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Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones: The Added Value of Cyclone Classification for the East Australian Low‐Pressure Systems

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Type de ressource
Article de revue
Auteurs/contributeurs
  • Cavicchia, L. (Auteur)
  • Pepler, A. (Auteur)
  • Dowdy, A. (Auteur)
  • Evans, J. (Auteur)
  • Di Luca, A. (Auteur)
  • Walsh, K. (Auteur)
Titre
Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones: The Added Value of Cyclone Classification for the East Australian Low‐Pressure Systems
Résumé
Abstract Several regions of the world, including the east coast of Australia, are characterized by the occurrence of low‐pressure systems with a range of different dynamical structures, including tropical, extratropical, and hybrid cyclones. Future changes in the occurrence of cyclones are better understood if storms are classified according to their dynamical structure. Therefore, we apply a classification of cyclones according to their cold‐core or warm‐core structure to an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. First, we show that historical simulations reproduce well the reanalysis results in terms of cyclone classification. We then show that once cyclone classification is applied, projections of future cyclone activity become more robust, including a decrease in the occurrence of both cold‐core and warm‐core cyclones. Finally, we show that in a warmer climate warm‐core hybrid cyclone activity could increase close to the coast, while the associated rainfall and wind are projected to increase. , Plain Language Summary Cyclones in the tropics derive their energy from the temperature difference between warm ocean waters and the atmosphere and their interior is warmer than the environment (warm core), while cyclones in the midlatitudes derive their energy from differences in the atmospheric temperature and density at different locations and their interior is colder than the environment (cold core). In subtropical regions both types of cyclone can form. Also in those regions cyclones known as hybrid cyclones form, with mixed tropical‐extratropical features, such as a partial lower tropospheric warm core and a partial upper tropospheric cold core. This study is focused on cyclones along the eastern coast of Australia. Here we show that dividing cyclones in different classes according to their thermal structure provides a better framework to interpret changes in cyclone activity at subtropical latitudes. This study has two main results. First, classifying cyclones adds value to climate projection robustness. A large number of models agree on the decrease in the occurrence of both cold‐core and warm‐core cyclones. The study also indicates increased occurrence of hybrid cyclones close to the Australian coast. Second, the study shows evidence of future changes in cyclone‐related impacts, such as an increase in the associated rainfall. , Key Points A physically based classification of hybrid cyclones is applied to an ensemble of regional climate model simulations The cyclone classification method adds value to the projections of future cyclone activity, making them more robust Results indicate future changes (2060–2079) toward more intense impacts associated with hybrid cyclones
Publication
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
47
Numéro
6
Pages
e2019GL085751
Date
2020-03-28
Abrév. de revue
Geophysical Research Letters
Langue
en
DOI
10.1029/2019GL085751
ISSN
0094-8276, 1944-8007
Titre abrégé
Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones
URL
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085751
Consulté le
01/11/2024 14:46
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Référence
Cavicchia, L., Pepler, A., Dowdy, A., Evans, J., Di Luca, A., & Walsh, K. (2020). Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones: The Added Value of Cyclone Classification for the East Australian Low‐Pressure Systems. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(6), e2019GL085751. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085751
Auteur·e·s
  • Di Luca, Alejandro
Document
  • Cavicchia et al. - 2020 - Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones The Added Value of Cyclone Classification for t.pdf
Lien vers cette notice
https://bibliographies.uqam.ca/escer/bibliographie/WNCNNBW6
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