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Abstract. Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) with 200 members for the historical simulation (1850–2005), we investigate the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. In particular, we select three eruptions (El Chichón, Agung and Pinatubo) in which the aerosol is respectively confined to the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere or equally distributed across the Equator. Our results show that relative ENSO anomalies start at the end of the year of the eruption and peak in the following one. We especially found that when the aerosol is located in the Northern Hemisphere or is symmetrically distributed, relative El Niño-like anomalies develop, while aerosol distribution confined to the Southern Hemisphere leads to a relative La Niña-like anomaly. Our results point to the volcanically induced displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as a key mechanism that drives the ENSO response, while suggesting that the other mechanisms (the ocean dynamical thermostat and the cooling of tropical northern Africa or the Maritime Continent) commonly invoked to explain the post-eruption ENSO response may be less important in our model.

Methane (CH4) is one of the three most important greenhouse gases. To date, observations of ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) fluxes in forests are currently lacking in the global CH4 budget. The environmental factors controlling CH4 flux dynamics remain poorly understood at the ecosystem scale. In this study, we used a state-of-the-art eddy covariance technique to continuously measure the CH4 flux from 2016 to 2018 in a subtropical forest of Zhejiang Province in China, quantify the annual CH4 budget and investigate its control factors. We found that the total annual CH4 budget was 1.15 ± 0.28~4.79 ± 0.49 g CH4 m−2 year−1 for 2017–2018. The daily CH4 flux reached an emission peak of 0.145 g m−2 d−1 during winter and an uptake peak of −0.142 g m−2 d−1 in summer. During the whole study period, the studied forest region acted as a CH4 source (78.65%) during winter and a sink (21.35%) in summer. Soil temperature had a negative relationship (p < 0.01; R2 = 0.344) with CH4 flux but had a positive relationship with soil moisture (p < 0.01; R2 = 0.348). Our results showed that soil temperature and moisture were the most important factors controlling the ecosystem-scale CH4 flux dynamics of subtropical forests in the Tianmu Mountain Nature Reserve in Zhejiang Province, China. Subtropical forest ecosystems in China acted as a net source of methane emissions from 2016 to 2018, providing positive feedback to global climate warming.

Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth archives offer rare opportunities to observe the complex interaction between environmental and human systems under different climate regimes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The archaeology of climate change offers opportunities to identify the factors that promoted human resilience in the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present, contributing a much-needed, long-term perspective to climate research. One of the strengths of the archaeological record is the cultural diversity it encompasses, which offers alternatives to the solutions proposed from within the Western agro-industrial complex, which might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary climate discourse focuses on the importance of biodiversity, we highlight the importance of cultural diversity as a source of resilience.

Understanding the impacts of nitrogen (N) addition on soil respiration (RS) and its temperature sensitivity (Q10) in tropical forests is very important for the global carbon cycle in a changing environment. Here, we investigated how RS respond to N addition in a tropical montane rainforest in Southern China. Four levels of N treatments (0, 25, 50, and 100 kg N ha−1 a−1 as control (CK), low N (N25), moderate N (N50), and high N (N100), respectively) were established in September 2010. Based on a static chamber-gas chromatography method, RS was measured from January 2015 to December 2018. RS exhibited significant seasonal variability, with low RS rates appeared in the dry season and high rates appeared in the wet season regardless of treatment. RS was significantly related to the measured soil temperature and moisture. Our results showed that soil RS increased after N additions, the mean annual RS was 7% higher in N25 plots, 8% higher in N50 plots, and 11% higher in N100 plots than that in the CK plots. However, the overall impacts of N additions on RS were statistically insignificant. For the entire study period, the CK, N25, N50, and N100 treatments yielded Q10 values of 2.27, 3.45, 4.11, and 2.94, respectively. N addition increased the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of RS. Our results suggest that increasing atmospheric N deposition may have a large impact on the stimulation of soil CO2 emissions from tropical rainforests in China.

Abstract. Previous studies based on multiple paleoclimate archives suggested a prominent intensification of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) during the mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6000 years before present). The main forcing that contributed to this intensification is related to changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. Nonetheless, other key factors likely played important roles, including remote changes in vegetation cover and airborne dust emission. In particular, northern Africa also experienced much wetter conditions and a more mesic landscape than today during the MH (the so-called African Humid Period), leading to a large decrease in airborne dust globally. However, most modeling studies investigating the SAM changes during the Holocene overlooked the potential impacts of the vegetation and dust emission changes that took place over northern Africa. Here, we use a set of simulations for the MH climate, in which vegetation over the Sahara and reduced dust concentrations are considered. Our results show that SAM rainfall is strongly affected by Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations, with a large increase in particular over northwestern India and a lengthening of the monsoon season. We propose that this remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.

In sub-Saharan Africa growing season precipitation is affected by climate change. Due to this, in Cameroon, it is uncertain how some crops are vulnerable to growing season precipitation. Here, an assessment of the vulnerability of maize, millet, and rice to growing season precipitation is carried out at a national scale and validated at four sub-national scales/sites. The data collected were historical yield, precipitation, and adaptive capacity data for the period 1961–2019 for the national scale analysis and 1991–2016 for the sub-national scale analysis. The crop yield data were collected for maize, millet, and rice from FAOSTAT and the global yield gap atlas to assess the sensitivity both nationally and sub-nationally. Historical data on mean crop growing season and mean annul precipitation were collected from a collaborative database of UNDP/Oxford University and the climate portal of the World Bank to assess the exposure both nationally and sub-nationally. To assess adaptive capacity, literacy, and poverty rate proxies for both the national and regional scales were collected from KNOEMA and the African Development Bank. These data were analyzed using a vulnerability index that is based on sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. The national scale results show that millet has the lowest vulnerability index while rice has the highest. An inverse relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity is observed. Rice has the lowest adaptive capacity and the highest vulnerability index. Sub-nationally, this work has shown that northern maize is the most vulnerable crop followed by western highland rice. This work underscores the fact that at different scales, crops are differentially vulnerable due to variations in precipitation, temperature, soils, access to farm inputs, exposure to crop pest and variations in literacy and poverty rates. Therefore, caution should be taken when transitioning from one scale to another to avoid generalization. Despite these differences, in the sub-national scale, western highland rice is observed as the second most vulnerable crop, an observation similar to the national scale observation.

The objective of this study was to estimate economic losses associated with milk performance detriments under different climate scenarios. A dataset containing milk records of Holstein and daily temperature–humidity indexes compiled over 6 yr in two contrasting climatic dairy regions of Quebec [eastern (EQ) and southwestern Quebec (SWQ)] was used to develop equations for modeling milk performance. Milk performance, including milk, fat, protein, and lactose yields of dairy herds (kg·d −1 ), were then projected considering six plausible climate scenarios during a climatic reference period (REF: 1971–2000) and two future periods (FUT1: 2020–2049; FUT2: 2050–2079). Economic losses were assessed by comparing future to reference milk prices based on components. Results indicated that fat and protein yields could decline in the future, thus resulting in economic losses ranging from $5.34 to $7.07 CAD·hL −1 in EQ and from $5.03 to $6.99 CAD·hL −1 in SWQ, depending on the amplitude of future temperature and humidity changes and on whether it is milk quota or cow number which is adjusted to avoid under-quota production. The projected increase in occurrence and duration of heat stress episodes under climate change could result in substantial financial harm for producers, thereby reinforcing the necessity of implementing heat-abatement strategies on dairy farms.

Higher boreal summer insolation in the early to middle Holocene drove thousands of years of summer warming across the Arctic. Modern-day warming has distinctly different causes, but geologic data from this past warm period hold lessons for the future. We compile Holocene temperature reconstructions from ice, lake, and marine cores around Greenland, where summer temperatures are globally important due to their influence on ice sheet mass balance, ocean circulation, and sea ice. Highlighting and accounting for some key issues with proxy interpretation, we find that much of Greenland experienced summers 3 to 5°C warmer than the mid-twentieth century in the early Holocene—earlier and stronger warming than often presumed. Warmth had dramatic consequences: Many glaciers disappeared, perennial sea ice retreated, plants and animals migrated northward, the Greenland Ice Sheet shrank rapidly, and increased meltwater discharge led to strong marine water stratification and enhanced winter sea ice in some areas. ▪  Summer air temperatures and open ocean temperatures around much of Greenland peaked in the early Holocene in response to elevated summer insolation. ▪  Peak summer air temperatures ranged from 3 to 5°C warmer than the mid-twentieth century in northwest and central Greenland to perhaps 1 to 2°C warmer in south Greenland. ▪  Many differences between records can be explained by proxy seasonality, ice sheet elevation changes, vegetation analogs and lags, and the nearshore effects of ice sheet meltwater. ▪  Early Holocene warmth dramatically affected glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet; meltwater discharge, nearshore ocean salinity, and sea ice; and diverse flora and fauna.

Abstract In the future, the intensity, phases, and frequency of precipitation are expected to change due to global warming, in particular during colder seasons when temperatures are near 0°C. To investigate the impacts of warmer atmospheric conditions on the microphysical processes that lead to several precipitation types, the extreme 1998 Ice Storm was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with and without a pseudo‐global warming. The pseudo‐global warming approach simulates similar large‐scale conditions but in warmer conditions, which allows for the assessment of thermodynamic feedback from cloud and precipitation microphysics. For both simulations, WRF was coupled with the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) bulk microphysics scheme that predicts the liquid fraction of mixed‐phase particles. Results of the pseudo‐global warming simulation show an increase of ∼828 m in the upper 0°C level and a northeastward migration (∼60 km) of the rain‐snow transition region. The results also show a 20% decrease in domain‐averaged freezing rain amounts, but with an increased maximum amount of 50%. The horizontal distance associated with a melting aloft and a refreezing layer near the surface is 105 km longer in southern Quebec due to the combined effects of the pseudo‐warming and the presence of the Appalachian Mountains. The microphysical processes that lead to precipitation are impacted as well; the increased ice mass and riming conditions aloft in warmer temperatures result in higher liquid precipitation rates. This study contributes to our understanding of the changes in the fine‐scale processes of an extreme storm, simulated with pseudo‐global warming conditions. , Key Points The major 1998 Ice Storm was simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with and without a pseudo‐global warming A higher melting layer in warmer conditions led to more riming aloft, larger drops, and higher maximum amounts of rain and freezing rain The precipitation type transition region is wider in the warmer conditions over the geographical areas of both southern Quebec and Maine

The alpine meadow of Zoige Plateau plays a key role in local livestock production of cattle and sheep. However, it remains unclear how animal grazing or its intensity affect nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and the main driving factors. A grazing experiment including four grazing intensities (G0, G0.7, G1.2, G1.6 yak ha−1) was conducted between January 2013 and December 2014 to evaluate the soil nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes under different grazing intensities in an alpine meadow on the eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China. The N2O fluxes were examined with gas collected by the static chamber method and by chromatographic concentration analysis. N2O emissions in the growing seasons (from May to September) were lower than that in non-growing seasons (from October to April) in 2013, 1.94 ± 0.30 to 3.37 ± 0.56 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1. Annual mean N2O emission rates were calculated as 1.17 ± 0.50 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1 in non-grazing land (G0) and 1.94 ± 0.23 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1 in the grazing land (G0.7, G1.2, and G1.6). The annual mean N2O flux showed no significant differences between grazing treatments in 2013. However, there were significantly greater fluxes from the G0.7 treatment than from the G1.6 treatment in 2014, especially in the growing season. Over the two years, the soil N2O emission rate was significantly negatively correlated with soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content as well as positively correlated with soil available phosphorus (P). No relationship was observed between soil N2O emission rate and temperature or rainfall. Our results showed that the meadow soils acted as a source of N2O for most periods and turned into a weak sink of N2O later during the sampling period. Our results highlight the importance of proper grazing intensity in reducing N2O emissions from alpine meadow. The interaction between grazing intensity and N2O emissions should be of more concern during future management of pastures in Zoige Plateau.

Abstract. The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land–hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.

Few studies have focused on the combined impact of climate change, CO2, and land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the evaluation of the impact of LUCC on net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, we simulated the overall NPP change trend from 2010 to 2100 and its response to climatic factors, CO2 concentration, and LUCC conditions under three typical emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). (1) Under the predicted global pattern, NPP showed an increasing trend, with the most prominent variation at the end of the century. The increasing trend is mainly caused by the positive effect of CO2 on NPP. However, the increasing trend of LUCC has only a small positive effect. (2) Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, from 2090 to 2100, CO2 has the most significant positive impact on tropical areas, reaching 8.328 Pg C Yr−1. Under the same conditions, climate change has the greatest positive impact on the northern high latitudes (1.175 Pg C Yr−1), but it has the greatest negative impact on tropical areas, reaching −4.842 Pg C Yr−1. (3) The average contribution rate of LUCC to NPP was 6.14%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, LUCC made the largest positive contribution on NPP (0.542 Pg C Yr−1) globally from 2010 to 2020.

Intense and frequent drought events strongly affect plant survival. Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are important “buffers” to maintain plant functions under drought conditions. We conducted a drought manipulation experiment using three-year-old Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. seedlings. The seedlings were first treated under different drought intensities (i.e., no irrigation, severe, and moderate) for 50 days, and then they were re-watered for 25 days to explore the dynamics of NSCs in the leaves, twigs, stems, and roots. The results showed that the no irrigation and severe drought treatments significantly reduced photosynthetic rate by 93.9% and 32.6% for 30 days, respectively, leading to the depletion of the starch storage for hydraulic repair, osmotic adjustment, and plant metabolism. The seedlings under moderate drought condition also exhibited starch storage consumption in leaves and twigs. After re-watering, the reduced photosynthetic rate recovered to the control level within five days in the severe drought group but showed no sign of recovery in the no irrigation group. The seedlings under the severe and moderate drought conditions tended to invest newly fixed C to starch storage and hydraulic repair instead of growth due to the “drought legacy effect”. Our findings suggest the depletion and recovery of starch storage are important strategies for P. tabulaeformis seedlings, and they may play key roles in plant resistance and resilience under environmental stress.

Abstract. We use a high-resolution regional climate model to investigate the changes in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity during the period of the mid-Holocene (MH: 6000 years BP) with a larger amplitude of the seasonal cycle relative to today. This period was characterized by increased boreal summer insolation over the Northern Hemisphere, a vegetated Sahara and reduced airborne dust concentrations. A set of sensitivity experiments was conducted in which solar insolation, vegetation and dust concentrations were changed in turn to disentangle their impacts on TC activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Results show that the greening of the Sahara and reduced dust loadings (MHGS+RD) lead to a larger increase in the number of Atlantic TCs (27 %) relative to the pre-industrial (PI) climate than the orbital forcing alone (MHPMIP; 9 %). The TC seasonality is also highly modified in the MH climate, showing a decrease in TC activity during the beginning of the hurricane season (June to August), with a shift of its maximum towards October and November in the MHGS+RD experiment relative to PI. MH experiments simulate stronger hurricanes compared to PI, similar to future projections. Moreover, they suggest longer-lasting cyclones relative to PI. Our results also show that changes in the African easterly waves are not relevant in altering the frequency and intensity of TCs, but they may shift the location of their genesis. This work highlights the importance of considering vegetation and dust changes over the Sahara region when investigating TC activity under a different climate state.

Abstract. The continental divide along the spine of the Canadian Rockies in southwestern Canada is a critical headwater region for hydrological drainages to the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic oceans. Major flooding events are typically attributed to heavy precipitation on its eastern side due to upslope (easterly) flows. Precipitation can also occur on the western side of the divide when moisture originating from the Pacific Ocean encounters the west-facing slopes of the Canadian Rockies. Often, storms propagating across the divide result in significant precipitation on both sides. Meteorological data over this critical region are sparse, with few stations located at high elevations. Given the importance of all these types of events, the Storms and Precipitation Across the continental Divide Experiment (SPADE) was initiated to enhance our knowledge of the atmospheric processes leading to storms and precipitation on either side of the continental divide. This was accomplished by installing specialized meteorological instrumentation on both sides of the continental divide and carrying out manual observations during an intensive field campaign from 24 April–26 June 2019. On the eastern side, there were two field sites: (i) at Fortress Mountain Powerline (2076 m a.s.l.) and (ii) at Fortress Junction Service, located in a high-elevation valley (1580 m a.s.l.). On the western side, Nipika Mountain Resort, also located in a valley (1087 m a.s.l.), was chosen as a field site. Various meteorological instruments were deployed including two Doppler light detection and ranging instruments (lidars), three vertically pointing micro rain radars, and three optical disdrometers. The three main sites were nearly identically instrumented, and observers were on site at Fortress Mountain Powerline and Nipika Mountain Resort during precipitation events to take manual observations of precipitation type and microphotographs of solid particles. The objective of the field campaign was to gather high-temporal-frequency meteorological data and to compare the different conditions on either side of the divide to study the precipitation processes that can lead to catastrophic flooding in the region. Details on field sites, instrumentation used, and collection methods are discussed. Data from the study are publicly accessible from the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0221 (Thériault et al., 2020). This dataset will be used to study atmospheric conditions associated with precipitation events documented simultaneously on either side of a continental divide. This paper also provides a sample of the data gathered during a precipitation event.

Abstract Forest soils play an important role in controlling global warming by reducing atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations. However, little attention has been paid to how nitrogen (N) deposition may alter microorganism communities that are related to the CH 4 cycle or CH 4 oxidation in subtropical forest soils. We investigated the effects of N addition (0, 30, 60, or 90 kg N ha −1  yr −1 ) on soil CH 4 flux and methanotroph and methanogen abundance, diversity, and community structure in a Moso bamboo ( Phyllostachys edulis ) forest in subtropical China. N addition significantly increased methanogen abundance but reduced both methanotroph and methanogen diversity. Methanotroph and methanogen community structures under the N deposition treatments were significantly different from those of the control. In N deposition treatments, the relative abundance of Methanoculleus was significantly lower than that in the control. Soil pH was the key factor regulating the changes in methanotroph and methanogen diversity and community structure. The CH 4 emission rate increased with N addition and was negatively correlated with both methanotroph and methanogen diversity but positively correlated with methanogen abundance. Overall, our results suggested that N deposition can suppress CH 4 uptake by altering methanotroph and methanogen abundance, diversity, and community structure in subtropical Moso bamboo forest soils.

Abstract Ecosystem-level effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on the phosphorus (P) cycle and P use strategy are poorly understood. Here, we conducted a seven year N-addition experiment to comprehensively evaluate the effects of N deposition on P limitation, cycling, and use strategy in a subtropical Moso bamboo forest. N addition significantly increased foliar litterfall by 4.7%–21.7% and subsequent P return to the soil by 49.0%–70.1%. It also increased soil acidity, acid phosphatase activity, and soil microbial biomass P, which substantially contributed to a significantly increased soil P availability and largely alleviated the P limitation. This resulted in a significant decrease in the foliar P-resorption efficiency and the abundance and colonization of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Our results indicate that N deposition can reduce plant internal cycling while enhancing ecosystem-scale cycling of P in Moso bamboo forests. This suggests a shift in P use from a ‘conservative consumption’ strategy to a ‘resource spending’ strategy. Our findings shed new light on N deposition effects on P cycle processes and P use strategy at the ecosystem scale under increasing atmospheric N deposition.

Abstract Vegetation restoration has been proposed as an effective measure for rehabilitating degraded land and slowing desertification in arid regions. However, the spatial variation in soil quality and plant diversity following vegetation restoration remains unclear. This study was designed to explore soil nutrient dynamics and how soil nutrients affect plant diversity and spatial heterogeneity after shrub restoration. We assessed the effect of Haloxylon ammodendron (C.A.Mey.) Bunge (which has been planted over 30 years) on the soil nutrients and plant diversity in a desert–oasis ecotone in Minqin County, Gansu, China, using geostatistics, beta diversity and rarefaction analyses, and Hill number extrapolation. Soil nutrients, including soil organic matter, total nitrogen, and alkali nitrogen, increased significantly after H. ammodendron planting. Species richness gradually increased from 1–5 years to 10–20 years after H. ammodendron was planted but then decreased at 20–30 years. The largest differences in plant composition were observed at 15 and 20 years. Plant diversity increased in the whole 30 years after shrub planting, increasing in the first 25 years and then decreasing at 26–30 year stage. The maximum coefficient of determination for the spatial heterogeneity model fit was 0.84 (25 years). The spatial heterogeneity in vegetation decreased with increasing soil available K content at 1–10 years. Our results suggest that planting shrubs can improve soil conditions and plant species diversity in desert–oasis ecotones and soil nutrients have a strong influence on plant diversity patterns and spatial heterogeneity following vegetation restoration.