower level of education, higher unemployment rate and greater gross dependence ratio has contributed to the increase in death toll caused by natural disasters, but this trend could be partly offset by wealth growth.