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The Occurrence of Near‐0°C Surface Air Temperatures in the Current and Pseudo‐Global Warming Future Over Southern Canada

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Type de ressource
Article de revue
Auteurs/contributeurs
  • Stewart, R. E. (Auteur)
  • Liu, Z. (Auteur)
  • Thériault, J. M. (Auteur)
  • Ruman, C. J. (Auteur)
Titre
The Occurrence of Near‐0°C Surface Air Temperatures in the Current and Pseudo‐Global Warming Future Over Southern Canada
Résumé
Abstract Temperatures near 0°C represent a critical threshold for many environmental processes and socio‐economic activities. This study examines surface air temperatures ( T ) near 0°C (−2°C ≤  T  ≤ 2°C) across much of southern Canada over a 13 year period (October 2000–September 2013). It utilized hourly data from 39 weather stations and from 4‐km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations that were both a retrospective simulation as well as a pseudo‐global warming simulation applicable near the end of the 21st century. Average annual occurrences of near‐0°C conditions increase by a relatively small amount of 5.1% from 985 hr in the current climate to 1,035 hr within the future one. Near‐0°C occurrences with precipitation vary from <5% to approximately 50% of these values. Near‐0°C occurrences are sometimes higher than values of neighboring temperatures. These near‐0°C peaks in temperature distributions can occur in both the current and future climate, in only one, or in neither. Only 4.3% of southern Canada is not associated with a near‐0°C peak and 65.8% is associated with a near‐0°C peak in both climates. It is inferred that latent heat exchanges from the melting and freezing of, for example, precipitation and the snowpack contribute significantly to some of these findings. , Plain Language Summary Our changing climate is spurring the development of huge efforts to improve resiliency. For many regions of the world, these efforts must account for potential changes in near‐0°C conditions within which both melting and freezing can occur and the accompanying latent heat exchanges can push air temperature toward 0°C. This article focuses on the occurrence of near‐0°C surface temperatures across southern Canada through an examination of observational and model information including projections in a future warmer (average 6.1°C increase) climate near the end of the 21st century. Average annual occurrences of near‐0°C conditions increase by a relatively small amount of 5.1% in the future climate and highest values continue to be along the Pacific coast or within the Western Cordillera and lowest values continue to be within central and northern areas. Near‐0°C occurrences are often higher than those of neighboring temperatures in the present climate and some of these elevated occurrences persist into the future one despite dramatic warming. It is inferred that latent heat exchanges from the melting and freezing of precipitation and snowcover contribute to these findings. , Key Points Near‐0°C surface air temperatures were examined over southern Canada using retrospective and pseudo‐global warming simulations Overall average occurrences increase slightly and their spatial patterns are largely maintained in the warmer climate Near‐0°C occurrences sometimes exceed those of neighboring temperatures and this feature often persists despite dramatic warming
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume
128
Numéro
6
Pages
e2022JD037981
Date
2023-03-27
Abrév. de revue
JGR Atmospheres
Langue
en
DOI
10.1029/2022JD037981
ISSN
2169-897X, 2169-8996
URL
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD037981
Consulté le
06/11/2024 15:50
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Référence
Stewart, R. E., Liu, Z., Thériault, J. M., & Ruman, C. J. (2023). The Occurrence of Near‐0°C Surface Air Temperatures in the Current and Pseudo‐Global Warming Future Over Southern Canada. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(6), e2022JD037981. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037981
Auteur·e·s
  • Thériault, Julie M.
Document
  • Stewart et al. - 2023 - The Occurrence of Near‐0°C Surface Air Temperatures in the Current and Pseudo‐Global Warming Future.pdf
Lien vers cette notice
https://bibliographies.uqam.ca/escer/bibliographie/ULZP4NK8
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