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Abstract With over one‐third of terrestrial net primary productivity transferring to the litter layer annually, the carbon release from litter serves as a crucial valve in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, few quantitative global projections of litter carbon release rate in response to climate change exist. Here, we combined a global foliar litter carbon release dataset (8973 samples) to generate spatially explicitly estimates of the response of their residence time ( τ ) to climate change. Results show a global mean litter carbon release rate () of 0.69 year −1 (ranging from 0.09–5.6 year −1 ). Under future climate scenarios, global mean τ is projected to decrease by a mean of 2.7% (SSP 1–2.6) and 5.9% (SSP 5–8.5) during 2071–2100 period. Locally, the alleviation of temperature and moisture restrictions corresponded to obvious decreases in τ in cold and arid regions, respectively. In contract, τ in tropical humid broadleaf forests increased by 4.6% under SSP 5–8.5. Our findings highlight the vegetation type as a powerful proxy for explaining global patterns in foliar litter carbon release rates and the role of climate conditions in predicting responses of carbon release to climate change. Our observation‐based estimates could refine carbon cycle parameterization, improving projections of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks.