Development of a methodology for predicting landslide hazards at a regional scale - Richer, Blanche; Saeidi, Ali; Boivin, Maxime; Rouleau, Alain; Lévesque, Yan (Geoenvironmental Disasters, 2023)
Landslide risk analysis is a common geotechnical evaluation and it aims to protect life and infrastructure. In the case of sensitive clay zones, landslides can affect large areas and are difficult to predict. Here we propose a methodology to determine the landslide hazard across a large territory, and we apply our approach to the Saint-Jean-Vianney area, Quebec, Canada. The initial step consists of creating a 3D model of the surficial deposits of the target area. After creating a chart of the material electrical resistivity adapted for eastern Canada, we applied electric induction to interpret the regional soil. We transposed parameter values obtained from the laboratory to a larger scale, that is to a regional slope using the results of a back analysis undertaken earlier, on a smaller slide within the same area. The regional 3D model of deposits is then used to develop a zonation map of slopes that are at risk and their respective constraint areas with the study region. This approach allowed us to target specific areas where a more precise stability analysis would be required. Our methodology offers an effective tool for stability analysis in territories characterized by the presence of sensitive clays.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime; Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2023

Reclassifying historical disasters: From single to multi-hazards - Lee, Ryan; White, Christopher J.; Adnan, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani; Douglas, John; Mahecha, Miguel D.; O'Loughlin, Fiachra E.; Patelli, Edoardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Roberts, Matthew J.; Martius, Olivia; Tubaldi, Enrico; Van Den Hurk, Bart; et al. (Science of The Total Environment, 2024)

Assessing the vulnerability of urban drinking water intakes to water scarcity under global change: A bottom-up approach - Leveque, Baptiste; Irakiza Shyaka, Albert; Ndong, Mouhamed; Jalbert, Jonathan; Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Kammoun, Raja; Dorner, Sarah; Bichai, Françoise (Environmental Challenges, 2024)
Keywords: Dorner_Sarah

Spatial distribution of socio-demographic and housing-based factors in relation to flash and slow-rise flooding hazards in the U.S - Oke, Oluwatobi; Dougherty, Erin; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Ellison Carter (2023)
Abstract Previous studies have drawn attention to racial and socioeconomic disparities in exposures associated with flood events at varying spatial scales, but most of these studies have not differentiated flood risk. Assessing flood risk without differentiating floods by their characteristics (e.g. duration and intensity of precipitation leading to flooding) may lead to less accurate estimates of the most vulnerable locations and populations. In this study, we compare the spatial patterning of social vulnerability, types of housing, and housing tenure (i.e. rented vs. owned) between two specific flood types used operationally by the National Weather Service—flash floods and slow-rise floods—in the floodplains across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We synthesized several datasets, including established distributions of flood hazards and flooding characteristics, indicators of socioeconomic status, social vulnerability, and housing characteristics, and used generalized estimating equations to examine the proportion of socially vulnerable populations and housing types and tenure residing in the flash and slow-rise flood extents. Our statistical findings show that the proportion of the slow-rise flooded area in the floodplains is significantly greater in tracts characterized by higher percentages of socially vulnerable. However, the results could not confirm the hypothesis that they are exposed considerably more than less vulnerable in the flash flooded floodplains. Considering housing-occupancy vulnerability, the percentage of renter-occupancies are greater in the flash flood floodplains compared to slow-rise, especially in areas with high rainfall accumulation producing storms (e.g. in the Southeast). This assessment contributes insights into how specific flood types could impact different populations and housing tenure across the CONUS and informs strategies to support urban and rural community resilience and planning at local and state levels.

Comparing spatially explicit approaches to assess social vulnerability dynamics to flooding - Meijer, L.G.; Reimann, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H. (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2023)

Aléas fluviaux des cours d’eau mobiles dans l’est du Québec - Maltais, Maxime; Buffin-Belanger, Thomas; Boivin, Maxime (Les inondations au Québec : risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités, 2022)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime; Chapitre_Ouvrage_Collectif_Numero1

Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological Disasters and Vulnerability in China During 2001–2020 - Li, Ying; Zhao, Shanshan; Zhao, Shiqiang; Wang, Guojie (Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021)
Based on the Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in major meteorological disaster (MD) losses at the provincial scale during 2001–2020 to determine the spatiotemporal variations in MDs and vulnerability in China. Our results suggest that the impacts of MDs, including floods, droughts, hail and strong winds (HSs), low temperature and frosts (LTFs), and typhoons, have been substantial in China. MDs in China affect an average of 316.3 million people and 34.3 million hectares of crops each year, causing 1,739 deaths and costing 372.3 billion yuan in direct economic losses (DELs). Floods and droughts affected more of the population in China than the other MDs. Fatalities and DELs were mainly caused by floods, and the affected crop area was mainly impacted by drought. The national average MD losses decreased significantly, except for DELs. The trends in the affected population and crop area were mainly caused by droughts, and the trends in fatalities and DELs were dominated by floods. Floods and typhoons showed increasing influence in the last two decades relative to other disasters. The annual mean and long-term trends in MD losses exhibited regional heterogeneity and were subject to different dominant hazards in different regions. The disaster losses and their trends in southeastern China were mainly attributed to typhoons. The affected population, crop area, and DELs were all significantly and positively correlated with exposure. The vulnerability of the population, crops, and economy tended to decrease. Economic development reduced the vulnerability of the population and economy but showed no significant influence on the vulnerability of crops. Our findings suggest that more focus should be placed on the impacts of floods and typhoons and that socioeconomic development has an important influence on the vulnerability of the population and economy. These results provide a foundation for designing effective disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

Vulnérabilités psychosociales des populations rurales du Québec en temps de pandémie - Lessard, Lily; Simard, Dominic; Morin, Marie-Hélène (Santé Publique, 2021)
Keywords: Lessard_Lily

Impact of climate change on the vulnerability of drinking water intakes in a northern region - Leveque, B.; Burnet, J.-B.; Dorner, S.; Bichai, F. (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021)
Keywords: Dorner_Sarah

Flood hazards, environmental rewards, and the social reproduction of risk - Oulahen, Greg (Geoforum, 2021)

Développement de connaissances et d’outil pour l’analyse et la gestion des aléas hydrogéomorphologiques - Maltais, M.; Jautzy, T.; Buffin-Bélanger, T. (Université du Québec à Rimouski., 2020)

Development of a damage simulator for probabilistic seismic vulnerability assessment of electrical installations - Hosseinpour, Vahid; Saeidi, Ali; Nastev, Miroslav; Nollet, Marie-José (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2025)

A random forest machine learning model to detect fluvial hazards - Gava, Marco; Biron, Pascale M.; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas (River Research and Applications, 2024)
Abstract Fluvial hazards of river mobility and flooding are often problematic for road infrastructure and need to be considered in the planning process. The extent of river and road infrastructure networks and their tendency to be close to each other creates a need to be able to identify the most dangerous areas quickly and cost‐effectively. In this study, we propose a novel methodology using random forest (RF) machine learning methods to provide easily interpretable fine‐scale fluvial hazard predictions for large river systems. The tools developed provide predictions for three models: presence of flooding (PFM), presence of mobility (PMM) and type of erosion model (TEM, lateral migration, or incision) at reference points every 100 m along the fluvial network of three watersheds within the province of Quebec, Canada. The RF models use variables focused on river conditions and hydrogeomorphological processes such as confinement, sinuosity, and upstream slope. Training/validation data included field observations, results from hydraulic and erosion models, government infrastructure databases, and hydro‐ geomorphological assessments using 1‐m DEM and satellite/historical imagery. A total of 1807 reference points were classified for flooding, 1542 for mobility, and 847 for the type of erosion out of the 11,452 reference points for the 1145 km of rivers included in the study. These were divided into training (75%) and validation (25%) datasets, with the training dataset used to train supervised RF models. The validation dataset indicated the models were capable of accurately predicting the potential for fluvial hazards to occur, with precision results for the three models ranging from 83% to 94% of points accurately predicted. The results of this study suggest that RF models are a cost‐effective tool to quickly evaluate the potential for fluvial hazards to occur at the watershed scale.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Septembre_2024

Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping - Fox, Sean; Agyemang, Felix; Hawker, Laurence; Neal, Jeffrey (Nature Communications, 2024)
Abstract High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster risk planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for spatial variation in social vulnerability, which is a key determinant of variation in outcomes for exposed populations. Here we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from a high-resolution fluvial flood model with gridded population and poverty data to create a global vulnerability-adjusted risk index for flooding (VARI Flood) at 90-meter resolution. The index provides estimates of relative risk within or between countries and changes how we understand the geography of risk by identifying ‘hotspots’ characterised by high population density and high levels of social vulnerability. This approach, which emphasises risks to human well-being, could be used as a complement to traditional population or asset-centred approaches.

On mapping urban community resilience: Land use vulnerability, coping and adaptive strategies in Ghana - Ibrahim, Abdul-Salam; Kuuire, Vincent; Kepe, Thembela (Journal of Environmental Management, 2024)

What can be said about risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change in Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS)? The case of Dominica. A qualitative study - Cooper, Sarah; Abraham, Christiana; Ravaliere, Terrilia; Harris-Glenville, Fiona; McPherson, Nickez; Cloos, Patrick (2023)
IntroductionCaribbean Small island developing states (SIDS) are generally qualified as disproportionately vulnerable to climate change, including extreme weather events like hurricanes. While many studies already documented the impacts of climate change on health in the wealthiest countries, there is little knowledge in this field in Caribbean SIDS. Our study aims to discuss health risks and vulnerabilities in a Caribbean context to inform future adaptation measures to climate change.MethodsOur paper is based on a qualitative study that was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean SIDS. The data come from semi-structured interviews organized between March 2020 and January 2021 with people internally displaced following an extreme climate event, either tropical storm Erika (2015) or Hurricane Maria (2017), and with some people who migrated to Guadeloupe after Hurricane Maria. Interview guides were based on conceptual frameworks on climate change, migration and health, and vulnerability to climate change. Data were analyzed deductively based on frameworks and inductively to allow new codes to emerge.ResultsOur findings suggest that current knowledge of climate change by those who have been displaced by an extreme climate event varied greatly depending on the education level, class, and socioeconomic condition of the participant. Participants experienced various negative consequences from a storm or hurricane such as increased risk of relocation, lack of access to healthcare, and food, job, and water insecurities – all circumstances know to correlate with mental health issues. Participants suggested stronger dwellings, community preparedness committees to act sooner, and climate change sensitization and awareness campaigns to foster community unity and solidarity.ConclusionThese findings contribute to the perspectives and knowledge of climate change, highlighting that existing extreme climate event committees and government officials need to address structural and social barriers that can potentially increase social inequalities and lead to maladaptation to climate change with potential consequences on public health.
Keywords: Cloos_Patrick

Flood risk quantification and mapping: An integrated vulnerability-based approach at the local scale in New Brunswick, Canada - Duhamel, Francis; Germain, Daniel; Fortin, Guillaume (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022)
This paper explores the risk approach, considering both the physical and human dimensions of the phenomenon in order to produce a more realistic and spatial analysis of risk. Exposure and vulnerability were combined and evaluated multidimensionally, considering individual, socio-economic, and structural (building-related) aspects. These risk factors were then integrated in a multi-criteria analysis in order to produce a comprehensive risk index that could be visualized at the building scale. The relative importance of the indicators was determined through a participatory process involving local and national experts on civil security and flooding. Particular attention was paid to individual vulnerability, including perception and preparedness for flood risk, which were explored directly with local people using a questionnaire. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of the responses allowed for a better understanding of the perception and preparedness of populations exposed to flooding. These data should help to improve risk communication between the authorities concerned and the populations at risk, as well as encouraging implementation of appropriate measures and a bottom-up participatory management approach. The integration of data in a geographic information system enables the visualization and spatialization of risk, but also each of its components.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Fevrier_2023

Declining vulnerability but rising impacts: the trends of climatic disasters in Nepal - Chapagain, Dipesh; Bharati, Luna; Borgemeister, Christian (Regional Environmental Change, 2022)
Abstract The impacts of climatic disasters have been rising globally. Several studies argue that this upward trend is due to rapid growth in the population and wealth exposed to disasters. Others argue that rising extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change are responsible for the increase. Hence, the causes of the increase in disaster impacts remain elusive. Disaster impacts relative to income are higher in low-income countries, but existing studies are mostly from developed countries or at the cross-country level. Here we assess the spatiotemporal trends of climatic disaster impacts and vulnerability and their attribution to climatic and socioeconomic factors at the subnational scale in a low-income country, using Nepal as a case study. Loss of life is the most extreme consequence of disasters. Therefore, we employed human mortality as a measure of disaster impacts, and mortality normalized by exposed population as a measure of human vulnerability. We found that climatic disaster frequency and mortality increased in Nepal from 1992 to 2021. However, vulnerability decreased, most likely due to economic growth and progress in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Disaster mortality is positively correlated with disaster frequency and negatively correlated with per capita income but is not correlated with the exposed population. Hence, population growth may not have caused the rise in disaster mortality in Nepal. The strong rise in disaster incidence, potentially due to climate change, has overcome the effect of decreasing vulnerability and caused the rise in disaster mortality.

Mesures concrètes pour réduire les vulnérabilités face aux inondations et leur mise en œuvre au Québec - Eyquem, Joanna (Les inondations au Québec : risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités, 2022)
Keywords: Chapitre_Ouvrage_Collectif_Numero1

Leveraging Hazard, Exposure, and Social Vulnerability Data to Assess Flood Risk to Indigenous Communities in Canada - Chakraborty, Liton; Thistlethwaite, Jason; Minano, Andrea; Henstra, Daniel; Scott, Daniel (International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021)
Abstract This study integrates novel data on 100-year flood hazard extents, exposure of residential properties, and place-based social vulnerability to comprehensively assess and compare flood risk between Indigenous communities living on 985 reserve lands and other Canadian communities across 3701 census subdivisions. National-scale exposure of residential properties to fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flooding was estimated at the 100-year return period. A social vulnerability index (SVI) was developed and included 49 variables from the national census that represent demographic, social, economic, cultural, and infrastructure/community indicators of vulnerability. Geographic information system-based bivariate choropleth mapping of the composite SVI scores and of flood exposure of residential properties and population was completed to assess the spatial variation of flood risk. We found that about 81% of the 985 Indigenous land reserves had some flood exposure that impacted either population or residential properties. Our analysis indicates that residential property-level flood exposure is similar between non-Indigenous and Indigenous communities, but socioeconomic vulnerability is higher on reserve lands, which confirms that the overall risk of Indigenous communities is higher. Findings suggest the need for more local verification of flood risk in Indigenous communities to address uncertainty in national scale analysis.

Environmental vulnerability and resilience: Social differentiation in short‐ and long‐term flood impacts - Houston, Donald; Werritty, Alan; Ball, Tom; Black, Andrew (Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2021)
This paper finds that social differentiation in flood impacts is relatively small soon after a flood, with some surprising results such as professionals and homeowners badly affected in the short‐term – but widens over time, with socially disadvantaged groups displaying less recovery. The paper concludes that vulnerability and resilience to flooding are sensitive to financial resources, institutional support (chiefly from a landlord), and capacity to deal with disruption (chiefly time availability, which is low among professionals and high among retired people). An implication of these findings is that existing indices of flood vulnerability that use multiple measures of social deprivation should be used with caution, as not all conventional aspects of social deprivation are necessarily associated with greater vulnerability to flood impacts. , This paper reports household questionnaire survey results on vulnerability and resilience to flooding from one of the largest and most representative samples ( n = 593) of households up to 12 years after they were flooded, and is one of the first to provide detailed analysis of social differentiation in long‐term flood impacts. A novel finding is that social differentiation in flood impacts is relatively small soon after a flood, but widens over time, with socially disadvantaged groups displaying less recovery. The patterns of social differentiation in vulnerability and resilience to flooding differ markedly according to the type and timescale of the impact, with some normally socially advantaged groups (e.g., professionals and homeowners) being most vulnerable to short‐term impacts. Consistent with some existing studies, we found that older residents (age 70+) have greater resilience to flood impacts, although our sample may not capture the frailest individuals. As in previous research, low income is linked to lower resilience, particularly in the long term. We find that prior experience of flooding, despite enhancing preparedness, overall erodes rather than enhances resilience to flooding. Flood warnings are effective at reducing vulnerability to short‐term impacts. Underlying influences on resilience to natural disasters are complex and may only be revealed by multivariate analysis and not always be evident in simple observed patterns. The paper concludes that vulnerability and resilience to flooding are sensitive to financial resources, institutional support (chiefly from a landlord), and capacity to deal with disruption (chiefly time availability, which is low among professionals and high among retired people). An implication of these findings is that existing indices of flood vulnerability that use multiple measures of social deprivation should be used with caution, as not all conventional aspects of social deprivation are necessarily associated with greater vulnerability to flood impacts.

Physical Vulnerability and Local Responses to Flood Damage in Peri-Urban Areas of Dhaka, Bangladesh - Fatemi, Nawrose; Okyere, Seth Asare; Diko, Stephen Kofi; Kita, Michihiro; Shimoda, Motoki; Matsubara, Shigeki (Sustainability, 2020)
In Eastern Dhaka, perennial flood remains a constant threat to people and livelihoods. Learning from the micro-level experiences of the poor in the peri-urban areas of Dhaka provides insights on the intersections between physical vulnerability, flood response strategies, and adaptive capacity. Through a convergent mixed method, this study examines the physical vulnerability of residential buildings, flood damages, and local physical responses in three neighborhoods of Eastern Dhaka. Results show that the level of damage to buildings is the most important predictor of physical vulnerability to floods. Buildings that are older than 20 years old and built with natural materials are likely to experience high flood damages compared to buildings that are less than 10 years and constructed with durable materials. The study concludes that in addition to socio-economic interventions, a targeted and people-centered flood management regime that pays attention to age, material composition, and structural quality of houses is necessary to build residents’ adaptive capacities and long-term resilience to flooding. This study contributes to the emerging work on grassroots responses to flood vulnerabilities with practical insights for urban planners and disaster management professionals on particular interventions needed to improve the performance of local responses to flood risks and vulnerabilities.

Les inondations au Québec: Risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités - Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Maltais, Danielle; Gauthier, Mario (Presses de l'Université du Québec, 2022)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Exploring spatial heterogeneity and environmental injustices in exposure to flood hazards using geographically weighted regression - Chakraborty, Liton; Rus, Horatiu; Henstra, Daniel; Thistlethwaite, Jason; Minano, Andrea; Scott, Daniel (Environmental Research, 2022)

Improving GALDIT-based groundwater vulnerability predictive mapping using coupled resampling algorithms and machine learning models - Barzegar, Rahim; Razzagh, Siamak; Quilty, John; Adamowski, Jan; Kheyrollah Pour, Homa; Booij, Martijn J. (Journal of Hydrology, 2021)

Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective - Catto, Jennifer L.; Dowdy, Andrew (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2021)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Modification of the DRASTIC Framework for Mapping Groundwater Vulnerability Zones - Barzegar, Rahim; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar; Norallahi, Shahrokh; Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Bou Nassar, Jessica (Groundwater, 2020)
Abstract The DRASTIC technique is commonly used to assess groundwater vulnerability. The main disadvantage of the DRASTIC method is the difficulty associated with identifying appropriate ratings and weight assignments for each parameter. To mitigate this issue, ratings and weights can be approximated using different methods appropriate to the conditions of the study area. In this study, different linear (i.e., Wilcoxon test and statistical approaches) and nonlinear (Genetic algorithm [GA]) modifications for calibration of the DRASTIC framework using nitrate (NO 3 ) concentrations were compared through the preparation of groundwater vulnerability maps of the Meshqin‐Shahr plain, Iran. Twenty‐two groundwater samples were collected from wells in the study area, and their respective NO 3 concentrations were used to modify the ratings and weights of the DRASTIC parameters. The areas found to have the highest vulnerability were in the eastern, central, and western regions of the plain. Results showed that the modified DRASTIC frameworks performed well, compared to the unmodified DRASTIC. When measured NO 3 concentrations were correlated with the vulnerability indices produced by each method, the unmodified DRASTIC method performed most poorly, and the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC method proved optimal. Compared to the unmodified DRASTIC method with an R 2 of 0.22, the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC obtained a maximum R 2 value of 0.78. Modification of DRASTIC parameter ratings was found to be more efficient than the modification of the weights in establishing an accurately calibrated DRASTIC framework. However, modification of parameter ratings and weights together increased the R 2 value to the highest degree. , Article impact statement : The results showed that both linear and nonlinear methods are useful in modifying the ratings and weights of the DRASTIC method for assessing the groundwater vulnerability.

A place-based socioeconomic status index: Measuring social vulnerability to flood hazards in the context of environmental justice - Chakraborty, Liton; Rus, Horatiu; Henstra, Daniel; Thistlethwaite, Jason; Scott, Daniel (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1