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Future Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Reduced Aerosol Emissions as Compared with Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

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Type de ressource
Article de revue
Auteurs/contributeurs
  • Acosta Navarro, Juan C. (Auteur)
  • Ekman, Annica M. L. (Auteur)
  • Pausata, Francesco S. R. (Auteur)
  • Lewinschal, Anna (Auteur)
  • Varma, Vidya (Auteur)
  • Seland, Øyvind (Auteur)
  • Gauss, Michael (Auteur)
  • Iversen, Trond (Auteur)
  • Kirkevåg, Alf (Auteur)
  • Riipinen, Ilona (Auteur)
  • Hansson, Hans Christen (Auteur)
Titre
Future Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Reduced Aerosol Emissions as Compared with Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Résumé
Abstract Experiments with a climate model (NorESM1) were performed to isolate the effects of aerosol particles and greenhouse gases on surface temperature and precipitation in simulations of future climate. The simulations show that by 2025–49 a reduction of aerosol emissions from fossil fuels following a maximum technically feasible reduction (MFR) scenario could lead to a global and Arctic warming of 0.26 and 0.84 K, respectively, as compared with a simulation with fixed aerosol emissions at the level of 2005. If fossil fuel emissions of aerosols follow a current legislation emissions (CLE) scenario, the NorESM1 model simulations yield a nonsignificant change in global and Arctic average surface temperature as compared with aerosol emissions fixed at year 2005. The corresponding greenhouse gas effect following the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emission scenario leads to a global and Arctic warming of 0.35 and 0.94 K, respectively. The model yields a marked annual average northward shift in the intertropical convergence zone with decreasing aerosol emissions and subsequent warming of the Northern Hemisphere. The shift is most pronounced in the MFR scenario but also visible in the CLE scenario. The modeled temperature response to a change in greenhouse gas concentrations is relatively symmetric between the hemispheres, and there is no marked shift in the annual average position of the intertropical convergence zone. The strong reduction in aerosol emissions in the MFR scenario also leads to a net southward cross-hemispheric energy transport anomaly both in the atmosphere and ocean, and enhanced monsoon circulation in Southeast Asia and East Asia causing an increase in precipitation over a large part of this region.
Publication
Journal of Climate
Volume
30
Numéro
3
Pages
939-954
Date
2017-02-01
Langue
en
DOI
10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0466.1
ISSN
0894-8755, 1520-0442
URL
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0466.1
Consulté le
07/11/2024 19:18
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Autorisations
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Référence
Acosta Navarro, J. C., Ekman, A. M. L., Pausata, F. S. R., Lewinschal, A., Varma, V., Seland, Ø., Gauss, M., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Riipinen, I., & Hansson, H. C. (2017). Future Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Reduced Aerosol Emissions as Compared with Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations. Journal of Climate, 30(3), 939–954. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0466.1
Auteur·e·s
  • Pausata, Francesco S.R.
Document
  • Acosta Navarro et al. - 2017 - Future Response of Temperature and Precipitation to Reduced Aerosol Emissions as Compared with Incre.pdf
Lien vers cette notice
https://bibliographies.uqam.ca/escer/bibliographie/KNI2D2EG
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