Scoping review: understanding the barriers and drivers of risk management in local governments - Bourgeois, Eve; Baril, Pierre-Luc; Normandin, Julie-Maude; Therrien, Marie-Christine (International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 2023)
Purpose This paper aims to provide scholars with a deep understanding of the field through the identification of strengths and weaknesses in the literature and support decision-makers in the development of new practices in local risk management based on scientific data. The specific question in this review asks: what are the drivers and barriers to local risk management? Design/methodology/approach This paper provides an overview of the scientific literature produce over the past 20 years of the divers and barriers to local risk management. This paper presents a scoping review of peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2019 inclusively in the fields of public policy and public administration. Findings This paper makes three main observations regarding the state of the literature. First, this paper finds that scholars mainly focus on single risk and certain regions of the world. Second, there is multiple approached used by the literature to study risk management at the local level. Third, little attention is given to the political context in which local risk management takes place. Originality/value This paper is a complete literature review of more than 500 peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals regarding risk prevention policies over the past two decades. This paper analyzed the main findings of the current literature to provide a general view of the scholarship and improve the collective understanding of risk management at the local level by providing future research avenues.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Mars_2023

Insurance Bureau of Canada Statement: IBC Welcomes The Federal Government’s Leadership on Canada’s First National Flood Insurance Program - Bureau d’assurance du Canada (2023)

Inside the black box of collaboration: a process-tracing study of collaborative flood risk governance in the Netherlands - Avoyan, Emma (Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 2022)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Incorporating multi-criteria decision-making and fuzzy-value functions for flood susceptibility assessment - Azareh, Ali; Rafiei Sardooi, Elham; Choubin, Bahram; Barkhori, Saeed; Shahdadi, Ali; Adamowski, Jan; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin (Geocarto International, 2021)
Keywords: Site_internet_RIISQ

Démarche de gouvernance collaborative d'appréciation des risques des systèmes essentiels - Baril, G.; Hémond, Y.; Lépine, C.; Préval, J.; Robert, B.; Therrien, M.-C. (2020)
schéma de couverture de risques et schéma d’aménagement et de développement), visant à développer de manière concertée avec les municipalités locales une vision commune et une planification conjointe, la MRC est la structure administrative qui, dans le cadre de l’appréciation des risques des SE, pourrait intégrer les principes de gouvernance multiniveau et de gouvernance horizontale. [...] 3.1.5 Le suivi et la révision Un système de suivi avec des indicateurs de performance doit être mis en place dans le but de valider toutes les étapes du processus de gestion des risques, la justesse des évaluations et des priorités établies ainsi que l’efficacité des mesures implantées et l’atteinte des objectifs fixés. [...] La composante "planification" correspond à l’élaboration de plans de mesures d’urgence, de plans de continuité des opérations et de plans de sécurité des actifs établis à l’issue des processus de gestion des risques. [...] Ce cadre théorique fait écho à l’approche globale et intégrée de la sécurité civile du Ministère de la sécurité publique qui repose sur trois principes « la prise en compte de tous les aléas, l’adoption de mesures couvrant les quatre dimensions de la sécurité ́civile et des actions concertées de tous les acteurs à tous les niveaux. [...] 32 Figure 1 - Extrait de la base de données de la MRC d’Argenteuil Figure 2 - Extrait de la base de données de la MRC de Brome-Missisquoi Fait saillant Malgré une bonne connaissance de son territoire par la MRC, la contribution des municipalités locales est fondamentale pour assurer un inventaire détaillé des SE.
Keywords: Hémond_Yannick

Démarche de gouvernance collaborative d'appréciation des risques des systèmes essentiels: rapport final - Baril, Geneviève; Hémond, Yannick; Lépine, Caroline; Préval, Johanne; Robert, Benoît; Therrien, Marie-Christine (2020)
La Politique québécoise de sécurité civile 2014-2024 vise entre autres une meilleure résilience des systèmes essentiels(SE). En raison des conséquences des défaillances des SE sur les activités quotidiennes des communautés, leur résilience est étroitement liée à la résilience urbaine. L’interdépendance de la gestion des risques des systèmes essentiels et des responsabilités municipales, notamment eu égard à la sécurité publique et à l’aménagement du territoire, justifie ainsi une approche collaborative. En 2018, le ministère de la Sécurité publique (MSP) en collaboration avec Ouranos sollicite la communauté scientifique pour réaliser un projet de recherche-action visant à développer une approche de gouvernance collaborative d’appréciation des risques des SE en contexte de changements climatiques. Pour réaliser ce mandat, deux groupes de recherche choisissent d’unir leurs forces. Le Cité-ID LivingLab, rattaché à l’ENAP a pour mission de réaliser des travaux de recherche-intervention sur des problématiques urbaines complexes identifiées par les parties prenantes (acteurs publics, privés, communautaires, citoyens, etc.) afin de coconstruire des pratiques de gouvernance innovantes permettant d’accroître la résilience urbaine. Le Centre risque & performance de Polytechnique Montréal est dédié à l’évaluation de la résilience des infrastructures essentielles et des organisations. Le centre a notamment mis sur pied des communautés stratégiques pour mieux comprendre les interdépendances entre les infrastructures essentielles. Avec la collaboration d’Ouranos pour les aspects liés aux changements climatiques, la nouvelle équipe de recherche possède l’expertise requise pour mettre en relation les deux composantes du mandat, c’est-à-dire la gouvernance collaborative et l’appréciation des risques des SE.
Keywords: Hémond_Yannick

Governance for Flood Risk Reduction: Assessing Quebec’s Special Planning Zone Approach to Landowner Compensations and Restricted Redevelopment - Bornstein, L.; Merkoukhina, K. (2020)

Resilience in the Anthropocene: governance and politics at the end of the world - Chandler, David; Grove, Kevin; Wakefield, Stephanie (Routledge research in the Anthropocene, 2020)
"This book offers the first critical, multi-disciplinary study of how the concepts of resilience and the Anthropocene have combined to shape contemporary thought and governmental practice. Faced with the climate catastrophe of the Anthropocene, theorists and policymakers are increasingly turning to 'sustainable', 'creative' and 'bottom-up' imaginaries of governance. The book brings together cutting-edge insights from leading geographers, international relations scholars and philosophers to explore how the concepts of resilience and the Anthropocene challenge and transform prevailing understandings of Earth, space, time and knowledge, and how these transformations reshape governance, ethics and critique today. This book examines how the Anthropocene calls into question established categories through which modern societies have tended to make sense of the world and engage in critical reflection and analysis. It also considers how resilience approaches attempt to re-stabilize these categories - and the ethical and political effects that result from these resilience-based efforts. Offering innovative insights into the problem of how environmental change is known and governed in the Anthropocene, this book will be of interest to students in fields such as geography, international relations, anthropology, science and technology studies, sociology, and the environmental humanities"--
Keywords: Nobert_Sebastien

Participatory approaches for disaster risk governance? Exploring participatory mechanisms and mapping to close the communication gap between population living in flood risk areas and authorities in Nova Friburgo Municipality, RJ, Brazil - Bustillos Ardaya, A.; Evers, M.; Ribbe, L. (Land Use Policy, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and driving factors of vulnerability to natural disasters in China from 2000 to 2020 - Xue, Yuan; Xu, Lilai; Zhang, Xiaomeng; Ding, Shuangshuang (2023)

Changes in mortality and economic vulnerability to climatic hazards under economic development at the provincial level in China - Wu, Jidong; Li, Ying; Ye, Tao; Li, Ning (Regional Environmental Change, 2019)

Flood Hazards Impact on Neighborhood House Prices - Zhang, Lei; Leonard, Tammy (The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China - Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning (Environmental Research Letters, 2018)
Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978–2015) and DELs (1990–2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.

Economic inequality and institutional adaptation in response to flood hazards: a historical analysis - Van Bavel, Bas; Curtis, Daniel R.; Soens, Tim (Ecology and Society, 2018)

Disaster risk, social vulnerability, and economic development - Ward, Patrick S.; Shively, Gerald (Disasters, 2017)
This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate-related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally-occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT),(1) representing country-year-level observations over the period 1980-2007. The study finds that low-income countries are significantly more at risk of climate-related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.© 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016. Language: en

Changements climatiques, changements du littoral et évolution de la vulnérabilité côtière au fil du temps : comparaison de territoires français, canadien et sénégalais - Weissenberger, Sebastian; Noblet, Mélinda; Plante, Steve; Chouinard, Omer; Guillemot, Julie; Aubé, Mélanie; Meur-Ferec, Catherine; Michel-Guillou, Élisabeth; Gaye, Ndickou; Kane, Alioune; Kane, Coura; Niang, Awa; et al. (2016)

On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change - Visser, Hans; Petersen, Arthur C.; Ligtvoet, Willem (Climatic Change, 2014)
Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone—other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations.

Flood risk, vulnerability and environmental justice: Evidence and evaluation of inequality in a UK context - Walker, Gordon; Burningham, Kate (Critical Social Policy, 2011)
Flooding has only relatively recently been considered as an environmental justice issue. In this paper we focus on flooding as a distinct form of environmental risk and examine some of the key evidence and analysis that is needed to underpin an environmental justice framing of flood risk and flood impacts. We review and examine the UK situation and the body of existing research literature on flooding to fill out our understanding of the patterns of social inequality that exist in relation to both flood risk exposure and vulnerability to the diverse impacts of flooding. We then consider the various ways in which judgements might be made about the injustice or justice of these inequalities and the ways in which they are being sustained or responded to by current flood policy and practice. We conclude that there is both evidence of significant inequalities and grounds on which claims of injustice might be made, but that further work is needed to investigate each of these. The case for pursuing the framing of flooding as an environmental justice issue is also made.

A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science - Turner, B. L.; Kasperson, Roger E.; Matson, Pamela A.; McCarthy, James J.; Corell, Robert W.; Christensen, Lindsey; Eckley, Noelle; Kasperson, Jeanne X.; Luers, Amy; Martello, Marybeth L.; Polsky, Colin; Pulsipher, Alexander; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003)
Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human–environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human–environment systems is presented.

At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters - Wisner, Benjamin Goodwin; Blaikie, Piers; Cannon, Terry; Davis, Ian J. (1994)
Many disasters are a complex mix of natural hazards and human action. At Risk argues that the social, political and economic environment is as much a cause of disasters as the natural environment. Published within the International Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction, this book suggests ways in which both the social and natural sciences can be analytically combined through a 'disaster pressure and release' model. Arguing that the concept of vulnerability is central to an understanding of disasters and their prevention or mitigation, the authors explore the extent and ways in which people gain access to resources. Individual chapters apply analytical concepts to famines and drought, biological hazards, floods, coastal storms, and earthquakes, volcanos and landslides - the hazards that become disasters'. Finally, the book draws practical and policy conclusions to promote a safer environment and reduce vulnerability.

Limited progress in global reduction of vulnerability to flood impacts over the past two decades - Sauer, Inga J.; Mester, Benedikt; Frieler, Katja; Zimmermann, Sandra; Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian (Communications Earth & Environment, 2024)
Abstract Global flood impacts have risen in recent decades. While increasing exposure was the dominant driver of surging impacts, counteracting vulnerability reductions have been detected, but were too weak to reverse this trend. To assess the ongoing progress on vulnerability reduction, we combine a recently available dataset of flooded areas derived from satellite imagery for 913 events with four global disaster databases and socio-economic data. Event-specific flood vulnerabilities for assets, fatalities and displacements reveal a lack of progress in reducing global flood vulnerability from 2000—2018. We examine the relationship between vulnerabilities and human development, inequality, flood exposure and local structural characteristics. We find that vulnerability levels are significantly lower in areas with good structural characteristics and significantly higher in low developed areas. However, socio-economic development was insufficient to reduce vulnerabilities over the study period. Nevertheless, the strong correlation between vulnerability and structural characteristics suggests further potential for adaptation through vulnerability reduction.

Methodological approach for mapping the flood physical vulnerability index with geographical open-source data: an example in a small-middle city (Ponferrada, Spain) - Tascón-González, Laura; Ferrer-Julià, Montserrat; García-Meléndez, Eduardo (Natural Hazards, 2024)
Abstract To increase the resilience of communities against floods, it is necessary to develop methodologies to estimate the vulnerability. The concept of vulnerability is multidimensional, but most flood vulnerability studies have focused only on the social approach. Nevertheless, in recent years, following seismic analysis, the physical point of view has increased its relevance. Therefore, the present study proposes a methodology to map the flood physical vulnerability and applies it using an index at urban parcel scale for a medium-sized town (Ponferrada, Spain). This index is based on multiple indicators fed by geographical open-source data, once they have been normalized and combined with different weights extracted from an Analytic Hierarchic Process. The results show a raster map of the physical vulnerability index that facilitates future emergency and flood risk management to diminish potential damages. A total of 22.7% of the urban parcels in the studied town present an index value higher than 0.4, which is considered highly vulnerable. The location of these urban parcels would have passed unnoticed without the use of open governmental datasets, when an average value would have been calculated for the overall municipality. Moreover, the building percentage covered by water was the most influential indicator in the study area, where the simulated flood was generated by an alleged dam break. The study exceeds the spatial constraints of collecting this type of data by direct interviews with inhabitants and allows for working with larger areas, identifying the physical buildings and infrastructure differences among the urban parcels.

Trajectoires de la vulnérabilité aux inondations dans les bassins versants des rivières Cascapédia et Petite Cascapédia à l'est du Québec - Tomety, Yaovi Djivenou (Université du Québec à Rimouski, 2022)
RÉSUMÉ : Les inondations dans la MRC de Bonaventure, à l'instar des inondations de 2017 et de 2019 aux Québec, amènent à repenser les politiques de gestion préventive des inondations dans les municipalités mais il est nécessaire de revisiter le passé pour mieux anticiper le futur. A l'heure actuelle, aucune étude dans la MRC de Bonaventure n'a abordé la trajectoire de la vulnérabilité aux inondations. Le projet de recherche avait pour objectif d'évaluer l'évolution spatio-temporelle de la vulnérabilité aux inondations dans la MRC de Bonaventure plus précisément dans les bassins versants des rivières Cascapédia et petite Cascapédia. Cette recherche s'est particulièrement intéressée à : - 1) - identifier les indicateurs de vulnérabilité aux inondations les plus pertinents et leurs interactions et - 2) - comprendre la trajectoire de la vulnérabilité aux inondations dans le temps. La méthode indicielle a permis de calculer les indices de vulnérabilité par addition d'indicateurs pondérés dans l'analyse de la trajectoire de la vulnérabilité pour les années 1986, 1996, 2006 et de 2016 à partir de 43 indicateurs sélectionnés, adaptés au contexte de la zone d'étude et validés par la MRC de Bonaventure. L'évaluation de la trajectoire de la vulnérabilité aux inondations révèle que les variables socio-économiques sont les plus importantes contribuant à faire varier la vulnérabilité dans le temps dans les corridors fluviaux des rivières Cascapédia et petite Cascapédia. Cette étude expose le caractère dynamique, temporel et transformationnel de la vulnérabilité. Les cartographies de vulnérabilité générées en maillages de 200 m x 200 m et les enquêtes sur le terrain ont permis de mieux appréhender les changements globaux qui ont contribué à l'évolution de la vulnérabilité aux inondations et de comprendre la nature de la vulnérabilité aux inondations. Cette analyse permettra aux décideurs d'anticiper le futur pour une planification concrète de l'adaptation et des mesures de prévention. La trajectoire de la vulnérabilité se présente alors comme un outil de prévention et de prospection pour les décideurs. Elle permet d'appréhender la vulnérabilité du passé, comprendre la vulnérabilité du présent et anticiper sur la vulnérabilité du futur. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en français : Trajectoire, vulnérabilité, inondation, indice de vulnérabilité, gestion préventive. -- ABSTRACT : The floods in the MRC of Bonaventure, like the floods of 2017 and 2019 in Quebec, lead to a rethink of the preventive flood management policies in the municipalities, but it is necessary to revisit the past to better anticipate the future. At present, no study in the MRC of Bonaventure has addressed the trajectory of vulnerability to flooding. The objective of the research project was to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of vulnerability to flooding in the MRC of Bonaventure, more specifically in the watersheds of the Cascapedia and Petite Cascapedia rivers. This research was particularly interested in: - 1) - identifying the most relevant flood vulnerability indicators and their interactions and - 2) - understanding the trajectory of flood vulnerability over time. The index method made it possible to calculate the vulnerability indices by adding weighted indicators in the analysis of the trajectory of vulnerability for the years 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016 from 43 selected indicators, adapted to the context of the study area and validated by the MRC of Bonaventure. The evaluation of the trajectory of vulnerability to flooding reveals that socio-economic variables are the most important contributing to varying vulnerability over time in the fluvial corridors of the Cascapedia and Petite Cascapedia rivers. This study exposes the dynamic, temporal and transformational character of vulnerability. The vulnerability maps generated in 200 m x 200 m grids and the field surveys have made it possible to better understand the global changes that have contributed to the evolution of vulnerability to floods and to understand the nature of vulnerability to floods. This analysis will allow decision-makers to anticipate the future for concrete planning of adaptation and prevention measures. The trajectory of vulnerability is then presented as a prevention and prospecting tool for decision-makers. It makes it possible to apprehend the vulnerability of the past, to understand the vulnerability of the present and to anticipate the vulnerability of the future. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en anglais : Trajectory, vulnerability, flooding, vulnerability index, preventive management.

The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it - Ruiter, Marleen C. de; Loon, Anne F. Van (iScience, 2022)
Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of the increasing complexity of disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss the complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability and suggest methodological approaches to assess and include dynamics of vulnerability in our risk assessments, learning from the compound and multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, and socio-ecological research communities. We argue for a changed perspective, starting with the circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. We identify three types of dynamics of vulnerability: (1) the underlying dynamics of vulnerability, (2) changes in vulnerability during long-lasting disasters, and (3) changes in vulnerability during compounding disasters and societal shocks. We conclude that there is great potential to capture the dynamics of vulnerability using qualitative and model-based methods, both for reproducing historic and projecting future dynamics of vulnerability. We provide examples using narratives, agent-based models, and system dynamics.

Méthode d’évaluation et de cartographie de la vulnérabilité et du risque humain liés à une inondation en cours au Québec - Tanguy, Marion; Chokmani, Karem; Bernier, Monique; Poulin, Jimmy; Gauthier, Yves; Oubennaceur, Khalid (Les inondations au Québec : risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités, 2022)
Keywords: Chapitre_Ouvrage_Collectif_Numero1

Inondations de 2017 à 2019 à Pierrefonds-Roxboro : quand un diagnostic collectif et des interventions publiques ciblées limitent les vulnérabilités et les conséquences - Tchuitchou Dueyou, Clémentine Rose; Vandelac, Louise (Les inondations au Québec : risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités, 2022)
Keywords: Chapitre_Ouvrage_Collectif_Numero1

Consultations sur les vulnérabilités psychosociales des inondations en contexte de changements climatiques - Annexe 1 - Projet CASSSIOPÉE - Turmel, J.; Lessard, L.; Lafond, A.; Robitaille, M-A (2022)

Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States - Tate, Eric; Rahman, Asif; Emrich, Christopher T.; Sampson, Christopher C. (Natural Hazards, 2021)
Human exposure to floods continues to increase, driven by changes in hydrology and land use. Adverse impacts amplify for socially vulnerable populations, who disproportionately inhabit flood-prone areas. This study explores the geography of flood exposure and social vulnerability in the conterminous United States based on spatial analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood extent, land cover, and social vulnerability. Using bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association, we map hotspots where high flood exposure and high social vulnerability converge and identify dominant indicators of social vulnerability within these places. The hotspots, home to approximately 19 million people, occur predominantly in rural areas and across the US South. Mobile homes and racial minorities are most overrepresented in hotspots compared to elsewhere. The results identify priority locations where interventions can mitigate both physical and social aspects of flood vulnerability. The variables that most distinguish the clusters are used to develop an indicator set of social vulnerability to flood exposure. Understanding who is most exposed to floods and where, can be used to tailor mitigation strategies to target those most in need.

The Hazards of Mainstreaming: Climate change adaptation politics in three dimensions - Scoville-Simonds, Morgan; Jamali, Hameed; Hufty, Marc (World Development, 2020)

Psychosocial vulnerability and demographic characteristics in extreme flash floods: The case of Mandra 2017 flood in Greece - Speis, Phoebe-Demeter; Andreadakis, Emmanuel; Diakakis, Michalis; Daidassi, Evanthia; Sarigiannis, Georgios (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Coaticook : Analyse scientifique de la vulnérabilité intégrant l’implication des acteurs locaux et citoyens pour une ville et une communauté plus résiliente - Thomas, Isabelle; Gagnon, Alexandre (Risques urbains, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1; Thomas_Isabelle

Weaponizing vulnerability to climate change - Thomas, Kimberley Anh; Warner, Benjamin P. (Global Environmental Change, 2019)

Qualitative Assessment of Social Vulnerability to Flood Hazards in Romania - Török, Ibolya (Sustainability, 2018)
This paper investigates local-scale social vulnerability to flood hazards in Romania, aiming to identify the most vulnerable social and demographic groups across a wide range of geographical locations by considering three dimensions: demographic, socioeconomic, and the built environment. The purpose of the paper is threefold: first, it strives to improve the Social Vulnerability model (SoVI®) by applying a different weighting method adapted to the Romanian context, taking into consideration the municipalities exposed to flood movements. Second, it aims to develop an assessment model for the most vulnerable communities by measuring the heterogeneity according to local indicators related to disaster risks. Third, it aims to facilitate emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to increase the resilience of local communities. To perform local-level vulnerability mapping, 28 variables were selected and three aggregated indexes were constructed with the help of the ArcGIS software. Moreover, a model of Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) between communities directly affected by floods and localities with high- and very high values of the Local Social Vulnerability Index (LoSoVI) was used to explore the spatial relationship among them and to compare the appropriateness of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and GWR for such modelling. The established GWR model has revealed that the negative effects of flood hazards are often associated with communities with a high degree of social vulnerability. Thus, the analysis is able to provide a more comprehensive picture on communities in desperate need of financial resources in order to have the ability to diminish the negative impacts of flood hazards and to provide a more sustainable society.

Analyser la vulnérabilité sociétale et territoriale aux inondations en milieu urbain dans le contexte des changements climatiques, en prenant comme cas d'étude la Ville de Montréal - Thomas, I.; Bleau, N. (2018)
28 Figure 7 : limites de la zone inondable et la zone inondée historiquement de la rive de Montréal de la rivière des prairies. [...] 68 Figure 27 : Aperçu de la table d’attributs de la base des données de la description de la sensibilité territoriale. [...] 41 Graphique 3 : Distribution des degrés de la sensibilité sociale par nombre d’aires de diffusion (206 AD au total) du secteur de la rivière des Prairies à Montréal à partir des résultats de l’indice ISSAIP des groupes de l’atelier de travail. [...] Cette analyse implique plusieurs étapes et le développement de plusieurs outils dont : la collecte des données disponibles et nécessaires pour réaliser un état des lieux des zones inondées historiquement pour une partie de la Ville de Montréal, la modélisation de l'espace occupé par l'eau selon différents niveaux d'eau possiblement atteints lors de débordement de la rivière, la collecte des donnée. [...] : la formation de réseaux de communication, la prise de décision, la création de consensus), qu’il est possible de mesurer, mais pas au moyen de données d’archives secondaires.
Keywords: Thomas_Isabelle

Adaptation policy and community discourse: risk, vulnerability, and just transformation - Schlosberg, David; Collins, Lisette B.; Niemeyer, Simon (Environmental Politics, 2017)

Social vulnerability to floods: Review of case studies and implications for measurement - Rufat, Samuel; Tate, Eric; Burton, Christopher G.; Maroof, Abu Sayeed (International journal of disaster risk reduction, 2015)
Abstract A leading challenge in measuring social vulnerability to hazards is for output metrics to better reflect the context in which vulnerability occurs. Through a meta-analysis of 67 flood disaster case studies (1997–2013), this paper profiles the leading drivers of social vulnerability to floods. The results identify demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and health as the leading empirical drivers of social vulnerability to damaging flood events. However, risk perception and coping capacity also featured prominently in the case studies, yet these factors tend to be poorly reflected in many social vulnerability indicators. The influence of social vulnerability drivers varied considerably by disaster stage and national setting, highlighting the importance of context in understanding social vulnerability precursors, processes, and outcomes. To help tailor quantitative indicators of social vulnerability to flood contexts, the article concludes with recommendations concerning temporal context, measurability, and indicator interrelationships.

An Empirical Social Vulnerability Map for Flood Risk Assessment at Global Scale (“GlobE‐SoVI”) - Reimann, Lena; Koks, Elco; De Moel, Hans; Ton, Marijn J.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. (Earth's Future, 2024)
Abstract Fatalities caused by natural hazards are driven not only by population exposure, but also by their vulnerability to these events, determined by intersecting characteristics such as education, age and income. Empirical evidence of the drivers of social vulnerability, however, is limited due to a lack of relevant data, in particular on a global scale. Consequently, existing global‐scale risk assessments rarely account for social vulnerability. To address this gap, we estimate regression models that predict fatalities caused by past flooding events ( n = 913) based on potential social vulnerability drivers. Analyzing 47 variables calculated from publicly available spatial data sets, we establish five statistically significant vulnerability variables: mean years of schooling; share of elderly; gender income gap; rural settlements; and walking time to nearest healthcare facility. We use the regression coefficients as weights to calculate the “ Glob al‐ E mpirical So cial V ulnerability I ndex (GlobE‐SoVI)” at a spatial resolution of ∼1 km. We find distinct spatial patterns of vulnerability within and across countries, with low GlobE‐SoVI scores (i.e., 1–2) in for example, Northern America, northern Europe, and Australia; and high scores (i.e., 9–10) in for example, northern Africa, the Middle East, and southern Asia. Globally, education has the highest relative contribution to vulnerability (roughly 58%), acting as a driver that reduces vulnerability; all other drivers increase vulnerability, with the gender income gap contributing ∼24% and the elderly another 11%. Due to its empirical foundation, the GlobE‐SoVI advances our understanding of social vulnerability drivers at global scale and can be used for global (flood) risk assessments. , Plain Language Summary Social vulnerability is rarely accounted for in global‐scale risk assessments. We develop an empirical social vulnerability map (“GlobE‐SoVI”) based on five key drivers of social vulnerability to flooding, that is, education, elderly, income inequality, rural settlements and travel time to healthcare, which we establish based on flood fatalities caused by past flooding events. Globally, we find education to have a high and reducing effect on social vulnerability, while all other drivers increase vulnerability. Integrating social vulnerability in global‐scale (flood) risk assessments can help inform global policy frameworks that aim to reduce risks posed by natural hazards and climate change as well as to foster more equitable development globally. , Key Points We develop a global map of social vulnerability at ∼1 km spatial resolution based on five key vulnerability drivers (“GlobE‐SoVI”) We establish vulnerability drivers empirically based on their contribution to predicting fatalities caused by past flooding events Accounting for social vulnerability in global‐scale (flood) risk assessments can inform global policy frameworks that aim to reduce risk

Development of a methodology for predicting landslide hazards at a regional scale - Richer, Blanche; Saeidi, Ali; Boivin, Maxime; Rouleau, Alain; Lévesque, Yan (Geoenvironmental Disasters, 2023)
Landslide risk analysis is a common geotechnical evaluation and it aims to protect life and infrastructure. In the case of sensitive clay zones, landslides can affect large areas and are difficult to predict. Here we propose a methodology to determine the landslide hazard across a large territory, and we apply our approach to the Saint-Jean-Vianney area, Quebec, Canada. The initial step consists of creating a 3D model of the surficial deposits of the target area. After creating a chart of the material electrical resistivity adapted for eastern Canada, we applied electric induction to interpret the regional soil. We transposed parameter values obtained from the laboratory to a larger scale, that is to a regional slope using the results of a back analysis undertaken earlier, on a smaller slide within the same area. The regional 3D model of deposits is then used to develop a zonation map of slopes that are at risk and their respective constraint areas with the study region. This approach allowed us to target specific areas where a more precise stability analysis would be required. Our methodology offers an effective tool for stability analysis in territories characterized by the presence of sensitive clays.
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime; Infolettre; Infolettre_Avril_2023

Looking for capacities rather than vulnerabilities: The moderating effect of health assets on the associations between adverse social position and health - Roy, Mathieu; Levasseur, Mélanie; Doré, Isabelle; St-Hilaire, France; Michallet, Bernard; Couturier, Yves; Maltais, Danielle; Lindström, Bengt; Généreux, Mélissa (Preventive Medicine, 2018)
Keywords: Généreux_Mélissa

Reclassifying historical disasters: From single to multi-hazards - Lee, Ryan; White, Christopher J.; Adnan, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani; Douglas, John; Mahecha, Miguel D.; O'Loughlin, Fiachra E.; Patelli, Edoardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Roberts, Matthew J.; Martius, Olivia; Tubaldi, Enrico; Van Den Hurk, Bart; et al. (Science of The Total Environment, 2024)

Assessing the vulnerability of urban drinking water intakes to water scarcity under global change: A bottom-up approach - Leveque, Baptiste; Irakiza Shyaka, Albert; Ndong, Mouhamed; Jalbert, Jonathan; Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Kammoun, Raja; Dorner, Sarah; Bichai, Françoise (Environmental Challenges, 2024)
Keywords: Dorner_Sarah

Spatial distribution of socio-demographic and housing-based factors in relation to flash and slow-rise flooding hazards in the U.S - Oke, Oluwatobi; Dougherty, Erin; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Ellison Carter (2023)
Abstract Previous studies have drawn attention to racial and socioeconomic disparities in exposures associated with flood events at varying spatial scales, but most of these studies have not differentiated flood risk. Assessing flood risk without differentiating floods by their characteristics (e.g. duration and intensity of precipitation leading to flooding) may lead to less accurate estimates of the most vulnerable locations and populations. In this study, we compare the spatial patterning of social vulnerability, types of housing, and housing tenure (i.e. rented vs. owned) between two specific flood types used operationally by the National Weather Service—flash floods and slow-rise floods—in the floodplains across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We synthesized several datasets, including established distributions of flood hazards and flooding characteristics, indicators of socioeconomic status, social vulnerability, and housing characteristics, and used generalized estimating equations to examine the proportion of socially vulnerable populations and housing types and tenure residing in the flash and slow-rise flood extents. Our statistical findings show that the proportion of the slow-rise flooded area in the floodplains is significantly greater in tracts characterized by higher percentages of socially vulnerable. However, the results could not confirm the hypothesis that they are exposed considerably more than less vulnerable in the flash flooded floodplains. Considering housing-occupancy vulnerability, the percentage of renter-occupancies are greater in the flash flood floodplains compared to slow-rise, especially in areas with high rainfall accumulation producing storms (e.g. in the Southeast). This assessment contributes insights into how specific flood types could impact different populations and housing tenure across the CONUS and informs strategies to support urban and rural community resilience and planning at local and state levels.

Comparing spatially explicit approaches to assess social vulnerability dynamics to flooding - Meijer, L.G.; Reimann, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H. (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2023)

Aléas fluviaux des cours d’eau mobiles dans l’est du Québec - Maltais, Maxime; Buffin-Belanger, Thomas; Boivin, Maxime (Les inondations au Québec : risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités, 2022)
Keywords: Boivin_Maxime; Chapitre_Ouvrage_Collectif_Numero1

Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological Disasters and Vulnerability in China During 2001–2020 - Li, Ying; Zhao, Shanshan; Zhao, Shiqiang; Wang, Guojie (Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021)
Based on the Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in major meteorological disaster (MD) losses at the provincial scale during 2001–2020 to determine the spatiotemporal variations in MDs and vulnerability in China. Our results suggest that the impacts of MDs, including floods, droughts, hail and strong winds (HSs), low temperature and frosts (LTFs), and typhoons, have been substantial in China. MDs in China affect an average of 316.3 million people and 34.3 million hectares of crops each year, causing 1,739 deaths and costing 372.3 billion yuan in direct economic losses (DELs). Floods and droughts affected more of the population in China than the other MDs. Fatalities and DELs were mainly caused by floods, and the affected crop area was mainly impacted by drought. The national average MD losses decreased significantly, except for DELs. The trends in the affected population and crop area were mainly caused by droughts, and the trends in fatalities and DELs were dominated by floods. Floods and typhoons showed increasing influence in the last two decades relative to other disasters. The annual mean and long-term trends in MD losses exhibited regional heterogeneity and were subject to different dominant hazards in different regions. The disaster losses and their trends in southeastern China were mainly attributed to typhoons. The affected population, crop area, and DELs were all significantly and positively correlated with exposure. The vulnerability of the population, crops, and economy tended to decrease. Economic development reduced the vulnerability of the population and economy but showed no significant influence on the vulnerability of crops. Our findings suggest that more focus should be placed on the impacts of floods and typhoons and that socioeconomic development has an important influence on the vulnerability of the population and economy. These results provide a foundation for designing effective disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

Vulnérabilités psychosociales des populations rurales du Québec en temps de pandémie - Lessard, Lily; Simard, Dominic; Morin, Marie-Hélène (Santé Publique, 2021)
Keywords: Lessard_Lily

Impact of climate change on the vulnerability of drinking water intakes in a northern region - Leveque, B.; Burnet, J.-B.; Dorner, S.; Bichai, F. (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021)
Keywords: Dorner_Sarah

Flood hazards, environmental rewards, and the social reproduction of risk - Oulahen, Greg (Geoforum, 2021)

Développement de connaissances et d’outil pour l’analyse et la gestion des aléas hydrogéomorphologiques - Maltais, M.; Jautzy, T.; Buffin-Bélanger, T. (Université du Québec à Rimouski., 2020)

Elderly People With Disabilities And Natural Disasters: Vulnerability Of Seniors And Post Trauma - Maltais, Danielle (Gerontology & Geriatric Medicine, 2019)
Keywords: Site_internet_RIISQ

Disparities of population exposed to flood hazards in the United States. - Qiang, Yi (Journal of Environmental Management, 2019)

Spatial Analysis of Social Vulnerability to Floods Based on the MOVE Framework and Information Entropy Method: Case Study of Katsushika Ward, Tokyo - Lianxiao; Morimoto, Takehiro (Sustainability, 2019)
Tokyo is located in a lowland area that is vulnerable to flooding. Due to global climate change, the scalability and frequency of flooding is increasing. On the other hand, population aging and family structural changes, as well as the lack of adaptation measures, would accelerate flooding vulnerability. The key factors involved in social vulnerability must be studied to reduce the risk of flooding. In this study, we refer to the MOVE framework (a disaster vulnerability assessment framework) and analyze it from three perspectives: Exposure to social vulnerability, susceptibility, and resilience. We subsequently develop an index system to complete the evaluation using 11 indicators. The collected data will help reveal social vulnerability to floods in the Katsushika Ward, Tokyo, using the information entropy method and GIS. We found that the western region of the Katsushika Ward is at more risk than the eastern region during flooding. Additionally, the possibility of a serious crisis erupting is greater in the southwestern region than in the northwestern region. Consequently, we conclude that the spatial distribution of flooding varies in the region. The results of this study will help in understanding social vulnerability, in selecting and combining adaptation measures suited to the characteristics of the area, and in the effective and efficient implementation of these measures by the local government’s disaster department.

Risk to Residential Property Values from Climate Change-Related Flooding Hazards: A Mixed Methods Approach - Nguyen, Quyen; Diaz-Rainey, Ivan; Moore, Tony; Thorsnes, Paul; Cox, Simon; McKenzie, Leigh; Stirk-Wang, Leon (SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years. - Masahiro Tanoue; Tanoue, Masahiro; Yukiko Hirabayashi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Hiroaki Ikeuchi; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki (Scientific Reports, 2016)
The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

Exposure to flood hazards in Miami and Houston: are Hispanic immigrants at greater risk than other social groups? - Maldonado, Alejandra; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Chakraborty, Jayajit (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)
Although numerous studies have been conducted on the vulnerability of marginalized groups in the environmental justice (EJ) and hazards fields, analysts have tended to lump people together in broad racial/ethnic categories without regard for substantial within-group heterogeneity. This paper addresses that limitation by examining whether Hispanic immigrants are disproportionately exposed to risks from flood hazards relative to other racial/ethnic groups (including US-born Hispanics), adjusting for relevant covariates. Survey data were collected for 1283 adult householders in the Houston and Miami Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and flood risk was estimated using their residential presence/absence within federally-designated 100-year flood zones. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with binary logistic specifications that adjust for county-level clustering were used to analyze (separately) and compare the Houston (N = 546) and Miami (N = 560) MSAs in order to clarify determinants of household exposure to flood risk. GEE results in Houston indicate that Hispanic immigrants have the greatest likelihood, and non-Hispanic Whites the least likelihood, of residing in a 100-year flood zone. Miami GEE results contrastingly reveal that non-Hispanic Whites have a significantly greater likelihood of residing in a flood zone when compared to Hispanic immigrants. These divergent results suggest that human-flood hazard relationships have been structured differently between the two MSAs, possibly due to the contrasting role that water-based amenities have played in urbanization within the two study areas. Future EJ research and practice should differentiate between Hispanic subgroups based on nativity status and attend to contextual factors influencing environmental risk disparities.

Hispanic Immigrants' Vulnerabilities to Flood and Hurricane Hazards in Two United States Metropolitan Areas - Maldonado, Alejandra; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E. (Geographical Review, 2016)
INTRODUCTION A substantial body of research has focused on the vulnerability of racial/ethnic minorities to hazards and disasters. This work has lumped people with diverse characteristics into general groups, such as "Hispanic" or "Latino/a" (Bolin 2007). Today, Hispanic immigrants represent an important group in U.S. society due to their large and increasing population. According to American Community Survey estimates, as of 2013 there were 21 million foreign-born Hispanics in the U.S., representing 52.5 percent of the total foreign-born population and 6 percent of the U.S. population. Hispanic immigrants are distinguishable from U.S.--born Hispanics due to their concerns about immigration status as well as cultural and linguistic differences. Treating Hispanics as a homogenous group may mask important differences between foreign-born and U.S.--born Hispanics and lead to erroneous conclusions about their disaster vulnerabilities. In order to address the particular risks experienced by foreign-born Hispanics in the U.S., more research characterizing salient dimensions of their vulnerability to hazards and disasters is needed. This study highlights particular vulnerabilities of foreign-born Hispanics living at risk to flooding and hurricanes in the Houston, Texas, and Miami, Florida, Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) by examining their self-protective actions, and their perceptions of and knowledge about flood risks, in comparison to both U.S.--born non-Hispanic whites and U.S.--born Hispanics. It addresses two research questions: what differences exist in self-protective actions and perceptions of risk between Hispanic immigrants, U.S.--born Hispanics, and U.S.--born white residents who live at high risk to flooding and hurricanes; and why do differences in self-protective actions and perceptions of risk exist between Hispanic immigrants, U.S.--born Hispanics, and U.S.--born white residents who live at high risk to flooding and hurricanes? Approaching these questions, we analyze primary structured survey and semistructured interview data using a mixed-method analysis approach, which enables us to clarify particular factors that place Hispanic immigrants at increased risk to flood and hurricane disasters. LITERATURE REVIEW The last three decades have marked the emergence of a social-vulnerability perspective on hazards and disasters, which emphasizes the influence of inequalities on differential risks (Hewitt 1983, 1997; Peacock and others 1997; Wisner and others 2004; Tierney 2006; Thomas and others 2013). From this perspective, risk is determined partly by human exposure to a hazard and partly by people's social vulnerability. While there is debate about the meaning and measurement of social vulnerability, the following definition is useful: "the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard" (Wisner and others 2004, 11). In this study, we analyze the social vulnerability of Hispanic immigrants in terms of self-protection from flood/hurricane hazards, and perceptions of and knowledge about flood/hurricane risks. Here, self-protection is defined as any structural or nonstructural strategy used by households to minimize loss and enable recovery from the impacts of flood or hurricane hazard exposures (NRC 2006). Self-protection strategies in the context of flood and hurricane hazards include home structural as well as nonstructural actions. Structural mitigation actions include elevating home structures, flood-proofing homes, and installing hurricane shutters (FEMA 2014). They also include nonstructural actions, such as maintaining flood insurance. In terms of nonstructural self-protection strategies, in the U.S., flood insurance plays an important protective role, since it provides compensation for property losses. Disaster preparedness is another dimension of nonstructural self-protection that has been examined extensively (Mulilis and Lippa 1990; Faupel and others 1992; Norris and others 1999; Sattler and others 2000; Miceli and others 2008; Borque and others 2013), and can include evacuation planning, maintaining basic supplies (for example, a first aid kit) and being alert (for example, being attentive to hazard reports). …

Mapping Urban Risk: Flood Hazards, Race, & Environmental Justice In New York" - Maantay, Juliana A.; Maroko, Andrew R. (Applied Geography, 2009)
Abstract This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal-weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37% and 72% fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts.

Hydrometeorological aspects of flood hazards in Canada - Lawford, R.G.; Prowse, T.D.; Hogg, W.D.; Warkentin, A.A.; Pilon, P.J. (Atmosphere-Ocean, 1995)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Development of a damage simulator for probabilistic seismic vulnerability assessment of electrical installations - Hosseinpour, Vahid; Saeidi, Ali; Nastev, Miroslav; Nollet, Marie-José (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2025)

A random forest machine learning model to detect fluvial hazards - Gava, Marco; Biron, Pascale M.; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas (River Research and Applications, 2024)
Abstract Fluvial hazards of river mobility and flooding are often problematic for road infrastructure and need to be considered in the planning process. The extent of river and road infrastructure networks and their tendency to be close to each other creates a need to be able to identify the most dangerous areas quickly and cost‐effectively. In this study, we propose a novel methodology using random forest (RF) machine learning methods to provide easily interpretable fine‐scale fluvial hazard predictions for large river systems. The tools developed provide predictions for three models: presence of flooding (PFM), presence of mobility (PMM) and type of erosion model (TEM, lateral migration, or incision) at reference points every 100 m along the fluvial network of three watersheds within the province of Quebec, Canada. The RF models use variables focused on river conditions and hydrogeomorphological processes such as confinement, sinuosity, and upstream slope. Training/validation data included field observations, results from hydraulic and erosion models, government infrastructure databases, and hydro‐ geomorphological assessments using 1‐m DEM and satellite/historical imagery. A total of 1807 reference points were classified for flooding, 1542 for mobility, and 847 for the type of erosion out of the 11,452 reference points for the 1145 km of rivers included in the study. These were divided into training (75%) and validation (25%) datasets, with the training dataset used to train supervised RF models. The validation dataset indicated the models were capable of accurately predicting the potential for fluvial hazards to occur, with precision results for the three models ranging from 83% to 94% of points accurately predicted. The results of this study suggest that RF models are a cost‐effective tool to quickly evaluate the potential for fluvial hazards to occur at the watershed scale.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Septembre_2024

Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping - Fox, Sean; Agyemang, Felix; Hawker, Laurence; Neal, Jeffrey (Nature Communications, 2024)
Abstract High-resolution global flood risk maps are increasingly used to inform disaster risk planning and response, particularly in lower income countries with limited data or capacity. However, current approaches do not adequately account for spatial variation in social vulnerability, which is a key determinant of variation in outcomes for exposed populations. Here we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from a high-resolution fluvial flood model with gridded population and poverty data to create a global vulnerability-adjusted risk index for flooding (VARI Flood) at 90-meter resolution. The index provides estimates of relative risk within or between countries and changes how we understand the geography of risk by identifying ‘hotspots’ characterised by high population density and high levels of social vulnerability. This approach, which emphasises risks to human well-being, could be used as a complement to traditional population or asset-centred approaches.

On mapping urban community resilience: Land use vulnerability, coping and adaptive strategies in Ghana - Ibrahim, Abdul-Salam; Kuuire, Vincent; Kepe, Thembela (Journal of Environmental Management, 2024)

What can be said about risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change in Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS)? The case of Dominica. A qualitative study - Cooper, Sarah; Abraham, Christiana; Ravaliere, Terrilia; Harris-Glenville, Fiona; McPherson, Nickez; Cloos, Patrick (2023)
IntroductionCaribbean Small island developing states (SIDS) are generally qualified as disproportionately vulnerable to climate change, including extreme weather events like hurricanes. While many studies already documented the impacts of climate change on health in the wealthiest countries, there is little knowledge in this field in Caribbean SIDS. Our study aims to discuss health risks and vulnerabilities in a Caribbean context to inform future adaptation measures to climate change.MethodsOur paper is based on a qualitative study that was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean SIDS. The data come from semi-structured interviews organized between March 2020 and January 2021 with people internally displaced following an extreme climate event, either tropical storm Erika (2015) or Hurricane Maria (2017), and with some people who migrated to Guadeloupe after Hurricane Maria. Interview guides were based on conceptual frameworks on climate change, migration and health, and vulnerability to climate change. Data were analyzed deductively based on frameworks and inductively to allow new codes to emerge.ResultsOur findings suggest that current knowledge of climate change by those who have been displaced by an extreme climate event varied greatly depending on the education level, class, and socioeconomic condition of the participant. Participants experienced various negative consequences from a storm or hurricane such as increased risk of relocation, lack of access to healthcare, and food, job, and water insecurities – all circumstances know to correlate with mental health issues. Participants suggested stronger dwellings, community preparedness committees to act sooner, and climate change sensitization and awareness campaigns to foster community unity and solidarity.ConclusionThese findings contribute to the perspectives and knowledge of climate change, highlighting that existing extreme climate event committees and government officials need to address structural and social barriers that can potentially increase social inequalities and lead to maladaptation to climate change with potential consequences on public health.
Keywords: Cloos_Patrick

Flood risk quantification and mapping: An integrated vulnerability-based approach at the local scale in New Brunswick, Canada - Duhamel, Francis; Germain, Daniel; Fortin, Guillaume (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022)
This paper explores the risk approach, considering both the physical and human dimensions of the phenomenon in order to produce a more realistic and spatial analysis of risk. Exposure and vulnerability were combined and evaluated multidimensionally, considering individual, socio-economic, and structural (building-related) aspects. These risk factors were then integrated in a multi-criteria analysis in order to produce a comprehensive risk index that could be visualized at the building scale. The relative importance of the indicators was determined through a participatory process involving local and national experts on civil security and flooding. Particular attention was paid to individual vulnerability, including perception and preparedness for flood risk, which were explored directly with local people using a questionnaire. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of the responses allowed for a better understanding of the perception and preparedness of populations exposed to flooding. These data should help to improve risk communication between the authorities concerned and the populations at risk, as well as encouraging implementation of appropriate measures and a bottom-up participatory management approach. The integration of data in a geographic information system enables the visualization and spatialization of risk, but also each of its components.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Fevrier_2023

Declining vulnerability but rising impacts: the trends of climatic disasters in Nepal - Chapagain, Dipesh; Bharati, Luna; Borgemeister, Christian (Regional Environmental Change, 2022)
Abstract The impacts of climatic disasters have been rising globally. Several studies argue that this upward trend is due to rapid growth in the population and wealth exposed to disasters. Others argue that rising extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change are responsible for the increase. Hence, the causes of the increase in disaster impacts remain elusive. Disaster impacts relative to income are higher in low-income countries, but existing studies are mostly from developed countries or at the cross-country level. Here we assess the spatiotemporal trends of climatic disaster impacts and vulnerability and their attribution to climatic and socioeconomic factors at the subnational scale in a low-income country, using Nepal as a case study. Loss of life is the most extreme consequence of disasters. Therefore, we employed human mortality as a measure of disaster impacts, and mortality normalized by exposed population as a measure of human vulnerability. We found that climatic disaster frequency and mortality increased in Nepal from 1992 to 2021. However, vulnerability decreased, most likely due to economic growth and progress in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Disaster mortality is positively correlated with disaster frequency and negatively correlated with per capita income but is not correlated with the exposed population. Hence, population growth may not have caused the rise in disaster mortality in Nepal. The strong rise in disaster incidence, potentially due to climate change, has overcome the effect of decreasing vulnerability and caused the rise in disaster mortality.

Mesures concrètes pour réduire les vulnérabilités face aux inondations et leur mise en œuvre au Québec - Eyquem, Joanna (Les inondations au Québec : risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités, 2022)
Keywords: Chapitre_Ouvrage_Collectif_Numero1

Leveraging Hazard, Exposure, and Social Vulnerability Data to Assess Flood Risk to Indigenous Communities in Canada - Chakraborty, Liton; Thistlethwaite, Jason; Minano, Andrea; Henstra, Daniel; Scott, Daniel (International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021)
Abstract This study integrates novel data on 100-year flood hazard extents, exposure of residential properties, and place-based social vulnerability to comprehensively assess and compare flood risk between Indigenous communities living on 985 reserve lands and other Canadian communities across 3701 census subdivisions. National-scale exposure of residential properties to fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flooding was estimated at the 100-year return period. A social vulnerability index (SVI) was developed and included 49 variables from the national census that represent demographic, social, economic, cultural, and infrastructure/community indicators of vulnerability. Geographic information system-based bivariate choropleth mapping of the composite SVI scores and of flood exposure of residential properties and population was completed to assess the spatial variation of flood risk. We found that about 81% of the 985 Indigenous land reserves had some flood exposure that impacted either population or residential properties. Our analysis indicates that residential property-level flood exposure is similar between non-Indigenous and Indigenous communities, but socioeconomic vulnerability is higher on reserve lands, which confirms that the overall risk of Indigenous communities is higher. Findings suggest the need for more local verification of flood risk in Indigenous communities to address uncertainty in national scale analysis.

Environmental vulnerability and resilience: Social differentiation in short‐ and long‐term flood impacts - Houston, Donald; Werritty, Alan; Ball, Tom; Black, Andrew (Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2021)
This paper finds that social differentiation in flood impacts is relatively small soon after a flood, with some surprising results such as professionals and homeowners badly affected in the short‐term – but widens over time, with socially disadvantaged groups displaying less recovery. The paper concludes that vulnerability and resilience to flooding are sensitive to financial resources, institutional support (chiefly from a landlord), and capacity to deal with disruption (chiefly time availability, which is low among professionals and high among retired people). An implication of these findings is that existing indices of flood vulnerability that use multiple measures of social deprivation should be used with caution, as not all conventional aspects of social deprivation are necessarily associated with greater vulnerability to flood impacts. , This paper reports household questionnaire survey results on vulnerability and resilience to flooding from one of the largest and most representative samples ( n = 593) of households up to 12 years after they were flooded, and is one of the first to provide detailed analysis of social differentiation in long‐term flood impacts. A novel finding is that social differentiation in flood impacts is relatively small soon after a flood, but widens over time, with socially disadvantaged groups displaying less recovery. The patterns of social differentiation in vulnerability and resilience to flooding differ markedly according to the type and timescale of the impact, with some normally socially advantaged groups (e.g., professionals and homeowners) being most vulnerable to short‐term impacts. Consistent with some existing studies, we found that older residents (age 70+) have greater resilience to flood impacts, although our sample may not capture the frailest individuals. As in previous research, low income is linked to lower resilience, particularly in the long term. We find that prior experience of flooding, despite enhancing preparedness, overall erodes rather than enhances resilience to flooding. Flood warnings are effective at reducing vulnerability to short‐term impacts. Underlying influences on resilience to natural disasters are complex and may only be revealed by multivariate analysis and not always be evident in simple observed patterns. The paper concludes that vulnerability and resilience to flooding are sensitive to financial resources, institutional support (chiefly from a landlord), and capacity to deal with disruption (chiefly time availability, which is low among professionals and high among retired people). An implication of these findings is that existing indices of flood vulnerability that use multiple measures of social deprivation should be used with caution, as not all conventional aspects of social deprivation are necessarily associated with greater vulnerability to flood impacts.

Physical Vulnerability and Local Responses to Flood Damage in Peri-Urban Areas of Dhaka, Bangladesh - Fatemi, Nawrose; Okyere, Seth Asare; Diko, Stephen Kofi; Kita, Michihiro; Shimoda, Motoki; Matsubara, Shigeki (Sustainability, 2020)
In Eastern Dhaka, perennial flood remains a constant threat to people and livelihoods. Learning from the micro-level experiences of the poor in the peri-urban areas of Dhaka provides insights on the intersections between physical vulnerability, flood response strategies, and adaptive capacity. Through a convergent mixed method, this study examines the physical vulnerability of residential buildings, flood damages, and local physical responses in three neighborhoods of Eastern Dhaka. Results show that the level of damage to buildings is the most important predictor of physical vulnerability to floods. Buildings that are older than 20 years old and built with natural materials are likely to experience high flood damages compared to buildings that are less than 10 years and constructed with durable materials. The study concludes that in addition to socio-economic interventions, a targeted and people-centered flood management regime that pays attention to age, material composition, and structural quality of houses is necessary to build residents’ adaptive capacities and long-term resilience to flooding. This study contributes to the emerging work on grassroots responses to flood vulnerabilities with practical insights for urban planners and disaster management professionals on particular interventions needed to improve the performance of local responses to flood risks and vulnerabilities.

Risques d’inondation et vulnérabilité : l’exemple du bassin versant de la rivière Kennebecasis, Nouveau-Brunswick, Canada. - Fortin, Guillaume; Poirier, Charlotte; Duhamel, Françis; Germain, Daniel (2019)
La province du Nouveau-Brunswick, situee dans l’est du Canada, est tres affectee par les inondations. Bien que moins documentee que l’alea, la dimension humaine du risque que represente la vulnerabilite est importante pour l’adaptation des populations. Cet article fait un survol des principaux concepts lies a la vulnerabilite et presente leur application a l’echelle d’un bassin versant de taille moyenne. Les resultats montrent la necessite de considerer simultanement la perception et la preparation au risque d’inondation. En effet, si certains residents dans les zones a risque ont une bonne connaissance des inondations et une perception realiste du risque, cela ne se traduit pas necessairement par une preparation adaptee et adequate face au risque. La reduction du risque passe indeniablement par une meilleure sensibilisation et education de la population.

Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards - Formetta, Giuseppe; Feyen, Luc (Global Environmental Change, 2019)

Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate - Gaur, Ayushi; Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Water, 2018)
Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate.

Appréciation et traitement du risque – Aléas géologiques et hydrométéorologiques dans le secteur de Rigaud-sur-le-Lac pour le chemin du Bas-de-la-Rivière à Rigaud - Gachon, P; Dueymes, G; Benoit, C; Raphoz, M; Boyer-Villemaire, U (Université du Québec à Montréal, Chaire sur les risques hydrométéorologiques dans le contexte des changements climatiques, 2018)
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe; Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Ice-block fall and snow avalanche hazards in northern Gaspésie (eastern Canada): Triggering weather scenarios and process interactions - Graveline, Marie-Hélène; Germain, Daniel (Cold Regions Science and Technology, 2016)
Abstract The database of the Quebec Ministry of Transport allowed us to analyze the occurrence of ice-block falls and snow avalanches for the past decades along national road 132. The results show that ice structure collapse may be categorized into three distinct phases by using daily temperatures (minimum, maximum, and average) and the cumulative degree day (temperatures above 0°C) since the March 1 st , corresponding to the beginning of the ice wall melting period: 1) a short and intense period of ice-block falls from the mid-April to the beginning of May; 2) a period of constant activity, mainly during the two first weeks of May; and 3) isolated residual activity, with a low frequency of ice-block falls until the month of June. The snow avalanche days were mainly characterized by significant snowfalls or rain-on-snow events with temperature>0°C. The multi-hazard probability was then evaluated based on the timing and relative frequency of ice-block fall and the modeling of sufficient snowpack for avalanching. This simple method to assess the synergistic effect of hillslope processes allows a better understanding of the spring avalanche regime related to the collapse of ice structures. These findings are expected to assist in the management of natural hazards and to improve our knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics of mass-wasting events on highways.

Mapping the vulnerability hotspots over Hindu-Kush Himalaya region to flooding disasters - Elalem, Shada; Pal, Indrani (Weather and climate extremes, 2015)
Abstract A disproportionate share of the global economic and human losses caused by environmental shocks is borne by people in the developing nations. The mountain region of Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) in South Asia is threatened by numerous flooding events annually. An efficient disaster risk reduction often needs to rest upon location-based synoptic view of vulnerability. Resolving this deficit improves the ability to take risk reduction measures in a cost-effective way, and in doing so, strengthens the resilience of societies to flooding disasters. The central aim of this research is to identify the vulnerable locations across HKH boundary from the perspective of reported history of economic and human impacts due to occurrence of flooding disasters. A detailed analysis indicates a very high spatial heterogeneity in flooding disaster occurrence in the past 6 decades. The most recent decade reported highest number of disasters and greater spatial coverage as compared to the earlier decades. The data indicates that, in general, economic impacts of flooding disasters were notably higher in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal. On the other hand, vulnerability scenarios with respect to human impacts were diverse for different countries. In terms of morbidity and mortality, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan and India were detected to be most susceptible to human impacts. Although Bhutan had seen lesser number of flooding disasters, higher population living within disaster prone region make them vulnerable. In summary, complex interactions between natural and socio-economic conditions play a dominant role to define and characterize the type and magnitude of vulnerability of HKH countries to disaster occurrence and their economic and human impacts.

Application of Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) and delineation of natural risk zones in Greater Lisbon, Portugal - Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Cutter, Susan L.; Emrich, Christopher T.; Zêzere, José Luís (Journal of Risk Research, 2015)

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation - Jongman, Brenden; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; de Perez, Erin Coughlan; van Aalst, Maarten; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip B.; Ward, Philip J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management - Koks, Elco; Jongman, Brenden; Husby, Trond; Botzen, W. J. Wouter (Environmental Science & Policy, 2015)
Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.

Integrating social vulnerability into federal flood risk management planning - Cutter, S.L.; Emrich, C.T.; Morath, D.P.; Dunning, C.M. (Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2013)
Abstract While flood risk management planning in the U nited S tates has focused on flood control structures designed to protect the economic value of property, it has consistently undervalued other social impacts associated with flooding. The US A rmy C orps of E ngineers ( USACE ) recently initiated research aimed at understanding how to incorporate social characteristics into the measures currently utilised in flood control project evaluation and consideration. This paper proposes a methodology for incorporating a known measure of social vulnerability, the S ocial V ulnerability I ndex ( SoVI ), into USACE civil works planning. Using the USACE S outh A tlantic D ivision as the study area, this paper evaluates eight different variations of the social vulnerability metric and their potential deployment in USACE projects. Each formulation is compared with the original‐computed SoVI as a means to test its spatial and statistical sensitivity, including an assessment of each variant's robustness, reducibility, scalability, and transferability. Results indicate that while it is possible to create simplified, yet robust, versions of SoVI for individual places, such ‘lite’ metrics tend to fall short in areas of scalability and transferability in relation to the original SoVI formulation.

Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards - Cutter, Susan L.; Boruff, Bryan; Shirley, W. Lynn (Social Science Quarterly, 2003)
County-level socioeconomic and demographic data were used to construct an index of social vulnerability to environmental hazards, called the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data. Copyright (c) 2003 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.

Les inondations au Québec: Risques, aménagement du territoire, impacts socioéconomiques et transformation des vulnérabilités - Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Maltais, Danielle; Gauthier, Mario (Presses de l'Université du Québec, 2022)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Exploring spatial heterogeneity and environmental injustices in exposure to flood hazards using geographically weighted regression - Chakraborty, Liton; Rus, Horatiu; Henstra, Daniel; Thistlethwaite, Jason; Minano, Andrea; Scott, Daniel (Environmental Research, 2022)

Improving GALDIT-based groundwater vulnerability predictive mapping using coupled resampling algorithms and machine learning models - Barzegar, Rahim; Razzagh, Siamak; Quilty, John; Adamowski, Jan; Kheyrollah Pour, Homa; Booij, Martijn J. (Journal of Hydrology, 2021)

Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective - Catto, Jennifer L.; Dowdy, Andrew (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2021)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

Modification of the DRASTIC Framework for Mapping Groundwater Vulnerability Zones - Barzegar, Rahim; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar; Norallahi, Shahrokh; Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Alizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Bou Nassar, Jessica (Groundwater, 2020)
Abstract The DRASTIC technique is commonly used to assess groundwater vulnerability. The main disadvantage of the DRASTIC method is the difficulty associated with identifying appropriate ratings and weight assignments for each parameter. To mitigate this issue, ratings and weights can be approximated using different methods appropriate to the conditions of the study area. In this study, different linear (i.e., Wilcoxon test and statistical approaches) and nonlinear (Genetic algorithm [GA]) modifications for calibration of the DRASTIC framework using nitrate (NO 3 ) concentrations were compared through the preparation of groundwater vulnerability maps of the Meshqin‐Shahr plain, Iran. Twenty‐two groundwater samples were collected from wells in the study area, and their respective NO 3 concentrations were used to modify the ratings and weights of the DRASTIC parameters. The areas found to have the highest vulnerability were in the eastern, central, and western regions of the plain. Results showed that the modified DRASTIC frameworks performed well, compared to the unmodified DRASTIC. When measured NO 3 concentrations were correlated with the vulnerability indices produced by each method, the unmodified DRASTIC method performed most poorly, and the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC method proved optimal. Compared to the unmodified DRASTIC method with an R 2 of 0.22, the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC obtained a maximum R 2 value of 0.78. Modification of DRASTIC parameter ratings was found to be more efficient than the modification of the weights in establishing an accurately calibrated DRASTIC framework. However, modification of parameter ratings and weights together increased the R 2 value to the highest degree. , Article impact statement : The results showed that both linear and nonlinear methods are useful in modifying the ratings and weights of the DRASTIC method for assessing the groundwater vulnerability.

A place-based socioeconomic status index: Measuring social vulnerability to flood hazards in the context of environmental justice - Chakraborty, Liton; Rus, Horatiu; Henstra, Daniel; Thistlethwaite, Jason; Scott, Daniel (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1

A GIS Tool for Mapping Dam-Break Flood Hazards in Italy - Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Adamowski, Jan; Cantisani, Andrea; Sole, Aurelia (ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2019)
Mapping the delineation of areas that are flooded due to water control infrastructure failure is a critical issue. Practical difficulties often present challenges to the accurate and effective analysis of dam-break hazard areas. Such studies are expensive, lengthy, and require large volumes of incoming data and refined technical skills. The creation of cost-efficient geospatial tools provides rapid and inexpensive estimates of instantaneous dam-break (due to structural failure) flooded areas that complement, but do not replace, the results of hydrodynamic simulations. The current study implements a Geographic Information System (GIS) based method that can provide useful information regarding the delineation of dam-break flood-prone areas in both data-scarce environments and transboundary regions, in the absence of detailed studies. Moreover, the proposed tool enables, without advanced technical skills, the analysis of a wide number of case studies that support the prioritization of interventions, or, in emergency situations, the simulation of numerous initial hypotheses (e.g., the modification of initial water level/volume in the case of limited dam functionality), without incurring high computational time. The proposed model is based on the commonly available data for masonry dams, i.e., dam geometry (e.g., reservoir capacity, dam height, and crest length), and a Digital Elevation Model. The model allows for rapid and cost-effective dam-break hazard mapping by evaluating three components: (i) the dam-failure discharge hydrograph, (ii) the propagation of the flood, and (iii) the delineation of flood-prone areas. The tool exhibited high accuracy and reliability in the identification of hypothetical dam-break flood-prone areas when compared to the results of traditional hydrodynamic approaches, as applied to a dam in Basilicata (Southern Italy). In particular, the over- and under-estimation rates of the proposed tool, for the San Giuliano dam, Basilicata, were evaluated by comparing its outputs with flood inundation maps that were obtained by two traditional methods whil using a one-dimensional and a two-dimensional propagation model, resulting in a specificity value of roughly 90%. These results confirm that most parts of the flood map were correctly classified as flooded by the proposed GIS model. A sensitivity value of over 75% confirms that several zones were also correctly identified as non-flooded. Moreover, the overall effectiveness and reliability of the proposed model were evaluated, for the Gleno Dam (located in the Central Italian Alps), by comparing the results of literature studies concerning the application of monodimensional numerical models and the extent of the flooded area reconstructed by the available historical information, obtaining an accuracy of around 94%. Finally, the computational efficiency of the proposed tool was tested on a demonstrative application of 250 Italian arch and gravity dams. The results, when carried out using a PC, Pentium Intel Core i5 Processor CPU 3.2 GHz, 8 GB RAM, required about 73 min, showing the potential of such a tool applied to dam-break flood mapping for a large number of dams.

Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability - Cardona, Omar-Dario; Van Aalst, Maarten K.; Birkmann, Jörn; Fordham, Maureen; McGregor, Glenn; Perez, Rosa; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Schipper, E. Lisa F.; Sinh, Bach Tan; Décamps, Henri; Keim, Mark; Davis, Ian; et al. (Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, 2012)
Keywords: Ouvrage_Collectif_Numéro1