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Abstract Freezing precipitation has major consequences for ground and air transportation, the health of citizens, and power networks. Previous studies using coarse resolution climate models have shown a northward migration of freezing rain in the future. Increased model resolution can better define local topography leading to improved representation of conditions that are favorable for freezing rain. The goal of this study is to examine the climatology and characteristics of future freezing rain events using very-high resolution climate simulations. Historical and pseudo-global warming simulations with a 4-km horizontal grid length were used and compared with available observations. Simulations revealed a northerly shift of freezing rain occurrence, and an increase in the winter. Freezing rain was still shown to occur in the Saint-Lawrence River Valley in a warmer climate, primarily due to stronger wind channeling. Up to 50% of the future freezing rain events also occurred in present day climate within 12 h of each other. In northern Maine, they are typically shorter than 6 h in current climate and longer than 6 h in warmer conditions due to the onset of precipitation during low-pressure systems occurrences. The occurrence of freezing rain also locally increases slightly north of Québec City in a warmer climate because of freezing rain that is produced by warm rain processes. Overall, the study shows that high-resolution regional climate simulations are needed to study freezing rain events in warmer climate conditions, because high horizontal resolutions better define small-scale topographic features and local physical mechanisms that have an influence on these events.

Abstract During near-0°C surface conditions, diverse precipitation types (p-types) are possible, including rain, drizzle, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, ice pellets, wet snow, snow, and snow pellets. Near-0°C precipitation affects wide swaths of the United States and Canada, impacting aviation, road transportation, power generation and distribution, winter recreation, ecology, and hydrology. Fundamental challenges remain in observing, diagnosing, simulating, and forecasting near-0°C p-types, particularly during transitions and within complex terrain. Motivated by these challenges, the field phase of the Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) was conducted from 1 February to 15 March 2022 to better understand how multiscale processes influence the variability and predictability of p-type and amount under near-0°C surface conditions. WINTRE-MIX took place near the U.S.–Canadian border, in northern New York and southern Quebec, a region with plentiful near-0°C precipitation influenced by terrain. During WINTRE-MIX, existing advanced mesonets in New York and Quebec were complemented by deployment of 1) surface instruments, 2) the National Research Council Convair-580 research aircraft with W- and X-band Doppler radars and in situ cloud and aerosol instrumentation, 3) two X-band dual-polarization Doppler radars and a C-band dual-polarization Doppler radar from the University of Illinois, and 4) teams collecting manual hydrometeor observations and radiosonde measurements. Eleven intensive observing periods (IOPs) were coordinated. Analysis of these WINTRE-MIX IOPs is illuminating how synoptic dynamics, mesoscale dynamics, and microscale processes combine to determine p-type and its predictability under near-0°C conditions. WINTRE-MIX research will contribute to improving nowcasts and forecasts of near-0°C precipitation through evaluation and refinement of observational diagnostics and numerical forecast models.

Abstract The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat‐mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

This catalogue includes seasonal mean precipitation fields from simulations and reanalysis used for the calculation of the Spatial Spin-Up Distance (SSUD). A total of seven simulation were conducted using the convection-permitting configuration (2.5-km grid spacing) of version 6 of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM6/GEM5; hereafter denoted as GEM2.5 for simplicity). The CRCM6/GEM5 version used here is based on version 5.0.2 of the Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM5). GEM2.5 simulations were driven directly by the ERA5 reanalysis or by 12-km (GEM12) simulations also performed using the CRCM6/GEM5 model (which was in turn driven by the ERA5 reanalysis). The catalogue comprises seasonal mean precipitation fields from all seven GEM2.5 simulations, from the ERA5 reanalysis and from two GEM12 intermediate simulations (GEM12_SUN and GEM12_P3). Seasonal means were calculated using the common convention: December, January and February (DJF) for winter; March, April and May (MAM) for spring; June, July and August (JJA) for summer; and September, October and November (SON) for fall. Precipitations fields are given in mm/h.

Abstract The increasing atmospheric nitrous oxide (N 2 O) concentration stems from the development of agriculture. However, N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystems have not been explicitly and systematically quantified. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the spatiotemporal magnitudes of the N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystems and determine different contribution factors by improving a process‐based biogeochemical model, TRIPLEX‐GHG v2.0. Model validation suggested that the modeled N 2 O agreed well with field observations under varying management practices at daily, seasonal, and annual steps. Simulated N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystems exhibited significant increasing trends from 0.026 ± 0.0013 to 0.18 ± 0.003 TgN yr −1 from 1910 to 2020, with ∼69.5% emissions attributed to the rice‐growing seasons. Irrigated rice ecosystems accounted for a majority of global rice N 2 O emissions (∼76.9%) because of their higher N 2 O emission rates than rainfed systems. Regarding spatial analysis, Southern China, Northeast India, and Southeast Asia are hotspots for rice‐based N 2 O emissions. Experimental scenarios revealed that N fertilizer is the largest global rice‐N 2 O source, especially since the 1960s (0.047 ± 0.010 TgN yr −1 , 35.24%), while the impact of expanded irrigation plays a minor role. Overall, this study provides a better understanding of the rice‐based ecosystem in the global agricultural N 2 O budget; further, it quantitively demonstrated the central role of N fertilizer in rice‐based N 2 O emissions by including rice crop calendars, covering non‐rice growing seasons, and differentiating the effects of various water regimes and input N forms. Our findings emphasize the significance of co‐management of N fertilizer and water regimes in reducing the net climate impact of global rice cultivation. , Plain Language Summary Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas with ∼300 times greater effect on climate warming than carbon dioxide. Global croplands represent the largest source of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions. However, the contribution of global rice‐based cropping ecosystems to the N 2 O budget remains largely uncertain because of inconsistent observed results. Inspired by the increasing availability of reliable global data sets, we improved and applied a process‐based biogeochemical model by describing the dynamics of various microbial activities to simulate N 2 O emissions from rice‐based ecosystems on a global scale. Model simulations showed that 0.18 million tons of N 2 O‐N were emitted from global rice‐based N 2 O emissions in the 2010s, which was five times larger than that in the 1910s. In the context of regional contribution, southern China, northern India, and Southeast Asia are responsible for more than 80% of the total emissions during 1910–2020. Results suggest that N fertilizer is the most important rice‐N 2 O source quantitively and that increasing irrigation exerts a buffering effect. This study confirmed the potential mitigating effect of co‐managing N fertilizer and irrigation on mitigating rice‐based N 2 O emissions globally. , Key Points N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystem increased from 0.026 to 0.18 TgN yr −1 between 1910 and 2020 Irrigated rice‐based ecosystems showed larger N 2 O fluxes than rainfed rice globally due to higher N fertilizer use and frequent aerations N fertilizer represents the largest N 2 O source, and co‐management of N fertilizer and flooding regimes is important for mitigation

Abstract The increasing atmospheric nitrous oxide (N 2 O) concentration stems from the development of agriculture. However, N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystems have not been explicitly and systematically quantified. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the spatiotemporal magnitudes of the N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystems and determine different contribution factors by improving a process‐based biogeochemical model, TRIPLEX‐GHG v2.0. Model validation suggested that the modeled N 2 O agreed well with field observations under varying management practices at daily, seasonal, and annual steps. Simulated N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystems exhibited significant increasing trends from 0.026 ± 0.0013 to 0.18 ± 0.003 TgN yr −1 from 1910 to 2020, with ∼69.5% emissions attributed to the rice‐growing seasons. Irrigated rice ecosystems accounted for a majority of global rice N 2 O emissions (∼76.9%) because of their higher N 2 O emission rates than rainfed systems. Regarding spatial analysis, Southern China, Northeast India, and Southeast Asia are hotspots for rice‐based N 2 O emissions. Experimental scenarios revealed that N fertilizer is the largest global rice‐N 2 O source, especially since the 1960s (0.047 ± 0.010 TgN yr −1 , 35.24%), while the impact of expanded irrigation plays a minor role. Overall, this study provides a better understanding of the rice‐based ecosystem in the global agricultural N 2 O budget; further, it quantitively demonstrated the central role of N fertilizer in rice‐based N 2 O emissions by including rice crop calendars, covering non‐rice growing seasons, and differentiating the effects of various water regimes and input N forms. Our findings emphasize the significance of co‐management of N fertilizer and water regimes in reducing the net climate impact of global rice cultivation. , Plain Language Summary Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas with ∼300 times greater effect on climate warming than carbon dioxide. Global croplands represent the largest source of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions. However, the contribution of global rice‐based cropping ecosystems to the N 2 O budget remains largely uncertain because of inconsistent observed results. Inspired by the increasing availability of reliable global data sets, we improved and applied a process‐based biogeochemical model by describing the dynamics of various microbial activities to simulate N 2 O emissions from rice‐based ecosystems on a global scale. Model simulations showed that 0.18 million tons of N 2 O‐N were emitted from global rice‐based N 2 O emissions in the 2010s, which was five times larger than that in the 1910s. In the context of regional contribution, southern China, northern India, and Southeast Asia are responsible for more than 80% of the total emissions during 1910–2020. Results suggest that N fertilizer is the most important rice‐N 2 O source quantitively and that increasing irrigation exerts a buffering effect. This study confirmed the potential mitigating effect of co‐managing N fertilizer and irrigation on mitigating rice‐based N 2 O emissions globally. , Key Points N 2 O emissions from global rice‐based ecosystem increased from 0.026 to 0.18 TgN yr −1 between 1910 and 2020 Irrigated rice‐based ecosystems showed larger N 2 O fluxes than rainfed rice globally due to higher N fertilizer use and frequent aerations N fertilizer represents the largest N 2 O source, and co‐management of N fertilizer and flooding regimes is important for mitigation