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Wetlands are an important natural source of methane (CH4), so it is important to quantify how their emissions may vary under future climate change conditions. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau contains more than a third of China’s wetlands. Here, we simulated temporal and spatial variation in CH4 emissions from natural wetlands on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2008 to 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Based on the simulation results of the TRIPLEX-GHG model forced with data from 24 CMIP5 models of global climate, we predict that, assuming no change in wetland distribution on the Plateau, CH4 emissions from natural wetlands will increase by 35%, 98% and 267%, respectively, under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The predicted increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration will contribute 10–28% to the increased CH4 emissions from wetlands on the Plateau by 2100. Emissions are predicted to be majorly in the range of 0 to 30.5 g C m−2·a−1 across the Plateau and higher from wetlands in the southern region of the Plateau than from wetlands in central or northern regions. Under RCP8.5, the methane emissions of natural wetlands on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau increased much more significantly than that under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5.

The carbon use efficiency (CUE) of ecosystems, expressed as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP), is extremely sensitive to climate change and has a great effect on the carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change leads to changes in vegetation, resulting in different CUE values, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. However, the change trend and the intrinsic mechanism of climate effects on CUE in the future climate change scenario are not clear in this region. Based on the scheme of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), we analyze the simulation results of the five models of the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) under three different typical future climate scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2015–2100 with methods of model-averaging to average the long-term forecast of the five several well-known forecast models for three alternative climate scenarios with three radiative forcing levels to discuss the CUE changes and a structural equations modeling (SEM) approach to examine how the trends in GPP, NPP, and CUE related to different climate factors. The results show that (1) GPP and NPP demonstrated an upward trend in a long time series of 86 years, and the upward trend became increasingly substantial with the increase in radiation forcing; (2) the ecosystem CUE of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease in the long time series in the future, and it shows a substantial decreasing trend with the increase in radiation forcing; and (3) the dominant climate factor affecting CUE is temperature of the factors included in these models, which affects CUE mainly through GPP and NPP to produce indirect effects. Temperature has a higher comprehensive effect on CUE than precipitation and CO2, which are negative effects on CUE on an annual scale. Our finding that the CUE decreases in the future suggests that we must pay more attention to the vegetation and CUE changes, which will produce great effects on the regional carbon dynamics and balance.

Abstract Ecosystem-level effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on the phosphorus (P) cycle and P use strategy are poorly understood. Here, we conducted a seven year N-addition experiment to comprehensively evaluate the effects of N deposition on P limitation, cycling, and use strategy in a subtropical Moso bamboo forest. N addition significantly increased foliar litterfall by 4.7%–21.7% and subsequent P return to the soil by 49.0%–70.1%. It also increased soil acidity, acid phosphatase activity, and soil microbial biomass P, which substantially contributed to a significantly increased soil P availability and largely alleviated the P limitation. This resulted in a significant decrease in the foliar P-resorption efficiency and the abundance and colonization of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Our results indicate that N deposition can reduce plant internal cycling while enhancing ecosystem-scale cycling of P in Moso bamboo forests. This suggests a shift in P use from a ‘conservative consumption’ strategy to a ‘resource spending’ strategy. Our findings shed new light on N deposition effects on P cycle processes and P use strategy at the ecosystem scale under increasing atmospheric N deposition.

Although rice paddy fields are one of the world’s largest anthropogenic sources of methane CH4, the budget of ecosystem CH4 and its’ controls in rice paddies remain unclear. Here, we analyze seasonal dynamics of direct ecosystem-scale measurements of CH4 flux in a rice-wheat rotation agroecosystem over 3 consecutive years. Results showed that the averaged CO2 uptakes and CH4 emissions in rice seasons were 2.2 and 20.9 folds of the wheat seasons, respectively. In sum, the wheat-rice rotation agroecosystem acted as a large net C sink (averaged 460.79 g C m−2) and a GHG (averaged 174.38 g CO2eq m−2) source except for a GHG sink in one year (2016) with a very high rice seeding density. While the linear correlation between daily CH4 fluxes and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was not significant for the whole rice season, daily CH4 fluxes were significantly correlated to daily GEP both before (R2: 0.52–0.83) and after the mid-season drainage (R2: 0.71–0.79). Furthermore, the F partial test showed that GEP was much greater than that of any other variable including soil temperature for the rice season in each year. Meanwhile, the parameters of the best-fit functions between daily CH4 fluxes and GEP shifted between rice growth stages. This study highlights that GEP is a good predictor of daily CH4 fluxes in rice paddies.

Rapid urbanization has led to the continuous deterioration of the surrounding natural ecosystem. It is important to identify the key urbanization factors that affect ecosystem services and analyze the potential effects of these factors on the ecosystem. We selected the Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration to investigate these effects, and designed three indicators to map the urbanization level: Population density, gross domestic product (GDP) density, and the construction land proportion. Four indicators were chosen to quantify ecosystem services: Food production, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, water conservation, and soil conservation. To handle the nonlinear interactions, we used a random forest (RF) method to assess the effect of urbanization on ecosystem services in the BTH area from 2000 to 2014. Our study demonstrated that population density and economic growth were the internal driving forces affecting ecosystem services. We observed changing trends in the effect of urbanization: The effect of population density on ecosystem services increased, the effect of the proportion of construction land was consistent with population density, and the effect of GDP density on ecosystem services decreased. Our results suggest that controlling the population and GDP would significantly influence the sustainable development in large urban areas.

Abstract Background In recent decades the future of global forests has been a matter of increasing concern, particularly in relation to the threat of forest ecosystem responses under potential climate change. To the future predictions of these responses, the current forest biomass carbon storage (FCS) should first be clarified as much as possible, especially at national scales. However, few studies have introduced how to verify an FCS estimate by delimiting the reasonable ranges. This paper addresses an estimation of national FCS and its verification using two-step process to narrow the uncertainty. Our study focuses on a methodology for reducing the uncertainty resulted by converting from growing stock volume to above- and below-ground biomass (AB biomass), so as to eliminate the significant bias in national scale estimations. Methods We recommend splitting the estimation into two parts, one part for stem and the other part for AB biomass to preclude possible significant bias. Our method estimates the stem biomass from volume and wood density (WD), and converts the AB biomass from stem biomass by using allometric relationships. Results Based on the presented two-step process, the estimation of China’s FCS is performed as an example to explicate how to infer the ranges of national FCS. The experimental results demonstrate a national FCS estimation within the reasonable ranges (relative errors: + 4.46% and − 4.44%), e.g., 5.6–6.1 PgC for China’s forest ecosystem at the beginning of the 2010s. These ranges are less than 0.52 PgC for confirming each FCS estimate of different periods during the last 40 years. In addition, our results suggest the upper-limits by specifying a highly impractical value of WD (0.7 t∙m − 3 ) on the national scale. As a control reference, this value decides what estimate is impossible to achieve for the FCS estimates. Conclusions Presented methodological analysis highlights the possibility to determine a range that the true value could be located in. The two-step process will help to verify national FCS and also to reduce uncertainty in related studies. While the true value of national FCS is immeasurable, our work should motivate future studies that explore new estimations to approach the true value by narrowing the uncertainty in FCS estimations on national and global scales.

Machine learning, an important branch of artificial intelligence, is increasingly being applied in sciences such as forest ecology. Here, we review and discuss three commonly used methods of machine learning (ML) including decision-tree learning, artificial neural network, and support vector machine and their applications in four different aspects of forest ecology over the last decade. These applications include: (i) species distribution models, (ii) carbon cycles, (iii) hazard assessment and prediction, and (iv) other applications in forest management. Although ML approaches are useful for classification, modeling, and prediction in forest ecology research, further expansion of ML technologies is limited by the lack of suitable data and the relatively “higher threshold” of applications. However, the combined use of multiple algorithms and improved communication and cooperation between ecological researchers and ML developers still present major challenges and tasks for the betterment of future ecological research. We suggest that future applications of ML in ecology will become an increasingly attractive tool for ecologists in the face of “big data” and that ecologists will gain access to more types of data such as sound and video in the near future, possibly opening new avenues of research in forest ecology.

Abstract Canada's boreal forests, which occupy approximately 30% of boreal forests worldwide, play an important role in the global carbon budget. However, there is little quantitative information available regarding the spatiotemporal changes in the drought‐induced tree mortality of Canada's boreal forests overall and their associated impacts on biomass carbon dynamics. Here, we develop spatiotemporally explicit estimates of drought‐induced tree mortality and corresponding biomass carbon sink capacity changes in Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020. We show that the average annual tree mortality rate is approximately 2.7%. Approximately 43% of Canada's boreal forests have experienced significantly increasing tree mortality trends (71% of which are located in the western region of the country), and these trends have accelerated since 2002. This increase in tree mortality has resulted in significant biomass carbon losses at an approximate rate of 1.51 ± 0.29 MgC ha −1  year −1 (95% confidence interval) with an approximate total loss of 0.46 ± 0.09 PgC year −1 (95% confidence interval). Under the drought condition increases predicted for this century, the capacity of Canada's boreal forests to act as a carbon sink will be further reduced, potentially leading to a significant positive climate feedback effect.

Abstract Biome‐specific soil respiration (Rs) has important yet different roles in both the carbon cycle and climate change from regional to global scales. To date, no comparable studies related to global biome‐specific Rs have been conducted applying comprehensive global Rs databases. The goal of this study was to develop artificial neural network ( ANN ) models capable of spatially estimating global Rs and to evaluate the effects of interannual climate variations on 10 major biomes. We used 1976 annual Rs field records extracted from global Rs literature to train and test the ANN models. We determined that the best ANN model for predicting biome‐specific global annual Rs was the one that applied mean annual temperature ( MAT ), mean annual precipitation ( MAP ), and biome type as inputs ( r 2  = 0.60). The ANN models reported an average global Rs of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C yr −1 from 1960 to 2012 and an increasing trend in average global annual Rs of 0.04 Pg C yr −1 . Estimated annual Rs increased with increases in MAT and MAP in cropland, boreal forest, grassland, shrubland, and wetland biomes. Additionally, estimated annual Rs decreased with increases in MAT and increased with increases in MAP in desert and tundra biomes, and only significantly decreased with increases in MAT ( r 2  = 0.87) in the savannah biome. The developed biome‐specific global Rs database for global land and soil carbon models will aid in understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in soil carbon dynamics and in quantifying uncertainty in the global soil carbon cycle. , Key Points Predict biome‐specific global soil respiration from 1960 to 2012 using an artificial neural network model Prediction determined an average global soil respiration of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C yr −1 and an increasing trend of 0.04 Pg C yr −1 The 10 biome‐specific soil respiration estimates made it possible to trace different responses to global climate change in each biome