Flooding Related Consequences of Climate Change on Canadian Cities and Flow Regulation Infrastructure - Gaur, Ayushi; Gaur, Abhishek; Yamazaki, Dai; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Water, 2019)
This study discusses the flooding related consequences of climate change on most populous Canadian cities and flow regulation infrastructure (FRI). The discussion is based on the aggregated results of historical and projected future flooding frequencies and flood timing as generated by Canada-wide hydrodynamic modelling in a previous study. Impact assessment on 100 most populous Canadian cities indicate that future flooding frequencies in some of the most populous cities such as Toronto and Montreal can be expected to increase from 100 (250) years to 15 (22) years by the end of the 21st century making these cities highest at risk to projected changes in flooding frequencies as a consequence of climate change. Overall 40–60% of the analyzed cities are found to be associated with future increases in flooding frequencies and associated increases in flood hazard and flood risk. The flooding related impacts of climate change on 1072 FRIs located across Canada are assessed both in terms of projected changes in future flooding frequencies and changes in flood timings. Results suggest that 40–50% of the FRIs especially those located in southern Ontario, western coastal regions, and northern regions of Canada can be expected to experience future increases in flooding frequencies. FRIs located in many of these regions are also projected to experience future changes in flood timing underlining that operating rules for those FRIs may need to be reassessed to make them resilient to changing climate.

Temporal and Spatial Amplification of Extreme Rainfall and Extreme Floods in a Warmer Climate - Faghih, Mina; Brissette, François (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2023)
Abstract This work explores the relationship between catchment size, rainfall duration, and future streamflow increases on 133 North American catchments with sizes ranging from 66.5 to 9886 km2. It uses the outputs from a high spatial (0.11°) and temporal (1-h) resolution single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) and a hydrological model to compute extreme rainfall and streamflow for durations ranging from 1 to 72 h and for return periods of between 2 and 300 years. Increases in extreme precipitation are observed across all durations and return periods. The projected increases are strongly related to duration, frequency, and catchment size, with the shortest durations, longest return periods, and smaller catchments witnessing the largest relative rainfall increases. These increases can be quite significant, with the 100-yr rainfall becoming up to 20 times more frequent over the smaller catchments. A similar duration–frequency–size pattern of increases is also observed for future extreme streamflow, but with even larger relative increases. These results imply that future increases in extreme rainfall will disproportionately impact smaller catchments, and particularly so for impervious urban catchments which are typically small, and whose stormwater drainage infrastructures are designed for long-return-period flows, both being conditions for which the amplification of future flow will be maximized.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Septembre_2023

Flood Hazard Risk Mapping Using a Pseudo Supervised Random Forest - Esfandiari, Morteza; Abdi, Ghasem; Jabari, Shabnam; McGrath, Heather; Coleman, David (Remote Sensing, 2020)
Devastating floods occur regularly around the world. Recently, machine learning models have been used for flood susceptibility mapping. However, even when these algorithms are provided with adequate ground truth training samples, they can fail to predict flood extends reliably. On the other hand, the height above nearest drainage (HAND) model can produce flood prediction maps with limited accuracy. The objective of this research is to produce an accurate and dynamic flood modeling technique to produce flood maps as a function of water level by combining the HAND model and machine learning. In this paper, the HAND model was utilized to generate a preliminary flood map; then, the predictions of the HAND model were used to produce pseudo training samples for a R.F. model. To improve the R.F. training stage, five of the most effective flood mapping conditioning factors are used, namely, Altitude, Slope, Aspect, Distance from River and Land use/cover map. In this approach, the R.F. model is trained to dynamically estimate the flood extent with the pseudo training points acquired from the HAND model. However, due to the limited accuracy of the HAND model, a random sample consensus (RANSAC) method was used to detect outliers. The accuracy of the proposed model for flood extent prediction, was tested on different flood events in the city of Fredericton, NB, Canada in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019. Furthermore, to ensure that the proposed model can produce accurate flood maps in other areas as well, it was also tested on the 2019 flood in Gatineau, QC, Canada. Accuracy assessment metrics, such as overall accuracy, Cohen’s kappa coefficient, Matthews correlation coefficient, true positive rate (TPR), true negative rate (TNR), false positive rate (FPR) and false negative rate (FNR), were used to compare the predicted flood extent of the study areas, to the extent estimated by the HAND model and the extent imaged by Sentinel-2 and Landsat satellites. The results confirm that the proposed model can improve the flood extent prediction of the HAND model without using any ground truth training data.

Superstorm Sandy and the Demographics of Flood Risk in New York City - Faber, Jacob William (Human Ecology, 2015)

Does development reduce fatalities from natural disasters? New evidence for floods - Ferreira, Susana; Hamilton, Kirk; Vincent, Jeffrey R. (Environment and Development Economics, 2013)
We analyze the impact of development on flood fatalities using a new data set of 2,171 large floods in 92 countries between 1985 and 2008. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that development results in fewer fatalities during natural disasters. Results indicating that higher income and better governance reduce fatalities during flood events do not hold up when unobserved country heterogeneity and within-country correlation of standard errors are taken into account. We find that income does have a significant, indirect effect on flood fatalities by affecting flood frequency and flood magnitude, but this effect is nonmonotonic, with net reductions in fatalities occurring only in lower income countries. We find little evidence that improved governance affects flood fatalities either directly or indirectly.

Establishing perennial strips in a cultivated floodplain for habitat restoration: monitoring over 4 years and success drivers - Damar, Hada; Vaillancourt, Mathieu; Bourgeois, Bérenger; Poulin, Monique (Restoration Ecology, 2024)
Floodplains, one of the most biologically diverse and productive ecosystems, are under threat from intensive crop production. Implementing perennial strips alongside agricultural ditches and streams could reduce negative impacts of intensive agriculture and restore wildlife habitats in cultivated floodplains. To successfully set up perennial strips, it is important to understand the parameters that drive their establishment. Here we assessed the establishment success of reed canarygrass (RCG; Phalaris arundinacea ) strips in the lake Saint Pierre (LSP) floodplain, Québec, Canada by monitoring RCG biomass and vegetation height over 4 years and identify the factors driving its establishment. A total of 26 RCG strips across six municipalities of LSP were monitored. Biomass and vegetation height of RCG increased over time to reach an average of 5048 kg/ha in year 4 and 104 cm in year 3 in established strips. The RCG established successfully in 62% of surveyed plots and three environmental parameters explained 61% of this success. Establishment of RCG was most successful when a first rain came right after seeding (<3 days). High clay content and low elevation were associated with establishment failures. Overall, our results highlight the ability of RCG strips to restore dense perennial vegetation cover in cultivated floodplain, thereby providing suitable habitat for fish spawning during spring floods. This study provides significant insight into the drivers of establishment of perennial grass strips in highly constrained cultivated areas such as floodplains.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Novembre_2024

A Remote Sensing View of the 2020 Extreme Lake-Expansion Flood Event into the Peace–Athabasca Delta Floodplain—Implications for the Future SWOT Mission - Desrochers, Nicolas M.; Peters, Daniel L.; Siles, Gabriela; Cauvier Charest, Elizabeth; Trudel, Mélanie; Leconte, Robert (Remote Sensing, 2023)
The Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) in western Canada is one of the largest inland deltas in the world. Flooding caused by the expansion of lakes beyond normal shorelines occurred during the summer of 2020 and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the capabilities of remote sensing platforms to map surface water expansion into vegetated landscape with complex surface connectivity. Firstly, multi-source remotely sensed data via satellites were used to create a temporal reconstruction of the event spanning May to September. Optical synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and altimeter data were used to reconstruct surface water area and elevation as seen from space. Lastly, temporal water surface area and level data obtained from the existing satellites and hydrometric stations were used as input data in the CNES Large-Scale SWOT Simulator, which provided an overview of the newly launched SWOT satellite ability to monitor such flood events. The results show a 25% smaller water surface area for optical instruments compared to SAR. Simulations show that SWOT would have greatly increased the spatio-temporal understanding of the flood dynamics with complete PAD coverage three to four times per month. Overall, seasonal vegetation growth was a major obstacle for water surface area retrieval, especially for optical sensors.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2023

Evaluating the Impact of Floods on Housing Price Using a Spatial Matching Difference-In-Differences (SM-DID) Approach - Dubé, Jean; AbdelHalim, Maha; Devaux, Nicolas (2021)
Many applications have relied on the hedonic pricing model (HPM) to measure the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for urban externalities and natural disasters. The classic HPM regresses housing price on a complete list of attributes/characteristics that include spatial or environmental amenities (or disamenities), such as floods, to retrieve the gradients of the market (marginal) WTP for such externalities. The aim of this paper is to propose an innovative methodological framework that extends the causal relations based on a spatial matching difference-in-differences (SM-DID) estimator, and which attempts to calculate the difference between sale price for similar goods within “treated” and “control” groups. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed spatial matching method, the researchers present an empirical investigation based on the case of a flood event recorded in the city of Laval (Québec, Canada) in 1998, using information on transactions occurring between 1995 and 2001. The research results show that the impact of flooding brings a negative premium on the housing price of about 20,000$ Canadian (CAN).
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Quantifying flood events in Bangladesh with a daily-step flood monitoring index based on the concept of daily effective precipitation - Deo, Ravinesh C.; Adamowski, Jan F.; Begum, Khaleda; Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho; Kim, Do-Woo; Dayal, Kavina S.; Byun, Hi-Ryong (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019)

A real-time hourly water index for flood risk monitoring: Pilot studies in Brisbane, Australia, and Dobong Observatory, South Korea - Deo, Ravinesh C.; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Kim, Ga-Byn; Adamowski, Jan F. (Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2018)

Impacts of climate warming on global floods and their implication to current flood defense standards - Chen, Jie; Shi, Xinyan; Gu, Lei; Wu, Guiyang; Su, Tianhua; Wang, Hui-Min; Kim, Jong-Suk; Zhang, Liping; Xiong, Lihua (Journal of Hydrology, 2023)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2024

Using remote sensing to assess how intensive agriculture impacts the turbidity of a fluvial lake floodplain - Clermont, Maxime; Kinnard, Christophe; Dubé-Richard, Daphney; Campeau, Stéphane; Bordeleau, Pierre-André; de Grandpré, Arthur; Ziyad, Jawad; Roy, Alexandre (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2023)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Fevrier_2024; Kinnard_Christophe

The normative dimensions of flood risk management: Two types of flood harm - Chan, Jeffrey Kok Hui; Liao, Kuei-Hsien (Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2022)
The normative dimensions of flood harm in flood risk management (FRM) have become salient in a milieu of extreme flood events. In this article, two types of flood harm will be discussed. They are namely, risk harm and outcome harm. Whilst risk harm suggests that risk imposition by structural FRM measures is a type of harm that can increase vulnerability and diminish well-being, outcome harm is manifested in deliberate flooding used to protect certain privileged communities at the expense of harming other less privileged ones. Risk-imposing parties are required to seek consent for imposing new risks. In contrast, outcome harm as deliberate flooding is far more pernicious and should only be exercised in extreme situations with ample provisions for restitution and recovery. The aim of this article is to foreground and examine these under-explored notions of flood harm in the FRM discourse and in tandem, to expand the normative dimensions of FRM in a milieu where difficult ethical choices abound.

Is it the flood, or the disclosure? An inquiry to the impact of flood risk on residential housing prices - Chiang Hsieh, Lin-Han (Land Use Policy, 2021)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

An assessment of large‐scale flood modelling based on LiDAR data - Choné, Guénolé; Biron, Pascale M.; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas; Mazgareanu, Iulia; Neal, Jeff C.; Sampson, Christopher C. (Hydrological Processes, 2021)
Abstract Large‐scale flood modelling approaches designed for regional to continental scales usually rely on relatively simple assumptions to represent the potentially highly complex river bathymetry at the watershed scale based on digital elevation models (DEMs) with a resolution in the range of 25–30 m. Here, high‐resolution (1 m) LiDAR DEMs are employed to present a novel large‐scale methodology using a more realistic estimation of bathymetry based on hydrogeomorphological GIS tools to extract water surface slope. The large‐scale 1D/2D flood model LISFLOOD‐FP is applied to validate the simulated flood levels using detailed water level data in four different watersheds in Quebec (Canada), including continuous profiles over extensive distances measured with the HydroBall technology. A GIS‐automated procedure allows to obtain the average width required to run LISFLOOD‐FP. The GIS‐automated procedure to estimate bathymetry from LiDAR water surface data uses a hydraulic inverse problem based on discharge at the time of acquisition of LiDAR data. A tiling approach, allowing several small independent hydraulic simulations to cover an entire watershed, greatly improves processing time to simulate large watersheds with a 10‐m resampled LiDAR DEM. Results show significant improvements to large‐scale flood modelling at the watershed scale with standard deviation in the range of 0.30 m and an average fit of around 90%. The main advantage of the proposed approach is to avoid the need to collect expensive bathymetry data to efficiently and accurately simulate flood levels over extensive areas.
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1; Site_internet_RIISQ

Coping During Pregnancy Following Exposure to a Natural Disaster: The QF2011 Queensland Flood Study - Chen, T.; Laplante, D.P.; Elgbeili, G.; Brunet, A.; Simcock, G.; Kildea, S.; King, S. (Journal of Affective Disorders, 2020)
Keywords: Brunet_Alain

Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch‐German Rhine - Ciullo, Alessio; Kwakkel, Jan H.; De Bruijn, Karin M.; Doorn, Neelke; Klijn, Frans (Risk Analysis, 2020)
Abstract Flood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision‐support frameworks which rely on cost‐benefit analyses. Such frameworks are seldom informative about the geographical distribution of risk, raising questions on the fairness of the proposed policies. In the present work, we propose a new decision criterion that accounts for the distribution of risk reduction and apply it to support flood risk management decisions on a transboundary stretch of the Rhine River. Three types of interventions are considered: embankment heightening, making Room for the River, and changing the discharge distribution of the river branches. The analysis involves solving a flood risk management problem according to four alternative formulations, based on different ethical principles. Formulations based on cost optimization lead to very poor performances in some areas for the sake of reducing the overall aggregated costs. Formulations that also include equity criteria have different results depending on how these are defined. When risk reduction is distributed equally, very poor economic performance is achieved. When risk is distributed equally, results are in line with formulations based on cost optimization, while a fairer risk distribution is achieved. Risk reduction measures also differ, with the cost optimization approach strongly favoring the leverage of changing the discharge distribution and the alternative formulations spending more on embankment heightening and Room for the River, to rebalance inequalities in risk levels. The proposed method advances risk‐based decision‐making by allowing to consider risk distribution aspects and their impacts on the choice of risk reduction measures.

An ensemble prediction of flood susceptibility using multivariate discriminant analysis, classification and regression trees, and support vector machines - Choubin, Bahram; Moradi, Ehsan; Golshan, Mohammad; Adamowski, Jan; Sajedi-Hosseini, Farzaneh; Mosavi, Amir (Science of The Total Environment, 2019)

Environmental injustice and flood risk: a conceptual model and case comparison of metropolitan Miami and Houston, USA - Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Chakraborty, Jayajit (Regional Environmental Change, 2018)

Probable maximum flood in a changing climate: An overview for Canadian basins - Clavet-Gaumont, Jacinthe; Huard, David; Frigon, Anne; Koenig, Kristina A.; Slota, Phillip; Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris Maria; Thiémonge, Nathalie; Houdré, Fanny; Perdikaris, John; Turcotte, Richard; Lafleur, Julie; et al. (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2017)
Abstract Study Region: In Canada, dams which represent a high risk to human loss of life, along with important environmental and financial losses in case of failure, have to accommodate the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). Five Canadian basins with different physiographic characteristics and geographic locations, and where the PMF is a relevant metric have been selected: Nelson, Mattagami, Kenogami, Saguenay and Manic-5. Study Focus: One of the main drivers of the PMF is the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Traditionally, the computation of the PMP relies on moisture maximization of high efficiency observed storms without consideration for climate change. The current study attempts to develop a novel approach based on traditional methods to take into account the non-stationarity of the climate using an ensemble of 14 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. PMPs, the 100-year snowpack and resulting PMF changes were computed between the 1971-2000 and 2041-2070 periods. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The study reveals an overall increase in future spring PMP with the exception of the most northern basin Nelson. It showed a projected increase of the 100-year snowpack for the two northernmost basins, Nelson (8%) and Manic-5 (3%), and a decrease for the three more southern basins, Mattagami (-1%), Saguenay (-5%) and Kenogami (-9%). The future spring PMF is projected to increase with median values between -1.5% and 20%.
Keywords: Rousseau_Alain

Flood-Ring Formation and Root Development in Response to Experimental Flooding of Young Quercus robur Trees - Copini, Paul; Ouden, Jan den; Robert, Elisabeth M. R.; Tardif, Jacques C.; Loesberg, Walter A.; Goudzwaard, L.; Sass-Klaassen, Ute (Frontiers in Plant Science, 2016)
Spring flooding in riparian forests can cause significant reductions in earlywood-vessel size in submerged stem parts of ring-porous tree species, leading to the presence of ‘flood rings’ that can be used as a proxy to reconstruct past flooding events, potentially over millennia. The mechanism of flood-ring formation and the relation with timing and duration of flooding are still to be elucidated. In this study, we experimentally flooded four-year-old Quercus robur trees at three spring phenophases (late bud dormancy, budswell and internode expansion) and over different flooding durations (two, four and six weeks) to a stem height of 50 cm. The effect of flooding on root and vessel development was assessed immediately after the flooding treatment and at the end of the growing season. Ring width and earlywood-vessel size and density were measured at 25- and 75-cm stem height and collapsed vessels were recorded. Stem flooding inhibited earlywood-vessel development in flooded stem parts. In addition, flooding upon budswell and internode expansion led to collapsed earlywood vessels below the water level. At the end of the growing season, mean earlywood-vessel size in the flooded stem parts (upon budswell and internode expansion) was always reduced by approximately 50% compared to non-flooded stem parts and 55% compared to control trees. This reduction was already present two weeks after flooding and occurred independent of flooding duration. Stem and root flooding were associated with significant root dieback after four and six weeks and mean radial growth was always reduced with increasing flooding duration. By comparing stem and root flooding, we conclude that flood rings only occur after stem flooding. As earlywood-vessel development was hampered during flooding, a considerable number of narrow earlywood vessels present later in the season, must have been formed after the actual flooding events. Our study indicates that root dieback, together with strongly reduced hydraulic conductivity due to anomalously narrow earlywood vessels in flooded stem parts, contribute to reduced radial growth after flooding events. Our findings support the value of flood rings to reconstruct spring flooding events that occurred prior to instrumental flood records.

Physiographical space‐based kriging for regional flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites - Chokmani, K.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J. (Water Resources Research, 2004)
A physiographical space‐based kriging method is proposed for regional flood frequency estimation. The methodology relies on the construction of a continuous physiographical space using physiographical and meteorological characteristics of gauging stations and the use of multivariate analysis techniques. Two multivariate analysis methods were tested: canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and principal components analysis. Ordinary kriging, a geostatistical technique, was then used to interpolate flow quantiles through the physiographical space. Data from 151 gauging stations across the southern part of the province of Quebec, Canada, were used to illustrate this approach. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, two validation techniques, cross validation and split‐sample validation, were applied to estimate flood quantiles corresponding to the 10, 50, and 100 year return periods. Results of the proposed method were compared to those produced by a traditional regional estimation method using the canonical correlation analysis. The proposed method yielded satisfactory results. It allowed, for instance, for estimating the 10 year return period specific flow with a coefficient of determination of up to 0.78. However, this performance decreases with the increase in the quantile return period. Results also showed that the proposed method works better when the physiographical space is defined using canonical correlation analysis. It is shown that kriging in the CCA physiographical space yields results as precise as the traditional estimation method, with a fraction of the effort and the computation time.

Uncertainty sources in flood projections over contrasting hydrometeorological regimes - Castaneda-Gonzalez, Mariana; Poulin, Annie; Romero-Lopez, Rabindranarth; Turcotte, Richard; Chaumont, Diane (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2022)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Fevrier_2023

Exploring the Environmental Justice Implications of Hurricane Harvey Flooding in Greater Houston, Texas. - Chakraborty, Jayajit; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E. (American Journal of Public Health, 2019)
Objectives. To assess the environmental justice implications of flooding from Hurricane Harvey in Greater Houston, Texas, we analyzed whether the areal extent of flooding was distributed inequitably with respect to race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status, after controlling for relevant explanatory factors.Methods. Our study integrated cartographic information from Harvey’s Inundation Footprint, developed by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, with sociodemographic data from the 2012–2016 American Community Survey. Statistical analyses were based on bivariate correlations and multivariate generalized estimating equations.Results. The areal extent of Harvey-induced flooding was significantly greater in neighborhoods with a higher proportion of non-Hispanic Black and socioeconomically deprived residents after we controlled for contextual factors and clustering.Conclusions. Results provide evidence of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic injustices in the distribution of flooding and represent an importa...

Monitoring Water Turbidity in a Temperate Floodplain Using UAV: Potential and Challenges - Bussières, Savannah; Kinnard, Christophe; Clermont, Maxime; Campeau, Stéphane; Dubé-Richard, Daphney; Bordeleau, Pierre-André; Roy, Alexandre (Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 2022)
Keywords: Kinnard_Christophe

Gridded flood depth estimates from satellite-derived inundations - Bryant, Seth; McGrath, Heather; Boudreault, Mathieu (Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2022)
Abstract. Canada's RADARSAT missions improve the potential to study past flood events; however, existing tools to derive flood depths from this remote-sensing data do not correct for errors, leading to poor estimates. To provide more accurate gridded depth estimates of historical flooding, a new tool is proposed that integrates Height Above Nearest Drainage and Cost Allocation algorithms. This tool is tested against two trusted, hydraulically derived, gridded depths of recent floods in Canada. This validation shows the proposed tool outperforms existing tools and can provide more accurate estimates from minimal data without the need for complex physics-based models or expert judgement. With improvements in remote-sensing data, the tool proposed here can provide flood researchers and emergency managers accurate depths in near-real time.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Juillet_2022; Site_internet_RIISQ

Ratemaking territories and adverse selection for flood insurance - Boudreault, Mathieu; Ojeda, Angelica (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2022)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Novembre_2022

Pricing Flood Insurance with a Hierarchical Physics-Based Model - Boudreault, Mathieu; Grenier, Patrick; Pigeon, Mathieu; Potvin, Jean-Mathieu; Turcotte, Richard (North American Actuarial Journal, 2020)
Floods account for a large part of global economic losses from natural disasters. As a result, the private insurance sector is increasingly participating in the financial risk sharing, thus expanding the role of actuaries to flood risk management. In this article, we investigate pricing and spatial segmentation of flood risk in the context of private insurance, meaning that individual risk assessment should minimize adverse selection. As such, we design a hierarchical flood risk model that allows an assessment at the individual level. Our model relies on a chain of physics-based climate, hydrological, and hydraulics modules combined with civil engineering methods to map the distribution of individual flood losses at high resolution. Building on such approach, we design pricing and segmentation methods tailored for flood risk management. We then apply the methods to study flood risk in a small city in the province of Quebec. We calculate premiums, analyze the impacts of risk sharing, set pricing territories consistent with the spatial flood risk, and finally, quantify the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios on individual and aggregate losses, premiums, and tail risk measures.
Keywords: Site_internet_RIISQ

Changes in cold region flood regimes inferred from long-record reference gauging stations - Burn, Donald H.; Whitfield, Paul H. (Water Resources Research, 2017)
Variability and nonstationarity in flood regimes of cold regions are examined using data from hydrometric reference streamflow gauging stations from 27 natural watersheds in Canada and adjacent areas of the United States. Choosing stations from reference networks with nearly 100 years of data allows for the investigation of changes that span several phases of some of the atmospheric drivers that may influence flood behavior. The reference hydrologic networks include only stations considered to have good quality data and were screened to avoid the influences of regulation, diversions, or land use change. Changes and variations in flood regimes are complex and require a multifaceted approach to properly characterize the types of changes that have occurred and are likely to occur in the future. Peaks over threshold (POT) data are extracted from daily flow data for each watershed, and changes to the magnitude, timing, frequency, volume, and duration of threshold exceedences are investigated. Seasonal statistics are used to explore changes in the nature of the flood regime based on changes in the timing of flood threshold exceedences. A variety of measures are developed to infer flood regime shifts including from a nival regime to a mixed regime and a mixed regime to a more pluvial-dominated regime. The flood regime at many of the watersheds demonstrates increased prominence of rainfall floods and decreased prevalence of snowmelt contributions to flood responses. While some individual stations show a relationship between flood variables and climate indices, these relationships are generally weak.

Dynamics of groundwater floodwaves and groundwater flood events in an alluvial aquifer - Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Cloutier, Claude-André; Tremblay, Catherine; Chaillou, Gwénaëlle; Larocque, Marie (2016)
In gravelly floodplains, streamflood events induce groundwater floodwaves that propagate through the alluvial aquifer. Understanding groundwater floodwave dynamics can contribute to groundwater ﬂood risk management. This study documents groundwater floodwaves on a flood event basis to fully assess environmental factors that control their propagation velocity, their amplitude and their extension in the floodplain, and examines the expression of groundwater flooding in the Matane River floodplain (Quebec, Canada). An array of 15 piezometers equipped with automated level sensors and a river stage gauge monitoring at 15-minute intervals from September 2011 to September 2014 were installed within a 0.04-km2 area of the floodplain. Cross-correlation analyses were performed between piezometric and river-level time series for 54 flood events. The results reveal that groundwater floodwave propagation occurs at all flood magnitudes. The smaller floods produced a clear groundwater floodwave through the floodplain, while the largest floods affected local groundwater flow orientation by generating an inversion of the hydraulic gradient. Propagation velocities ranging from 8 to 13 m/h, which are two to three orders of magnitude higher than groundwater velocity, were documented while the induced pulse propagated across the floodplain to more than 230 m from the channel. Propagation velocity and amplitude attenuation of the groundwater floodwaves depend both on flood event characteristics and the aquifer characteristics. Groundwater flooding events are documented at discharge below bankfull (< 0.5 Qbf). This study highlights the role of flood event hydrographs and environmental variables on groundwater floodwave properties and the complex relationship between flood event discharge and groundwater flooding. The role that groundwater floodwaves play in flood mapping and the ability of analytical solutions to reproduce them are also discussed.

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes - Brenden Jongman; Jongman, Brenden; Philip J. Ward; Ward, Philip B.; Philip J. Ward; Ward, Philip J.; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. (Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2012)

Impacts of Ship-Induced Waves along Shorelines during Flooding Events - Bluteau, Cynthia E.; Van Rooijen, Arnold; Matte, Pascal; Dumont, Dany (Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 2023)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2023

Public-private flood management: Who should pay and when? - Bouchard St-Amant, Pier-André; Tchokouagueu, Franck Aurelien; Dumais, Guillaume (Heliyon, 2023)

Urban Flood Detection Using TerraSAR-X and SAR Simulated Reflectivity Maps - Baghermanesh, Shadi Sadat; Jabari, Shabnam; McGrath, Heather (Remote Sensing, 2022)
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is a vital tool for flood mapping due to its capability to acquire images day and night in almost any weather and to penetrate through cloud cover. In rural areas, SAR backscatter intensity can be used to detect flooded areas accurately; however, the complexity of urban structures makes flood mapping in urban areas a challenging task. In this study, we examine the synergistic use of SAR simulated reflectivity maps and Polarimetric and Interferometric SAR (PolInSAR) features in the improvement of flood mapping in urban environments. We propose a machine learning model employing simulated and PolInSAR features derived from TerraSAR-X images along with five auxiliary features, namely elevation, slope, aspect, distance from the river, and land-use/land-cover that are well-known to contribute to flood mapping. A total of 2450 data points have been used to build and evaluate the model over four different areas with different vegetation and urban density. The results indicated that by using PolInSAR and SAR simulated reflectivity maps together with five auxiliary features, a classification overall accuracy of 93.1% in urban areas was obtained, representing a 9.6% improvement over using the five auxiliary features alone.

Uneven burden of urban flooding - Bates, Paul D. (Nature sustainability, 2022)
Modelling techniques now allow flood risk to be mapped down to street or even building level in a study showing that floods disproportionately affect disadvantaged communities and particular ethnic groups.

Comparative analysis of local and large-scale approaches to floodplain mapping: a case study of the Chaudière River - Bessar, M. A.; Choné, G.; Lavoie, A.; Buffin-Bélanger, T.; Biron, P. M.; Matte, P.; Anctil, F. (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2021)
Floods are among natural disasters that increasingly threaten society, especially with current and future climate change trends. Several tools have been developed to help planners manage the risks associated to flooding, including the mapping of flood-prone areas, but one of the major challenges is still the availability of detailed data, particularly bathymetry. This manuscript compares two modeling approaches to produce flood maps. An innovative large-scale approach that, without bathymetric data, estimates by inverse modeling the bed section for a given flow and a given roughness coefficient through 1 D/2D hydraulic modeling (LISFLOOD-FP). And a local approach, with a detailed coupled 1 D/2D hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that uses all available information at the bed and floodplain (LiDAR and bathymetry). Both implementations revealed good performance values for flood peak levels as well as excellent fit indices in describing the areal extent of flooding. As expected, the local approach is more accurate, but the results of the large-scale approach are very promising especially for areas lacking bathymetric data and for large-scale governmental programs.

Regionalizing Flood Magnitudes using Landscape Structural Patterns of Catchments - Amiri, Bahman Jabbarian; Junfeng, Gao; Fohrer, Nicola; Mueller, Felix; Adamowski, Jan (Water Resources Management, 2018)

Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values? - Beltrán, Allan; Maddison, David; Elliott, Robert J. R. (Ecological Economics, 2018)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

The 2011 flood event in the Assiniboine River Basin: causes, assessment and damages - Blais, Eric-Lorne; Greshuk, Jeremy; Stadnyk, Tricia (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2016)

At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows? - Blöschl, Günter; Ardoin-Bardin, Sandra; Bonell, Mike; Dorninger, Manfred; Goodrich, David; Gutknecht, Dieter; Matamoros, David; Merz, Bruno; Shand, Paul; Szolgay, Jan (Hydrological Processes, 2007)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Geomorphological understanding of floods - Baker, Victor R (Geomorphology, 1994)
The summer 1993 flooding of the upper Mississippi River valley reminds us that floods are the most globally pervasive, environmentally diverse and continually destructive of all natural hazards. The fact that flood damages continue to rise raises commonsense questions about conventional flood science. Like much modern environmental science, conventional flood science has followed the model of theoretical physics. It advanced from early emphasis on streamflow measurement to the use of simple formulae, and finally to the abstract theoretical sophistication of modern modeling studies. Two approaches are now used to “predict” flood phenomena: (1) beginning with the conventional database of measured properties of small common floods, a conceptual generalization is made to the idealized properties of the large, rare floods from which society is assumed to be at risk, and (2) explanation of detailed, specific flood phenomena is achieved through theoretical generalization (models) based on “first principles”, which are assumed to apply to the entire class of phenomena. Unfortunately, both approaches devote almost all their attention to methodology, increasingly mathematical, without questioning basic underlying assumptions. Increasingly it is the assumptions, often unstated, that serve to embody the understanding of floods as real-world particular phenomena, rather than as conceptual generalities. Such trends lead to an unease that it is not floods that are being researched by much of conventional flood science. Rather, such flood “science” is increasingly becoming the mathematical manipulation of idealized parameters that are assumed to have flood-like properties. These idealizations of flood attributes are generalized, and the resulting predicted consequences are imposed upon society through engineering designs, flood-hazard zonations, and the like. Geomorphological understanding of floods derives a from along geological tradition of studying indices of real processes operating in the past. In contrast to the conceptual, theoretical treatment of floods as classes or generalizations, geomorphologists study particular floods revealed as a natural experience that is recorded in the sediments, landforms, and erosional scars of past floods. The strength of this approach is in its affinity to the commonsense perceptional basis that underpins human action. Geomorphological flood studies, including recent advances in paleoflood hydrology, are needed as a complement to conventional hydrological approaches. The resulting complementarity will allow the predictions of the conventional approach to be grounded in the concrete particulars of experience. Without such grounding, flood science risks continuing as an empty quest for universal ideals while humanity, paralyzed by inaction, continues to suffer from the reality of particular floods.
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Elemental analysis of hair provides biomarkers of maternal hardship linked to adverse behavioural outcomes in 4-year-old children: The QF2011 Queensland Flood Study - Ambeskovic, Mirela; Laplante, David P.; Kenney, Thomas; Elgbeili, Guillaume; Beaumier, Pierre; Azat, Nagy; Simcock, Gabrielle; Kildea, Sue; King, Suzanne; Metz, Gerlinde A. S. (Journal of Trace Elements in Medicine and Biology, 2022)
Background Exposure to adverse experiences during pregnancy, such as a natural disaster, can modify development of the child with potential long-term consequences. Elemental hair analysis may provide useful indicators of cellular homeostasis and child health. The present study investigated (1) if flood-induced prenatal maternal stress is associated with altered hair elemental profiles in 4-year-old children, and (2) if hair elemental profiles are associated with behavioural outcomes in children. Methods Participants were 75 children (39 boys; 36 girls) whose mothers were exposed to varying levels of stress due to a natural disaster (2011 Queensland Flood, Australia) during pregnancy. At 4 years of age, language development, attention and internalizing and externalizing problems were assessed and scalp hair was collected. Hair was analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) for 28 chemical elements. Results A significant curvilinear association was found between maternal objective hardship and copper levels in boys, as low and high maternal objective hardship levels were associated with the highest hair copper levels. Mediation analysis revealed that low levels of maternal objective hardship and high levels of copper were associated with lower vocabulary scores. Higher levels of maternal objective hardship were associated with higher magnesium levels, which in turn were associated with attention problems and aggression in boys. In girls, high and low maternal objective hardship levels were associated with high calcium/potassium ratios. Conclusion Elemental hair analysis may provide a sensitive biomonitoring tool for early identification of health risks in vulnerable children.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2022

Change point detection of flood events using a functional data framework - Alaya, Mohamed Ben; Ternynck, Camille; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. (Advances in Water Resources, 2020)
Abstract Change point detection methods have an important role in many hydrological and hydraulic studies of river basins. These methods are very useful to characterize changes in hydrological regimes and can, therefore, lead to better understanding changes in extreme flows behavior. Flood events are generally characterized by a finite number of characteristics that may not include the entire information available in a discharge time series. The aim of the current work is to present a new approach to detect changes in flood events based on a functional data analysis framework. The use of the functional approach allows taking into account the whole information contained in the discharge time series of flood events. The presented methodology is illustrated on a flood analysis case study, from the province of Quebec, Canada. Obtained results using the proposed approach are consistent with those obtained using a traditional change point method, and demonstrate the capability of the functional framework to simultaneously consider several flood features and, therefore, presenting a comprehensive way for a better exploitation of the information contained in a discharge time series.

A data-driven analysis of flash flood hazard, fatalities, and damages over the CONUS during 1996–2017 - Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid (Journal of Hydrology, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

System dynamics and hydrodynamic modelling approaches for spatial and temporal analysis of flood risk - Ahmad, Shohan S.; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (International Journal of River Basin Management, 2015)
ABSTRACTTwo modelling approaches are presented in this article for spatial and temporal analysis of water resources risk. Major sources of uncertainty in water resources management are spatial and temporal variability. Spatial variability occurs when values fluctuate with the location of an area and temporal variability occurs when values fluctuate with time. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented in this article as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and its spatial variability. The first modelling framework presents SD simulation coupled with 3D fuzzy set theory. Whereas the second modelling framework presents hydrodynamic modelling coupled with 3D fuzzy set theory. The two integrated modelling frameworks are illustrated and compared using the Red River flood of 1997 (Manitoba, Canada) as a case study. For the 1997 Red River case study, SD simulation proved to be efficient modelling approach for capturing the feedback-based dynamic processes oc...

La mortalité liée aux inondations en région méditerranéenne française (1980–2020) - Vinet, Freddy; Cherel, Jean-Philippe; Weiss, Karine; Lewandowski, Margaux; Boissier, Laurent (LHB, 2022)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2022

Sensibilisation au risque d’inondation par une séquence d’enseignement en probabilités - Thibault, Mathieu (2024)
Je fais partie d’une équipe interdisciplinaire d’un projet de recherche subventionné qui vise à sensibiliser les élèves du premier cycle du secondaire (12-14 ans) au risque d’inondation. Avec une didacticienne de la géographie, deux personnes didacticiennes des sciences et technologie et deux spécialistes de l’hydrologie et de l’hydraulique, nous avons fait ressortir des points d’ancrage à prendre en compte pour concevoir une séquence didactique interdisciplinaire (en mathématiques, sciences et technologie, univers social) sur ce sujet. Ce projet s’inscrit dans une approche de recherche- développement (Bergeron et Rousseau, 2021), ayant une double finalité de développement (concevoir un produit en réponse aux besoins du milieu de pratique) et de recherche (contribuer à l’avancement des connaissances scientifiques). Cet article présente : 1. Des informations sur les inondations ainsi que les concepts associés (aléa, exposition, vulnérabilité et risque) ; 2. Une analyse des programmes de formation de l’école québécoise (PFEQ) en mathématiques au secondaire (Gouvernement du Québec, 2006, 2016a) et de la progression des apprentissages (PDA) au primaire (Gouvernement du Québec, 2009) et au secondaire (Gouvernement du Québec, 2016b) au sujet du risque d’inondation ; 3. Les grandes lignes d’une séquence d’enseignement en probabilités visant à sensibiliser les élèves du premier cycle du secondaire au risque d’inondation.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Mai_2024; Site_internet_RIISQ

La portée et les limites des approches participatives pour la gestion intégrée des inondations - Massé, Simon; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Biron, Pascale; Ruiz, Julie (Revue des sciences de l’eau, 2019)
La gestion intégrée des risques d’inondation (GIRI) fait appel à la coordination de tous les niveaux et secteurs du gouvernement et de la société civile. Afin de favoriser la responsabilisation et l’appropriation des plans de GIRI par les communautés, l’implication des acteurs non gouvernementaux et des citoyens est de plus en plus valorisée. D’abord, l’émergence des approches participatives est exacerbée par l’optimisme face à la possibilité d’améliorer substantiellement la qualité et la portée des décisions, de gérer les conflits, de faciliter l'implantation des mesures non structurelles et de renforcer les capacités sociales au sein des communautés. Toutefois, certains avancent que l'intégration des non-experts dans le processus décisionnel brime l'impartialité de la procédure technocratique et que leur manque d’intérêt et de compétences limite la portée des démarches participatives. Des lacunes dans la représentativité des parties prenantes affectées et concernées au sein des instances peuvent aussi biaiser les aboutissants de la participation. De plus, la réticence des autorités à partager le pouvoir décisionnel limite l’institutionnalisation des approches participatives, tandis que la rigidité de l’appareil gouvernemental freine les élans participatifs des collectivités. Considérant l’intérêt grandissant des chercheurs, des décideurs et de la société civile envers les approches participatives dans le contexte de la gestion des inondations, cet article propose une synthèse de la littérature pour démêler les principales retombées et les limites de la participation. , In order to promote community accountability for flood risks, the involvement of non-governmental actors and citizens is increasingly valued. The emergence of participatory approaches is consolidated by optimism about the possibility of improving the quality and scope of decisions, managing conflicts, facilitating the implementation of non-structural measures and strengthening social capacity within communities. However, some argue that the integration of non-experts undermines the impartiality of the decision-making process and that their lack of interest and expertise limits the scope of participatory approaches. Moreover, the authorities’ reluctance to share decision-making power limits the institutionalization of participatory approaches, whereas the rigidity of the governmental framework hampers participatory impulses within communities. Lack of stakeholder representativeness within the decision-making framework may also bias the outcome of participation. In addition, the reluctance of the authorities to share decision-making power limits the institutionalization of participatory approaches, while the rigidity of the government apparatus hinders the participatory momentum of communities. Considering the growing interest of researchers, policymakers and civil society in participatory approaches in the context of flood management, this article provides a synthesis of the literature to unravel the major benefits and limitations of participation.
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Conséquences des inondations de 2019 chez les intervenants de première et de deuxième lignes : le point de vue des principaux intéressés - Maltais, Danielle; Hamel, Ariane; Lansard, Anne-Lise (Canadian Social Work Review, 2024)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2024

L'hydrogéomorphologie appliquée à la gestion de l'aléa d'inondation en climat tempéré froid : l'exemple de la rivière Matane (Québec) - Demers, Sylvio; Olsen, Taylor; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Marchand, Jean-Philippe; Biron, Pascale M.; Morneau, François (Physio-Géo, 2014)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Posttraumatic growth and its relationship with posttraumatic stress symptoms following wildfires: A longitudinal study. - Gaboury, Marie-Pier; Belleville, Geneviève; Lebel, Jessica; Ouellet, Marie-Christine; Morin, Charles; Bouchard, Stéphane; Bergeron, Nicolas; Ghosh, Sunita; Campbell, Tavis; MacMaster, Frank P. (Traumatology, 2023)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Decembre_2023

Trinity flame retardant with benzimidazole structure towards unsaturated polyester possessing high thermal stability, fire-safety and smoke suppression with in-depth insight into the smoke suppression mechanism - Li, Zhen; Fu, Teng; Guo, De-Ming; Lu, Jia-Hui; He, Jie-Hao; Chen, Li; Li, Wen-Da; Wang, Yu-Zhong (Polymer, 2023)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Juin_2023

Gender Differences in Usage and Subjective Appreciation of an Online Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Wildfire Evacuees: Descriptive Study - Binet, Émilie; Ouellet, Marie-Christine; Lebel, Jessica; Békés, Vera; Morin; Belleville, Geneviève (Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2022)
Background: Based on the most common psychological difficulties of the evacuees from the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta, Canada, a therapist-guided cognitive behavioral self-treatment was developed. This study aimed to explore how gender influences the usage and subjective appreciation of the RESILIENT online treatment. Methods: Our study included 81 English-speaking evacuees with significant posttraumatic symptoms, or with some posttraumatic symptoms accompanied by at least mild depression symptoms or subclinical insomnia, and who logged into the platform at least once. Various usage and subjective appreciation variables were analyzed, including number of completed sessions, number of logins, number of words per session, perceived efforts, perception of usefulness and intention to continue using the different strategies. Results: No difference was detected in most objective usage indicators. The number of words written in sessions 7 and 10 was significantly greater for women than for men. Regarding subjective appreciation, men had a greater perception of having put strong efforts in the cognitive restructuring strategy, while women reported in a greater proportion that they wanted to continue using physical exercise as a behavioral activation strategy. Conclusions: Our study offers a first look into how women and men use online treatments, and what their preferences are.

Défis de l’action intersectorielle et pistes de réflexion pour renforcer la concertation dans les milieux ruraux du Québec en contexte de pandémie - Richard, Julie; Bergeron, Dave A.; Lessard, Lily; Toupin, Isabelle; Ouellet, Nicole; Bédard, Emmanuelle (Global Health Promotion, 2021)
La présente pandémie nécessite le recours aux mécanismes qui favorisent l’action intersectorielle entre les autorités et les partenaires de différents secteurs de la santé et de la société civile pour coordonner et adapter la réponse socio-sanitaire en fonction des particularités des milieux et de l’évolution de la pandémie. Ce commentaire propose de mettre en lumière quelques défis qui se posent actuellement dans la mise en œuvre d’actions intersectorielles dans les milieux ruraux du Québec. Des pistes de réflexion en faveur du renforcement des mécanismes de concertation nécessaires à la gestion de la pandémie sont proposées.
Keywords: Lessard_Lily

Enhancing public transport use: The influence of soft pull interventions - Zarabi, Zahra; Waygood, E. Owen D.; Olsson, Lars; Friman, Margareta; Gousse-Lessard, Anne-Sophie (Transport Policy, 2024)
Keywords: Gousse-Lessard_Anne-Sophie

Development and validation of five behavioral indices of flood adaptation - Valois, Pierre; Caron, Maxime; Gousse-Lessard, Anne-Sophie; Talbot, Denis; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien (BMC Public Health, 2019)
Keywords: Gousse-Lessard_Anne-Sophie

We are our passions: The role of identity processes in harmonious and obsessive passion and links to optimal functioning in society - Bouizegarene, Nabil; Bourdeau, Sarah; Leduc, Caroline; Gousse-Lessard, Anne-Sophie; Houlfort, Nathalie; Vallerand, Robert J. (Self and Identity, 2018)
Keywords: Bourdeau-Brien_Michael; Gousse-Lessard_Anne-Sophie

Stressed and distressed: how is the COVID-19 pandemic associated with sexual frequency, sexual satisfaction, and relationship satisfaction? - Dion, Jacinthe; Hamel, Catherine; Prévost, Benjamin; Bergeron-Leclerc, Christiane; Pouliot, Eve; Maltais, Danielle; Grenier, Josée; Dubé, Myriam; Ouellet-Plamondon, Claudiane; Vaillancourt-Morel, Marie-Pier (The Journal of Sexual Medicine, 2023)
Abstract Background The Canadian government’s response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic included the implementation of several restrictive measures since March 2020. These actions sought to decrease social contact and increase physical distancing, including that within universities. Such constraints were required to impede the transmission of the virus; however, concerns remain about their impact on the sexual and intimate relationships of university employees and students. Aim This study examined the associations between COVID-19–related stress and sexual frequency, sexual satisfaction, and relationship satisfaction, also testing the mediating role of psychological distress. Methods The models were tested with Canadian data collected from university employees and students in 2 phases: the first wave in April-May 2020 (T1; n = 2754) and the second wave in November-December 2021 (T2; n = 1430), 18 months afterward. Participants completed self-report questionnaires online. Path analyses were performed to test the associations of the mediation models. Outcomes The principal outcomes included psychological distress determined via the Patient Health Questionnaire–4, relationship satisfaction measured via the Dyadic Adjustment Scale, and sexual satisfaction and sexual frequency ascertained through a single item each. Results Overall, COVID-19–related stress was associated with higher psychological distress, which in turn was related to lower sexual frequency, sexual satisfaction, and relationship satisfaction. Similar results were obtained with T1 and T2 data, indicating the mediating effect of psychological distress. Clinical Implications These findings increase scholarly comprehension of the negative associations between stress/distress and sexual and romantic relationships. Sexuality and close relationships are vital to the quality of human life; thus, targeted interventions should be developed to reduce COVID-19–related stress and its impact on sexual and romantic relationships to mitigate the long-term influences of this unique global challenge. Strengths and Limitations To our knowledge, this study is the first to use a large sample size and replicate findings in 2 waves. Nonetheless, it is limited by the use of cross-sectional data. Longitudinal studies with the same participants are mandated to better understand the evolution of these outcomes. Conclusion COVID-19–related stress and psychological distress were found among participating university students and employees and were associated with lower sexual satisfaction, sexual frequency, and intimate relationship satisfaction. These results were observed at the early onset of the pandemic and 18 months afterward, suggesting that the stress generated by the pandemic were not mere reactions to the onset of the pandemic but persisted over time.

La fermeture des établissements scolaires en temps de pandémie : point de vue d’adolescents et d’adolescentes en région éloignée sur les changements perçus dans leur pratique d’activité physique - Guay, Sandrine; Pouliot, Eve; Maltais, Danielle; Giroux, Patrick; Simard, Ann-Sophie; Maltais-Dufour, Olivia; Lacelle, Catherine (Revue hybride de l'éducation, 2024)
En raison de la pandémie, en mars 2020, les adolescents et les adolescentes se sont retrouvés confinés à leur domicile pour un temps indéterminé. Afin de mieux comprendre leur vécu dans ce contexte particulier, notamment en ce qui concerne leurs habitudes de vie, des entrevues de groupe (n=10) ont été réalisées auprès de 57 jeunes fréquentant trois écoles secondaires du Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean en 2021-2022. Les résultats soulignent la pertinence de mieux comprendre leur vécu et leurs besoins en temps de crise, de même que l’importance du rôle des milieux scolaires quant à la pratique d’activité physique chez les jeunes, et ce, en vue d’améliorer la qualité du soutien qui leur est offert.

Interannual evolution of hydrosedimentary connectivity induced by forest cover change in a snow‐dominated mountainous catchment - Jautzy, Timothée; Maltais, Maxime; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas (Land Degradation & Development, 2021)
Abstract Hydrosedimentary connectivity is a key concept referring to the potential fluxes of water and sediment moving throughout a catchment. In forested catchments, these fluxes are prone to alterations caused by anthropogenic and natural disturbances. In this study, we modelled the interannual spatiotemporal evolution of hydrosedimentary connectivity influenced by forest cover change over the last four decades in the Mont‐Louis catchment, a medium snow‐dominated mountainous catchment in eastern Canada, which had 62% of its total surface affected by forest disturbances (mainly logging, but also wildfires and diseases) between 1979 and 2017. Using a geomorphometric index of connectivity (IC) and a historical forest cover database, we produced one IC map per year that considered anthropogenic and natural disturbances affecting the forest cover of the studied catchment. To account for vegetation recovery, forest disturbances were weighted with local hydrological recovery rates. Over the four decades, the mean IC of the Mont‐Louis catchment dramatically increased by 35% in response to different types of disturbances. The spatial evolution of IC over the whole catchment and at the sub‐catchment scale revealed that disturbance location has a strong influence on hydrosedimentary connectivity to the main channel. Our results also highlight the sharp contrast between IC computed from topography‐based impedance to those computed from vegetation‐based impedance. Forest disturbances appear to connect hillslopes with the hydrological network by producing pathways for sediment and water. Finally, the proposed reproducible framework could be useful for predicting the potential impact of harvesting and preventing damage to fish habitat and sensitive river reaches.

Adolescents Exposed to Cumulative Natural Disasters: A Comparison Between their Realities in Rural and Urban Areas - Pouliot, Eve; Maltais, Danielle; Gervais, Christine; Tardif-Grenier, Kristel; Simard, Ann-Sophie; Gauthier, Pascal; Maltais-Dufour, Olivia; Hamel, Ariane (Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2023)
Introduction: Over the past years, the Outaouais region (Quebec, Canada) and their residents have had to endure no less than five natural disasters (floods, tornadoes). These disasters are likely to have a variety of consequences on the physical and mental health of adolescents, as well as on their personal, family, school and social lives. The experiences of teenagers are also likely to vary depending on whether they live in rural or urban areas. Method: Data were collected via a self-administered questionnaire in February 2022. A total of 1307 teenagers from two high schools participated in the study by completing an online survey. The questionnaire measured various aspects of the youth's mental health using validated tests, such as manifestations of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression, as well as the presence of suicidal thoughts and self-harm. Other aspects of the youth's experience were measured, including their level of social support, school engagement, alcohol and drug use, and coping strategies. Results: One third of young students (n=1307) were experiencing depressive symptoms and suicidal thoughts, as well as significant daily stress. More than 25% of the students had moderate or severe anxiety and thoughts of self-harm. These problems were significantly more prevalent among youths with prior exposure to a natural disaster. The study data also revealed that youths living in rural areas had a more worrying profile than those living in urban areas. Conclusion: Similar to other studies (Ran et al., 2015; Stratta et al., 2014), our research data revealed that youths living in rural areas presented a more concerning profile than those residing in urban areas. It therefore seems important, in future studies and services, to focus more specifically on these teenagers to better understand their needs and to develop adapted services more likely to meet them.

Les facteurs associés à la présence de pensées suicidaires chez les jeunes en contexte de catastrophe : quelles leçons tirer des études existantes en contexte de pandémie ? - Pouliot, Eve; Dubois, Pascale; Maltais, Danielle; Lansard, Anne-Lise; Simard, Ann-Sophie (Enfance en difficulté, 2022)
Il est largement reconnu que les catastrophes naturelles engendrent des conséquences importantes pour les populations exposées. Les jeunes sont particulièrement vulnérables à développer des problèmes de santé mentale après un désastre, notamment des pensées suicidaires. Or, dans le contexte de la pandémie de la COVID-19, il s’avère important de documenter ce phénomène afin d’intervenir efficacement, d’autant plus que les catastrophes et les risques de pandémie tendent à augmenter. Cette revue systématique des écrits vise à identifier les facteurs associés positivement ou négativement à la présence de pensées suicidaires chez les jeunes à la suite d’une catastrophe. Au total, 24 articles scientifiques ont été retenus pour l’analyse et ont permis de dégager plusieurs facteurs associés aux pensées suicidaires, tels que la dépression, le stress post-traumatique, l’âge, l’exposition au désastre, ainsi que les traumatismes antérieurs. Des pistes concrètes découlent de la présente analyse afin d’orienter l’intervention auprès des jeunes dans ce contexte. , It is widely recognized that natural disasters have significant consequences for exposed populations. Teenagers are particularly vulnerable to develop mental health problems after a disaster, including suicidal thoughts. However, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to document this reality in order to prevent suicidal thoughts, especially as disasters and pandemic risks tend to increase. This systematic review of the literature aims to identify factors associated positively or negatively with the presence of suicidal thoughts in teenagers following a disaster. 24 scientific articles were selected for analysis and have allowed to identify several associated factors, such as depression, post-traumatic stress, age, exposure to disaster, and previous trauma. Concrete avenues emerge from this analysis to guide intervention with teenagers in this context.

Mixture Probability Models with Covariates: Applications in Estimating Risk of Hydroclimatic Extremes - Yousfi, Nawres; El Adlouni, Salaheddine; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Gachon, Philippe (Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2023)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Atmospheric blocking events in the North Atlantic: trends and links to climate anomalies and teleconnections - Wazneh, Hussein; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René; de Vernal, Anne; Tremblay, Bruno (Climate Dynamics, 2021)
Atmospheric blockings are generally associated with large-scale high-pressure systems that interrupt west-to-east atmospheric flow in mid and high latitudes. Blockings cause several days of quasi-stationary weather conditions, and therefore can result in monthly or seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events on the affected regions. In this paper, the long-term coupled CERA-20C reanalysis data from 1901 to 2010 are used to evaluate the links between blocking events over the North Atlantic north of 35° N, and atmospheric and oceanic modes of climate variability on decadal time scales. This study indicates more frequent and longer lasting blocking events than previous studies using other reanalyses products. A strong relationship was found between North Atlantic blocking events and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Baffin Island–West Atlantic (BWA) indices, in fall, winter and spring. More blocking events occur during the negative phases of the NAO index and positive phases of the BWA mode. In some situations, the BWA patterns provide clearer links with the North Atlantic blocking occurrence than with the NAO alone. The correlation between the synchronous occurrences of AMO and blocking is generally weak, although it does increase for a lag of about 6–10 years. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) furthermore demonstrates a significant two-way causal effect between blocking occurrences and the NAO and BWA indices. Finally, while we find no significant trends in blocking frequencies over the last 110 years in the Northern Hemisphere, these events become longer lasting in summer and fall, and more intense in spring in the North Atlantic.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Correction to: Atmospheric blocking events in the North Atlantic: trends and links to climate anomalies and teleconnections - Wazneh, Hussein; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René; de Vernal, Anne; Tremblay, Bruno (Climate Dynamics, 2021)
The article: Atmospheric blocking events in the North Atlantic: trends and links to climate anomalies and teleconnections, written by Hussein Wazneh, Philippe Gachon, René Laprise, Anne de Vernal, Bruno Tremblay was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 5 January 2021 without open access.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Predicting malaria risk considering vector control interventions under climate change scenarios - Sadoine, Margaux L.; Zinszer, Kate; Liu, Ying; Gachon, Philippe; Fournier, Michel; Dueymes, Guillaume; Dorsey, Grant; Llerena, Ana; Namuganga, Jane Frances; Nasri, Bouchra; Smargiassi, Audrey (Scientific Reports, 2024)
Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010–2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The results showed upward trends in the annual malaria cases by 25% to 30% by 2050s in the absence of intervention but there was great variability in the predictions (historical vs RCP 4.5 medians [Min–Max]: 16,785 [9,902–74,382] vs 21,289 [11,796–70,606]). The combination of IRS and LLIN, IRS alone, and LLIN alone would contribute to reducing the malaria burden by 76%, 63% and 35% respectively. Similar conclusions were drawn from the predictions of the models with and without interactions between environmental factors and interventions, suggesting that the interactions have no added value for the predictions. The results highlight the need for maintaining vector control interventions for malaria prevention and control in the context of climate change given the potential public health and economic implications of increasing malaria in Uganda.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Differential Influence of Environmental Factors on Malaria Due to Vector Control Interventions in Uganda - Sadoine, Margaux L.; Smargiassi, Audrey; Liu, Ying; Gachon, Philippe; Fournier, Michel; Dueymes, Guillaume; Namuganga, Jane Frances; Dorsey, Grant; Nasri, Bouchra; Zinszer, Kate (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2023)
Background: Few studies have explored how vector control interventions may modify associations between environmental factors and malaria. Methods: We used weekly malaria cases reported from six public health facilities in Uganda. Environmental variables (temperature, rainfall, humidity, and vegetation) were extracted from remote sensing sources. The non-linearity of environmental variables was investigated, and negative binomial regression models were used to explore the influence of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) on associations between environmental factors and malaria incident cases for each site as well as pooled across the facilities, with or without considering the interaction between environmental variables and vector control interventions. Results: An average of 73.3 weekly malaria cases per site (range: 0–597) occurred between 2010 and 2018. From the pooled model, malaria risk related to environmental variables was reduced by about 35% with LLINs and 63% with IRS. Significant interactions were observed between some environmental variables and vector control interventions. There was site-specific variability in the shape of the environment–malaria risk relationship and in the influence of interventions (6 to 72% reduction in cases with LLINs and 43 to 74% with IRS). Conclusion: The influence of vector control interventions on the malaria–environment relationship need to be considered at a local scale in order to efficiently guide control programs.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Differential impact of environment on malaria due to control interventions in Uganda, 2010-2018 - Sadoine, Margaux; Smargiassi, Audrey; Liu, Ying; Gachon, Philippe; Dueymes, Guillaume; Namuganga, Jane Frances; Dorsey, Grant; Fournier, Michel; Nasri, Bouchra; Zinszer, Kate (ISEE Conference Abstracts, 2022)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

The influence of the environment and indoor residual spraying on malaria risk in a cohort of children in Uganda - Sadoine, Margaux L.; Smargiassi, Audrey; Liu, Ying; Gachon, Philippe; Dueymes, Guillaume; Dorsey, Grant; Fournier, Michel; Nankabirwa, Joaniter I.; Rek, John; Zinszer, Kate (Scientific Reports, 2022)
Studies have estimated the impact of the environment on malaria incidence although few have explored the differential impact due to malaria control interventions. Therefore, the objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the relationship between malaria and environment (i.e. rainfall, temperatures, humidity, and vegetation) using data from a dynamic cohort of children from three sub-counties in Uganda. Environmental variables were extracted from remote sensing sources and averaged over different time periods. General linear mixed models were constructed for each sub-counties based on a log-binomial distribution. The influence of IRS was analysed by comparing marginal effects of environment in models adjusted and unadjusted for IRS. Great regional variability in the shape (linear and non-linear), direction, and magnitude of environmental associations with malaria risk were observed between sub-counties. IRS was significantly associated with malaria risk reduction (risk ratios vary from RR = 0.03, CI 95% [0.03–0.08] to RR = 0.35, CI95% [0.28–0.42]). Model adjustment for this intervention changed the magnitude and/or direction of environment-malaria associations, suggesting an interaction effect. This study evaluated the potential influence of IRS in the malaria-environment association and highlighted the necessity to control for interventions when they are performed to properly estimate the environmental influence on malaria. Local models are more informative to guide intervention program compared to national models.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate - Sadeghieh, Tara; Sargeant, Jan M.; Greer, Amy L.; Berke, Olaf; Dueymes, Guillaume; Gachon, Philippe; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Ng, Victoria (Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate - Sadeghieh, Tara; Sargeant, Jan M.; Greer, Amy L.; Berke, Olaf; Dueymes, Guillaume; Gachon, Philippe; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Ng, Victoria (Epidemics, 2021)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Predicted Northward Expansion of the Geographic Range of the Tick Vector Amblyomma americanum in North America under Future Climate Conditions - Sagurova, Irina; Ludwig, Antoinette; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Pelcat, Yann; Dueymes, Guillaume; Gachon, Philippe (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2019)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Inconsistent linear trends in Senegalese rainfall indices from 1950 to 2007 - Sarr, Mamadou Adama; Gachon, Philippe; Seidou, Ousmane; Bryant, Christopher Robin; Ndione, Jacques André; Comby, Jacques (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2015)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Assessment of simulations of a polar low with the Canadian Regional Climate Model - Moreno-Ibáñez, Marta; Laprise, René; Gachon, Philippe (PLOS ONE, 2023)
Polar lows (PLs), which are intense maritime polar mesoscale cyclones, are associated with severe weather conditions. Due to their small size and rapid development, PL forecasting remains a challenge. Convection-permitting models are adequate to forecast PLs since, compared to coarser models, they provide a better representation of convection as well as surface and near-surface processes. A PL that formed over the Norwegian Sea on 25 March 2019 was simulated using the convection-permitting Canadian Regional Climate Model version 6 (CRCM6/GEM4, using a grid mesh of 2.5 km) driven by the reanalysis ERA5. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of the initial conditions on the simulation of the PL, and to assess the skill of the CRCM6/GEM4 at reproducing the PL. The results show that the skill of the CRCM6/GEM4 at reproducing the PL strongly depends on the initial conditions. Although in all simulations the synoptic environment is favourable for PL development, with a strong low-level temperature gradient and an upper-level through, only the low-level atmospheric fields of three of the simulations lead to PL development through baroclinic instability. The two simulations that best captured the PL represent a PL deeper than the observed one, and they show higher temperature mean bias compared to the other simulations, indicating that the ocean surface fluxes may be too strong. In general, ERA5 has more skill than the simulations at reproducing the observed PL, but the CRCM6/GEM4 simulation with initialisation time closer to the genesis time of the PL reproduces quite well small scale features as low-level baroclinic instability during the PL development phase.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Analysis of the Development Mechanisms of a Polar Low over the Norwegian Sea Simulated with the Canadian Regional Climate Model - Moreno-Ibáñez, Marta; Laprise, René; Gachon, Philippe (Atmosphere, 2023)
Polar lows (PLs) are maritime mesoscale cyclones associated with severe weather. They develop during marine cold air outbreaks near coastlines and the sea ice edge. Unfortunately, our knowledge about the mechanisms leading to PL development is still incomplete. This study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the development mechanisms of a PL that formed over the Norwegian Sea on 25 March 2019 using the output of a simulation with the sixth version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM6/GEM4), a convection-permitting model. First, the life cycle of the PL is described and the vertical wind shear environment is analysed. Then, the horizontal wind divergence and the baroclinic conversion term are computed, and a surface pressure tendency equation is developed. In addition, the roles of atmospheric static stability, latent heat release, and surface heat and moisture fluxes are explored. The results show that the PL developed in a forward-shear environment and that moist baroclinic instability played a major role in its genesis and intensification. Baroclinic instability was initially only present at low levels of the atmosphere, but later extended upward until it reached the mid-troposphere. Whereas the latent heat of condensation and the surface heat fluxes also contributed to the development of the PL, convective available potential energy and barotropic conversion do not seem to have played a major role in its intensification. In conclusion, this study shows that a convection-permitting model simulation is a powerful tool to study the details of the structure of PLs, as well as their development mechanisms.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850 - Morineau, Chloé; Boulanger, Yan; Gachon, Philippe; Plante, Sabrina; St‐Laurent, Martin‐Hugues (Global Change Biology, 2023)
Abstract The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat‐mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Recent advances in polar low research: current knowledge, challenges and future perspectives - Moreno-Ibáñez, Marta; Laprise, René; Gachon, Philippe (Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2021)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change - Rees, Ee; Ng, V; Gachon, P; Mawudeku, A; McKenney, D; Pedlar, J; Yemshanov, D; Parmely, J; Knox, J (Canada Communicable Disease Report, 2019)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Stratégie d’évaluation des risques servant à la détection précoce et à la prédiction des éclosions de maladies infectieuses associées aux changements climatiques - Rees, Ee; Ng, V; Gachon, P; Mawudeku, A; McKenney, D; Pedlar, J; Yemshanov, D; Parmely, J; Knox, J (Relevé des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 2019)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect? - Ogden, Nh; Gachon, P (Canada Communicable Disease Report, 2019)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations - Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G. (Climate Dynamics, 2018)
Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981–2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal ‘seriality’, as a measure of their temporal variability at a given location. In fact, the driving models induce some significant footprints on the RCM skill to reproduce the intra-seasonal pattern of storm activity.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

West African monsoon intraseasonal activity and its daily precipitation indices in regional climate models: diagnostics and challenges - Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Dueymes, G.; Diaconescu, E.; Laprise, R.; Seidou Sanda, I. (Climate Dynamics, 2016)
The West African monsoon intraseasonal variability has huge socio-economic impacts on local populations but understanding and predicting it still remains a challenge for the weather prediction and climate scientific community. This paper analyses an ensemble of simulations from six regional climate models (RCMs) taking part in the coordinated regional downscaling experiment, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) and three satellite-based and observationally-constrained daily precipitation datasets, to assess the performance of the RCMs with regard to the intraseasonal variability. A joint analysis of seasonal-mean precipitation and the total column water vapor (also called precipitable water—PW) suggests the existence of important links at different timescales between these two variables over the Sahel and highlights the relevance of using PW to follow the monsoon seasonal cycle. RCMs that fail to represent the seasonal-mean position and amplitude of the meridional gradient of PW show the largest discrepancies with respect to seasonal-mean observed precipitation. For both ERAI and RCMs, spectral decompositions of daily PW as well as rainfall show an overestimation of low-frequency activity (at timescales longer than 10 days) at the expense of the synoptic (timescales shorter than 10 days) activity. Consequently, the effects of the African Easterly Waves and the associated mesoscale convective systems are substantially underestimated, especially over continental regions. Finally, the study investigates the skill of the models with respect to hydro-climatic indices related to the occurrence, intensity and frequency of precipitation events at the intraseasonal scale. Although most of these indices are generally better reproduced with RCMs than reanalysis products, this study indicates that RCMs still need to be improved (especially with respect to their subgrid-scale parameterization schemes) to be able to reproduce the intraseasonal variance spectrum adequately.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Sampling errors of quantile estimations from finite samples of data - Roy, Philippe; Laprise, R.; Gachon, P. (2016)
Empirical relationships are derived for the expected sampling error of quantile estimations using Monte Carlo experiments for two frequency distributions frequently encountered in climate sciences. The relationships found are expressed as a scaling factor times the standard error of the mean; these give a quick tool to estimate the uncertainty of quantiles for a given finite sample size.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

The 2011 flood event in the Richelieu River basin: Causes, assessment and damages - Saad, Christian; St-Hilaire, André; Gachon, Philippe; El Adlouni, Salaheddine (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2016)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

An alternative method to characterize the surface urban heat island - Martin, Philippe; Baudouin, Yves; Gachon, Philippe (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2015)
An urban heat island (UHI) is a relative measure defined as a metropolitan area that is warmer than the surrounding suburban or rural areas. The UHI nomenclature includes a surface urban heat island (SUHI) definition that describes the land surface temperature (LST) differences between urban and suburban areas. The complexity involved in selecting an urban core and external thermal reference for estimating the magnitude of a UHI led us to develop a new definition of SUHIs that excludes any rural comparison. The thermal reference of these newly defined surface intra-urban heat islands (SIUHIs) is based on various temperature thresholds above the spatial average of LSTs within the city’s administrative limits. A time series of images from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) from 1984 to 2011 was used to estimate the LST over the warm season in Montreal, Québec, Canada. Different SIUHI categories were analyzed in consideration of the global solar radiation (GSR) conditions that prevailed before each acquisition date of the Landsat images. The results show that the cumulative GSR observed 24 to 48 h prior to the satellite overpass is significantly linked with the occurrence of the highest SIUHI categories (thresholds of +3 to +7 °C above the mean spatial LST within Montreal city). The highest correlation (≈0.8) is obtained between a pixel-based temperature that is 6 °C hotter than the city’s mean LST (SIUHI + 6) after only 24 h of cumulative GSR. SIUHI + 6 can then be used as a thermal threshold that characterizes hotspots within the city. This identification approach can be viewed as a useful criterion or as an initial step toward the development of heat health watch and warning system (HHWWS), especially during the occurrence of severe heat spells across urban areas.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus - Ogden, Nicholas H.; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe (Parasites & Vectors, 2014)
Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Respiratory and Otolaryngology Symptoms Following the 2019 Spring Floods in Quebec - Landaverde, Elsa; Généreux, Mélissa; Maltais, Danielle; Gachon, Philippe (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022)
Background: Although floods may have important respiratory health impacts, few studies have examined this issue. This study aims to document the long-term impacts of the spring floods of 2019 in Quebec by (1) describing the population affected by the floods; (2) assessing the impacts on the respiratory system according to levels of exposure; and (3) determining the association between stressors and respiratory health. Methods: A population health survey was carried out across the six most affected regions 8–10 months post-floods. Data were collected on self-reported otolaryngology (ENT) and respiratory symptoms, along with primary and secondary stressors. Three levels of exposure were examined: flooded, disrupted and unaffected. Results: One in ten respondents declared being flooded and 31.4% being disrupted by the floods. Flooded and disrupted participants reported significantly more ENT symptoms (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 3.18; 95% CI: 2.45–4.14; aOR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.45–2.14) and respiratory symptoms (aOR: 3.41; 95% CI: 2.45–4.75; aOR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.10–1.91) than the unaffected participants. All primary stressors and certain secondary stressors assessed were significantly associated with both ENT and respiratory symptoms, but no “dose–response” gradient could be observed. Conclusion: This study highlights the long-term adverse effects of flood exposure on respiratory health.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe; Généreux_Mélissa; Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2022; Site_internet_RIISQ

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends - Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017)
Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Occurrence, durée et intensité des précipitations simulées par deux modèles régionaux canadiens du climat sur la région du Maghreb - Jelassi, Mariem; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René (Atmosphere-Ocean, 2016)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Evaluation of Precipitation Indices over North America from Various Configurations of Regional Climate Models - Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René; Scinocca, John F. (Atmosphere-Ocean, 2016)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

On the Remapping Procedure of Daily Precipitation Statistics and Indices Used in Regional Climate Model Evaluation - Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015)
Abstract Gridded estimates of precipitation using both satellite and observational station data are regularly used as reference products in the evaluation of basic climate fields and derived indices as simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) over the current period. One of the issues encountered in RCM evaluation is the fact that RCMs and reference fields are usually on different grids and often at different horizontal resolutions. A proper RCM evaluation requires remapping on a common grid. For the climate indices or other derived fields, the remapping can be done in two ways: either as a first-step operation on the original field with the derived index computed on the final/common grid in a second step, or to compute first the climate index on the original grid before remapping or regridding it as a last-step operation on the final/common grid. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the two approaches affect the final field, thus contributing to one of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in Africa (CORDEX-Africa) goals of providing a benchmark framework for RCM evaluation over the West Africa monsoon area, using several daily precipitation indices. The results indicate the advantage of using the last-step remapping procedure, regardless of the mathematical method chosen for the remapping, in order to minimize errors in the indices under evaluation.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Evaluation of daily precipitation statistics and monsoon onset/retreat over western Sahel in multiple data sets - Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Gachon, Philippe; Scinocca, John; Laprise, René (Climate Dynamics, 2015)
The West Africa rainfall regime constitutes a considerable challenge for Regional Climate Models (RCMs) due to the complexity of dynamical and physical processes that characterise the West African Monsoon. In this paper, daily precipitation statistics are evaluated from the contributions to the AFRICA-CORDEX experiment from two ERA-Interim driven Canadian RCMs: CanRCM4, developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) and CRCM5, developed at the University of Québec at Montréal. These modelled precipitation statistics are evaluated against three gridded observed datasets—the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and the Africa Rainfall Climatology (ARC2)—and four reanalysis products (ECMWF ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II, NASA MERRA and NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis). The two RCMs share the same dynamics from the Environment Canada GEM forecast model, but have two different physics’ packages: CanRCM4 obtains its physics from CCCma’s global atmospheric model (CanAM4), while CRCM5 shares a number of its physics modules with the limited-area version of GEM forecast model. The evaluation is focused on various daily precipitation statistics (maximum number of consecutive wet days, number of moderate and very heavy precipitation events, precipitation frequency distribution) and on the monsoon onset and retreat over the Sahel region. We find that the CRCM5 has a good representation of daily precipitation statistics over the southern Sahel, with spatial distributions close to GPCP dataset. Some differences are observed in the northern part of the Sahel, where the model is characterised by a dry bias. CanRCM4 and the ERA-Interim and MERRA reanalysis products overestimate the number of wet days over Sahel with a shift in the frequency distribution toward smaller daily precipitation amounts than in observations. Both RCMs and reanalyses have difficulties in reproducing the local onset date over the Sahel region. Nevertheless, the large-scale features of the monsoon precipitation evolution over West Africa are well reproduced by the RCMs, whereas the northern limit of the rainy bands is less accurately reproduced. Both RCMs exhibit an overall good representation of the local retreat index over the Sahel region.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of climate change on a combined sewer overflow and its receiving water body - Gooré Bi, Eustache; Monette, Frédéric; Gachon, Philippe; Gaspéri, Johnny; Perrodin, Yves (Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2015)
Projections from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) for the southern part of the province of Québec, Canada, suggest an increase in extreme precipitation events for the 2050 horizon (2041–2070). The main goal of this study consisted in a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of the 20 % increase in rainfall intensity that led, in the summer of 2013, to overflows in the “Rolland-Therrien” combined sewer system in the city of Longueuil, Canada. The PCSWMM 2013 model was used to assess the sensitivity of this overflow under current (2013) and future (2050) climate conditions. The simulated quantitative variables (peak flow, QCSO, and volume discharged, VD) served as the basis for deriving ecotoxicological risk indices and event fluxes (EFs) transported to the St. Lawrence (SL) River. Results highlighted 15 to 500 % increases in VD and 13 to 148 % increases in QCSO by 2050 (compared to 2013), based on eight rainfall events measured from May to October. These results show that (i) the relationships between precipitation and combined sewer overflow variables are not linear and (ii) the design criteria for current hydraulic infrastructure must be revised to account for the impact of climate change (CC) arising from changes in precipitation regimes. EFs discharged into the SL River will be 2.24 times larger in the future than they are now (2013) due to large VDs resulting from CC. This will, in turn, lead to excessive inputs of total suspended solids (TSSs) and tracers for numerous urban pollutants (organic matter and nutrients, metals) into the receiving water body. Ecotoxicological risk indices will increase by more than 100 % by 2050 compared to 2013. Given that substantial VDs are at play, and although CC scenarios have many sources of uncertainty, strategies to adapt this drainage network to the effects of CC will have to be developed.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Multisite statistical downscaling model for daily precipitation combined by multivariate multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator - Jeong, D. I.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Gachon, P. (Climatic Change, 2012)
This study provides a multi-site hybrid statistical downscaling procedure combining regression-based and stochastic weather generation approaches for multisite simulation of daily precipitation. In the hybrid model, the multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) is employed for simultaneous downscaling of deterministic series of daily precipitation occurrence and amount using large-scale reanalysis predictors over nine different observed stations in southern Québec (Canada). The multivariate normal distribution, the first-order Markov chain model, and the probability distribution mapping technique are employed for reproducing temporal variability and spatial dependency on the multisite observations of precipitation series. The regression-based MMLR model explained 16 % ~ 22 % of total variance in daily precipitation occurrence series and 13 % ~ 25 % of total variance in daily precipitation amount series of the nine observation sites. Moreover, it constantly over-represented the spatial dependency of daily precipitation occurrence and amount. In generating daily precipitation, the hybrid model showed good temporal reproduction ability for number of wet days, cross-site correlation, and probabilities of consecutive wet days, and maximum 3-days precipitation total amount for all observation sites. However, the reproducing ability of the hybrid model for spatio-temporal variations can be improved, i.e. to further increase the explained variance of the observed precipitation series, as for example by using regional-scale predictors in the MMLR model. However, in all downscaling precipitation results, the hybrid model benefits from the stochastic weather generator procedure with respect to the single use of deterministic component in the MMLR model.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

The 2023 wildfire season in Québec: an overview of extreme conditions, impacts, lessons learned and considerations for the future - Boulanger, Yan; Arseneault, Dominique; Bélisle, Annie Claude; Bergeron, Yves; Boucher, Jonathan; Boucher, Yan; Danneyrolles, Victor; Erni, Sandy; Gachon, Philippe; Girardin, Martin P.; Grant, Eliane; Grondin, Pierre; et al. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2024)
The 2023 wildfire season in Québec set records due to extreme warm and dry conditions, burning 4.5 million hectares and indicating persistent and escalating impacts associated with climate change. This study reviews the unusual weather conditions that led to the fires, discussing their extensive impacts on the forest sector, fire management, boreal caribou habitats, and particularly the profound effects on First Nation communities. The wildfires led to significant declines in forest productivity and timber supply, overwhelming fire management resources, and necessitating widespread evacuations. First Nation territories were dramatically altered, facing severe air quality issues and disruptions. While caribou impacts were modest across the province, the broader ecological, economical, and social repercussions were considerable. To mitigate future extreme wildfire seasons, the study suggests changes in forest management practices to increase forest resilience and resistance, adapting industrial structures to changes in wood type harvested, and enhancing fire suppression and risk management strategies. It calls for a comprehensive, unified approach to risk management that incorporates the lessons learned from the 2023 fire season and accounts for ongoing climate change. The studyunderscores the urgent need for detailed planning and proactive measures to reduce the growing risks and impacts of wildfires in a changing climate.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe; Guillemette_Francois

Natural disasters and risk aversion - Bourdeau-Brien, Michael; Kryzanowski, Lawrence (Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2020)
Keywords: Bourdeau-Brien_Michael; Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Comparison of three flood-related relocation programs with probabilistic cost-benefit analyses - Boudreault, Mathieu; Bourdeau-Brien, Michael; Milot, Nicolas (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2023)
Many regions are becoming subject to successive flooding and with climate change taking its toll, it is no surprise that we observe a growing interest for risk avoidance strategies such as relocation. Cost-benefit analysis is the dominant tool used by decision-makers to assess flood risk avoidance projects. Yet, few guidelines are available about how to implement such analysis. This paper advocates for a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and details a step-by-step procedure via a real-world example. The results show that relocation can be a cost-effective strategy for many high-risk properties and neighborhoods. The level of indemnities and the inclusion of intangible losses are two key drivers of profitability. The paper also analyzes three distinct designs of relocation programs. The results reveal that proactive and innovative schemes, such as managed retreat and usufruct arrangements, constitute worthwhile alternatives to a more conventional post-flood response design.
Keywords: Bourdeau-Brien_Michael; Infolettre; Infolettre_Novembre_2023

The impact of flood risk on the price of residential properties: the case of England - Bélanger, Philippe; Bourdeau-Brien, Michael (Housing Studies, 2018)
Keywords: Bourdeau-Brien_Michael; Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Soil and water bioengineering in cold rivers: A biogeomorphological perspective - Prugne, Matthieu; Corenblit, Dov; Boivin, Maxime; Evette, André; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas (Ecological Engineering, 2024)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Dynamiques hydrogéomorphologiques historiques et actuelles d'une rivière perturbée par les activités de la drave et analyse des impacts d'un démantèlement de barrage - Bouchard, Marianne; Boivin, Maxime (Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes, 2023)
Résumé Au Québec, la dynamique fluviale de la rivière des Escoumins a été perturbée par l'industrie forestière pendant plus d'un siècle. Un barrage a notamment été construit près de l'embouchure en 1846, puis démantelé en 2013. Ces perturbations ont entraîné des répercussions importantes sur l'équilibre du cours d'eau et sur l'habitat du saumon atlantique. Cette étude propose donc de caractériser la dynamique fluviale de la rivière des Escoumins et d'analyser les impacts du démantèlement du barrage dans une perspective de restauration des processus hydrogéomorphologiques et d'amélioration de l'habitat du saumon atlantique. Les résultats suggèrent que la trajectoire de la rivière a évolué différemment en fonction du style fluvial et de la composition granulométrique de chacun de ses segments homogènes. Toutefois, ce sont les activités de la drave et le démantèlement du barrage qui semblent avoir été les facteurs de contrôle les plus importants sur l'évolution de la trajectoire du cours d'eau. Le démantèlement a notamment permis la restauration de processus hydrogéomorphologiques et la libre circulation des salmonidés. Une meilleure procédure entourant le démantèlement des barrages et leur suivi devrait donc être mise en place au Canada afin de favoriser cette pratique . , Abstract In Quebec, the fluvial dynamics of the Escoumins River have been disturbed by the forestry industry for over a century. Most specifically, a dam was built near the mouth of the river in 1846 and dismantled in 2013. These disturbances had significant repercussions on the equilibrium of the river and Atlantic salmon habitat. This study therefore proposes to characterize the fluvial dynamics of the Escoumins River and to analyze the impacts of the dam dismantling from the perspective of restoring hydrogeomorphological processes and improving Atlantic salmon habitat. The results suggest that the trajectory of the river evolved differently depending on the fluvial style and the grain size composition of each of its homogeneous segments. However, log drive activities in river and dam removal appear to have been the most important controlling factors on the evolution of the stream trajectory. The dismantling notably allowed the restoration of hydrogeomorphological processes and the free movement of salmonids. A better procedure for dam removal and monitoring should be put in place in Canada to encourage this practice . , Messages clés Les activités de la drave et le démantèlement du barrage ont fortement affecté la trajectoire hydrogéomorphologique de la rivière des Escoumins, au Québec. Un démantèlement de barrage permet une restauration globale de l'écosystème fluvial et de ses processus hydrogéomorphologiques en plus d'améliorer les habitats disponibles pour les espèces aquatiques. Le démantèlement des barrages désuets ou désaffectés doit être considéré pour la restauration des écosystèmes fluviaux et une meilleure procédure entourant cette pratique doit être mise en place au Canada.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Detection of Management Practices and Cropping Phases in Wild Lowbush Blueberry Fields Using Multispectral UAV Data - Marty, Charles; Khare, Siddhartha; Rossi, Sergio; Lafond, Jean; Boivin, Maxime; Paré, Maxime C. (Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 2022)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Japanese knotweed increases soil erosion on riverbanks - Matte, Rébecca; Boivin, Maxime; Lavoie, Claude (River Research and Applications, 2022)
Abstract For years, Japanese knotweed ( Reynoutria japonica ) has been suspected of accelerating riverbank erosion, despite a lack of convincing evidence. The stems of this invasive plant die back following the first autumn frosts, leaving the soil unprotected during winter and spring floods. In Québec (Canada), riverbank erosion may also be accentuated by ice during mechanical ice breakups. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of knotweed on riverbank erosion along a river invaded by the species, within a context of floods with ice. The elevation along 120 cross‐sectional riverbank profiles, occupied or not by knotweed, was measured before and after the spring flood of 2019. On average, riverbanks occupied by knotweed had nearly 3 cm more soil erosion than riverbanks without knotweed, a statistically significant difference. Stem density also influenced erosion: the higher the density, the greater the soil loss. Certain riverside conditions, such as the slope of the riverbank or being located on an islet, interacted with knotweed, further accentuating erosion. Soil losses measured between November 2018 and May–June 2019 were particularly pronounced, but the spring flood was also exceptional, with a recurrence interval close to 50 years. On the other hand, soil loss from rivers invaded by knotweed can be expected to increase over time, as this invasive species spreads rapidly in riparian habitats.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime; Infolettre; Infolettre_Janvier_2022; Site_internet_RIISQ

Can the Morphological Quality Index (MQI) be used to determine the ecological status of lowland rivers? - Lemay, Johnathan; Biron, Pascale M.; Boivin, Maxime; Stämpfli, Nicolas; Foote, Kyleisha (Geomorphology, 2021)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Overview of Retrogressive Landslide Risk Analysis in Sensitive Clay Slope - Richer, Blanche; Saeidi, Ali; Boivin, Maxime; Rouleau, Alain (Geosciences, 2020)
Sensitive clays are known for producing retrogressive landslides, also called spread or flowslides. The key characteristics associated with the occurrence of these landslides on a sensitive clay slope must be assessed, and the potential retrogressive distance must be evaluated. Common risk analysis methods include empirical methods for estimating the distance of potential retrogression, analytical limit equilibrium methods, numerical modelling methods using the strength reduction technique, and the integration of a progressive failure mechanism into numerical methods. Methods developed for zoning purposes in Norway and Quebec provide conservative results in most cases, even if they don’t cover the worst cases scenario. A flowslide can be partially analysed using analytical limit equilibrium methods and numerical methods having strength reduction factor tools. Numerical modelling of progressive failure mechanisms using numerical methods can define the critical parameters of spread-type landslides, such as critical unloading and the retrogression distance of the failure. Continuous improvements to the large-deformation numerical modeling approach allow its application to all types of sensitive clay landslides.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Using tree-rings to determine large wood residence time and transport pulses in a gravel-bed river - Boivin, Maxime; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Arseneault, Dominique (E3S Web of Conferences, 2018)
The Saint-Jean River (SRJ) in Eastern Canada is prone to the formation of very large rafts of wood. Managers of the SJR suspected these jams to influence salmon migration and carried out a dismantling operation to remove large wood accumulated in a 1.2 km long wood raft. This operation became a great opportunity to address key issues relating to large wood dynamics in a fluvial system: residence time and flood contribution to wood recruitment and transport. During the dismantling, we systematically sampled 319 trees from which year of death could be estimated from dendrochronology and year of accumulation in the raft could be obtained from satellite and aerial photos. These two dates allowed us to quantify the residence time for 262 datable large wood (LW) within the fluvial system, to examine the peak years of LW recruitment and to correlate the raft growth rate with hydrometeorological conditions since 1993. The results also emphasized four types of LW flood related to wood dynamics: 1) an erosive flood that produces a large amount of wood in river, 2) a mobilizing flood that carries large quantities of wood, 3) a flood mix that both recruits and transports large quantities of wood, and 4) an ice-breakup flood.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Caractérisation de la qualité morphologique et étude de la dynamique hydrosédimentaire du secteur estuarien de la rivière Saint-Anne, Sainte-Anne-de-la-Pérade (Québec) - Berube, Johan; Boivin, Maxime (2021)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Estimation of large wood budgets in a watershed and river corridor at interdecadal to interannual scales in a cold‐temperate fluvial system - Boivin, Maxime; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas; Piégay, Hervé (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2017)
Abstract Large wood (LW) is a ubiquitous feature in rivers of forested watersheds worldwide, and its importance for river diversity has been recognized for several decades. Although the role of LW in fluvial dynamics has been extensively documented, there is a need to better quantify the most significant components of LW budgets at the river scale. The purpose of our study was to quantify each component (input, accumulation, and output) of a LW budget at the reach and watershed scales for different time periods (i.e. a 50‐year period, decadal cycle, and interannual cycle). The LW budget was quantified by measuring the volumes of LW inputs, accumulations, and outputs within river sections that were finally evacuated from the watershed. The study site included three unusually large but natural wood rafts in the delta of the Saint‐Jean River (SJR; Québec, Canada) that have accumulated all LW exported from the watershed for the last 50 years. We observed an increase in fluvial dynamics since 2004, which led to larger LW recruitment and a greater LW volume trapped in the river corridor, suggesting that the system is not in equilibrium in terms of the wood budget but is rather recovering from previous human pressures as well as adjusting to hydroclimatic changes. The results reveal the large variability in the LW budget dynamics during the 50‐year period and allow us to examine the eco‐hydromorphological trajectory that highlights key variables (discharge, erosion rates, bar surface area, sinuosity, wood mobility, and wood retention). Knowledge on the dynamics of these variables improves our understanding of the historical and future trajectories of LW dynamics and fluvial dynamics in gravel‐bed rivers. Extreme events (flood and ice‐melt) significantly contribute to LW dynamics in the SJR river system. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Interannual kinetics (2010–2013) of large wood in a river corridor exposed to a 50-year flood event and fluvial ice dynamics - Boivin, Maxime; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Piégay, Hervé (Geomorphology, 2017)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime

Finding the Voice of the River: Beyond Restoration and ManagementFinding the Voice of the River: Beyond Restoration and ManagementGary J.Brierley. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Pivot, 2020. xviii and 179 pp., references, index. $59.99 hardcover (ISBN 978-3-030-27067-4), $44.99 electronic (ISBN 978-3-030-27068-1).: Gary J. Brierley. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Pivot, 2020. xviii and 179 pp., references, index. $59.99 hardcover (ISBN 978-3-030-27067-4), $44.99 electronic (ISBN 978-3-030-27068-1). - Tooth, Stephen (The AAG Review of Books, 2023)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Switzerland’s transition from flood defence to flood-adapted land use–A policy coordination perspective - Löschner, Lukas; Nordbeck, Ralf (Land Use Policy, 2020)

Large Scale Flood Risk Mapping in Data Scarce Environments: An Application for Romania - Albano, Raffaele; Samela, Caterina; Crăciun, Iulia; Manfreda, Salvatore; Adamowski, Jan; Sole, Aurelia; Sivertun, Åke; Ozunu, Alexandru (Water, 2020)
Large-scale flood risk assessment is essential in supporting national and global policies, emergency operations and land-use management. The present study proposes a cost-efficient method for the large-scale mapping of direct economic flood damage in data-scarce environments. The proposed framework consists of three main stages: (i) deriving a water depth map through a geomorphic method based on a supervised linear binary classification; (ii) generating an exposure land-use map developed from multi-spectral Landsat 8 satellite images using a machine-learning classification algorithm; and (iii) performing a flood damage assessment using a GIS tool, based on the vulnerability (depth–damage) curves method. The proposed integrated method was applied over the entire country of Romania (including minor order basins) for a 100-year return time at 30-m resolution. The results showed how the description of flood risk may especially benefit from the ability of the proposed cost-efficient model to carry out large-scale analyses in data-scarce environments. This approach may help in performing and updating risk assessments and management, taking into account the temporal and spatial changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

“Sickenin’ in the rain” – increased risk of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections after urban pluvial flooding in a population-based cross-sectional study in the Netherlands - Mulder, Annemieke Christine; Pijnacker, Roan; De Man, Heleen; Van De Kassteele, Jan; Van Pelt, Wilfrid; Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Franz, Eelco (BMC Infectious Diseases, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Room for Rivers: Risk Reduction by Enhancing the Flood Conveyance Capacity of The Netherlands’ Large Rivers - Klijn, Frans; Asselman, Nathalie; Wagenaar, Dennis (Geosciences, 2018)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

A participatory system dynamics modeling approach to facilitate collaborative flood risk management: A case study in the Bradano River (Italy) - Perrone, Antonio; Inam, Azhar; Albano, Raffaele; Adamowski, Jan; Sole, Aurelia (Journal of Hydrology, 2020)

Use of digital elevation models for flood susceptibility assessment via a hydrogeomorphic approach: A case study of the Basento River in Italy - Albano, Raffaele; Adamowski, Jan (Natural Hazards, 2025)
Abstract Floods are the most common and threatening natural risk for many countries in the world. Flood risk mapping is therefore of great importance for managing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Several researchers have proposed low-complexity and cost-effective flood mapping solutions that are useful for data scarce environments or at large-scale. Among these approaches, a line of recent research focuses on hydrogeomorphic methods that, due to digital elevation models (DEMs), exploit the causality between past flood events and the hydraulic geometry of floodplains. This study aims to compare the use of freely-available DEMs to support an advanced hydrogeomorphic method, Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI), to map flood-prone areas of the Basento River basin (Italy). The five selected DEMs are obtained from different sources, are characterized by different resolutions, spatial coverage, acquisition process, processing and validation, etc., and include: (i) HydroSHEDS v.1.1 (resolution 3 arc-seconds), hydrologically conditioned, derived primarily from STRM (NASA) and characterized by global coverage; (ii) ASTER GDEM v.3 with a res. of around 30 m (source: METI and NASA) and global coverage; (iii) EU-DEM v. 1.1 (res. 1 arc-second), Pan-European and combining SRTM and ASTER GDEM, customized to obtain a consistency with the EU-Hydro and screened to remove artefacts (source: Copernicus Land Monitoring Service); (iv) TinItaly DEM v. 1.1, (res. 10 m-cell size grid) and produced and distributed by INGV with coverage of the entire Italian territory; (v) Laser Scanner DEM with high resolution (5 m cell size grid) produced on the basis of Ground e Model Keypoint and available as part of the RSDI geoportal of the Basilicata Region with coverage at the regional administrative level. The effects of DEMs on the performance of the GFI calibration on the main reach of the Basento River, and its validation on one of its mountain tributaries (Gallitello Creek), were evaluated with widely accepted statistical metrics, i.e., the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC), Accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity. Results confirmed the merits of the GFI in flood mapping using simple watershed characteristics and showed high Accuracy (AUC reached a value over 0.9 in all simulations) and low dependency on changes in the adopted DEMs and standard flood maps (1D and 2D hydraulic models or three return periods). The EU-DEM was identified as the most suitable data source for supporting GFI mapping with an AUC > 0.97 in the calibration phase for the main river reach. This may be due in part to its appropriate resolution for hydrological application but was also due to its customized pre-processing that supported an optimal description of the river network morphology. Indeed, EU-DEM obtained the highest performances (e.g., Accuracy around 98%) even in the validation phase where better results were expected from the high-resolution DEM (due to the very small size of Gallitello Creek cross-sections). For other DEMs, GFI generally showed an increase in metrics performance when, in the calibration phase, it neglected the floodplains of the river delta, where the standard flood map is produced using a 2D hydraulic model. However, if the DEMs were hydrologically conditioned with a relatively simple algorithm that forced the stream flow in the main river network, the GFI could be applied to the whole Basento watershed, including the delta, with a similar performance.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Fevrier_2025

Flood scenario spatio-temporal mapping via hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling and a remote sensing dataset: A case study of the Basento river (Southern Italy) - Albano, Raffaele; Limongi, Carmine; Dal Sasso, Silvano Fortunato; Mancusi, Leonardo; Adamowski, Jan (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2024)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Septembre_2024

Bar pattern and sediment sorting in a channel contraction/expansion area: Application to the Loire River at Bréhémont (France) - Cordier, Florian; Tassi, Pablo; Claude, Nicolas; Crosato, Alessandra; Rodrigues, Stéphane; Pham Van Bang, Damien (Advances in Water Resources, 2020)
Keywords: PhamVanBang_Damien

Influence of hydrology, sediment supply and sediment gradation on river bar morphodynamics: application to the Loire River at Bréhémont (France) - Cordier, Florian; Tassi, Pablo; Claude, Nicolas; Crosato, Alessandra; Rodrigues, Stephane; Van Bang, Damien Pham (E3S Web of Conferences, 2018)
Rivers inherently show heterogeneous sediment sizes and can also show a strong sediment supply variability in time because of natural episodic events or as a consequence of human activities, which alter the characteristics and dynamics of alluvial bars at the macro-scale. The impact of the combination between sediment size heterogeneity and sediment supply variation, or even with other forcings (i.e. hydrology, channel geometry) remains poorly documented. In this work, a physics-based numerical model is applied on a trained reach of a sandy-gravel bed river to investigate the combination of these parameters on bar morphodynamics. The morphodynamic computations are performed with a two-dimensional depth-averaged hydrodynamic solver, internally coupled to a sediment transport and bed evolution module, which estimate the transport of graded sediment and model bed stratigraphy, respectively. A 1 km long reach of the Loire River at Bréhémont (France) is selected to conduct the numerical investigations. The interaction between several forcing mechanisms induces highly complex bar morphodynamic processes in this area.A comprehensive set of high-definition data is available, which allows to study the river morphodynamics for a succession of three flooding events and a period of low flows. Based on this model, a variety of scenarios is presented with the aim of exploring the implications of sediment gradation, geometrical and boundary forcing effects on in situ bars morphodynamics.
Keywords: PhamVanBang_Damien

Two-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport with mixed sediment and consolidation: Application to the Gironde Estuary, France - Orseau, Sylvain; Huybrechts, Nicolas; Tassi, Pablo; Pham Van Bang, Damien; Klein, Fabrice (International Journal of Sediment Research, 2021)
Keywords: PhamVanBang_Damien

A 3D Numerical Study on the Tidal Asymmetry, Residual Circulation and Saline Intrusion in the Gironde Estuary (France) - Pham Van Bang, Damien; Phan, Ngoc Vinh; Guillou, Sylvain; Nguyen, Kim Dan (Water, 2023)
A full 3D numerical model is used for studying tidal asymmetry, estuarine circulation, and saline intrusion in the Gironde estuary. The model is calibrated and verified using the data measured during two field surveys in the Gironde estuary. Harmonic analysis of numerical results is proposed to understand how the superposition of M2, M4 and M6 components generate a complex estuarine circulation and salinity intrusion in the Gironde estuary. The numerical results show that the M6 component plays a significant role as important as the M4 one in modifying the nature of tidal asymmetry, especially in the Gironde upper estuary. In this case, the use of the phase lag between M2 and M4, neglecting M6, to predict the tidal asymmetry nature could produce errors. The effect of asymmetrical tides on saline intrusion and residual circulation is specifically discussed here.
Keywords: PhamVanBang_Damien

Impacts of disaster exposure on climate adaptation injustice across U.S. cities - Liu, Tong; Fan, Chao (2023)

Urban flood risk and green infrastructure: Who is exposed to risk and who benefits from investment? A case study of three U.S. Cities - Pallathadka, Arun; Sauer, Jason; Chang, Heejun; Grimm, Nancy B. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2022)

County-scale flood risk assessment of properties and associated population in the United States - Srivastava, Shivendra; Gerdes, Tyler; Roy, Tirthankar (Natural Hazards, 2024)

Soil Erosion in the United States. Present and Future (2020-2050) - Shojaeezadeh, Shahab Aldin; Al-Wardy, Malik; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Mooselu, Mehrdad Ghorbani; Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Moradkhani, Hamid; Alamdari, Nasrin; Gandomi, Amir H. (2022)
Soil erosion is a significant threat to the environment and long-term land management around the world. Accelerated soil erosion by human activities inflicts extreme changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, which is not fully surveyed/predicted for the present and probable future at field-scales (30-m). Here, we estimate/predict soil erosion rates by water erosion, (sheet and rill erosion), using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios across the contiguous United States. Field Scale Soil Erosion Model (FSSLM) estimations rely on a high resolution (30-m) G2 erosion model integrated by satellite- and imagery-based estimations of land use and land cover (LULC), gauge observations of long-term precipitation, and scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The baseline model (2020) estimates soil erosion rates of 2.32 Mg ha 1 yr 1 with current agricultural conservation practices (CPs). Future scenarios with current CPs indicate an increase between 8% to 21% under different combinations of SSP-RCP scenarios of climate and LULC changes. The soil erosion forecast for 2050 suggests that all the climate and LULC scenarios indicate either an increase in extreme events or a change in the spatial location of extremes largely from the southern to the eastern and northeastern regions of the United States.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Ete_2024

A rasterized building footprint dataset for the United States - Heris, Mehdi P.; Foks, Nathan Leon; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Troy, Austin; Ancona, Zachary H. (Scientific Data, 2020)
Abstract Microsoft released a U.S.-wide vector building dataset in 2018. Although the vector building layers provide relatively accurate geometries, their use in large-extent geospatial analysis comes at a high computational cost. We used High-Performance Computing (HPC) to develop an algorithm that calculates six summary values for each cell in a raster representation of each U.S. state, excluding Alaska and Hawaii: (1) total footprint coverage, (2) number of unique buildings intersecting each cell, (3) number of building centroids falling inside each cell, and area of the (4) average, (5) smallest, and (6) largest area of buildings that intersect each cell. These values are represented as raster layers with 30 m cell size covering the 48 conterminous states. We also identify errors in the original building dataset. We evaluate precision and recall in the data for three large U.S. urban areas. Precision is high and comparable to results reported by Microsoft while recall is high for buildings with footprints larger than 200 m2 but lower for progressively smaller buildings.
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation - Douglas, E.M.; Vogel, R.M.; Kroll, C.N. (Journal of Hydrology, 2000)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Local-Level Flood Hazard Management in Canada: An Assessment of Institutional Structure and Community Engagement in the Red River Valley of Manitoba - Zaman, Jobaed Ragib; Haque, C. Emdad; Walker, David J. (2022)
While there is a large body of literature focusing on global-level flood hazard management, including preparedness, response, and recovery, there is a lack of research examining the patterns and dynamics of community-level flood management with a focus on local engagement and institutional mechanism. The present research explores how local communities mobilize themselves, both individually and institutionally, to respond to emerging flood-related situations and recover from their impacts. A case study approach was applied to investigate two towns in the Red River Valley of Manitoba, Canada: St. Adolphe and Ste. Agathe. Data collection consisted of in-depth interviews and oral histories provided by local residents, in addition to analysis of secondary official records and documents. The findings revealed that local community-level flood preparedness, response, and recovery in the Province of Manitoba are primarily designed, governed, managed, and evaluated by the provincial government authorities using a top-down approach. The non-participatory nature of this approach makes community members reluctant to engage with precautionary and response measures, which in turn results in undesired losses and damages. It is recommended that the Government of Manitoba develop and implement a collaborative and participatory community-level flood management approach that draws upon the accumulated experiential knowledge of local stakeholders and institutions.

Identification of a preferred statistical distribution for at-site flood frequency analysis in Canada - Zhang, Ziyang; Stadnyk, Tricia A.; Burn, Donald H. (2020)
AbstractFloods are the most frequent natural disaster in Canada, putting Canadian lives and property at risk. Projected variations in precipitation and temperature are expected to further intensify...

Changes to flood peaks of a mountain river: implications for analysis of the 2013 flood in the Upper Bow River, Canada - Whitfield, Paul H.; Pomeroy, John W. (Hydrological Processes, 2016)
The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain-on-snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include floods events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales.

Climate indices to characterize climatic changes across southern Canada - Wazneh, Hussein; Arain, M. Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin (Meteorological Applications, 2020)
Abstract The present study analyses the impacts of past and future climate change on extreme weather events for southern parts of Canada from 1981 to 2100. A set of precipitation and temperature‐based indices were computed using the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi‐model ensemble projections at 8 km resolution over the 21st Century for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that this region is expected to experience stronger warming and a higher increase in precipitation extremes in future. Generally, projected changes in minimum temperature will be greater than changes in maximum temperature, as shown by respective indices. A decrease in frost days and an increase in warm nights will be expected. By 2100 there will be no cool nights and cool days. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by 12 and 7°C, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario, when compared with the reference period 1981–2000. The highest warming in minimum temperature and decrease in cool nights and days will occur in Ontario and Quebec provinces close to the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. The highest warming in maximum temperature will occur in the southern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Annual total precipitation is expected to increase by about 16% and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events by five days. The highest increase in annual total precipitation will occur in the northern parts of Ontario and Quebec and in western British Columbia.

Historical Spatial and Temporal Climate Trends in Southern Ontario, Canada - Wazneh, Hussein; Arain, M. Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2017)
Abstract Spatial and temporal trends in historical temperature and precipitation extreme events were evaluated for southern Ontario, Canada. A number of climate indices were computed using observed and regional and global climate datasets for the area of study over the 1951–2013 period. A decrease in the frequency of cold temperature extremes and an increase in the frequency of warm temperature extremes was observed in the region. Overall, the numbers of extremely cold days decreased and hot nights increased. Nighttime warming was greater than daytime warming. The annual total precipitation and the frequency of extreme precipitation also increased. Spatially, for the precipitation indices, no significant trends were observed for annual total precipitation and extremely wet days in the southwest and the central part of Ontario. For temperature indices, cool days and warm night have significant trends in more than 90% of the study area. In general, the spatial variability of precipitation indices is much higher than that of temperature indices. In terms of comparisons between observed and simulated data, results showed large differences for both temperature and precipitation indices. For this region, the regional climate model was able to reproduce historical observed trends in climate indices very well as compared with global climate models. The statistical bias-correction method generally improved the ability of the global climate models to accurately simulate observed trends in climate indices.

Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada - Wang, Xiuquan; Huang, Guohe; Liu, Jinliang; Li, Zhong; Zhao, Shan (Journal of Climate, 2015)
AbstractIn this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average tempera...

Observed Trends in Canada’s Climate and Influence of Low-Frequency Variability Modes - Vincent, Lucie A.; Zhang, Xuebin; Brown, Ross; Feng, Yang; Mekis, Eva; Milewska, Ewa J.; Wan, Hui; Wang, Xiaolan L. (Journal of Climate, 2015)
AbstractTrends in Canada’s climate are analyzed using recently updated data to provide a comprehensive view of climate variability and long-term changes over the period of instrumental record. Trends in surface air temperature, precipitation, snow cover, and streamflow indices are examined along with the potential impact of low-frequency variability related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic oscillations on these trends. The results show that temperature has increased significantly in most regions of Canada over the period 1948–2012, with the largest warming occurring in winter and spring. Precipitation has also increased, especially in the north. Changes in other climate and hydroclimatic variables, including a decrease in the amount of precipitation falling as snow in the south, fewer days with snow cover, an earlier start of the spring high-flow season, and an increase in April streamflow, are consistent with the observed warming and precipitation trends. For the period 1900–2012, there are suffici...

Individual and environmental correlates of tap water consumption among adolescents in Canada - Vézina-Im, Lydi-Anne; Beaulieu, Dominique; Turcotte, Stéphane; Turcotte, Anne-Frédérique; Lessard, Lily; Delisle-Martel, Joannie; Boucher, Danielle; Labbé, Valérie; Gingras, Mariane (Appetite, 2024)
Keywords: Lessard_Lily

Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data - Vincent, L.A.; Zhang, Xuebin; Mekis, É.; Wan, Hui; Bush, E.J. (Atmosphere-ocean, 2018)
ABSTRACTTrends in indices based on daily temperature and precipitation are examined for two periods: 1948–2016 for all stations in Canada and 1900–2016 for stations in the south of Canada. These in...

Monitoring the evolution of individuals’ flood-related adaptive behaviors over time: two cross-sectional surveys conducted in the Province of Quebec, Canada - Valois, Pierre; Tessier, Maxime; Bouchard, David; Talbot, Denis; Morin, Alexandre J. S.; Anctil, François; Cloutier, Geneviève (BMC Public Health, 2020)
Abstract Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of floods in the province of Quebec, Canada. Therefore, in 2015, to better monitor the level of adaptation to flooding of Quebec residents living in or near a flood-prone area, the Quebec Observatory of Adaptation to Climate Change developed five indices of adaptation to flooding, according to the chronology of events. The present study was conducted 4 years later and is a follow-up to the 2015 one. Two independent samples of 1951 (2015) and 974 (2019) individuals completed a questionnaire on their adoption (or non-adoption) of flood adaptation behaviors, their perception of the mental and physical impacts of flooding, and their knowledge of the fact that they lived in a flood-prone area. The results of the study demonstrated the measurement invariance of the five indices across two different samples of people over time, ensuring that the differences (or absence of differences) observed in flood-related adaptive behaviors between 2015 and 2019 were real and not due to measurement errors. They also showed that, overall, Quebeckers’ flood-related adaptive behaviors have not changed considerably since 2015, with adaptation scores being similar in 2019 for four of the five flood indices. Moreover, the results indicated an increase in self-reported physical and mental health issues related to past flooding events, as well as a larger proportion of people having consulted a health professional because of these problems. Thus, this study provides a better understanding of flood adaptation in Quebec over the past 4 years and confirms that the five adaptive behavior indices developed in 2015 are appropriate tools for monitoring changes in flood adaptation in the province. Finally, our results showed that little has changed in Quebeckers’ adoption of adaptive behaviors, highlighting the need for awareness raising in order to limit the impacts that climate change will have on the population.

Assessment of the Potential Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec—Canada, a Refined Neutral Approach - Valencia Giraldo, Marinela Del Carmen; Ricard, Simon; Anctil, François (Water, 2023)
There is currently much discussion as to whether probabilistic (top–down) or possibilistic (bottom–up) approaches are the most appropriate to estimate potential future climate impacts. In a context of deep uncertainty, such as future climate, bottom-up approaches aimed at assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability of systems to changes in climate variables have been gaining ground. A refined framework is proposed here (in terms of coherence, structure, uncertainty, and results analysis) that adopts the scenario–neutral method of the bottom–up approach, but also draws on some elements of the top–down approach. What better guides the task of assessing the potential hydroclimatological impacts of changing climatic conditions in terms of the sensitivity of the systems, differential analysis of climatic stressors, paths of change, and categorized response of the scenarios: past, changing, compensatory, and critical condition. The results revealed a regional behavior (of hydroclimatology, annual water balances, and snow) and a differential behavior (of low flows). We find, among others, the plausible scenario in which increases in temperature and precipitation would generate the same current mean annual flows, with a reduction of half of the snow, a decrease in low flows (significant, but differentiated between basins), and a generalized increase in dry events.

A synoptic climatology of potential seiche-inducing winds in a large intermontane lake: Quesnel Lake, British Columbia, Canada - Thompson, Hadleigh D.; Déry, Stephen J.; Jackson, Peter L.; Laval, Bernard E. (International Journal of Climatology, 2020)

Municipal flood risk sharing in Canada: A policy instrument analysis - Thistlethwaite, Jason; Henstra, Daniel (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2017)

2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada - Teufel, Bernardo; Sushama, Laxmi (Water, 2021)
Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

Nonlinear response of precipitation to climate indices using a non-stationary Poisson-generalized Pareto model: case study of southeastern Canada. - Thiombiano, Alida Nadège; St-Hilaire, André; Adlouni, Salaheddine El; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. (International Journal of Climatology, 2018)
Quantile estimates are generally interpreted in association with the return period concept in practical engineering. To do so with the peaks‐over‐threshold (POT) approach, combined Poisson‐generalized Pareto distributions (referred to as PD‐GPD model) must be considered. In this article, we evaluate the incorporation of non‐stationarity in the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) and the Poisson distribution (PD) using, respectively, the smoothing‐based B‐spline functions and the logarithmic link function. Two models are proposed, a stationary PD combined to a non‐stationary GPD (referred to as PD0‐GPD1) and a combined non‐stationary PD and GPD (referred to as PD1‐GPD1). The teleconnections between hydro‐climatological variables and a number of large‐scale climate patterns allow using these climate indices as covariates in the development of non‐stationary extreme value models. The case study is made with daily precipitation amount time series from southeastern Canada and two climatic covariates, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) indices. A comparison of PD0‐GPD1 and PD1‐GPD1 models showed that the incorporation of non‐stationarity in both POT models instead of solely in the GPD has an effect on the estimated quantiles. The use of the B‐spline function as link function between the GPD parameters and the considered climatic covariates provided flexible non‐stationary PD‐GPD models. Indeed, linear and nonlinear conditional quantiles are observed at various stations in the case study, opening an interesting perspective for further research on the physical mechanism behind these simple and complex interactions.

Flood rings, earlywood vessels and hydrological signal in Fraxinus pennsylvanica trees growing along the central Assiniboine river floodplain, southcentral Canada - Tardif, Jacques C.; Conciatori, France; Smith, David L. (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2023)

Floods and water quality in Canada: A review of the interactions with urbanization, agriculture and forestry. - St-Hilaire, André; Duchesne, Sophie; Rousseau, Alain N. (2016)
Water quality remains a major issue in Canada. This paper reviews recent research on the impacts of urbanization, agriculture and forestry on water quality in Canada. Specific water quality issues such as mining, sewage treatment and waste treatment are not included in this paper. For each land use, a brief summary of the dominant processes linking runoff to water quality is provided and recent findings are summarized. With respect to urbanized watersheds, the relatively large proportion of impervious areas, lower vegetation cover and the presence of high-density drainage systems alter surface water routing and timing of peak flows. High concentrations of heavy metals are considered to be the most important water quality problem in urban runoff, but nutrients, pathogens, concentration of pharmaceuticals and water temperature also often contribute. In watersheds dominated by agricultural activities, overland flow is an important vector of pollutants, but subsurface flow such as macropore and tile-drain flo...
Keywords: Rousseau_Alain

Identification of flood seasonality and drivers across Canada - Singh, Jitendra; Ghosh, Subimal; Simonovic, Slobodan P.; Karmakar, Subhankar (Hydrological Processes, 2021)
Abstract Floods are the most frequently occurring natural hazard in Canada. An in‐depth understanding of flood seasonality and its drivers at a national scale is essential. Here, a circular, statistics‐based approach is implemented to understand the seasonality of annual‐maximum floods (streamflow) and to identify their responsible drivers across Canada. Nearly 80% and 70% of flood events were found to occur during spring and summer in eastern and western watersheds across Canada, respectively. Flooding in the eastern and western watersheds was primarily driven by snowmelt and extreme precipitation, respectively. This observation suggests that increases in temperature have led to early spring snowmelt‐induced floods throughout eastern Canada. Our results indicate that precipitation (snowmelt) variability can exert large controls on the magnitude of flood peaks in western (eastern) watersheds in Canada. Further, the nonstationarity of flood peaks is modelled to account for impact of the dynamic behaviour of the identified flood drivers on extreme‐flood magnitude by using a cluster of 74 generalized additive models for location scale and shape models, which can capture both the linear and nonlinear characteristics of flood‐peak changes and can model its dependence on external covariates. Using nonstationary frequency analysis, we find that increasing precipitation and snowmelt magnitudes directly resulted in a significant increase in 50‐year streamflow. Our results highlight an east–west asymmetry in flood seasonality, indicating the existence of a climate signal in flood observations. The understating of flood seasonality and flood responses under the dynamic characteristics of precipitation and snowmelt extremes may facilitate the predictability of such events, which can aid in predicting and managing their impacts.

Assessment of non-stationary IDF curves under a changing climate: Case study of different climatic zones in Canada - Silva, Daniele Feitoza; Simonovic, Slobodan P.; Schardong, Andre; Joel Avruch Goldenfum; Goldenfum, Joel Avruch (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2021)
Abstract Study region Canada. Study focus Given the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation, updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationships have been adopted across Canada. Since the IDFs’ generation is based on the assumption of stationarity, the rainfall statistics information may be unreliable. Recent research is attempting to develop a new methodology to integrate non-stationarity and climate change into IDFs updating process. Up to now, there is no comprehensive evaluation of the IDFs updating procedure at different locations. In this study, we analyzed the combined effect of non-stationarity and climate change on future IDFs at six selected gauging stations across Canada. New hydrological insights for the region A comparison of the updated future IDFs with historical IDFs indicates an intensification of extreme events for all study areas, increasing hazard to them. Sites located in the Northeast coastal region will be the most affected in the future by the extreme precipitation. In addition, there is a clear indication that rare events (100-year return period) will become more frequent (in some cases increase up to 443 % of the water infrastructure risk of failure has been observed). We argue that the above findings (i) offer a new overview of future extreme precipitation across Canada, and (ii) should be considered by the stakeholders with respect to climate change adaptation decisions.

Managing residual flood risk behind levees: Comparing USA , France, and Quebec (Canada) - Serra‐Llobet, Anna; Tourment, Rémy; Montané, Antonin; Buffin‐Belanger, Thomas (Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2022)
Abstract Although hydraulic infrastructure such as levees remain important for flood risk management in the USA, France, and Quebec (Canada), there is increasing emphasis on nonstructural measures, such as regulatory flood maps, to reduce exposure and vulnerability, for example, preventing people from building in high hazard areas. One key concept related to areas protected by levees is that of “residual risk”, that is, the risk from floods greater than the design standard of the levees (levee overtopping) and from levee breach. In this article, we review the legislative framework for regulatory flood maps in the USA, France, and Quebec (Canada) and compare how residual risk behind protective structures is taken into account (or not) in regulatory flood maps. We find big differences in how the USA, France and Canada manage residual risk behind the levees. While in France the area behind levees is part of the regulatory flood prone area, and land use restrictions, building codes, emergency measures and risk communication are mandatory, in the USA the area behind levees is only shown as part of the regulatory flood prone area if the levee is not accredited. In Quebec, regulatory flood maps in general follow the French approach with a few exceptions.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2022

Dendrohydrology in Canada’s western interior and applications to water resource management - Sauchyn, David J.; Vanstone, Jessica; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Sauchyn, Robert (Journal of Hydrology, 2015)
Summary Across the southern Canadian Prairies, annual precipitation is relatively low (200–400mm) and periodic water deficits limit economic and environmental productivity. Rapid population growth, economic development and climate change have exposed this region to increasing vulnerability to hydrologic drought. There is high demand for surface water, streamflow from the Rocky Mountains in particular. This paper describes the application of dendrohydrology to water resource management in this region. Four projects were initiated by the sponsoring organizations: a private utility, an urban municipality and two federal government agencies. The fact that government and industry would initiate and fund tree-ring research indicates that practitioners recognize paleohydrology as a legitimate source of technical support for water resource planning and management. The major advantage of tree-rings as a proxy of annual and seasonal streamflow is that the reconstructions exceed the length of gauge records by at least several centuries. The extent of our network of 180 tree-ring chronologies, spanning AD 549–2013 and ∼20° of latitude, with a high density of sites in the headwaters of the major river basins, enables us to construct large ensembles of tree-ring reconstructions as a means of expressing uncertainty in the inference of streamflow from tree rings. We characterize paleo-droughts in terms of modern analogues, translating the tree-ring reconstructions from a paleo-time scale to the time frame in which engineers and planners operate. Water resource managers and policy analysts have used our paleo-drought scenarios in their various forms to inform and assist drought preparedness planning, a re-evaluation of surface water apportionment policy and an assessment of the reliability of urban water supply systems.

Advancing Spatial Drought Forecasts by Integrating an Improved Outlier Robust Extreme Learning Machine with Gridded Data: A Case Study of the Lower Mainland Basin, British Columbia, Canada - Salimi, Amirhossein; Noori, Amir; Ebtehaj, Isa; Ghobrial, Tadros; Bonakdari, Hossein (Sustainability, 2024)
Droughts have extensive consequences, affecting the natural environment, water quality, public health, and exacerbating economic losses. Precise drought forecasting is essential for promoting sustainable development and mitigating risks, especially given the frequent drought occurrences in recent decades. This study introduces the Improved Outlier Robust Extreme Learning Machine (IORELM) for forecasting drought using the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). For this purpose, four observation stations across British Columbia, Canada, were selected. Precipitation and soil moisture data with one up to six lags are utilized as inputs, resulting in 12 variables for the model. An exhaustive analysis of all potential input combinations is conducted using IORELM to identify the best one. The study outcomes emphasize the importance of incorporating precipitation and soil moisture data for accurate drought prediction. IORELM shows promising results in drought classification, and the best input combination was found for each station based on its results. While high Area Under Curve (AUC) values across stations, a Precision/Recall trade-off indicates variable prediction tendencies. Moreover, the F1-score is moderate, meaning the balance between Precision, Recall, and Classification Accuracy (CA) is notably high at specific stations. The results show that stations near the ocean, like Pitt Meadows, have higher predictability up to 10% in AUC and CA compared to inland stations, such as Langley, which exhibit lower values. These highlight geographic influence on model performance.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Mai_2024

Potential impact of climate change on the risk of windthrow in eastern Canada’s forests - Saad, Christian; Boulanger, Yan; Beaudet, Marilou; Gachon, Philippe; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Gauthier, Sylvie (Climatic Change, 2017)
Climate change is likely to affect windthrow risks at northern latitudes by potentially changing high wind probabilities and soil frost duration. Here, we evaluated the effect of climate change on windthrow risk in eastern Canada’s balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.) forests using a methodology that accounted for changes in both wind speed and soil frost duration. We used wind speed and soil temperature projections at the regional scale from the CRCM5 regional climate model (RCM) driven by the CanESM2 global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), for a baseline (1976–2005) and two future periods (2041–2070, 2071–2100). A hybrid mechanistic model (ForestGALES) that considers species resistance to uprooting and wind speed distribution was used to calculate windthrow risk. An increased risk of windthrow (3 to 30%) was predicted for the future mainly due to an increased duration of unfrozen soil conditions (by up to 2 to 3 months by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5). In contrast, wind speed did not vary markedly with a changing climate. Strong regional variations in wind speeds translated into regional differences in windthrow risk, with the easternmost region (Atlantic provinces) having the strongest winds and the highest windthrow risk. Because of the inherent uncertainties associated with climate change projections, especially regarding wind climate, further research is required to assess windthrow risk from the optimum combination of RCM/GCM ensemble simulations.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

A nested multivariate copula approach to hydrometeorological simulations of spring floods: the case of the Richelieu River (Québec, Canada) record flood - Saad, Christian; El Adlouni, Salaheddine; St-Hilaire, André; Gachon, Philippe (Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2015)
Floods have potentially devastating consequences on populations, industries and environmental systems. They often result from a combination of effects from meteorological, physiographic and anthropogenic natures. The analysis of flood hazards under a multivariate perspective is primordial to evaluate several of the combined factors. This study analyzes spring flood-causing mechanisms in terms of the occurrence, frequency, duration and intensity of precipitation as well as temperature events and their combinations previous to and during floods using frequency analysis as well as a proposed multivariate copula approach along with hydrometeorological indices. This research was initiated over the Richelieu River watershed (Quebec, Canada), with a particular emphasis on the 2011 spring flood, constituting one of the most damaging events over the last century for this region. Although some work has already been conducted to determine certain causes of this record flood, the use of multivariate statistical analysis of hydrologic and meteorological events has not yet been explored. This study proposes a multivariate flood risk model based on fully nested Archimedean Frank and Clayton copulas in a hydrometeorological context. Several combinations of the 2011 Richelieu River flood-causing meteorological factors are determined by estimating joint and conditional return periods with the application of the proposed model in a trivariate case. The effects of the frequency of daily frost/thaw episodes in winter, the cumulative total precipitation fallen between the months of November and March and the 90th percentile of rainfall in spring on peak flow and flood duration are quantified, as these combined factors represent relevant drivers of this 2011 Richelieu River record flood. Multiple plausible and physically founded flood-causing scenarios are also analyzed to quantify various risks of inundation.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Sensitivity of seasonal precipitation extremes to model configuration of the Canadian Regional Climate Model over eastern Canada using historical simulations - Roy, Philippe; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René (Climate Dynamics, 2014)
This study analyzes the uncertainty of seasonal (winter and summer) precipitation extremes as simulated by a recent version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) using 16 simulations (1961–1990), considering four sources of uncertainty from: (a) the domain size, (b) the driving Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM), (c) the ensemble member for a given AOGCM and (d) the internal variability of the CRCM. These 16 simulations are driven by 2 AOGCMs (i.e. CGCM3, members 4 and 5, and ECHAM5, members 1 and 2), and one set of re-analysis products (i.e. ERA40), using two domain sizes (AMNO, covering all North America and QC, a smaller domain centred over the Province of Québec). In addition to the mean seasonal precipitation, three seasonal indices are used to characterize different types of variability and extremes of precipitation: the number of wet days, the maximum number of consecutive dry days, and the 95th percentile of daily precipitation. Results show that largest source of uncertainty in summer comes from the AOGCM selection and the choice of domain size, followed by the choice of the member for a given AOGCM. In winter, the choice of the member becomes more important than the choice of the domain size. Simulated variance sensitivity is greater in winter than in summer, highlighting the importance of the large-scale circulation from the boundary conditions. The study confirms a higher uncertainty in the simulated heavy rainfall than the one in the mean precipitation, with some regions along the Great Lakes—St-Lawrence Valley exhibiting a systematic higher uncertainty value.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

A 600‐year marine record associated with the dynamics of the eastern Penny Ice Cap (Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada) - Rodríguez‐Cuicas, María‐Emilia; Montero‐Serrano, Jean‐Carlos; St‐Onge, Guillaume; Normandeau, Alexandre (Journal of Quaternary Science, 2023)
ABSTRACT Two composite sedimentary sequences sampled in the ice‐proximal (12CS) and ice‐distal (02CS) areas of Coronation Fjord (Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada) were investigated in order to reconstruct the effect of climate variability on 600 years of changes in sediment transfer from the eastern Penny Ice Cap (PIC). Detrital proxies, and physical and sedimentological analyses revealed that glacial meltwater discharges led to frequent rapidly deposited layers (RDLs) in ice‐proximal settings. RDLs in ice‐distal settings involved the sudden release of a large quantity of sediment‐laden water during floods probably originating from adjacent fjords with large sandur deltas. Laminated sediments with ice‐rafted debris throughout the Little Ice Age interval in the ice‐proximal environment suggest that colder conditions promoted glacier growth, leading to successive episodes of turbid hyperpycnal meltwater plumes and iceberg calving in Coronation Fjord. Since 1850 ce , the accelerated Coronation retreat in response to modern warming has led to increased sedimentation rates, abrupt mineralogical and grain size proxy variations and more frequent RDLs. Similar trends between the detrital proxies of the ice‐proximal core and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation record and Arctic surface air temperature suggest high connectivity between atmospheric and sea surface temperature variations and PIC dynamics over the last 600 years.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Juin_2023

Influence of local versus national datasets on seismic loss estimates: A case study for residential buildings in the metropolitan area of Montreal, Canada - Rosset, Philippe; Zhu, Huanru; Chouinard, Luc; Sirous, Navid; Rimando, Jeremy; Peace, Alexander; Goda, Katsuichiro (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2024)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Mai_2024

Development of tree recruitment models for 10 species groups in the sugar maple-dominated mixed forests of eastern Canada - Rijal, Baburam; Power, Hugues; Auger, Isabelle; Guillemette, François; Bédard, Steve; Schneider, Robert (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2023)
Individual tree recruitment is an important element needed to understand stand dynamics, as it influences both stand composition and productivity. Forest growth simulators usually include recruitment models. The quality of recruitment predictions can have long-term impacts on estimations of forest growth, ecosystem health and the commercial utility of managed forests. The main objective of this study was to develop a recruitment model for commercial-size trees (i.e., trees with a diameter at breast height > 9 cm) of 10 species groups using different dendrometric and environmental variables. The resulting model will be included in a growth simulator used to support forest management planning. We hypothesized that accounting for sapling density as a covariate would improve the recruitment model's predictive performance. Using empirical data from periodically measured permanent sample plots (1982–2019) located throughout the managed mixed hardwood forests of Quebec, we constructed models with and without sapling-related covariates and compared them on the basis of cross-validation model performance statistics. Our results show that including sapling density significantly improved model performance. From this, we conclude that adding sapling density as a covariate can significantly improve a recruitment model's predictive power for eastern mixed hardwood forests.
Keywords: Guillemette_Francois

Climatological context of the mid-November 2021 floods in the province of British Columbia, Canada - Richards-Thomas, Tamar S.; Déry, Stephen J.; Stewart, Ronald E.; Thériault, Julie M. (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Septembre_2024

Exploring frequency analysis alternatives on instantaneous peak flow, in the context of flood plain delineation in southern Québec, Canada - Ricard, Simon; Parent, Annie-Claude; Bédard-Therrien, Alexis; Morse, Brian; Anctil, François (Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2022)
A flood frequency analysis is conducted using instantaneous peak flow data over a hydrologic sub-region of southern Québec following three distinct methodological frameworks. First, the analysis is conducted locally using available instantaneous peak flow data. Second, the analysis is conducted locally using daily peak flow data processed to consider the peak flow effect. Third, a regional frequency analysis is conducted pooling all available instantaneous peak flow data over the study area. Results reveal a notable diversity in the resulting recurrence peak flow estimates and related uncertainties from one analysis to another. Expert judgement appears essential to arbitrate which alternative should be operated considering a specific context of application for flood plain delineation. Pros and cons for each approach are discussed. We finally encourage the use of a diversity of approaches to provide a robust assessment of uncertainty affecting peak flow estimates.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Juillet_2022; Site_internet_RIISQ

Coupling a peatland hydrological model with a snowmelt module in order to model the snowmelt runoff in a boreal ombrotrophic peatland in eastern Québec (Canada) - Riahi, Khawla; St-Hilaire, André; Bourgault, Marc-André; Taillardat, Pierre; Prijac, Antonin; Garneau, Michelle (Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2024)
Peatlands are relatively common in the province of Quebec (Canada) where they occupy about 12% of the surface. The hydrology of peatlands remains insufficiently documented, more specifically during the spring period where data are currently lacking in many regions, including in the Quebec boreal territory. The paucity of spring data are due to snowmelt that causes flooding in peatlands and along rivers, which makes hydrometry complicated during this period of the year. In this paper, the Peatland Hydrological Impact Model (PHIM) was coupled with a snowmelt module (CemaNeige) to simulate spring flows in an ombrotrophic peatland located in the Romaine River watershed (Quebec). Discharge data from two summer seasons (2019 and 2020) were used to calibrate the hydrological model. Despite the relatively short time series, the results show a good performance. The simulated spring flows resulting from the PHIM + CemaNeige combination are of the right order of magnitude.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Fevrier_2025

The role of place meanings in opposition to water-related infrastructure projects: the case of the Mactaquac Dam, New Brunswick, Canada - Reilly, Kate H.; Adamowski, Jan F.; John, Kimberly (Ecology and Society, 2019)

Participatory mapping of ecosystem services to understand stakeholders’ perceptions of the future of the Mactaquac Dam, Canada - Reilly, Kate; Adamowski, Jan; John, Kimberly (Ecosystem Services, 2018)

Field monitoring of river ice processes in the vicinity of ice control structures in the province of Quebec, Canada - Pourshahbaz, Hanif; Ghobrial, Tadros; Shakibaeinia, Ahmad (Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2023)
Over the past decades, a variety of ice control structures (ICSs) have been designed and built, but to date, there has been no systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of these structures. To achieve this objective, first an understanding of the interaction between different ice processes and the ICSs must be established. For this purpose, a total of four ICSs located in the province of Québec were monitored during the 2021–2022 winter. The results showed that the ice jam holding time could vary from 1.5 to 68.5 h. The release of the jam was mechanically driven when the ratio of release to initiation Froude number was higher than one and was thermally driven when this ratio was lower than one, and the water temperature increased between initiation and release. Also, as the ratio of the total pier spacing to upstream river width increased, the holding time decreased.
Keywords: Ahmad_Shakibaeinia; Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2023

Supply and Transport Limitations on Phosphorus Losses from Agricultural Fields in the Lower Great Lakes Region, Canada - Plach, Janina M.; Macrae, Merrin L.; Ali, Genevieve A.; Brunke, Richard R.; English, Michael C.; Ferguson, Gabrielle; Lam, W. Vito; Lozier, Tatianna M.; McKague, Kevin; O'Halloran, Ivan P.; Opolko, Gilian; Van Esbroeck, Christopher J. (Journal of Environmental Quality, 2018)
Phosphorus (P) mobilization in agricultural landscapes is regulated by both hydrologic (transport) and biogeochemical (supply) processes interacting within soils; however, the dominance of these controls can vary spatially and temporally. In this study, we analyzed a 5‐yr dataset of stormflow events across nine agricultural fields in the lower Great Lakes region of Ontario, Canada, to determine if edge‐of‐field surface runoff and tile drainage losses (total and dissolved reactive P) were limited by transport mechanisms or P supply. Field sites ranged from clay loam, silt loam, to sandy loam textures. Findings indicate that biogeochemical processes (P supply) were more important for tile drain P loading patterns (i.e., variable flow‐weighted mean concentrations ([ C f ]) across a range of flow regimes) relative to surface runoff, which trended toward a more chemostatic or transport‐limited response. At two sites with the same soil texture, higher tile [ C f ] and greater transport limitations were apparent at the site with higher soil available P (STP); however, STP did not significantly correlate with tile [ C f ] or P loading patterns across the nine sites. This may reflect that the fields were all within a narrow STP range and were not elevated in STP concentrations (Olsen‐P, ≤25 mg kg −1 ). For the study sites where STP was maintained at reasonable concentrations, hydrology was less of a driving factor for tile P loadings, and thus management strategies that limit P supply may be an effective way to reduce P losses from fields (e.g., timing of fertilizer application). Core Ideas We used metrics to evaluate controls on edge‐of‐field phosphorus losses. We examined a 5‐yr database of stormflow events (all seasons, including winter). Tile P runoff trended toward being more supply limited than surface runoff.

An ecological perspective on floods in Canada - Peters, Daniel L.; Caissie, Daniel; Monk, Wendy A.; Rood, Stewart B.; St-Hilaire, André (2016)
This review presents a summary of the influences of floods on river ecology, both instream and on the adjacent floodplain, mostly in a Canadian context. It emphasizes that ecological impacts and benefits can be highly dependent on flood-generation processes and their magnitude and timing. In Canada, floods can occur under open-water or ice-influenced river conditions. The ecological impacts of floods generated from ice jamming are particularly relevant in Canadian ecosystems due to the potentially higher water levels produced and suspended sediment concentrations that can be detrimental to instream aquatic habitat, but beneficial to floodplains. Large floods provide a major source of physical disturbance. Moderate floods with shorter return periods can be beneficial to aquatic habitats by providing woody debris that contributes to habitat complexity and diversity, by flushing fine sediments and by providing important food sources from terrestrial origins. Floods also influence water-quality variables such...

Hydrothermal impacts of water release on early life stages of white sturgeon in the Nechako river, B.C. Canada - Oyinlola, Muhammed A.; Khorsandi, Mostafa; Penman, Rachael; Earhart, Madison L.; Arsenault, Richard; Brauner, Colin J.; St-Hilaire, Andre (Journal of Thermal Biology, 2023)

Short-duration precipitation extremes over Canada in a warmer climate - Oh, Seok-Geun; Sushama, Laxmi (Climate Dynamics, 2020)
Short-duration precipitation extremes are widely used in the design of engineering infrastructure systems and they also lead to high impact flash flood events and landslides. Better understanding of these events in a changing climate is therefore critical. This study assesses characteristics of short-duration precipitation extremes of 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-h durations in terms of the precipitation-temperature (P–T) relationship in current and future climates for ten Canadian climatic regions using the limited area version of the global environment multiscale (GEM) model. The GEM simulations, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis and two coupled global climate models (CanESM2 and MPI-ESM), reproduce the general observed regional P–T relationship characteristics in current climate (1981–2010), such as sub-CC (Clausius–Clapeyron) and CC scalings for the coastal and northern, and inland regions, respectively, albeit with some underestimation. Analysis of the transient climate change simulations suggests important shifts and/or extensions of the P–T curve to higher temperature bins in future climate (2071–2100) for RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, particularly for 1-h duration. Analysis of the spatial patterns of dew point depression (temperature minus dew point temperature) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) corresponding to short-duration precipitation extremes for different temperature bins show their changing relative importance from low to high temperature bins. For the low-temperature bins, short-duration precipitation extremes are largely due to high relative humidity, while for high-temperature bins, strong convection due to atmospheric instability brought by surface warming is largely responsible. The analysis thus addresses some of the key knowledge gaps related to the behavior of P–T relationship and associated mechanisms for the Canadian regions.

A 247‐year tree‐ring reconstruction of spring temperature and relation to spring flooding in eastern boreal Canada - Nolin, Alexandre Florent; Girardin, Martin Philippe; Tardif, Jacques Clément; Guo, Xiao Jing; Conciatori, France; Bergeron, Yves (International Journal of Climatology, 2022)
Abstract Few records of spring paleoclimate are available for boreal Canada, as biological proxies recording the beginning of the warm season are uncommon. Given the spring warming observed during the last decades, and its impact on snowmelt and hydrological processes, searching for spring climate proxies is receiving increasing attention. Tree‐ring anatomical features and intra‐annual widths were used to reconstruct the regional March to May mean air temperature from 1770 to 2016 in eastern boreal Canada. Nested principal component regressions calibrated on 116 years of gridded temperature data were developed from one Fraxinus nigra and 10 Pinus banksiana sites. The reconstruction indicated three distinct phases in spring temperature variability since 1770. Ample phases of multi‐decadal warm and cold springs persisted until the end of the Little Ice Age (1850–1870 CE) and were gradually replaced since the 1940s by decadal to interannual variability associated with an increase in the frequency and magnitude of warm springs. Significant correlations with other paleotemperature records, gridded snow cover extent and runoff support that historical high flooding were associated with late, cold springs with heavy snow cover. Most of the high magnitude spring floods reconstructed for the nearby Harricana River also coincided with the lowest reconstructed spring temperature per decade. However, the last 40 years of observed and reconstructed mean spring temperature showed a reduction in the number of extreme cold springs contrasting with the last few decades of extreme flooding in the eastern Canadian boreal region. This result indicates that warmer late spring mean temperatures on average may contribute, among other factors, to advance the spring break‐up and to likely shift the contribution of snow to rain in spring flooding processes.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2022

Spatial coherency of the spring flood signal among major river basins of eastern boreal Canada inferred from flood rings - Nolin, A.F.; Tardif, J.C.; Conciatori, F.; Bergeron, Y. (Journal of Hydrology, 2021)
Keywords: Site_internet_RIISQ

Multi-century tree-ring anatomical evidence reveals increasing frequency and magnitude of spring discharge and floods in eastern boreal Canada - Nolin, Alexandre Florent; Tardif, Jacques Clément; Conciatori, France; Kames, Susanne; Meko, David M.; Bergeron, Yves (Global and Planetary Change, 2021)
Keywords: Site_internet_RIISQ

Flood-Rings Production Modulated by River Regulation in Eastern Boreal Canada - Nolin, Alexandre F.; Tardif, Jacques C.; Conciatori, France; Bergeron, Yves (Frontiers in Plant Science, 2021)
In northeastern boreal Canada, the long-term perspective on spring flooding is hampered by the absence of long gage records. Changes in the tree-ring anatomy of periodically flooded trees have allowed the reconstruction of historical floods in unregulated hydrological systems. In regulated rivers, the study of flood rings could recover past flood history, assuming that the effects of hydrological regulation on their production can be understood. This study analyzes the effect of regulation on the flood-ring occurrence (visual intensity and relative frequency) and on ring widths in Fraxinus nigra trees growing at five sites distributed along the Driftwood River floodplain. Driftwood River was regulated by a dam in 1917 that was replaced at the same location in 1953. Ring width revealed little, to no evidence, of the impact of river regulation, in contrast to the flood rings. Prior to 1917, high relative frequencies of well-defined flood rings were recorded during known flood years, as indicated by significant correlations with reconstructed spring discharge of the nearby Harricana River. After the construction and the replacement of the dam, relative frequencies of flood rings and their intensities gradually decreased. Flood-ring relative frequencies after 1917, and particularly after 1953, were mostly composed of weakly defined (less distinct) flood rings with some corresponding to known flood years and others likely reflecting dam management. The strength of the correlations with the instrumental Harricana River discharge also gradually decrease starting after 1917. Compared with upper floodplain trees, shoreline trees at each site recorded flood rings less frequently following the construction of the first but especially of the second dam, indicating that water level regulation limited flooding in the floodplains. Compared with the downstream site to the dam, the upstream ones recorded significantly more flood rings in the postdam period, reemphasizing the importance of considering the position of the site along with the river continuum and site conditions in relation to flood exposure. The results demonstrated that sampling trees in multiple riparian stands and along with various hydrological contexts at a far distance of the dams could help disentangle the flooding signal from the dam management signal.
Keywords: Site_internet_RIISQ

Pinus banksiana and Fraxinus nigra dataset for the study of spring temperature in eastern boreal Canada - Nolin, Alexandre; Girardin, Martin Philippe; Tardif, Jacques Clément; Guo, Xiao Jing; Conciatori, France; Bergeron, Yves (2021)
Data include tree-ring widths and wood anatomical chronologies of Pinus banksiana and Fraxinus nigra trees growing in eastern boreal Canada, as well as the reconstructed spring mean temperature, reported in "A 247-years tree-ring reconstruction of spring temperature and relation to spring flooding in eastern boreal Canada" published in "International journal of Climatology" by Nolin et al., 2021. PIBA_FRNI_Chronos.csv, the tree-ring widths and wood anatomical chronologies (1706-2017) used in this study (species and sites are coded as in Table 1); PIBA_FRNI_SampDepth.csv, the annual replication of samples used to produce each chronologies (1706-2017); PIBA_FRNI_RecSpringTemp.csv, the reconstructed mean spring temperature (1770 to 2016) LAT_LON_SpringTemp.kml, the coordinate data for each sampling site: metadatas.txt, a set of self-explanatory instructions and descriptions for data files. All other data are available upon request to the corresponding author at alexandreflorent.nolin@uqat.ca (institutional email), alexandreflorent.nolin@gmail.com (permanent email).

Fraxinus nigra tree-ring dataset for flood history study among major river basins near the Lake Duparquet, eastern boreal Canada. - Nolin, Alexandre; Tardif, Jacques C.; Conciatori, France; Bergeron, Yves (2021)
Data include flood ring (F1, F2) and earlywood vessel chronologies (MVA, N) derived from black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) trees growing in eastern boreal Canada near Lake Duparquet (Quebec) reported in "Spatial coherence of the spring flood signal among major river basins of eastern boreal Canada inferred from flood rings" published in "Journal of Hydrology" by Nolin et al. in 2021. F1_F2_chrono.csv, as in Figure 3, the F1 and F2 flood-ring chronologies per sites (sites are coded as in Table 1) with sample replication (n); LAT_LON.kml, the coordinate data for each site and sampled tree; MVA_N_chrono.csv, as in Figure 5, the MVA and N chronologies per river basins (river basins are coded as in Table 1); REC1.csv, the reconstruction of the Harricana River spring discharge from 1771 to 2016 reported in "Multi-century tree-ring anatomical evidence reveals increasing frequency and magnitude of spring discharge and floods in eastern boreal Canada" published in "Global and Planetary Change" by Nolin et al. 2021. metadatas.txt, a set of self-explanatory instructions and descriptions for data files. All other data are available upon request to the corresponding author at alexandreflorent.nolin@uqat.ca (institutional email), alexandreflorent.nolin@gmail.com (permanent email).

Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada - Nolin, A.F.; Girardin, M.P.; Adamowski, J.F.; Barzegar, R.; Boucher, M.-A.; Tardif, J.C.; Bergeron, Y. (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2023)

Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change - Ng, Victoria; Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A.; Ogden, Nicholas H. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Flood frequency analysis at ungauged catchments with the GAM and MARS approaches in the Montreal region, Canada - Msilini, Amina; Charron, Christian; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Masselot, Pierre (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2022)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2022; Site_internet_RIISQ

Detection of trends in flood magnitude and frequency in Canada - Mostofi Zadeh, Shabnam; Burn, Donald H.; O’Brien, Nicole (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2020)

Climate and water availability indicators in Canada: Challenges and a way forward. Part II – Historic trends - Mortsch, Linda; Cohen, Stewart J.; Koshida, Grace (2015)
Climate variability is recognized as an important influence on the availability of water throughout Canada, and projected climate change is anticipated to alter the amount, timing and distribution of water. This is Part II of a three-part (Parts I and III, this issue) analysis of water availability in Canada. Part II surveys current research, primarily Canadian in origin, on historical trends in climate and hydrologic indicators relevant to assessing water availability. Information on hydro-climate trends is not evenly distributed across Canada. Hydrologic trend research focuses on the North, British Columbia and the Prairies (Saskatchewan) with some research in Quebec, very little in Ontario and minimal analysis for Atlantic Canada. Overall, there is less research on trends in climatological indicators (drought, evapotranspiration, soil moisture); generally, the focus is on the Prairies. Hydrologic trends from basin-scale case studies are reported but inter-comparison is constrained by different periods ...

The spatial variability of ice-jam bank morphologies along the Mistassini River (Quebec, Canada): an indicator of the ice-jam regime? - Morin, Stephanie; Boucher, Etienne; Buffin-Belanger, Thomas (Natural Hazards, 2015)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models - Mohanty, Mohit Prakash; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Science of The Total Environment, 2021)
Abstract With the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), water experts and flood modellers are curious to explore the efficacy of the new and upgraded climate models in representing flood inundation dynamics and how they will be impacted in the future by climate change. In this study, for the first time, we consider the latest group of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 to examine the probable changes in floodplain regimes over Canada. A set of 17 GCMs from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 4.5 (medium forcing) and 8.5 (high end forcing) common to historical (1980 to 2019), near-future (2021 to 2060), and far-future (2061 to 2100) time-periods are selected. A comprehensive framework consisting of hydrodynamic flood modelling, and statistical experiments are put forward to derive high-resolution Canada-wide floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The changes in floodplain regimes for the future periods are analyzed over drainage basin scale in terms of (i) changes in flood inundation extents, (ii) changes in flood hazards (high and very-high classes), and (iii) changes in flood frequency. Our results show a significant rise (>30%) in flood inundation extents in the future periods; particularly intense over western and eastern regions. The flood hazards are expected to cover ~16% more geographical area of Canada. We also find that large areas in northern and western Canada and a few spots in the eastern parts of Canada will be getting flooded more frequently compared to the historical period. The observations derived from this study are vital for enhancing flood preparedness, optimal land-use planning, and refurbishing both structural and non-structural flood control options for improved resilience. The study instills new knowledge on revamping the existing flood management approaches and adaptation strategies for future protection.

A Comprehensive Approach for Floodplain Mapping Through Identification of Hazard Using Publicly Available Data Sets Over Canada - Mohanty, M.P.P; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (2022)
Flood events and their associated damages have escalated significantly in the last few decades. To add to the gruesome situation, many reports and studies warn that flood risk would aggravate significantly in future periods due to significant alterations in the climate patterns and socio-economic dynamics. Floodplain mapping is looked upon as a viable option to tackle this global issue as it provides both quantitative and qualitative information on flood dynamics. Moreover, with the increasing availability of global data and enhancement in computational simulations, it has become easier to simlate flooding patterns at large scales. This study deter-mines the usability of publicly available datasets in capturing flood hazards over Canada. Run-off data set from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), along with a few other rele-vant inputs are fed to CaMa-Flood, a robust global hydrodynamic model to generate flooding patterns for 1 in 100 and 1 in 200-yr return period events over Canada . The simulated maps are compared and validated with the existing maps of a few flood-prone regions in Canada, thereby establishing their performance over both regional and country-scale. Later, the simulated flood-plain maps are used in conjunction with property related information at 34 cities (within the top 100 populous cities in Canada) to determine the degree of exposure due to flooding in 1991, 2001, and 2011. The results indicate that around 80 percent of inundated spots belong to high and very-high hazard classes in a 200-yr event, which is roughly 4 percent more than simulated for 100-yr event. NARR derived floodplain maps perform very well while compared over the six flood-prone regions. While analyzing the exposure of properties to flooding, we notice an in-crease in the number during the last three decades, with the maximum rise observed in Toronto, followed by Montreal, and Edmonton. To disseminate the extensive flood-related information, a web-based public tool, Flood Map Viewer (http://www.floodmapviewer.com/) is developed. The development of the tool was motivated by the commitment of the Canadian government to provide $63 M over the next three years for the completion of flood maps for higher-risk areas. The study reaches out to demonstrate how publicly available datasets can be utilized with a lesser degree of uncertainty in representing flooding patterns over large regions. The flood re-lated information derived from the study can be used along with vulnerability for quantifying flood risk, which will help in developing appropriate pathways for resilience building for long-term sustainable benefits.

Drivers of rare earth elements (REEs) and radionuclides in changing subarctic (Nunavik, Canada) surface waters near a mining project - Marginson, H.; MacMillan, G.A.; Wauthy, M.; Sicaud, E.; Gérin-Lajoie, J.; Dedieu, J.-P.; Amyot, M. (Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2024)

Will Evolving Climate Conditions Increase the Risk of Floods of the Large U.S.‐Canada Transboundary Richelieu River Basin? - Lucas‐Picher, Philippe; Lachance‐Cloutier, Simon; Arsenault, Richard; Poulin, Annie; Ricard, Simon; Turcotte, Richard; Brissette, François (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2021)
Abstract In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.

Use of beta regression for statistical downscaling of precipitation in the Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada - Mandal, Sohom; Srivastav, Roshan; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Journal of Hydrology, 2016)
Summary Impacts of global climate change on water resources systems are assessed by downscaling coarse scale climate variables into regional scale hydro-climate variables. In this study, a new multisite statistical downscaling method based on beta regression (BR) is developed for generating synthetic precipitation series, which can preserve temporal and spatial dependence along with other historical statistics. The beta regression based downscaling method includes two main steps: (1) prediction of precipitation states for the study area using classification and regression trees, and (2) generation of precipitation at different stations in the study area conditioned on the precipitation states. Daily precipitation data for 53years from the ANUSPLIN data set is used to predict precipitation states of the study area where predictor variables are extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the same interval. The proposed model is applied to downscaling daily precipitation at ten different stations in the Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada. Results show that the proposed downscaling model can capture spatial and temporal variability of local precipitation very well at various locations. The performance of the model is compared with a recently developed non-parametric kernel regression based downscaling model. The BR model performs better regarding extrapolation compared to the non-parametric kernel regression model. Future precipitation changes under different GHG (greenhouse gas) emission scenarios also projected with the developed downscaling model that reveals a significant amount of changes in future seasonal precipitation and number of wet days in the river basin.

Climatic impacts on the runoff generation processes in British Columbia, Canada - Loukas, A.; Vasiliades, L.; Dalezios, N.R. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2002)
Abstract. The potential impact of future climate change on runoff generation processes in two southern British Columbia catchments was explored using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCMa1) to estimate future changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover while the U.B.C. Watershed Model was used to simulate discharges and quantify the separate runoff components, i.e. rainfall, snowmelt, glacier melt and groundwater. Changes, not only in precipitation and temperature but also in the spatial distribution of precipitation with elevation, cloud cover, glacier extension, altitude distribution of vegetation, vegetation biomass production and plant physiology were considered. The future climate of the catchments would be wetter and warmer than the present. In the maritime rain-fed catchment of the Upper Campbell, runoff from rainfall is the most significant source of flow for present and future climatic conditions in the autumn and winter whereas runoff from groundwater generates the flow in spring and summer, especially for the future climate scenario. The total runoff, under the future climatic conditions, would increase in the autumn and winter and decrease in spring and summer. In contrast, in the interior snow-covered Illecillewaet catchment, groundwater is the most significant runoff generation mechanism in the autumn and winter although, at present, significant flow is generated from snowmelt in spring and from glacier runoff in summer. In the future scenario, the contribution to flow from snowmelt would increase in winter and diminish in spring while the runoff from the glacier would remain unchanged; groundwater would then become the most significant source of runoff, which would peak earlier in the season. Keywords: climatic change, hydrological simulation, rainfall, snowmelt, runoff processes
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Flood producing mechanisms identification in southern British Columbia, Canada - Loukas, A; Vasiliades, L; Dalezios, N. R (Journal of Hydrology, 2000)
The causes of peak flows in two climatically different mountainous-forested basins of British Columbia have been identified. The U.B.C. watershed model was used to identify the causes of peak flows, since this model separately calculates the runoff components, i.e. rainfall, snowmelt and glacier runoff. The results showed that the flood flows in the maritime basin of Upper Campbell are mainly generated by rainfall during the fall months and winter rain-on-snow events. Rainfall runoff constitutes the largest percentage of peak flow for all types of events. On the other hand, the flood flows in the inland basin of Illecillewaet are mainly produced by spring rain and snowmelt events, snowmelt events alone and summer events when runoff from the glacier melt contributes to peak discharge. However, snowmelt runoff is the dominant component of peak flows. Based on these findings, flood frequency analysis showed that considering the flow component frequency distributions marginally improves the probability distribution flows in the two examined watersheds.
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Development of a mapping approach encompassing most fluvial processes: Lessons learned from the freedom space for rivers concept in Quebec (Canada) - Massé, Simon; Demers, Sylvio; Besnard, Clément; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas; Biron, Pascale M.; Choné, Guénolé; Massey, William (River Research and Applications, 2020)
Abstract The consensus around the need for a shift in river management approaches to include more natural processes is steadily growing amongst scientists, practitioners, and governmental agencies. The freedom space for rivers concept promotes the delineation of a single space that integrates multiple fluvial dynamics such as floods, lateral migration, channel avulsions, and riparian wetlands connectivity. The objective of this research is to assess the validity of the hydrogeomorphological approach to delineate the freedom space for an extensive sampling of river reaches, covering 167 km, in contrasting watersheds in Quebec (Canada). Comparative analysis was conducted on the relative importance of erosion and flood processes on the freedom space delineation for various fluvial types. Semiautomated tools based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models were also tested on an additional 274 km of watercourses to facilitate freedom space mapping over extensive zones and for highly dynamics environments such as alluvial fans. In the studied reaches, flood and erosion processes occur respectively, on average, in a space equivalent to 2.6 and 20.6 channel widths. In unconfined landscapes, flood processes represent an area up to almost four times the area of erosion processes expected in a 50‐year period. In partly confined and confined environments, erosion processes are more likely to exceed flooding zone, and therefore need to be integrated in the mapping. This study helps better determine the conditions for which the full methodology of freedom space mapping is required or where semiautomated methods can be used. It provides useful guidelines for the implementation of the freedom space approach.
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Potential intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in Western Canada: A comprehensive understanding of precipitation-temperature scaling - Li, Lintao; Li, Zhenhua (Atmospheric Research, 2023)
The convection-permitting climate model (CPCM), WRF-ARW at 4 km resolution, is able to capture the observed relationships between precipitation extremes and temperature (PT scaling) in western Canada. By analyzing the CPCM simulated PT scalings, we found they have robust patterns at different percentiles of precipitation intensity and even between the current and future climate. This is due to the stable annual cycle of the regional climate. The PT scaling pattern is physically governed by the amount of water vapour and the ascending velocity of air. Approximately 95% of the precipitation intensity variation can be explained by the vertical velocity and precipitable water in western Canada. The PT scaling for the current climate does not tell how precipitation extremes would response to a warmer climate. Trend scaling theory was utilized to estimate the intensification of precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. It shows that, in western Canada, the coast is particularly vulnerable to precipitation extremes under global warming. Precipitation extremes are projected to increase at a super Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scale over the coast, approximately at a CC scale over the prairies and mountains, and a sub-CC scale over the northern region. The warming effect on precipitation extremes is even stronger when the concept of”wet-day trend scaling” is introduced.

Precipitation Extremes and Their Links with Regional and Local Temperatures: A Case Study over the Ottawa River Basin, Canada - Llerena, Ana; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René (Atmosphere, 2023)
In the context of global warming, the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship has been widely used as an indicator of the evolution of the precipitation regime, including daily and sub-daily extremes. This study aims to verify the existence of links between precipitation extremes and 2 m air temperature for the Ottawa River Basin (ORB, Canada) over the period 1981–2010, applying an exponential relationship between the 99th percentile of precipitation and temperature characteristics. Three simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5), at three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.11°), one simulation using the recent CRCM version 6 (CRCM6) at “convection-permitting” resolution (2.5 km), and two reanalysis products (ERA5 and ERA5-Land) were used to investigate the CC scaling hypothesis that precipitation increases at the same rate as the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity (i.e., 6.8%/°C). In general, daily precipitation follows a lower rate of change than the CC scaling with median values between 2 and 4%/°C for the ORB and with a level of statistical significance of 5%, while hourly precipitation increases faster with temperature, between 4 and 7%/°C. In the latter case, rates of change greater than the CC scaling were even up to 10.2%/°C for the simulation at 0.11°. A hook shape is observed in summer for CRCM5 simulations, near the 20–25 °C temperature threshold, where the 99th percentile of precipitation decreases with temperature, especially at higher resolution with the CRCM6 data. Beyond the threshold of 20 °C, it appears that the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity is not the only determining factor for generating precipitation extremes. Other factors need to be considered, such as the moisture availability at the time of the precipitation event, and the presence of dynamical mechanisms that increase, for example, upward vertical motion. As mentioned in previous studies, the applicability of the CC scaling should not be generalised in the study of precipitation extremes. The time and spatial scales and season are also dependent factors that must be taken into account. In fact, the evolution of precipitation extremes and temperature relationships should be identified and evaluated with very high spatial resolution simulations, knowing that local temperature and regional physiographic features play a major role in the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes. As precipitation extremes have important effects on the occurrence of floods with potential deleterious damages, further research needs to explore the sensitivity of projections to resolution with various air temperature and humidity thresholds, especially at the sub-daily scale, as these precipitation types seem to increase faster with temperature than with daily-scale values. This will help to develop decision-making and adaptation strategies based on improved physical knowledge or approaches and not on a single assumption based on CC scaling.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe; Infolettre; Infolettre_Ete_2023; Infolettre_Septembre_2023; Site_internet_RIISQ

Impact of the Different Components of 4DVAR on the Global Forecast System of the Meteorological Service of Canada - Laroche, Stéphane; Gauthier, Pierre; Tanguay, Monique; Pellerin, Simon; Morneau, Josée (Monthly Weather Review, 2007)
A four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme has recently been implemented in the medium-range weather forecast system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). The new scheme is now composed of several additional and improved features as compared with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR): the first guess at the appropriate time from the full-resolution model trajectory is used to calculate the misfit to the observations; the tangent linear of the forecast model and its adjoint are employed to propagate the analysis increment and the gradient of the cost function over the 6-h assimilation window; a comprehensive set of simplified physical parameterizations is used during the final minimization process; and the number of frequently reported data, in particular satellite data, has substantially increased. The impact of these 4DVAR components on the forecast skill is reported in this article. This is achieved by comparing data assimilation configurations that range in complexity from the former 3DVAR with the implemented 4DVAR over a 1-month period. It is shown that the implementation of the tangent-linear model and its adjoint as well as the increased number of observations are the two features of the new 4DVAR that contribute the most to the forecast improvement. All the other components provide marginal though positive impact. 4DVAR does not improve the medium-range forecast of tropical storms in general and tends to amplify the existing, too early extratropical transition often observed in the MSC global forecast system with 3DVAR. It is shown that this recurrent problem is, however, more sensitive to the forecast model than the data assimilation scheme employed in this system. Finally, the impact of using a shorter cutoff time for the reception of observations, as the one used in the operational context for the 0000 and 1200 UTC forecasts, is more detrimental with 4DVAR. This result indicates that 4DVAR is more sensitive to observations at the end of the assimilation window than 3DVAR.

Combining streamflow observations and hydrologic simulations for the retrospective estimation of daily streamflow for ungauged rivers in southern Quebec (Canada) - Lachance-Cloutier, Simon; Turcotte, Richard; Cyr, Jean-François (Journal of Hydrology, 2017)
Abstract Retrospective estimation of daily streamflow for all rivers within a territory is of practical interest for sustainable and optimal water management. This implies, however, the availability of methods for providing accurate estimations of flow for ungauged rivers. This study compares the potential of statistical interpolation (SI)—a simple data assimilation technique that combines observations and simulations from hydrological modelling—with four other approaches: nearest neighbour, direct use of outputs from hydrological modelling, ordinary and topological kriging. Through subsampling cross-validation analyses based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency indicator, we show that SI compares favourably with these other approaches. While the performance of other methods depends on the configuration of the ungauged site in regards to the neighbouring reference sites, SI is less affected by these configurations. SI outperforms the other approaches particularly where the ungauged site is relatively distant from observation sites. In these cases, SI performance depends on the performance of the background model that relies on simulations of hydrological processes forced by precipitation and temperature observations. Our findings offer the potential for heightened performance estimates through an improvement of hydrological modelling and the use of more complex assimilation techniques for exploiting the model.

Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system - Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence; Merryfield, William J.; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas; Berg, Aaron A.; Bichet, Adeline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; et al. (The Cryosphere, 2018)
The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.

Climate and water availability indicators in Canada: Challenges and a way forward. Part I – Indicators - Koshida, Grace; Cohen, Stewart J.; Mortsch, Linda (2015)
Climate variability influences the availability of water resources throughout Canada, and projected climate change is anticipated to affect future water availability. This is the first paper of a three-part analysis of water availability indicators in Canada (Parts II and III, this issue). The concept of water availability has been described in different ways in the literature. In Part I, the various approaches for estimating water availability are reviewed and compared, with a focus on Canadian studies. Global examples are used when necessary. The approaches to estimate water availability are organized into three categories: (1) climate-based indicators, (2) hydrology-based indicators and (3) water demand/supply-based indicators. Climate-based indicators use variables such as precipitation, and potential or actual evapotranspiration to calculate water budgets. Widely used meteorological drought indices that calculate moisture surpluses and deficits are also examined. Hydrology-based indicators focus on v...

Contribution of Overland and Tile Flow to Runoff and Nutrient Losses from Vertisols in Manitoba, Canada - Kokulan, Vivekananthan; Macrae, M. L.; Lobb, D. A.; Ali, G. A. (Journal of Environmental Quality, 2019)
This study quantified the contributions of overland and tile flow to total runoff (sum of overland and tile flow) and nutrient losses in a Vertisolic soil in the Red River valley (Manitoba, Canada), a region with a cold climate where tile drainage is rapidly expanding. Most annual runoff occurred as overland flow (72–89%), during spring snowmelt and large spring and summer storms. Tile drains did not flow in early spring due to frozen ground. Although tiles flowed in late spring and summer (33–100% of event flow), this represented a small volume of annual runoff (10–25%), which is in stark contrast with what has been observed in other tile‐drained landscapes. Median daily flow‐weighted mean concentrations of soluble reactive P (SRP) and total P (TP) were significantly greater in overland flow than in tile flow ( p < 0.001), but the reverse pattern was observed for NO 3 –N ( p < 0.001). Overland flow was the primary export pathway for both P and NO 3 –N, accounting for >95% of annual SRP and TP and 50 to 60% of annual NO 3 –N losses. Data suggest that tile drains do not exacerbate P export from Vertisols in the Red River valley because they are decoupled from the surface by soil‐ice during snowmelt, which is the primary time for P loss. However, NO 3 –N loading to downstream water bodies may be exacerbated by tiles, particularly during spring and summer storms after fertilizer application. Core Ideas Overland flow was the primary pathway for runoff and nutrient loss at field edge. Most runoff and nutrient loss occurred during spring snowmelt and rain events. Tile drains are unlikely to exacerbate P losses from Vertisolic soils. Tile drains may enhance N loading in this region.

Mechanisms of spring freshet generation in southern Quebec, Canada - Kinnard, Christophe; Nemri, Saida; Assani, Ali (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2024)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Septembre_2024

Modelling glacier mass balance and climate sensitivity in the context of sparse observations: application to Saskatchewan Glacier, western Canada - Kinnard, Christophe; Larouche, Olivier; Demuth, Michael N.; Menounos, Brian (The Cryosphere, 2022)
Abstract. Glacier mass balance models are needed at sites with scarce long-term observations to reconstruct past glacier mass balance and assess its sensitivity to future climate change. In this study, North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to force a physically based, distributed glacier mass balance model of Saskatchewan Glacier for the historical period 1979–2016 and assess its sensitivity to climate change. A 2-year record (2014–2016) from an on-glacier automatic weather station (AWS) and historical precipitation records from nearby permanent weather stations were used to downscale air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, incoming solar radiation and precipitation from the NARR to the station sites. The model was run with fixed (1979, 2010) and time-varying (dynamic) geometry using a multitemporal digital elevation model dataset. The model showed a good performance against recent (2012–2016) direct glaciological mass balance observations as well as with cumulative geodetic mass balance estimates. The simulated mass balance was not very sensitive to the NARR spatial interpolation method, as long as station data were used for bias correction. The simulated mass balance was however sensitive to the biases in NARR precipitation and air temperature, as well as to the prescribed precipitation lapse rate and ice aerodynamic roughness lengths, showing the importance of constraining these two parameters with ancillary data. The glacier-wide simulated energy balance regime showed a large contribution (57 %) of turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes to melting in summer, higher than typical mid-latitude glaciers in continental climates, which reflects the local humid “icefield weather” of the Columbia Icefield. The static mass balance sensitivity to climate was assessed for prescribed changes in regional mean air temperature between 0 and 7 ∘C and precipitation between −20 % and +20 %, which comprise the spread of ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios for the mid (2041–2070) and late (2071–2100) 21st century. The climate sensitivity experiments showed that future changes in precipitation would have a small impact on glacier mass balance, while the temperature sensitivity increases with warming, from −0.65 to −0.93 m w.e. a−1 ∘C−1. The mass balance response to warming was driven by a positive albedo feedback (44 %), followed by direct atmospheric warming impacts (24 %), a positive air humidity feedback (22 %) and a positive precipitation phase feedback (10 %). Our study underlines the key role of albedo and air humidity in modulating the response of winter-accumulation type mountain glaciers and upland icefield-outlet glacier settings to climate.
Keywords: Kinnard_Christophe

Assessing the Surface Downward Longwave Irradiance Models Using ERA5 Input Data in Canada - Khorsandi, Mostafa; St-Hilaire, Andre; Arsenault, Richard (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2023)
Abstract Longwave radiation (LR) is one of the energy balance components responsible for warming and cooling water during hot summers. Both downward incoming LR, emitted by the atmosphere, and outgoing LR emitted by the land surface are not widely measured. The influence of clouds on the LR heat budget makes it even harder to establish reliable formulations for all-sky conditions. This paper uses air temperature and cloud cover from the ERA5 reanalysis database to compare 20 models for the downward longwave irradiance (DLI) at Earth’s surface and compare them with ERA5’s DLI product. Our work uses long-time continuous DLI measured data at three stations over Canada, and ERA5 reanalysis, a reliable source for data-scarce regions, such as central British Columbia (Canada). The results show the feasibility of the local calibration of different formulations using ERA5 reanalysis data for all-sky conditions with RMSE metrics ranging from 37.1 to 267.3 W m −2 , which is comparable with ERA5 reanalysis data and can easily be applied at broader scales by implementing it into hydrological models. Moreover, it is shown that ERA5 gridded data for DLI shows the best results with RMSE = 31.7 W m −2 . This higher performance suggests using ERA5 data directly as input data for hydrological and ecological models.

Current and Projected Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the U.S. - Khan, Salah Uddin; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Fazil, Aamir A.; Gachon, Philippe H.; Dueymes, Guillaume U.; Greer, Amy L.; Ng, Victoria (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2020)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

Using the theory of planned behavior to identify key beliefs underlying flood-related adaptive behaviors in the province of Québec, Canada - Jacob, Johann; Valois, Pierre; Tessier, Maxime; Talbot, Denis; Anctil, François; Cloutier, Geneviève; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien (Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2023)
Given that flooding episodes are occurring at a greater rate due to climate change, individuals must adopt certain adaptation behaviors to prevent or mitigate the anticipated or negative impact of such events. However, few studies have assessed if and how households and individuals have actually taken action in this regard. Because some individual beliefs can be linked to facilitating factors and barriers to action, a better understanding of the adoption of adaptive behaviors requires a combined analysis of individual psychosocial factors. The purpose of this study was to develop a better understanding of the reasons underlying the adoption of behaviors related to structural adaptation to flooding by people living in or near flood-prone areas in the Province of Québec (Canada). Results of a series of structural equation modeling showed that behavioral, normative and control beliefs were all significant predictors of the respondents' intention to adopt structural flood protective behaviors, with normative beliefs being the strongest. By identifying the best psychosocial predictors of the adoption of such behaviors, the results of this study provide valuable insights regarding the most effective factors to be used in public health messages to promote the adoption of behaviors related to structural adaptation to flooding.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Mai_2023

Modelling the impacts of climate change on riverine thermal regimes in western Canada's largest Pacific watershed. - Islam, Siraj ul; Hay, Rachel W.; Déry, Stephen J.; Booth, Barry P. (Scientific Reports, 2019)
Quantification of climate change impacts on the thermal regimes of rivers in British Columbia (BC) is crucial given their importance to aquatic ecosystems. Using the Air2Stream model, we investigate the impact of both air temperature and streamflow changes on river water temperatures from 1950 to 2015 across BC’s 234,000 km2 Fraser River Basin (FRB). Model results show the FRB’s summer water temperatures rose by nearly 1.0°C during 1950–2015 with 0.47°C spread across 17 river sites. For most of these sites, such increases in average summer water temperature have doubled the number of days exceeding 20°C, the water temperature that, if exceeded, potentially increases the physiological stress of salmon during migration. Furthermore, river sites, especially those in the upper and middle FRB, show significant associations between Pacific Ocean teleconnections and regional water temperatures. A multivariate linear regression analysis reveals that air temperature primarily controls simulated water temperatures in the FRB by capturing ~80% of its explained variance with secondary impacts through river discharge. Given such increases in river water temperature, salmon returning to spawn inthe Fraser River and its tributaries are facing continued and increasing physical challenges now and potentially into the future.

Evaluating uncertainties in modelling the snow hydrology of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada - Islam, Siraj ul; Déry, Stephen J. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2016)
This study evaluates predictive uncertainties in the snow hydrology of the Fraser River Basin(FRB) of British Columbia(BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model forced with several high-resolution gridded climate datasets. These datasets include the Canadian Precipitation Analysis and the thin-plate smoothing splines(ANUSPLIN), North American Regional Reanalysis(NARR), University of Washington(UW) and Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium(PCIC) gridded products. Uncertainties are evaluated at different stages of the VIC implementation, starting with the driving datasets, optimization of model parameters, and model calibration during cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). The inter-comparison of the forcing datasets (precipitation and air temperature) and their VIC simulations (snow water equivalent – SWE – and runoff) reveals widespread differences over the FRB, especially in mountainous regions. The ANUSPLIN precipitation shows a considerable dry bias in the Rocky Mountains, whereas the NARR winter air temperature is 2°C warmer than the other datasets over most of the FRB. In the VIC simulations, the elevation-dependent changes in the maximum SWE(maxSWE) are more prominent at higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains, where the PCIC-VIC simulation accumulates too much SWE and ANUSPLIN-VIC yields an underestimation. Additionally, at each elevation range, the day of maxSWE varies from 10to 20days between the VIC simulations. The snow melting season begins early in the NARR-VIC simulation, whereas the PCIC-VIC simulation delays the melting, indicating seasonal uncertainty in SWE simulations. When compared with the observed runoff for the Fraser River main stem at Hope, BC, the ANUSPLIN-VIC simulation shows considerable underestimation of runoff throughout the water year owing to reduced precipitation in the ANUSPLIN forcing dataset. The NARR-VIC simulation yields more winter and spring runoff and earlier decline of flows in summer due to a nearly 15-day earlier onset of the FRB springtime snowmelt. Analysis of the parametric uncertainty in the VIC calibration process shows that the choice of the initial parameter range plays a crucial role in defining the model hydrological response for the FRB. Furthermore, the VIC calibration process is biased toward cool and warm phases of the PDO and the choice of proper calibration and validation time periods is important for the experimental setup. Overall the VIC hydrological response is prominently influenced by the uncertainties involved in the forcing datasets rather than those in its parameter optimization and experimental setups.

Wastewater Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Canada - Hrudey, Steve E.; Bischel, Heather N.; Charrois, Jeff; Chik, Alex H. S.; Conant, Bernadette; Delatolla, Rob; Dorner, Sarah; Graber, Tyson E.; Hubert, Casey; Isaac-Renton, Judy; Pons, Wendy; Safford, Hannah; et al. (FACETS, 2022)
Wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 RNA is a relatively recent adaptation of long-standing wastewater surveillance for infectious and other harmful agents. Individuals infected with COVID-19 were found to shed SARS-CoV-2 in their faeces. Researchers around the world confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments could be detected and quantified in community wastewater. Canadian academic researchers, largely as volunteer initiatives, reported proof-of-concept by April 2020. National collaboration was initially facilitated by the Canadian Water Network. Many public health officials were initially skeptical about actionable information being provided by wastewater surveillance even though experience has shown that public health surveillance for a pandemic has no single, perfect approach. Rather, different approaches provide different insights, each with its own strengths and limitations. Public health science must triangulate among different forms of evidence to maximize understanding of what is happening or may be expected. Well-conceived, resourced, and implemented wastewater-based platforms can provide a cost-effective approach to support other conventional lines of evidence. Sustaining wastewater monitoring platforms for future surveillance of other disease targets and health states is a challenge. Canada can benefit from taking lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic to develop forward-looking interpretive frameworks and capacity to implement, adapt, and expand such public health surveillance capabilities.
Keywords: Dorner_Sarah

Les conditions nivologiques et hydro-météorologiques propices au déclenchement des coulées de slush : L’exemple du Québec (Canada) - Hétu, Bernard; Fortin, Guillaume; Dubé, Jérôme; Boucher, Dominic; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Gagnon, Jean-Pierre (2016)
Une coulee de slush (bouillie de neige fondante) est un ecoulement rapide constitue d’un melange de neige fondante, d’eau, de boue et de debris de toutes sortes. Les sept sites analyses demontrent que les coulees de slush peuvent survenir dans des contextes topographiques fort differents qui presentent toutefois des similitudes au niveau du mode d’enneigement et des conditions hydro-meteorologiques. Les coulees de slush etudiees demarrent dans des ruisseaux d’ordre 1 ou 2, etroits et peu profonds, de pente tres variable (de 1° a plus de 30°), qui sont combles par des bouchons de neige dense soufflee par le vent ou transportee par les avalanches. Parce qu’ils s’opposent a la libre circulation des eaux de fusion lors des periodes de fonte acceleree, ces bouchons de neige favorisent la saturation du manteau neigeux jusqu’a la rupture sous l’effet combine de la pression hydrostatique et de la gravite. Les onze coulees analysees, qui se sont produites entre 1936 et 2013, permettent de definir deux scenarios hydro-meteorologiques propices a leur declenchement : 1) des redoux de longue duree caracterises par des temperatures qui restent positives pendant plusieurs jours consecutifs sans apport de precipitations liquides; 2) des redoux relativement courts (moins de 48 heures) couples a des precipitations liquides abondantes. Largement meconnues au Quebec, les coulees de slush pourraient etre plus frequentes a l’avenir en reponse au rechauffement climatique en cours.