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Bibliographie complète 888 ressources
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Abstract. The early to mid-Holocene thermal optimum is a well-known feature in a wide variety of paleoclimate archives from the Northern Hemisphere. Reconstructed summer temperature anomalies from across northern Europe show a clear maximum around 6000 years before present (6 ka). For the marine realm, Holocene trends in sea-surface temperature reconstructions for the North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea do not exhibit a consistent pattern of early to mid-Holocene warmth. Sea-surface temperature records based on alkenones and diatoms generally show the existence of a warm early to mid-Holocene optimum. In contrast, several foraminifer and radiolarian based temperature records from the North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea show a cool mid-Holocene anomaly and a trend towards warmer temperatures in the late Holocene. In this paper, we revisit the foraminifer record from the Vøring Plateau in the Norwegian Sea. We also compare this record with published foraminifer based temperature reconstructions from the North Atlantic and with modelled (CCSM3) upper ocean temperatures. Model results indicate that while the seasonal summer warming of the sea-surface was stronger during the mid-Holocene, sub-surface depths experienced a cooling. This hydrographic setting can explain the discrepancies between the Holocene trends exhibited by phytoplankton and zooplankton based temperature proxy records.
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Abstract The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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There is a lack in representation of biosphere–atmosphere interactions in current climate models. To fill this gap, one may introduce vegetation dynamics in surface transfer schemes or couple global climate models (GCMs) with vegetation dynamics models. As these vegetation dynamics models were not designed to be included in GCMs, how are the latest generation dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suitable for use in global climate studies? This paper reviews the latest developments in DGVM modelling as well as the development of DGVM–GCM coupling in the framework of global climate studies. Limitations of DGVM and coupling are shown and the challenges of these methods are highlighted. During the last decade, DGVMs underwent major changes in the representation of physical and biogeochemical mechanisms such as photosynthesis and respiration processes as well as in the representation of regional properties of vegetation. However, several limitations such as carbon and nitrogen cycles, competition, land-use and land-use changes, and disturbances have been identified. In addition, recent advances in model coupling techniques allow the simulation of the vegetation–atmosphere interactions in GCMs with the help of DGVMs. Though DGVMs represent a good alternative to investigate vegetation–atmosphere interactions at a large scale, some weaknesses in evaluation methodology and model design need to be further investigated to improve the results.
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Our current understanding of terrestrial carbon processes is represented in various models used to integrate and scale measurements of CO 2 exchange from remote sensing and other spatiotemporal data. Yet assessments are rarely conducted to determine how well models simulate carbon processes across vegetation types and environmental conditions. Using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program we compare observed and simulated monthly CO 2 exchange from 44 eddy covariance flux towers in North America and 22 terrestrial biosphere models. The analysis period spans ∼220 site‐years, 10 biomes, and includes two large‐scale drought events, providing a natural experiment to evaluate model skill as a function of drought and seasonality. We evaluate models' ability to simulate the seasonal cycle of CO 2 exchange using multiple model skill metrics and analyze links between model characteristics, site history, and model skill. Overall model performance was poor; the difference between observations and simulations was ∼10 times observational uncertainty, with forested ecosystems better predicted than nonforested. Model‐data agreement was highest in summer and in temperate evergreen forests. In contrast, model performance declined in spring and fall, especially in ecosystems with large deciduous components, and in dry periods during the growing season. Models used across multiple biomes and sites, the mean model ensemble, and a model using assimilated parameter values showed high consistency with observations. Models with the highest skill across all biomes all used prescribed canopy phenology, calculated NEE as the difference between GPP and ecosystem respiration, and did not use a daily time step.
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Abstract. Using four different climate models, we investigate sea level pressure variability in the extratropical North Atlantic in the preindustrial climate (1750 AD) and at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyrs before present) in order to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation can affect signals recorded in climate proxies. In general, the models exhibit a significant reduction in interannual variance of sea level pressure at the LGM compared to pre-industrial simulations and this reduction is concentrated in winter. For the preindustrial climate, all models feature a similar leading mode of sea level pressure variability that resembles the leading mode of variability in the instrumental record: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In contrast, the leading mode of sea level pressure variability at the LGM is model dependent, but in each model different from that in the preindustrial climate. In each model, the leading (NAO-like) mode of variability explains a smaller fraction of the variance and also less absolute variance at the LGM than in the preindustrial climate. The models show that the relationship between atmospheric variability and surface climate (temperature and precipitation) variability change in different climates. Results are model-specific, but indicate that proxy signals at the LGM may be misinterpreted if changes in the spatial pattern and seasonality of surface climate variability are not taken into account.
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Data sets from CloudSat radar reflectivity and CALIPSO lidar backscattering measurements provide a new regard on Arctic and Antarctic winter cloud systems, as well as on the way aerosols determine their formation and evolution. Especially, links between the cloud ice crystal size and the surrounding aerosol field may be further investigated. In this study, the satellite observations are used to heuristically separate polar thin ice clouds into two crystal size categories, and an aerosol index based on the attenuated backscattering and color ratio of the sampled volumes is used for identifying haze in cloud‐free regions. Statistics from 386 Arctic satellite overpasses during January 2007 and from 379 overpasses over Antarctica during July 2007 reveal that sectors with the highest proportion of thin ice clouds having large ice crystals at their top are those for which the aerosol index is highest. Moreover, a weak but significant correlation between the cloud top ice effective radius and the above‐cloud aerosol index suggests that more polluted clouds tend to have higher ice effective radius, in 10 of the 11 sectors investigated. These results are interpreted in terms of a sulphate‐induced freezing inhibition effect.
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Historically, height–diameter models have mainly been developed for mature trees; consequently, few height–diameter models have been calibrated for young forest stands. In order to develop equations predicting the height of trees with small diameters, 46 individual height–diameter models were fitted and tested in young black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) plantations between the ages of 4 to 8 years, measured from 182 plots in New Brunswick, Canada. The models were divided into 2 groups: a diameter group and a second group applying both diameter and additional stand- or tree-level variables (composite models). There was little difference in predicting tree height among the former models (Group I) while the latter models (Group II) generally provided better prediction. Based on goodness of fit (R 2 and MSE), prediction ability (the bias and its associated prediction and tolerance intervals in absolute and relative terms), and ease of application, 2 Group II models were recommended for predicting individual tree heights within young black spruce and jack pine forest stands. Mean stand height was required for application of these models. The resultant tolerance intervals indicated that most errors (95%) associated with height predictions would be within the following limits (a 95% confidence level): [-0.54 m, 0.54 m] or [-14.7%, 15.9%] for black spruce and [-0.77 m, 0.77 m] or [-17.1%, 18.6%] for jack pine. The recommended models are statistically reliable for growth and yield applications, regeneration assessment and management planning. Key words: composite model, linear model, model calibration, model validation, prediction interval, tolerance interval
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Based on the mass balance approach, a detailed quantification of nitrogen (N) cycling was constructed for an urban–rural complex system, named the Greater Hangzhou Area (GHA) system, for this paper. The GHA is located in the humid climatic region on the southeastern coast of China, one of the earliest regions in the Yangtze Delta to experience economic development. Total N input into the GHA was calculated at 274.66 Gg/yr (1 Gg = 10 9 g), and total output was calculated at 227.33 Gg/yr, while N accumulation was assessed at 47.33 Gg/yr (17.2% of the total N input). Human activity resulted in 73% of N input by means of synthetic fertilizers, human food, animal feed, imported N containing chemicals, fossil fuel combustion, and other items. More than 69.3% of N was released into the atmosphere, and riverine N export accounted for 22.2% of total N output. N input and output to and from the GHA in 1980 were estimated at 119.53 Gg/yr and 98.30 Gg/yr, respectively, with an increase of 130% and 131%, respectively, during a 24‐year period (from 1980 to 2004). The N input increase was influenced by synthetic fertilizers (138%), animal feed (225%), N‐containing chemicals (371%), riverine input (311%), and N deposition (441%). Compared to the N balance seen in the arid Central Arizona–Phoenix (CAP) system in the United States, the proportion of N transferred to water bodies in the humid GHA system was found to be 36 times higher than the CAP system. Anthropogenic activity, as it typically does, enhanced the flux of N biogeochemistry in the GHA; however, a lack of an N remover (N pollutant treatment facilities) causes excess reactive N (N r ; such as NH 3 , N 2 O, NO x ), polluting water bodies and the atmosphere within the GHA. Therefore many challenges remain ahead in order to achieve sustainable development in the rapidly developing GHA system.
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Relationships between stand growth and structural diversity were examined in spruce-dominated forests in New Brunswick, Canada. Net growth, survivor growth, mortality, and recruitment represented stand growth, and tree species, size, and height diversity indices were used to describe structural diversity. Mixed-effects second-order polynomial regressions were employed for statistical analysis. Results showed stand structural diversity had a significant positive effect on net growth and survivor growth by volume but not on mortality and recruitment. Among the tested diversity indices, the integrated diversity of tree species and height contributed most to stand net growth and survivor growth. Structural diversity showed increasing trends throughout the developmental stages from young, immature, mature, and overmature forest stands. This relationship between stand growth and structural diversity may be due to stands featuring high structural diversity that enhances niche complementarities of resource use because trees exist within different horizontal and vertical layers, and strong competition resulted from size differences among trees. It is recommended to include effects of species and structural diversity in forest growth modeling initiatives. Moreover, uneven-aged stand management in conjunction with selective or partial cutting to maintain high structural diversity is also recommended to maintain biodiversity and rapid growth in spruce-dominated forests.
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Constructed wetlands (CWs) are an emerging, environmentally friendly engineering system employed in China. They require lower investment and operation costs while providing higher treatment efficiency and more ecosystem services than conventional wastewater treatment methods. Introduced to China in 1987, CW systems used for wastewater treatment have rapidly increased in number, particularly since the late 1990s. This review summarizes the state‐of‐the‐art application of CW systems for water pollution treatment by reviewing the basics of the technology and its historical development and performance efficiency. Current progress, limitations, future concerns, and the challenges of CW technologies are also discussed. Also highlighted is the need for sufficient and appropriate data to assist in the further development of CW systems and the implementation of integrated “bottom‐up” and “top‐down” approaches by both the public in general and government bodies in particular.
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Abstract The knowledge of potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial vegetation is crucial to understand long‐term global carbon cycle development. Discrepancy in data has long existed between past carbon storage reconstructions since the Last Glacial Maximum by way of pollen, carbon isotopes, and general circulation model (GCM) analysis. This may be due to the fact that these methods do not synthetically take into account significant differences in climate distribution between modern and past conditions, as well as the effects of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on vegetation. In this study, a new method to estimate past biospheric carbon stocks is reported, utilizing a new integrated ecosystem model (PCM) built on a physiological process vegetation model (BIOME4) coupled with a process‐based biospheric carbon model (DEMETER). The PCM was constrained to fit pollen data to obtain realistic estimates. It was estimated that the probability distribution of climatic parameters, as simulated by BIOME4 in an inverse process, was compatible with pollen data while DEMETER successfully simulated carbon storage values with corresponding outputs of BIOME4. The carbon model was validated with present‐day observations of vegetation biomes and soil carbon, and the inversion scheme was tested against 1491 surface pollen spectra sample sites procured in Africa and Eurasia. Results show that this method can successfully simulate biomes and related climates at most selected pollen sites, providing a coefficient of determination ( R ) of 0.83–0.97 between the observed and reconstructed climates, while also showing a consensus with an R ‐value of 0.90–0.96 between the simulated biome average terrestrial carbon variables and the available observations. The results demonstrate the reliability and feasibility of the climate reconstruction method and its potential efficiency in reconstructing past terrestrial carbon storage.