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Abstract Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, on global soil N 2 O emissions for the period 1861–2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N 2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N 2 O‐N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N 2 O‐N/year in the recent decade (2007–2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N 2 O‐N/year to 3.3 Tg N 2 O‐N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N 2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N 2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N 2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N 2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N 2 O‐N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration reduced soil N 2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N 2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process‐based simulations.
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Abstract Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N 2 O fluxes and the key drivers of N 2 O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N 2 O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N 2 O fluxes in each model and identify the uncertainty sources from model structure, input data, and parameters; 2) quantify the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of global and regional N 2 O fluxes from the preindustrial period (1860) to present and attribute the relative contributions of multiple environmental factors to N 2 O dynamics; and 3) provide a benchmarking estimate of N 2 O fluxes through synthesizing the multimodel simulation results and existing estimates from ground-based observations, inventories, and statistical and empirical extrapolations. This study provides detailed descriptions for the NMIP protocol, input data, model structure, and key parameters, along with preliminary simulation results. The global and regional N 2 O estimation derived from the NMIP is a key component of the global N 2 O budget synthesis activity jointly led by the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative.