Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR): A Flood-Responsive Approach in Milpa Alta, Mexico City - Areu-Rangel, Omar S.; Singh, Amrie; Bonasia, Rosanna (Environmental Quality Management, 2025)
Milpa Alta, located southeast of Mexico City, is a key region for environmental sustainability due to its volcanic soil, biodiversity, and critical role in aquifer recharge, which supports the city's water supply. However, rapid urbanization has severely impacted the area, causing reduced vegetation cover, increased runoff, and diminished groundwater recharge, which intensify flooding, soil erosion, and water scarcity. This study aims to identify optimal sites for managed aquifer recharge (MAR) structures in Milpa Alta through a multi-criteria analysis incorporating criteria such as topography, land use, proximity to urban areas, and drainage networks. Uniquely, hydraulic simulations of flood scenarios were integrated into the analysis to improve the precision of site selection. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used to assess and combine these criteria, providing a spatial evaluation of suitability. Results indicate that the central and northern regions of Milpa Alta, particularly around San Francisco Tecoxpa and San Antonio Tecómitl, are most suitable for MAR implementation due to their permeable soils, gentle slopes, and proximity to agricultural lands and drainage networks. These MAR structures can enhance groundwater recharge and mitigate flood risks during extreme rainfall events, with the potential to capture up to 300,000 m3 of surface runoff during a single high-intensity storm event. Despite its strengths, the study acknowledges limitations such as the absence of detailed water quality analyses and the need for sensitivity testing of the criteria weighting. This research provides an innovative approach to MAR site selection by integrating flood simulations, offering a replicable model for similar regions. Successful implementation of MAR in Milpa Alta requires addressing water quality concerns, engaging stakeholders, and ensuring compliance with regulatory frameworks. The findings emphasize MAR's potential to balance urbanization pressures with sustainable water management and flood mitigation strategies in Mexico City's rapidly developing areas. © 2025 Wiley Periodicals LLC.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

HyEco: A hybrid hydrodynamic-cum-ecological modelling framework to demystify flood and human-health risks over flood-prone metropolis - Deopa, Rahul; Mohanty, Mohit Prakash (Water Research X, 2025)
Urban flooding, exacerbated by climate change and unregulated urbanization, poses significant risks to the built environment. In addition to physical damage, floodwaters often mobilize a hazardous mix of untreated sewage, industrial effluents, and undesirable pollutants, leading to severe microbial contamination in the floodwaters. This study introduces “HyEco”-an integrated framework comprising high-fidelity 3-way coupled hydrodynamic and ecological modelling with an aim to capture the “unhidden tangible flood risks” and “hidden intangible public-health risks” in tandem. Focusing on Delhi, India, a densely populated metropolis prone to recurrent urban flooding and associated health crises, the framework simulates the 2023 mega-flood event. Results show that approximately 63.5 % of the region is categorized under ‘high’ to ‘very high’ flood risk zones, with over 20 % of these areas housing around 15 % of the city's dense population. The hydrodynamic model outputs were forced into the ecological model to simulate the fate and transport of microbial contamination in floodwaters. Escherichia coli concentrations ranged from 772,868 to 790,000 MPN/100 mL, far exceeding established safety thresholds. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) reveals elevated infection probabilities, particularly among children, with risks up to 2.60×10⁻³ under repeated exposure and 8.38×10⁻⁴ to 8.57×10⁻⁴ for pedestrian splash exposures. Unlike prior approaches that examine flood and microbial risks in isolation or depend on static datasets, HyEco overcomes key methodological gaps by dynamically integrating flood and microbial processes at high spatio-temporal resolution. The HyEco framework offers a scalable and actionable tool for integrated flood risk management and climate-resilient public health planning. © 2025
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Pedestrian vulnerability assessment of underground staircases in urban flooding - Wu, Wenqi; Zhu, Zhongfan; Zheng, Xinyu; Liu, Shuyou; Zhang, Dawei (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2025)
Urban underground flooding occurs frequently worldwide in the context of climate change and rapid urbanization, posing a serious threat to the travel safety of urban populations; in particular, staircases play an important role in the emergency evacuation of pedestrians in floodwater. Previous studies have identified the staircase configuration as a crucial factor influencing the evacuation difficulty of pedestrians in floodwater. However, the correlation between the geometric characteristics of staircase structures and pedestrian vulnerability is not fully understood, and few parametric studies have focused on the effects of wind intrusion into underground spaces and the effects of various engineering measures. This study thereby aims to assess pedestrian vulnerability in underground staircase floodwater as the width of the lower segment of the staircase increases, the effect of wind in the staircase is incorporated, and several flood prevention and/or windproof measures are implemented. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed to reproduce the mean floodwater flow field and wind flow field on underground staircases. The findings show that (i) a variation in the width of the lower staircase after the rest platform affects pedestrian vulnerability, i.e., an increasing lower staircase width decreases the pedestrian risk to a certain degree; however, the jet behind the rest platform intensifies it; (ii) the incorporation of the wind effect when it intrudes the staircase obviously deteriorates the pedestrian vulnerability, and a discrepancy exists in the evacuation speeds of different pedestrian groups under a joint effect of wind and floodwater; and (iii) some engineering measures, especially windproof measures, have the potential to mitigate pedestrian vulnerability. These findings can serve as a reference for policymakers and stakeholders in coping with urban underground flooding hazards and guiding the emergency evacuation of people trapped in floodwater in the context of resilient city construction. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Rapid-Mapping Maximum Water Depth Map of Urban Flood Using a Highly Adaptable Machine Learning Based Model - Li, Jingru; Pan, Guiying; Chen, Yangyu; Wang, Xiaoling; Huang, Peizhi; Zhang, Li; Zhou, Haijun (Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2025)
Rapid urban flood mapping is crucial for timely risk alerts and emergency relief. Machine learning (ML)-based mapping models emerge as a promising approach for fast, accurate inundation forecasts. However, current ML models often use precipitation features as inputs and predict maximum flood depth for all grid cells of a specific region simultaneously. This special design improves their prediction efficiency but limits their application in new regions. This study aims to create a highly adaptable, rapid urban maximum flood water depth mapping model based on the random forest regression algorithm and the extreme gradient boosting algorithm. Our mapping model additionally incorporates terrain and land-use features, besides the precipitation feature, as input variables and generates the maximum water depth only for a grid cell in each mapping. Thus, it can be unchangeably applied to the grid cells in a new area when the model is fully trained. In the case study of Shenzhen, China, our ML-based mapping model demonstrated excellent mapping ability in both training and validation sets. The coefficient of determination (R2) is consistently greater than or close to 95%. Furthermore, it revealed good generalization ability when directly applied to a new rainfall event (R2 = 0.875) and a new area (R2 = 0.810). Meanwhile, the time cost of the mapping model is less than 3 s, meeting the requirement for real-time mapping. These results indicate that this highly adaptable model, once appropriately trained, can be applied to rapid urban flood severity mapping, which significantly reduces its use cost in urban flood management. © 2025 The Author(s). Journal of Flood Risk Management published by Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Extreme precipitation risk assessment with improved WOA-Optimized copula model under composite conditions - Wang, Zhaocai; Ma, Chao; Wu, Junhao; Wu, Tunhua (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2025)
An accurate study of extreme precipitation risk events is crucial for flood control, urban planning, and engineering design. The Copula function effectively handles uncertainties and nonlinear interactions among multiple hydrological variables, capturing complex correlations in extreme precipitation events for more precise risk assessments. Selecting the parameters of the Copula function is critical, as it defines the function’s shape and the dependence structure between variables, influencing its application. Traditional parameterization methods, like maximum likelihood estimation and least squares, often require large datasets and distribution assumptions, making them cumbersome for high-dimensional data. This research presents a model using an enhanced whale optimization algorithm to estimate Copula parameters (CLCWOA-Copula), aiming to assess return period (RP) and failure probability associated with extreme precipitation risk events. Monthly precipitation data from Zhengzhou, China, from 1950 to 2024 is analyzed, using the 90th percentile as the extreme precipitation threshold. Marginal distributions are fitted using the P-III and gamma distributions, etc., which are then combined using CLCWOA-Copula to analyze coincident RP, joint RP, Kendall RP, and failure probability under composite conditions. The results demonstrate that this optimization method possesses strong global search capabilities and parallel computing abilities, yielding optimal Copula parameter values within few iterations and selecting the best-fit Copula function based on AIC, R², and RMSE. The Kendall RP and failure probability offer more accurate tools for extreme precipitation risk analysis; when Pmax reaches 540 mm, P90 reaches 1080 mm, or R90 reaches 0.83, a one-in-a-century extreme precipitation event is indicated. This study provides important insights for risk metrics applicable to extreme weather. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2025.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Climate-smart water management in rice paddies: a meta-synthesis on greenhouse gas emissions and yield impacts - Minamikawa, Kazunori (Paddy and Water Environment, 2025)
Water management practices in rice paddies, particularly alternate wetting and drying and midseason drainage followed by intermittent irrigation, are widely recognized for reducing methane (CH4) emissions and irrigation water use compared to continuous flooding (CF). However, these practices also increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and their effect on rice yield remains unclear, especially in the context of technology dissemination to farmers. This study (1) reviews 11 recent meta-analyses on CH4 and N2O emissions and rice yield and (2) synthesizes their reported effects on rice growth and yield. Aggregated data show that CH4 emissions decreased by 31–62% (n = 10), while N2O emissions increased by 37–445% (n = 7), relative to CF. Rice yield change ranged from − 5.4% to + 11% with a mean of + 1.3% (n = 8). The impact of water management on rice yield varied depending on the timing and intensity of drainage events, with excessive water stress—particularly during the heading stage—and prolonged reductive soil conditions being key risk factors. Results indicate that mild-intensity drainage practices, such as ‘safe AWD,’ not only avoid yield penalties but can significantly enhance rice productivity when tailored to favorable environmental and agronomic conditions. For effective dissemination of these practices, leveraging yield improvement as an incentive for farmers is essential. Optimizing drainage schedules in accordance with rice physiological stages and local conditions is critical. With appropriate localization, water management can serve as a climate-smart strategy that simultaneously improves water efficiency, reduces greenhouse gas emissions, and maintains or increases rice productivity. © The Author(s) 2025.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

A REVIEW OF THE IMPACT OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ON FRESHWATER, TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE ECOSYSTEMS - Eichelmann, Elke; Naber, Nadeem; Battamo, Ashenafi Yohannes; O’Sullivan, John J.; Salauddin; Kelly-Quinn, Mary (Biology and Environment, 2025)
Extreme weather events (EWEs), including floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms, are increasingly recognised as major drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. In this systematic review, we synthesise 251 studies documenting the impacts of extreme weather events on freshwater, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, with the goal of informing effective conservation and management strategies for areas of special conservation or protection focus in Ireland.Twenty-two of the reviewed studies included Irish ecosystems. In freshwater systems, flooding (34 studies) was the most studied EWE, often linked to declines in species richness, abundance and ecosystem function. In terrestrial ecosystems, studies predominantly addressed droughts (60 studies) and extreme temperatures (48 studies), with impacts including increase in mortality, decline in growth and shift in species composition. Marine and coastal studies focused largely on storm events (33 studies), highlighting physical damages linked to wave actions, behavioural changes in macrofauna, changes in species composition and distribution, and loss in habitat cover. Results indicate that most EWEs lead to negative ecological responses, although responses are context specific.While positive responses to EWEs are rare, species with adaptive traits displayed some resilience, especially in ecosystems with high biodiversity or refuge areas.These findings underscore the need for conservation strategies that incorporate EWE projections, particularly for protected habitats and species. © 2025 Royal Irish Academy. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Systematic review of flood resilience strategies in Lagos Metropolis: pathways toward the 2030 sustainable development agenda - Orimoogunje, Oluwagbenga; Aniramu, Opeyemi (Frontiers in Climate, 2025)
Flooding presents a significant challenge in the Lagos metropolis, driven by rapid urbanization, poor drainage infrastructure, and climate change. This study evaluates flood resilience strategies in Lagos, analyzing their effectiveness in mitigating flood risks and their alignment with the 2030 Agenda. The research utilizes the PICO (Population, Intervention, Control, and Outcomes) framework to refine research questions and follows PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines for study selection, search strategies, and data extraction. A thorough search across databases such as Google Scholar, SCOPUS, and government data repositories was conducted to ensure the inclusion of relevant studies while minimizing selection bias. The study emphasizes the severe impacts of flooding, referencing the 2022–2023 flood event which resulted in USD 262,500 damages and displaced 8000 residents in Lagos State. Current flood resilience strategies are inadequate to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to insufficient urban flood infrastructure, poor waste disposal practices, and worsening climatic conditions. The livelihoods, income, health, and overall survival of vulnerable communities are at significant risk. Key gaps identified include the weak enforcement of urban planning regulations, limited community engagement, ineffective early warning systems, and poor intervention initiatives. This study suggests a multi-stakeholder approach that enhances both structural and non-structural flood resilience. Improving drainage systems, promoting sustainable waste management, improving climate adaptation policies, and fostering community-based flood mitigation strategies are crucial for achieving long-term urban resilience. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and climate resilience advocates working toward the Sustainable Development Agenda in Lagos metropolis. Copyright © 2025 Orimoogunje and Aniramu.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Advances in flow and civil structures - Wang, Benshuo; Zhang, Xuelin; Li, Cruz Y.; Chen, Zengshun; Tse, Tim K. T. (Physics of Fluids, 2025)
The Flow and Civil Structures special collection is one of the earliest and largest efforts to consolidate transformative research bridging fluid mechanics and civil engineering. It addresses mutual and escalating challenges posed by extreme environmental loads and rapid urbanization, linking these two massive research fields. With nearly 200 papers, contributions span fluid-structure interactions in bridges, building, and high-speed railways; hydrodynamic resilience of offshore infrastructure; granular flows in urban drainage systems; turbulence-driven pollutant dispersion; and much beyond. The collection features advances in experiments, numerical simulations, field measurements, and analytical methods to improve predictions of wind-induced vibrations, optimize wave-resistant design, and mitigate urban flooding hazards. By integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning analysis, it advances infrastructure resilience for compound hazards in an increasingly dynamic climate, addressing both global and local scales. © 2025 Author(s).
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Projections of extreme weather events according to climate change scenarios and populations at-risk in Brazil - Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio; Ferreira, Andrêa Jacqueline Fortes; Pinto Junior, Jony Arrais; Cortes, Taísa Rodrigues; Neves, Danielson Jorge Delgado; de Oliveira, Beatriz Fátima Alves; da Silveira, Ismael Henrique (Climatic Change, 2025)
Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy rainfall and droughts, have become more frequent and intense in Brazil. According to climate change scenarios, this trend, which has a negative impact on people’s health and living conditions, will continue. Here, we analysed indicators for extreme weather events resulting from climate change, projected for the 21st century, alongside socio-demographic indicators for Brazilian municipalities, in an attempt to identify populations exposed to the risks of the climate crisis. We calculated the values of indicators for extreme air temperature and precipitation events, based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data, for a reference period and for the future, as well as socio-demographic indicators based on recent census data. Using Spearman’s coefficient, we then calculated anomaly indicators for the future time intervals and analysed correlations with the socio-demographic indicators. Our results indicate a reduction in cold days and an increase in hot days and heat waves in both scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), with the most changes occurring in the highest emission scenario. The extreme precipitation indicators suggest both an increase and a reduction in intense precipitation and droughts in a number of the country’s regions. The projected changes are more intense in the highest emission scenario, and in the North and Northeast regions. We noted a trend for greatest occurrence of extreme events in locations with a higher proportion of Black, Parda/Brown, Indigenous and Quilombola populations, and the socially vulnerable. We recommend that policies to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change focus on reducing inequalities and promoting climate justice. © The Author(s) 2025.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Future Projection of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Risk in Sichuan-Chongqing Region under CMIP6 Different Climate Change Scenarios - Yao, Ying; Li, Xiehui; Wang, Lei; Li, Hongying (Plateau Meteorology, 2025)
In recent years，rapid urbanization and global warming have led to frequent and severe rainstorm and flood disasters in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. This change will not only have a serious impact on the ecological environment and socio-economic development of the area，but also significantly increase the pressure on urban infrastructure and threaten the safety of people's lives and property. Therefore，it is particularly important to scientifically and accurately analyze the disaster risk of rainstorm and flood in Sichuan-Chongqing region in the past and future. This paper utilized daily precipitation data from 50 selected meteorological stations in the Sichuan-Chongqing region，precipitation data from 5 CMIP6 models，gridded population and economic data under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways（SSPs），as well as DEM and land use remote sensing data. Firstly，using Taylor diagrams，quantitative indices（S），and standardized anomaly sequences，the study evaluated the simulation performance of 5 individual CMIP6 models，an equal-weighted aggregation of 5 models（EWA-5），and unequally-weighted aggregations of 5 models（UEWA-5）for five selected extreme precipitation indices. Then，by building a comprehensive risk assessment model of rainstorm and flood disaster based on disaster risk and vulnerability of disaster bearing body，the study conducted risk assessments，future projections，and comparative analyses of rainstorm and flood disasters during baseline（1995-2014）and future near-term（2025-2044）and long-term （2045-2064）periods under three different climate change scenarios（SSP1-2. 6，SSP2-4. 5，SSP5-8. 5）. Results indicated：（1）The EC-Earth3 model performed best in simulating the five extreme precipitation indices，with correlation coefficients between simulated and observed values of 0. 78 for R95p，0. 90 for RX1day，and 0. 77 for RX5day. Overall，the simulation performance of UEWA-5 exceeded that of EWA-5.（2）During the baseline period，central Sichuan exhibited high values for the five extreme precipitation indices，followed by eastern Sichuan and Chongqing，while western Sichuan showed lower values. The year 1998 recorded peak values for all five indices，with a maximum single-day precipitation of 86 mm for RX1day and an intensity（SDII）value of 11. 3 mm·d-1.（3）In future periods，the five extreme precipitation indices display a spatial distribution characterized by higher values in central regions and lower values around the periphery. Higher levels of social vulnerability and radiative forcing correlate with larger values of extreme precipitation indices. Comparing the two future periods，values of the indices are larger in the long term，notably with R95p averaging 846. 8 mm，an increase of 169. 2 mm compared to the near term.（4）During historical periods，areas with higher comprehensive risk of rainstorm and flood disasters were concentrated in central Sichuan and downtown Chongqing. In the two future periods，the high and moderately high-risk areas in central Sichuan are expected to expand，while the moderate-risk areas will shrink. The range of low-risk areas in the western Sichuan Plateau will also decrease，and the risk levels in southern Sichuan and eastern Sichuan-Chongqing border areas will respectively decrease to moderate-low and low-risk zones. Comparing the two future periods，the range of moderately high and moderate-risk areas in central Sichuan is expected to expand，while southwestern Chongqing will transition to a moderate-risk area in the long term. Other regions will generally maintain their original risk levels. Changes in disaster risk levels in the Sichuan-Chongqing region are less pronounced with increasing social vulnerability and radiative forcing，especially in the western Sichuan Plateau and northeastern Sichuan，where changes in disaster risk levels are minimal. The study results can provide important references for reducing disaster risks，enhancing emergency response capabilities，and making scientifically informed decisions for disaster prevention in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. © Editorial Department of Plateau Meteorology.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Contaminants in Aquatic Ecosystems on Environmental-Human Health - Yu, Kaifeng; Mohapatra, Sanjeeb; Chen, Yihan; Jiang, Peng; Tong, Xuneng (Current Pollution Reports, 2025)
Purpose of the Review: Climate change is intensifying the pressures on aquatic ecosystems by altering the dynamics of contaminants, with cascading effects on ecological and human health. This review synthesizes recent evidence on how rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events influence chemical and microbial contaminant dynamics in aquatic environments. Recent Findings: Key findings reveal that elevated temperatures enhance phosphorus pollution and algal blooms, increase heavy metal release from sediments, and promote the mobilization of organic pollutants. Concurrently, climate change exacerbates microbial contamination by facilitating the spread of waterborne microbial contaminants, especially posing more pressure to antimicrobial resistance-related contaminants through temperature-driven horizontal gene transfer and extreme precipitation events. Complex interactions between chemical and microbial contaminants like heavy metals co-selecting for antibiotic resistance further amplify risks. The compounded effects of climate change and contaminants threaten water quality, ecosystem resilience, and public health, particularly through increased toxicant exposure via seafood and waterborne disease outbreaks. Despite growing recognition of these interactions, critical gaps remain in understanding their synergistic mechanisms, especially in data-scarce regions. Summary: This review highlights the urgent need for integrated monitoring, predictive modeling, and adaptive policies under a One Health framework to mitigate the multifaceted impacts of climate-driven contamination. Future research should prioritize real-world assessments of temperature effects, urban overflow dynamics during extreme weather, and the socio-behavioral dimensions of contaminant spread to inform effective mitigation strategies. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.
Keywords: Scopus_Alert_15_Aout_2025

Entendre et comprendre les expériences de désastre par la recherche narrative - Leclerc, Typhaine; Lessard, Lily; Saint-Charles, Johanne (Intervention, 2024)
Les événements météorologiques extrêmes (EME) et les désastres qu’ils entrainent provoquent des conséquences psychosociales qui sont modulées en fonction de différents facteurs sociaux. On constate aussi que les récits médiatiques et culturels qui circulent au sujet des EME ne sont pas représentatifs de l’ensemble des expériences de personnes sinistrées : celles qui en subissent les conséquences les plus sévères tendent aussi à être celles qu’on « entend » le moins dans l’espace public. Ces personnes sont ainsi susceptibles de vivre de l’injustice épistémique, ce qui a des effets délétères sur le soutien qu’elles reçoivent. Face à ces constats s’impose la nécessité de mieux comprendre la diversité des expériences d’EME et d’explorer des stratégies pour soutenir l’ensemble des personnes sinistrées dans leur rétablissement psychosocial. Cet article soutient que la recherche narrative peut contribuer à répondre à ces objectifs. En dépeignant des réalités multiples, la recherche narrative centrée sur les récits de personnes sinistrées présente aussi un intérêt significatif pour l’amélioration des pratiques d’intervention en contexte de désastre. , Extreme weather events (EWE) and their resulting disasters cause psychosocial consequences that are moderated by different social factors. Media and cultural accounts of EWEs do not represent the full range of disaster survivor experiences, that is, those who experienced the most severe consequences also tend to be those least “heard” in the public arena. These people are therefore most likely to experience forms of epistemic injustice that negatively impact the support offered to cope with disaster. Considering these findings, there is a need to better understand the diversity of EWE experiences and explore strategies for supporting all disaster survivors in their psychosocial recovery. This article argues that narrative research can help meet these needs. By portraying the multiple realities of people affected by EWEs, narrative research focusing on the stories of disaster survivors is also of significant interest for improving intervention practices in this context.

A novel explainable stacking ensemble model for estimating design floods: A data-driven approach for ungauged regions - Kanani-Sadat, Yousef; Safari, Abdolreza; Nasseri, Mohsen; Homayouni, Saeid (Advanced Engineering Informatics, 2025)
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Planetary-Scale Dynamics of Extreme Precipitation Regimes: Precursors and Contributors to Intensity and Longevity - Low, Yeechian; Gyakum, John R. (Monthly Weather Review, 2025)
Abstract Extreme precipitation is often challenging to predict but has substantial societal impacts, especially when it is persistent and affects a large region. We analyze Rossby wave packets, jet streams, atmospheric blocking, Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and elucidate the associated large-scale physical mechanisms contributing to the occurrence and persistence of extreme precipitation regimes (EPRs) in eastern North America as identified in an earlier study. The large temporal and spatial scales of EPRs, as well as the climatological study of EPRs, distinguish this study from previous precipitation studies, which are mostly on shorter-duration events. EPRs are characterized by an unusually slow-moving and persistent large-scale synoptic-scale circulation structure favorable for the southerly flow of subtropical moisture into eastern North America. The strength of the southerly flow is critical in producing large precipitation rates. The favorable synoptic structure is established by the start of the EPR, moves very slowly eastward until the middle of the EPR, and then travels faster eastward by the end of the EPR. The persistence of midlatitude ridges and the long-wavelength and slow-moving nature of the synoptic structure are critical to the longevity of EPRs. The latent heat release associated with moisture transport and ascent in cyclones provides a feedback mechanism contributing to the persistence. MJO phase 3 is favored before the EPR start, while phases 4 and 5 are favored during the EPR. During EPRs, there is no significant preference for El Niño or La Niña conditions, but a negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is favored. Significance Statement Cool-season extreme precipitation regimes often lead to flooding and other societal impacts and represent a significant forecast challenge. We analyze large-scale weather patterns and physical mechanisms in the North Pacific and North America contributing to the occurrence and persistence of extreme precipitation regimes. Recognizing them could promote their predictability since the North Pacific is a climatologically favored area for persistent anomalous large-scale weather patterns. The regimes are characterized by an unusually slow-moving and persistent large-scale weather pattern favoring the southerly flow of subtropical moisture into eastern North America. The persistence, size, and slow-moving nature of the weather pattern are critical to the regimes’ longevity. Storms tracking on the west of high pressure areas provide a feedback mechanism that helps maintain the regimes.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Performance and durability of passive direct formate fuel cells with Nafion- or PTFE-based cathodes - Shyu, Jin-Cherng; Khoiroh, Ikhwatinah; He, Jie-An (Fuel, 2025)
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Enhancing Research-to-Operations in Hydrological Forecasting: Innovations across Scales and Horizons - Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.; Du, Yiheng; Bennett, James; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Chang, Annie Y. Y.; Crochemore, Louise; Dasgupta, Antara; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Luterbacher, Jürg; Pappenberger, Florian; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Slater, Louise; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025)
Abstract Over the past 20 years, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) international community of practice has advanced the science and practice of hydrological ensemble prediction and its application in impact- and risk-based decision-making, fostering innovations through cutting-edge techniques and data that enhance water-related sectors. Here, we present insights from those 20 years on the key priorities for (co)creating broadly applicable hydrological forecasting systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons. We highlight the advancement of hydrological forecasting chains through rigorous data management that incorporates diverse, high-quality data sources, data assimilation techniques, and the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to improve predictive accuracy. HEPEX has played a critical role in enhancing the reliability of water resources and water-related risk management globally by standardizing ensemble forecasting. This effort complements HEPEX’s broader initiative to strengthen research to operations, making innovative forecasting solutions both practical and accessible. Additionally, efforts have been made toward supporting the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative through developing robust and reliable early warning systems by means of global training, education and capacity development, and the sharing of technology. Finally, we note that the integration of advanced science, user-centric methods, and global collaboration can provide a solid framework for improving the prediction and management of hydrological extremes, aligning forecasting systems with the dynamic needs of water resource and risk management in a changing climate. To effectively meet future demands, it is crucial to accelerate the integration of innovative science within operational frameworks, fostering adaptable and resilient hydrological forecasting systems globally.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

HurricaneLog: A serious game for data collection and analysis of hurricane preparedness and response operations - Correia Pereira, Thiago; Aloise, Daniel; Rancourt, Marie-Ève (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2025)
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

The Needs, Challenges, and Priorities for Advancing Global Flood Research - Samadi, Vidya; Fowler, Hayley J.; Lamond, Jessica; Wagener, Thorsten; Brunner, Manuela; Gourley, Jonathan; Moradkhani, Hamid; Popescu, Ioana; Wasko, Conrad; Wright, Daniel; Wu, Huan; Zhang, Ke; et al. (WIREs Water, 2025)
ABSTRACT In recent years, numerous flood events have caused loss of life, widespread disruption, and damage across the globe. These devastating impacts highlight the importance of a better understanding of flood generating processes, their impacts, and their variability under climate and landscape changes. Here, we argue that the ability to better model flooding is underpinned by the grand challenge of understanding flood generation mechanisms and potential impacts. To address this challenge, the World Meteorological Organization‐Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) aims to establish a Global Flood Crosscutting project to propagate flood modeling and research knowledge across regions and to synthesize results at the global scale. This paper outlines a framework for understanding the dynamics and impacts of runoff generation processes and a rationale for the role of a Global Flood Crosscutting project to address these challenges. Within this Global Flood Crosscutting project, we will establish a common terminology and methods to enable the global research community to exchange knowledge and experiences, and to design experiments toward developing actionable recommendations for more effective flood management practices and policies for improved resilience. This harmonization of rich perspectives across disciplines will foster the co‐production of knowledge primed to advance flood research, particularly in the current period of heightened climate variability and rapid change. It will create a new transdisciplinary paradigm for flood science, wherein different dimensions of mechanistic understanding and processes are rigorously considered alongside socioeconomic impacts, early warning communications, and longer‐term adaptation to alleviate flood risks in society.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Projecting climate and socioeconomic contributions to global flood-induced displacements using a data-driven approach - Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Boudreault, Mathieu; Carozza, David A. (Natural Hazards, 2025)
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Full-scale characterization of the effects of a bioretention system on water quality and quantity following the replacement of a mixed stormwater and combined sewer system - Le Cauchois, Pia; Doucet, Samuel; Bouattour, Ons; McQuaid, Natasha; Beral, Henry; Kõiv-Vainik, Margit; Bichai, Françoise; McCarthy, David; St-Laurent, Julien; Dagenais, Danielle; Bennekrela, Nesrine; Guerra, Juan; et al. (Blue-Green Systems, 2025)
ABSTRACT Urbanization is leading to more frequent flooding as cities have more impervious surfaces and runoff exceeds the capacity of combined sewer systems. In heavy rainfall, contaminated excess water is discharged into the natural environment, damaging ecosystems and threatening drinking water sources. To address these challenges aggravated by climate change, urban blue-green water management systems, such as bioretention cells, are increasingly being adopted. Bioretention cells use substrate and plants adapted to the climate to manage rainwater. They form shallow depressions, allowing infiltration, storage, and gradual evacuation of runoff. In 2018, the City of Trois-Rivières (Québec, Canada) installed 54 bioretention cells along a residential street, several of which were equipped with access points to monitor performance. Groundwater quality was monitored through the installation of piezometers to detect potential contamination. This large-scale project aimed to improve stormwater quality and reduce sewer flows. The studied bioretention cells reduced the flow and generally improved water quality entering the sewer system, as well as the quality of stormwater, with some exceptions. Higher outflow concentrations were observed for contaminants such as manganese and nitrate. The results of this initiative provide useful recommendations for similar projects for urban climate change adaptation.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Impacts of Adjusting Solid Precipitation Amounts in the Canadian Precipitation Analysis System - Aubry, Catherine; Bélair, Stéphane; Thériault, Julie M.; Mekis, Eva; Feng, Pei-Ning; Lespinas, Franck; Khedhaouiria, Dikra; Beaudry, Florence (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2025)
Abstract Real-time precipitation data are essential for weather forecasting, flood prediction, drought monitoring, irrigation, fire prevention, and hydroelectric management. To optimize these activities, reliable precipitation estimates are crucial. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) leads the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) project, providing near-real-time precipitation estimates across North America. However, during winter, CaPA’s 6-hourly accuracy is limited because many automatic surface observations are not assimilated due to wind-induced gauge undercatch. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added value of adjusted hourly precipitation amounts for gauge undercatch due to wind speed in CaPA. A recent ECCC dataset of hourly precipitation measurements from automatic precipitation gauges across Canada is included in CaPA as part of this study. Precipitation amounts are adjusted based on several types of transfer functions, which convert measured precipitation into what high-quality equipment would have measured with reduced undercatch. First, there are no notable differences in CaPA when comparing the performance of the universal transfer function with that of several climate-specific transfer functions based on wind speed and air temperature. However, increasing solid precipitation amounts using a specific type of transfer function that depends on snowfall intensity rather than near-surface air temperature is more likely to improve CaPA’s precipitation estimates during the winter season. This improvement is more evident when the objective evaluation is performed with direct comparison with the Adjusted Daily Rainfall and Snowfall (AdjDlyRS) dataset.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Non-stationary and multivariate spring floods estimation of the Saint John River (eastern Canada) - Yousfi, Nawres; El Adlouni, Salah; Gachon, Philippe (Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2025)
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

The vertical premium: Relationship between relative height of properties from real flood elevation and housing prices - Kim, Youjung; Koo, Bon Woo; Lee, Sungmin (Cities, 2025)
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Inondations: pourra-t-on faire mieux la prochaine fois? - Maltais, Danielle; Gachon, Philippe; King, Suzanne; Raphoz, Marie; Ouarda, Taha (The Conversation, 2019)
Les inondations causent de lourds dommages tant économiques, sociaux qu'environnementaux, en plus d'avoir des effets sur la santé physique et psychologique des sinistrés.

Météo: les Américains rendent nos cieux plus incertains - Soleil, Pascale Lévesque, Le (Le Soleil, 2025)
Orages violents, pluies diluviennes, records battus à Québec comme à Montréal: l'été 2025 rappelle combien les prévisions météo sont essentielles. Selon des experts, les récentes coupes budgétaires dans les agences américaines pourraient être de mauvais augure chez nous.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

The anatomy of a flash flood: Why the Texas flood was so deadly - Bonakdari, Hossein (The Conversation, 2025)
Understanding the combination of meteorological, geomorphological and hydrological factors that led to the Texas flood could help prevent future disasters.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

Les enjeux actuels sont mondiaux. Pour y faire face, il faut créer de véritables partenariats en recherche - Quirion, Rémi (The Conversation, 2025)
Dans un monde de plus en plus polarisé, où la diplomatie scientifique devient parfois la dernière ligne de dialogue entre nations, les partenariats entre chercheurs jouent un rôle critique.
Keywords: Infolettre_Ete_2025

The Impact of Flood Adaptation Measures on Affected Population’s Mental Health: A mixed method Scoping Review - El-Mousawi, Fatima; Ortiz, Ariel Mundo; Berkat, Rawda; Nasri, Bouchra (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2023)
AbstractThe frequency and severity of floods has increased in different regions of the world due to climate change. Although the impact of floods on human health has been extensively studied, the increase in the segments of the population that are likely to be impacted by floods in the future makes it necessary to examine how adaptation measures impact the mental health of individuals affected by these natural disasters. The goal of this scoping review is to document the existing studies on flood adaptation measures and their impact on the mental health of affected populations, in order to identify the best preventive strategies as well as limitations that deserve further exploration. This study employed the methodology of the PRISMA-ScR extension for scoping reviews to systematically search the databases Medline and Web of Science to identify studies that examined the impact of adaptation measures on the mental health of flood victims. The database queries resulted in a total of 857 records from both databases. Following two rounds of screening, 9 studies were included for full-text analysis. Most of the analyzed studies sought to identify the factors that drive resilience in flood victims, particularly in the context of social capital (6 studies), whereas the remaining studies analyzed the impact of external interventions on the mental health of flood victims, either from preventive or post-disaster measures (3 studies). There is a very limited number of studies that analyze the impact of adaptation measures on the mental health of populations and individuals affected by floods, which complicates the generalizability of their findings. There is a need for public health policies and guidelines for the development of flood adaptation measures that adequately consider a social component that can be used to support the mental health of flood victims.

Communicating flood risk: Looking back and forward at traditional and social media outlets - Feldman, David; Contreras, Santina; Karlin, Beth; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett; Houston, Douglas; Cheung, Wing; Goodrich, Kristen; Reyes, Abigail; Serrano, Kimberly; Schubert, Jochen; et al. (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2016)
The communication of information about natural hazard risks to the public is a difficult task for decision makers. Research suggests that newer forms of technology present useful options for building disaster resilience. However, how effectively these newer forms of media can be used to inform populations of the potential hazard risks in their community remains unclear. This research uses primary data from an in-person survey of 164 residents of Newport Beach, California during the spring of 2014 to ascertain the current and preferred mechanisms through which individuals receive information on flood risks in their community. Factor analysis of survey data identified two predominant routes of dissemination for risk information: older traditional media and newer social media sources. A logistic regression model was specified to identify predictors for choosing a particular communication route. This analysis revealed that age is the central factor in predicting the sources people use to receive risk information. We follow the analysis by discussing this finding and its policy implications.

« J’ai juste besoin de parler » : les histoires de femmes sinistrées au coeur de la recherche sur les conséquences psychosociales des inondations - Leclerc, Typhaine; Lessard, Lily; Saint-Charles, Johanne (Le Climatoscope, 2024)
Les récits médiatiques et culturels qui circulent sur les événements météorologiques extrêmes (EME) ne sont pas représentatifs de l’ensemble des expériences de personnes sinistrées. Les groupes qui en subissent les conséquences les plus sévères tendent à être ceux que l’on « entend » le moins dans l’espace public. L’approche de recherche narrative permet de documenter une diversité d’expériences d’EME pour en tracer un panorama plus complet. Adoptant une approche narrative féministe, notre recherche a été menée auprès de femmes touchées par des inondations en Beauce. Des extraits d’entrevues semi-directives menées avec des femmes sinistrées offrent une illustration des conséquences psychosociales entrainées par les inondations. Les forces des participantes et certains défis rencontrés en lien avec leurs rôles dans la famille et la communauté sont aussi abordés. La méthode adoptée a permis de collecter des récits d’expérience riches et singuliers qui rendent plus tangibles les effets différenciés des EME. Tenir compte de cette diversité d’expériences favoriserait une prise en charge plus équitable des personnes sinistrées à court, moyen et long terme.

Influence of PDO and ENSO on Annual Flood Frequency of the Canadian Prairie Rivers - Gurrapu, Sunil; Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques; Sauchyn, David J.; Hodder, Kyle R. (Unpublished, 2014)

Éduquer aux risques dès l’école primaire: de la représentation à la conscientisation - Julien, Marie-Pierre; Bédouret, David; Chalmeau, Raphaël; Mainar, Christine Vergnolle; Léna, Jean-Yves; Calvet, Anne (VertigO - la revue électronique en sciences de l'environnement, 2021)
Le territoire de la vallée du Gave de Gavarnie a connu un épisode d’inondation/crue particulièrement catastrophique en 2013, ayant entrainé de forts dégâts matériels et des pertes humaines. Dans ce contexte, la culture du risque est un enjeu tant pour les acteurs de la gestion de ce territoire que pour les citoyens, d’autant plus que les risques présents y sont multiples (avalanches, glissements de terrain et séismes). Dans cette perspective, l’école peut jouer un rôle déterminant à travers la mise en place de projets d’éducations au(x) risque(s). Ce type d’éducation doit commencer par la perception et la conscience du (des) risque(s), rendues possibles par le vécu et/ou par la culture du groupe dans lequel l’élève vit. Cette étude a pour objectif d’examiner les représentations et la perception du risque des élèves d’une école élémentaire française située sur une commune fortement impactée par cette crue, et l’évolution de ces représentations et cette perception un an après la mise en œuvre du projet éducatif. Les résultats montrent une représentation plurielle du risque par les élèves avec des différences entre classes. La classe de CP-CE (enfants âgés de 6 à 8 ans) associe essentiellement le risque à l’aléa naturel (avalanche, inondation…) alors que les élèves en CM (enfants âgés de 9 à 10 ans) sont centrés sur ce qui pourrait leur arriver (accident, maladie…). Le risque inondation/crue est dans un premier temps très peu évoqué dans les représentations des élèves, mais lorsque les activités pédagogiques permettent de contextualiser cette notion sur leur territoire, il est alors plus fortement perçu.

Development of an under-ice river discharge forecasting system in Delft-Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS) for the Chaudière River based on a coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling approach - Usman, Kh Rahat; Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Ghobrial, Tadros; Anctil, François; van Loenen, Arnejan (Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2024)
Abstract. Year-round river discharge estimation and forecasting is a critical component of sustainable water resource management. However, in cold climate regions such as Canada, this basic task gets intricated due to the challenge of river ice conditions. River ice conditions are dynamic and can change quickly in a short period of time. This dynamic nature makes river ice conditions difficult to forecast. Moreover, the observation of under-ice river discharge also remains a challenge since no reliable method for its estimation has been developed till date. It is therefore an active field of research and development. The integration of river ice hydraulic models in forecasting systems has remained relatively uncommon. The current study has two main objectives: first is to demonstrate the development and capabilities of a river ice forecasting system based on coupled hydrological and hydraulic modelling approach for the Chaudière River in Québec; and second is to assess its functionality over selected winter events. The forecasting system is developed within a well-known operational forecasting platform: the Delft Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS). The current configuration of the systems integrates (i) meteorological products such as the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS); (ii) a hydrological module implemented through the HydrOlOgical Prediction LAboratory (HOOPLA), a multi-model based hydrological modelling framework; and (iii) hydraulic module implemented through a 1D steady and unsteady HEC-RAS river ice models. The system produces ensemble forecasts for discharge and water level and provides flexibility to modify various dynamic parameters within the modelling chain such as discharge timeseries, ice thickness, ice roughness as well as carryout hindcasting experiments in a batch production way. Performance of the coupled modelling approach was assessed using “Perfect forecast” over winter events between 2020 and 2023 winter seasons. The root mean square error (RMSE) and percent bias (Pbias) metrics were calculated. The hydrologic module of the system showed significant deviations from the observations. These deviations could be explained by the inherent uncertainty in the under-ice discharge estimates as well as uncertainty in the modelling chain. The hydraulic module of the system performed better and the Pbias was within ±10 %.

Flood Risk and Community Resilience: An Interdisciplinary Approach - McEwen, Lindsey (2024)
This book details the impact of flooding on our environment, and the ways in which communities, and those that work with them, can act to manage the associated risks. Flooding is an increasingly significant environmental hazard which inflicts major costs to the economies and livelihoods of developed countries. This book explores how local communities can identify, manage, and adapt to the ever-increasing damage flooding causes. Focusing on the future role of local communities, the benefits and c

A Flood Risk Management Model to Identify Optimal Defence Policies in Coastal Areas Considering Uncertainties in Climate Projections - Cioffi, Francesco; De Bonis Trapella, Alessandro; Giannini, Mario; Lall, Upmanu (Water, 2022)
Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall, sea storm surge, or a combination of the two. Recent studies project higher intensity and frequency of heavy rains, and progressive sea level rise continuing over the next decades. Pre-emptive and optimal flood defense policies that adaptively address climate change are needed. However, future climate projections have significant uncertainty due to multiple factors: (a) future CO2 emission scenarios; (b) uncertainties in climate modelling; (c) discount factor changes due to market fluctuations; (d) uncertain migration and population growth dynamics. Here, a methodology is proposed to identify the optimal design and timing of flood defense structures in which uncertainties in 21st century climate projections are explicitly considered probabilistically. A multi-objective optimization model is developed to minimize both the cost of the flood defence infrastructure system and the flooding hydraulic risk expressed by Expected Annual Damage (EAD). The decision variables of the multi-objective optimization problem are the size of defence system and the timing of implementation. The model accounts for the joint probability density functions of extreme rainfall, storm surge and sea level rise, as well as the damages, which are determined dynamically by the defence system state considering the probability and consequences of system failure, using a water depth–damage curve related to the land use (Corine Land Cover); water depth due to flooding are calculated by hydraulic model. A new dominant sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) is used to solve the multi-objective problem optimization. A case study is presented for the Pontina Plain (Lazio Italy), a coastal region, originally a swamp reclaimed about a hundred years ago, that is rich in urban centers and farms. A set of optimal adaptation policies, quantifying size and timing of flood defence constructions for different climate scenarios and belonging to the Pareto curve obtained by the NSGAII are identified for such a case study to mitigate the risk of flooding and to aid decision makers.

Robust Flood Risk Management Strategies Through Bayesian Estimation and Multi-objective Optimization - Sobhaniyeh, Zahra; Niksokhan, Mohammad Hossein; Omidvar, Babak; Gaskin, Susan (International Journal of Environmental Research, 2021)
Management and control of flood hazards, the most frequent natural disaster worldwide, has become a greater challenge due to the increasingly unpredictable precipitation and runoff due to climate change. As many rural areas in Iran are vulnerable to flash floods occurring mainly in the spring, more accurate plans are needed to help reduce the risk of related damage. To address this concern, a robust methodology using multi-objective optimization is proposed, which incorporates the large uncertainties in the modeling parameters defining the risk of flooding. The proposed framework has been implemented in the upper catchment of the Taleghanrood river in the Taleghan district in Iran, which is vulnerable to flooding. The results provide a detailed performance assessment of alternative infrastructure designs, which will help to increase the efficiency of flood management strategies. The optimization uses multi-criteria optimization evolutionary algorithms (MOEA) and Bayesian estimation concepts. The resulting specific design plans, as levees’ height increases over a 50-year time horizon, for controlling floods under given scenarios reflect the uncertainty in the parameters.

Investigating incomplete mixing models in cross junctions under real-world conditions of water distribution networks - Yousefian, Reza; Duchesne, Sophie; Schwarz, Pierre-Olivier (Water Supply, 2024)
Questions have been raised about the correctness of water quality models with complete mixing assumptions in cross junctions of water distribution systems. Recent developments in the mixing phenomenon within cross junctions of water distribution networks (WDNs) have heightened the need for evaluating the existing incomplete mixing models under real-world conditions. Therefore, in this study, two cross junctions with pipe diameters of 100 Â 100 Â 100 Â 100 mm and 150 Â 150 Â 150 Â 150 mm were employed in laboratory experiments to evaluate six existing incomplete mixing models for 25 ﬂow rate scenarios ranging between 1.5 and 3.0 L/s. It was observed that within the same ﬂow rate scenario, the degree of mixing in a cross junction with a pipe relative roughness of 6.00 Â 10À5 (pipe diameter of 25 mm) was higher than that in a cross junction with a pipe relative roughness of 3.00 Â 10À5 (pipe diameter of 50 mm) and smaller. Considering the real-world size of pipes in evaluating the incomplete mixing models showed that two incomplete mixing models, AZRED and the one by Shao et al., had the best accordance with the results of the laboratory experiments.

Integration of Incomplete Mixing at Junctions of Water Distribution Networks in Contamination Source Identification Tools - Yousefian, Reza; Émond, Laurent; Duchesne, Sophie (Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2025)
The water quality models used in contamination source identification (CSI) tools assume complete mixing at the junctions of drinking water distribution networks. Two extensions of the contamination status algorithm (CSA)—a CSI tool that employs water quality models in a reverse-time manner—were accordingly developed in this study, one assuming complete mixing (CSA-CMX) and the other assuming incomplete mixing (CSA-IMX) at cross-junctions. Both algorithms identified contamination sources based on the results of grab sampling at iteratively suggested locations. The performances of CSA-CMX and CSA-IMX were evaluated through laboratory experiments using three contamination identification problems: CSA-IMX identified the contamination source in all three problems, whereas CSA-CMX identified the contamination source in only one. Furthermore, the specificity (i.e., the ability to distinguish the real contamination source from other possible contamination sources) was higher for CSA-IMX than for CSA-CMX in two of the three problems. Therefore, the incomplete mixing assumption was confirmed to be a crucial factor in CSI tools.

Evaluating real-time control of stormwater drainage network and green stormwater infrastructure for enhancing flooding resilience under future rainfall projections - Li, Jiada; Burian, Steven J. (Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2023)
Traditional stormwater control measures are designed to handle system loadings induced by fixed-size storm events. However, climate change is predicted to alter the frequency and intensity of flooding events, stimulating the need to explore another more adaptive flooding solution like real-time control (RTC). This study assesses the performance of RTC to mitigate impacts of climate change on urban flooding resilience. A simulated, yet realistic, urban drainage system in Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, shows that RTC improves the flooding resilience by up to 17% under climatic rainfall changes. Compared with green stormwater infrastructure (GSI), RTC exhibits a lower resistibility, lower flooding failure level, and higher recovery rate in system performance curves. Results articulate that keeping RTC's performance consistent under ‘back-to-back’ storms requires a tradeoff between upstream dynamical operation and downstream flooding functionality loss. This research suggests that RTC provides a path towards smart and resilient stormwater management strategy.

Adaptation of Dual Drainage to Control Flooding and Enhance Combined Sewer Systems in Highly Urbanized Areas - Ossa Ossa, Juan Esteban; Duchesne, Sophie; Pelletier, Geneviève (2024)
Combined sewer surcharges in densely urbanized areas have become more frequent due to the expansion of impervious surfaces and intensified precipitation caused by climate change. These surcharges can generate system overflows, causing urban flooding and pollution of urban areas. This paper presents a novel methodology to mitigate sewer system surcharges and control surface water. In this methodology, flow control devices and urban landscape retrofitting are proposed as strategies to reduce water inflow into the sewer network and manage excess water on the surface during extreme rainfall events. For this purpose, a 1D/2D dual drainage model was developed for two case studies located in Montreal, Canada. Applying the proposed methodology to these two sites led to a reduction of the volume of wastewater overflows by 100% and 86%, and a decrease in the number of surface overflows by 100% and 71%, respectively, at the two sites for a 100-year return period 3-h Chicago design rainfall. It also controlled the extent of flooding, reduced the volume of uncontrolled surface floods by 78% and 80% and decreased flooded areas by 68% and 42%, respectively, at the two sites for the same design rainfall.

New Sensitivity Indices of a 2D Flood Inundation Model Using Gauss Quadrature Sampling - Oubennaceur, Khalid; Chokmani, Karem; Nastev, Miroslav; Gauthier, Yves; Poulin, Jimmy; Tanguy, Marion; Raymond, Sebastien; Lhissou, Rachid (Geosciences, 2019)
A new method for sensitivity analysis of water depths is presented based on a two-dimensional hydraulic model as a convenient and cost-effective alternative to Monte Carlo simulations. The method involves perturbation of the probability distribution of input variables. A relative sensitivity index is calculated for each variable, using the Gauss quadrature sampling, thus limiting the number of runs of the hydraulic model. The variable-related highest variation of the expected water depths is considered to be the most influential. The proposed method proved particularly efficient, requiring less information to describe model inputs and fewer model executions to calculate the sensitivity index. It was tested over a 45 km long reach of the Richelieu River, Canada. A 2D hydraulic model was used to solve the shallow water equations (SWE). Three input variables were considered: Flow rate, Manning’s coefficient, and topography of a shoal within the considered reach. Four flow scenarios were simulated with discharge rates of 759, 824, 936, and 1113 m 3 / s . The results show that the predicted water depths were most sensitive to the topography of the shoal, whereas the sensitivity indices of Manning’s coefficient and the flow rate were comparatively lower. These results are important for making better hydraulic models, taking into account the sensitivity analysis.

Understanding Flood Risk Perception: A Case Study from Canada - Oubennaceur, Khalid; Chokmani, Karem; Lessard, Florence; Gauthier, Yves; Baltazar, Catherine; Toussaint, Jean-Patrick (Sustainability, 2022)
In recent years, understanding and improving the perception of flood risk has become an important aspect of flood risk management and flood risk reduction policies. The aim of this study was to explore perceptions of flood risk in the Petite Nation River watershed, located in southern Quebec, Canada. A survey was conducted with 130 residents living on a floodplain in this river watershed, which had been affected by floods in the spring of 2017. Participants were asked about different aspects related to flood risk, such as the flood hazard experience, the physical changes occurring in the environment, climate change, information accessibility, flood risk governance, adaptation measures, and finally the perception of losses. An analysis of these factors provided perspectives for improving flood risk communication and increasing the public awareness of flood risk. The results indicated that the analyzed aspects are potentially important in terms of risk perception and showed that the flood risk perceptions varied for each aspect analyzed. In general, the information regarding flood risk management is available and generally understandable, and the level of confidence was good towards most authorities. However, the experiences of flood risk and the consequences of climate change on floods were not clear among the respondents. Regarding the adaptation measures, the majority of participants tended to consider non-structural adaptation measures as being more relevant than structural ones. Moreover, the long-term consequences of flooding on property values are of highest concern. These results provide a snapshot of citizens’ risk perceptions and their opinions on topics that are directly related to such risks.

Flood Risk Communication Using ArcGIS StoryMaps - Oubennaceur, Khalid; Chokmani, Karem; El Alem, Anas; Gauthier, Yves (Hydrology, 2021)
In Canada, flooding is the most common and costly natural hazard. Flooding events significantly impact communities, damage infrastructures and threaten public security. Communication, as part of a flood risk management strategy, is an essential means of countering these threats. It is therefore important to develop new and innovative tools to communicate the flood risk with citizens. From this perspective, the use of story maps can be very effectively implemented for a broad audience, particularly to stakeholders. This paper details how an interactive web-based story map was set up to communicate current and future flood risks in the Petite-Nation River watershed, Quebec (Canada). This web technology application combines informative texts and interactive maps on current and future flood risks in the Petite-Nation River watershed. Flood risk and climate maps were generated using the GARI tool, implemented using a geographic information system (GIS) supported by ArcGIS Online (Esri). Three climate change scenarios developed by the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Quebec were used to visualize potential future impacts. This study concluded that our story map is an efficient flood hazard communication tool. The assets of this interactive web mapping tool are numerous, namely user-friendly mapping, use and interaction, and customizable displays.

Flood inundation modeling in ungauged basins using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles imagery - Yavari, Adel; Homayouni, Saeid; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Chokmani, Karem (Earth Observation and Geomatics Engineering, 2020)
This paper presents a new framework for floodplain inundation modeling in an ungauged basin using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) imagery. This method is based on the integrated analysis of high-resolution ortho-images and elevation data produced by the structure from motion (SfM) technology. To this end, the Flood-Level Marks (FLMs) were created from high-resolution UAV ortho-images and compared to the flood inundated areas simulated using the HEC-RAS hydraulic model. The flood quantiles for 25, 50, 100, and 200 return periods were then estimated by synthetic hydrographs using the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The proposed method was applied to UAV image data collected from the Khosban village, in Taleghan County, Iran, in the ungauged sub-basin of the Khosban River. The study area is located along one kilometre of the river in the middle of the village. The results showed that the flood inundation areas modeled by the HEC-RAS were 33%, 19%, and 8% less than those estimated from the UAV’s FLMs for 25, 50, and 100 years return periods, respectively. For return periods of 200 years, this difference was overestimated by more than 6%, compared to the UAV’s FLM. The maximum flood depth in our four proposed scenarios of hydraulic models varied between 2.33 to 2.83 meters. These analyses showed that this method, based on the UAV imagery, is well suited to improve the hydraulic modeling for seasonal inundation in ungauged rivers, thus providing reliable support to flood mitigation strategies

Imaging Floods and Glacier Geohazards with Remote Sensing - Cigna, Francesca; Xie, Hongjie (Remote Sensing, 2020)
Geohazards associated with the dynamics of the liquid and solid water of the Earth’s hydrosphere, such as floods and glacial processes, may pose significant risks to populations, activities and properties [...]

Development of an approach based on historical Landsat data for delineating Canadian flood zones at different return periods - Chokmani, Karem; Zidi, Haythem; El Alem, Anas; Gill-Fortin, Jasmin (EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2024)
The study addresses the need for flood risk anticipation and planning, through the development of a flood zone mapping approach for different return periods, in order to best prevent and protect populations. Today, traditional methods are too costly, too slow or require too many requirements to be applied over large areas. As part of a project funded by the Canadian Space Agency, Geosapiens and the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique set themselves the goal of designing an automatic process to generate water presence maps for different return periods at a resolution of 30 m, based on the historical database of Landsat missions from 1982 to the present day. This involved the design, implementation and training of a deep learning algorithm model based on the U-Net architecture for the detection of water pixels in Landsat imagery. The resulting maps were used as the basis for applying a frequency analysis model to fit a probability of occurrence function for the presence of water at each pixel. The frequency analysis data were then used to obtain maps of water occurrence at different return preiods such as 2, 5 and 20 years.

The Use of Remotely Sensed Information within a Flood Risk Management and Analysis Tool (GARI) - Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Tanguy, Marion; Poulin, Jimmy; Gauthier, Yves; Latapie, Romain; Bernier, Monique (IGARSS 2019 - 2019 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2019)
Floods are the most common natural hazard worldwide. GARI is a flood risk management and analysis tool that is being developed by the Environmental and Nordic Remote Sensing Group (TENOR) of INRS in Quebec City (Canada). Beyond mapping the flooded areas and water levels, GARI allows for the estimation, analysis and visualization of flood risks for individuals, residential buildings, and population. Information can therefore be used during the different phases of flood risk management. In the operational phase, GARI can use satellite radar images to map in near real-time the flooded areas and water levels. It uses an innovative approach that combines Radarsat-2 and hydraulic data, specifically flood return period data. Information from the GARI enable municipalities and individuals to anticipate the impacts of a flood in a given area, to mitigate these impacts, to prepare, and to better coordinate their actions during a flood.

Flood Models: An Exploratory Analysis and Research Trends - Morante-Carballo, Fernando; Montalván-Burbano, Néstor; Arias-Hidalgo, Mijaíl; Domínguez-Granda, Luis; Apolo-Masache, Boris; Carrión-Mero, Paúl (Water, 2022)
Floods can be caused by heavy rainfall and the consequent overflow of rivers, causing low-lying areas to be affected. Populated regions close to riverbeds are the sectors most affected by these disasters, which requires modelling studies to generate different scenarios. The work focuses on the bibliometric analysis of the search for topics such as flood modelling focused on the research, risk, and assessment of these catastrophes, aiming to determine new trends and tools for their application in the prevention of these natural disasters. The methodology consists of: (i) search criteria and database selection, (ii) pre-processing of the selected data and software, and (iii) analysis and interpretation of the results. The results show a wide range of studies for dimensional analysis in different flood scenarios, which greatly benefit the development of flood prevention and risk strategies. In addition, this work provides insight into the different types of software and modelling for flood analysis and simulation and the various trends and applications for future modelling.

A PCA spatial pattern based artificial neural network downscaling model for urban flood hazard assessment - Carreau, J.; Guinot, V. (Advances in Water Resources, 2021)

Impacts et coûts indirects des stresseurs secondaires sur la santé biopsychosociale des sinistrés des inondations de 2019 - Maltais, Danielle; Bourdeau-Brien, Michaël; Gilbert, Simon; Normandin, Julie-Maude; Tchassem Pinlap, Jonas; Généreux, Mélissa; Landaverde, Elsa; Boudreault, Mathieu (Chaire de recherche Événements traumatiques, santé mentale et résilience de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 2023)
Les inondations de 2017 et 2019 au Québec ont affecté respectivement 293 et 240 municipalités. Ces inondations ont généré une cascade d’évènements stressants (stresseurs primaires et secondaires) qui ont eu des effets sur la santé mentale de la population et retardé le processus de rétablissement des individus. Cette période de rétablissement peut s’échelonner sur plusieurs mois voire plusieurs années. Cette étude s’inscrit dans la spécificité de la recherche mixte mise de l’avant à travers trois stratégies de recherche, réalisées de façon séquentielle : 1) sondage populationnelle réalisé auprès de 680 personnes, 2) analyse de documents produits par les organisations participant au processus de rétablissement social des sinistrés, ou sur des analyses externes portant sur ces interventions de rétablissement et 3) entrevues semi-dirigées auprès de 15 propriétaires occupants ayant complété une demande d’indemnisation à la suite des inondations de 2019 et auprès de 11 professionnels et gestionnaires participant au processus de rétablissement social. Les entrevues semi-dirigées et les questionnaires complétés par les personnes sinistrées lors des inondations de 2019 démontrent que les principales sources de stress ayant des impacts sur la santé et le bien-être des répondants sont : 1) l’absence d’avertissement et la vitesse de la montée des eaux; 2) l’obligation de se relocaliser et la peur d’être victime de pillage; 3) le manque de solidarité et d’empathie de la part de certains employés du MSP; 4) la gestion des conflits familiaux; 5) la gestion de problèmes de santé nouveaux ou préexistants; 6) la complexité des demandes d’indemnisation; 7) la lourdeur et les délais des travaux de nettoyage ou de restauration; 8) les indemnités inférieures aux coûts engendrés par l’inondation; 9) les pertes matérielles subies, particulièrement ceux d’une valeur de plus de 50 000 $; et 10) la diminution anticipée de la valeur de sa résidence. À cela s’ajoute l’insatisfaction à l’égard du programme d’indemnisation du gouvernement du Québec (PGIAF) qui fait plus que doubler la prévalence des symptômes de stress post-traumatique. Les inondations entraînent également une perte de satisfaction ou de bien-être statistiquement significative. La valeur monétaire de cette perte de jouissance peut être exprimée en équivalent salaires. En moyenne, cette diminution du bien-être équivaut à une baisse de salaire de 60 000$ pour les individus ayant vécu une première inondation et à 100 000$ pour les individus ayant vécu de multiples inondations. Ces résultats suggèrent que les coûts indirects et intangibles représentent une part importante des dommages découlant des inondations. Ce projet de recherche vise également à analyser l’application du PGIAF et son influence sur les stresseurs vécus par les sinistrés dans le contexte de la pandémie de COVID-19. La principale recommandation de cette étude repose sur une analyse de documents, un sondage populationnel et des entrevues semi-dirigées. Ainsi, s’attaquer à la réduction de principaux stresseurs nécessite 1) d’améliorer la gouvernance du risque d’inondation, 2) d’intensifier la communication et le support aux sinistrés, et 3) de revoir les mécanismes d’indemnisation existants.

Global Asymmetries in the Influence of ENSO on Flood Risk Based on 1,600 Years of Hybrid Simulations - Del Rio Amador, L.; Boudreault, M.; Carozza, D. A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2023)
AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often considered as a source of long‐term predictability for extreme events via its teleconnection patterns. However, given that its characteristic cycle varies from two to 7 years, it is difficult to obtain statistically significant conclusions based on observational periods spanning only a few decades. To overcome this, we apply the global flood risk modeling framework developed by Carozza and Boudreault to an equivalent of 1,600 years of bias‐corrected General Circulation Model outputs. The results show substantial anomalies in flood occurrences and impacts for El Niño and La Niña when compared to the all‐year baseline. We were able to obtain a larger global coverage of statistically significant results than previous studies limited to observational data. Asymmetries in anomalies for both ENSO phases show a larger global influence of El Niño than La Niña on flood hazard and risk.

A data science approach to climate change risk assessment applied to pluvial flood occurrences for the United States and Canada - Bourget, Mathilde; Boudreault, Mathieu; Carozza, David A.; Boudreault, Jérémie; Raymond, Sébastien (ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 2024)
There is mounting pressure on (re)insurers to quantify the impacts of climate change, notably on the frequency and severity of claims due to weather events such as flooding. This is however a very challenging task for (re)insurers as it requires modeling at the scale of a portfolio and at a high enough spatial resolution to incorporate local climate change effects. In this paper, we introduce a data science approach to climate change risk assessment of pluvial flooding for insurance portfolios over Canada and the United States (US). The underlying flood occurrence model quantifies the financial impacts of short-term (12–48 h) precipitation dynamics over the present (2010–2030) and future climate (2040–2060) by leveraging statistical/machine learning and regional climate models. The flood occurrence model is designed for applications that do not require street-level precision as is often the case for scenario and trend analyses. It is applied at the full scale of Canada and the US over 10–25 km grids. Our analyses show that climate change and urbanization will typically increase losses over Canada and the US, while impacts are strongly heterogeneous from one state or province to another, or even within a territory. Portfolio applications highlight the importance for a (re)insurer to differentiate between future changes in hazard and exposure, as the latter may magnify or attenuate the impacts of climate change on losses.

Global Diversification of Natural Hazards: An analysis of the space- time dynamics of floods and tropical cyclones - Boudreault, M; Carozza, D (AXA-XL, 2019)

Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada - Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation (Public Safety Canada, 2022)

Incentivizing Flood Risk Reduction for Homeowners - Boudreault, M (Global Risk Institute, 2024)
Read the latest report from UQAM and GRI, looking at options to reduce flood risk for Canadian homeowners living in flood-prone areas.

A Global Flood Risk Modeling Framework Built With Climate Models and Machine Learning - Carozza, David A.; Boudreault, Mathieu (Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2021)
AbstractLarge scale flood risk analyses are fundamental to many applications requiring national or international overviews of flood risk. While large‐scale climate patterns such as teleconnections and climate change become important at this scale, it remains a challenge to represent the local hydrological cycle over various watersheds in a manner that is physically consistent with climate. As a result, global models tend to suffer from a lack of available scenarios and flexibility that are key for planners, relief organizations, regulators, and the financial services industry to analyze the socioeconomic, demographic, and climatic factors affecting exposure. Here we introduce a data‐driven, global, fast, flexible, and climate‐consistent flood risk modeling framework for applications that do not necessarily require high‐resolution flood mapping. We use statistical and machine learning methods to examine the relationship between historical flood occurrence and impact from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (1985–2017), and climatic, watershed, and socioeconomic factors for 4,734 HydroSHEDS watersheds globally. Using bias‐corrected output from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (1980–2020), and the fitted statistical relationships, we simulate 1 million years of events worldwide along with the population displaced in each event. We discuss potential applications of the model and present global flood hazard and risk maps. The main value of this global flood model lies in its ability to quickly simulate realistic flood events at a resolution that is useful for large‐scale socioeconomic and financial planning, yet we expect it to be useful to climate and natural hazard scientists who are interested in socioeconomic impacts of climate.

Climate, Spatial Dependence and Flood Risk: A U.S. - Erhardt, R; Boudreault, M; Carozza, D; Yu, K (Case Study. e-forum, Casualty Actuarial Society, 2022)

Multi-tracer approach to understand nitrate contamination and groundwater-surface water interactions in the Mediterranean coastal area of Guerbes-Senhadja, Algeria - Boumaiza, Lamine; Walter, Julien; Chesnaux, Romain; Huneau, Frédéric; Garel, Émilie; Erostate, Mélanie; Johannesson, Karen H.; Vystavna, Yuliya; Bougherira, Nabil; Bordeleau, Geneviève; Stotler, Randy L.; Blarasin, Mónica; et al. (Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 2022)

Evaluating potential impacts of industrial activities at depth on shallow groundwater: Holistic integration of results from multidisciplinary research in eastern Canada - Rivard, C.; Lavoie, D.; Bordeleau, G.; Huchet, F.; Lefebvre, R.; Duchesne, M.J.; Pinet, N.; Séjourné, S.; Crow, H.; Bellefleur, G.; Brake, V.; Hinds, S. (Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 2024)

Saline and hydrocarbon-bearing fluids detected in shallow aquifers of southern New Brunswick, Canada: Natural occurrence, or deep migration along faults and industrial wellbores? - Bordeleau, G.; Lavoie, D.; Rivard, C.; Pinet, N.; Barton, D.; Hinds, S.; Al, Tom (Science of The Total Environment, 2024)

Large‐scale turbulent mixing at a mesoscale confluence assessed through drone imagery and eddy‐resolved modelling - Duguay, Jason; Biron, Pascale; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2022)
Abstract Confluences are sites of intense turbulent mixing in fluvial systems. The large‐scale turbulent structures largely responsible for this mixing have been proposed to fall into three main classes: vertically orientated (Kelvin–Helmholtz) vortices, secondary flow helical cells and smaller, strongly coherent streamwise‐orientated vortices. Little is known concerning the prevalence and causal mechanisms of each class, their interactions with one another and their respective contributions to mixing. Historically, mixing processes have largely been interpreted through statistical moments derived from sparse pointwise flow field and passive scalar transport measurements, causing the contribution of the instantaneous flow field to be largely overlooked. To overcome the limited spatiotemporal resolution of traditional methods, herein we analyse aerial video of large‐scale turbulent structures made visible by turbidity gradients present along the mixing interface of a mesoscale confluence and complement our findings with eddy‐resolved numerical modelling. The fast, shallow main channel (Mitis) separates over the crest of the scour hole's avalanche face prior to colliding with the slow, deep tributary (Neigette), resulting in a streamwise‐orientated separation cell in the lee of the avalanche face. Nascent large‐scale Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities form along the collision zone and expand as the high‐momentum, separated near‐surface flow of the Mitis pushes into them. Simultaneously, the strong downwelling of the Mitis is accompanied by strong upwelling of the Neigette. The upwelling Neigette results in ∼50% of the Neigette's discharge crossing the mixing interface over the short collision zone. Helical cells were not observed at the confluence. However, the downwelling Mitis, upwelling Neigette and separation cell interact to generate considerable streamwise vorticity on the Mitis side of the mixing interface. This streamwise vorticity is strongly coupled to the large‐scale Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities, which greatly enhances mixing. Comparably complex interactions between large‐scale Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities and coherent streamwise vortices are expected at other typical asymmetric confluences exhibiting a pronounced scour hole.

Climate‐Driven Variations in Nitrogen Retention From a Riverine Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Meadow - Botrel, M.; Hudon, C.; Heffernan, J. B.; Biron, P. M.; Maranger, R. (Water Resources Research, 2022)
Abstract Large rivers can retain a substantial amount of nitrogen (N), particularly in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) meadows that may act as disproportionate control points for N retention. However, the temporal variation of N retention in large rivers remains unknown since past measurements were snapshots in time. Using high‐frequency plants and NO 3 − measurements over the summers 2012–2017, we investigated how the climate variation influenced N retention in a SAV meadow (∼10 km 2 ) at the confluence zone of two agricultural tributaries entering the St. Lawrence River. Distinctive combinations of water temperature and level were recorded between years, ranging from extreme hot‐low (2012) and cold‐high (2017) summers (2°C and 1.4 m interannual range). Using an indicator of SAV biomass, we found that these extreme hot‐low and cold‐high years had reduced biomass compared to hot summers with intermediate levels. In addition, changes in main stem water levels were asynchronous with the tributary discharges that controlled NO 3 − inputs at the confluence. We estimated daily N uptake rates from a moored NO 3 − sensor and partitioned these into assimilatory and dissimilatory pathways. Measured rates were variable but among the highest reported in rivers (median 576 mg N m −2 d −1 , range 60–3,893 mg N m −2 d −1 ) and SAV biomass promoted greater proportional retention and permanent N loss through denitrification. We estimated that the SAV meadow could retain up to 0.8 kt N per year and 87% of N inputs, but this valuable ecosystem service is contingent on how climate variations modulate both N loads and SAV biomass. , Plain Language Summary Large rivers remove significant amounts of nitrogen pollution generated by humans in waste waters and from fertilizers applied to agricultural lands. Underwater meadows of aquatic plants remove nitrogen particularly well. To keep the river clean, plants use the nitrogen themselves and promote conditions where bacteria can convert this pollution into a gas typically found in air. Measuring nitrogen removal in rivers is really difficult, and we do not know how climate conditions influence this removal or plant abundance. We successfully measured nitrogen pollution removal from an underwater plant meadow in a large river over six summers. We found that plant abundance and river nitrogen inputs were critical to determine how much pollution was removed, and that these were controlled by climatic conditions. Plant abundance was controlled by both water temperatures and levels. When water was warm and levels were neither too high nor too low, conditions were perfect for lots of plants to grow, which mainly stimulated bacteria that permanently eliminated nitrogen. We showed that the amount of nitrogen pollution removed over the summer by the meadow changes with climatic conditions but in general represents the amount produced by a city of half a million people. , Key Points Nitrogen retention and biomass were measured at a high resolution over six summers in a submerged aquatic vegetation meadow of a large river Among the highest riverine, nitrate uptake rates were recorded, and 47%–87% of loads were retained with plants favoring denitrification Interannual climate variations influenced nitrate retention by altering water levels, temperature, plant biomass, and tributary nitrate load

Combining quadrat, rake, and echosounding to estimate submerged aquatic vegetation biomass at the ecosystem scale - Botrel, Morgan; Hudon, Christiane; Biron, Pascale M.; Maranger, Roxane (Limnology and Oceanography: Methods, 2023)
Abstract Measuring freshwater submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) biomass at large spatial scales is challenging, and no single technique can cost effectively accomplish this while maintaining accuracy. We propose to combine and intercalibrate accurate quadrat‐scuba diver technique, fast rake sampling, and large‐scale echosounding. We found that the overall relationship between quadrat and rake biomass is moderately strong (pseudo R 2 = 0.61) and varies with substrate type and SAV growth form. Rake biomass was also successfully estimated from biovolume (pseudo R 2 = 0.57), a biomass proxy derived from echosounding. In addition, the relationship was affected, in decreasing relevance, by SAV growth form, flow velocity, acoustic data quality, depth, and wind conditions. Sequential application of calibrations yielded predictions in agreement with quadrat observations, but echosounding predictions underestimated biomass in shallow areas (< 1 m) while outperforming point estimation in deep areas (> 3 m). Whole‐system quadrat‐equivalent biomass from echosounding differed by a factor of two from point survey estimates, suggesting echosounding is more accurate at larger scales owing to the increased sample size and better representation of spatial heterogeneity. To decide when an individual or a combination of techniques is profitable, we developed a step‐by‐step guideline. Given the risks of quadrat‐scuba diver technique, we recommend developing a one‐time quadrat–rake calibration, followed by the use of rake and echosounding when sampling at larger spatial and temporal scales. In this case, rake sampling becomes a valid ground truthing method for echosounding, also providing valuable species information and estimates in shallow waters where echosounding is inappropriate.

Density effects on streamwise-orientated vorticity at river confluences: a laboratory investigation - Duguay, J.M.; Biron, P.M.; Lacey, R.W.J. (Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 2023)
Small differences in the densities of a river confluence's tributaries (i.e. 0.5 kg m $^{-3}$ ) have been proposed to cause coherent streamwise-oriented vortices (SOVs) in its mixing interface. These secondary flow structures are thought to result from density-driven gravity currents being laterally confined between the converging flows. However, empirical evidence for density SOVs and the confined gravity current mechanism is lacking. To this end, experiments are carried out in a laboratory confluence permitting a spectrum of thermal density differences between its tributaries. Particle image velocimetry and laser-induced fluorescence are used simultaneously to study the mixing interface's dynamics. The sensitivity of the mixing interface's secondary flow structure to the confluence's momentum ratio and the magnitude of the density difference is evaluated. Density SOVs are confirmed in the mixing interface and are caused by the gravity currents being confined laterally as the opposing flows merge and accelerate downstream. The SOVs are largest and most coherent when the momentum of the dense channel is greater than that of the light channel. The dynamics of these secondary flow structures is strongly coupled to periodic vertically orientated Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities. The striking similarities between the empirically reproduced SOVs herein and those recently observed at the Coaticook-Massawippi confluence (Quebec, Canada), despite a two-order magnitude difference in physical scale, suggest density SOVs are a scale-independent flow structure at confluences when specific, yet relatively common, hydraulic and density conditions align.

Trajectoires et visées de l'hydrogéomorphologie au Québec - Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas; Lachapelle, Félix; Biron, Pascale; Boivin, Maxime (Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes, 2024)
Résumé L'hydrogéomorphologie étudie la dynamique des rivières en se concentrant sur les interactions liant la structure des écoulements, la mobilisation et le transport des sédiments et les morphologies qui caractérisent les cours d'eau et leur bassin‐versant. Elle offre un cadre d'analyse et des outils pour une meilleure intégration des connaissances sur la dynamique des rivières pour la gestion des cours d'eau au sens large, et plus spécifiquement, pour leur restauration, leur aménagement et pour l'évaluation et la prévention des risques liés aux aléas fluviaux. Au Québec, l'hydrogéomorphologie émerge comme contribution significative dans les approches de gestion et d'évaluation du risque et se trouve au cœur d'un changement de paradigme dans la gestion des cours d'eau par lequel la restauration des processus vise à augmenter la résilience des systèmes et des sociétés et à améliorer la qualité des environnements fluviaux. Cette contribution expose la trajectoire de l'hydrogéomorphologie au Québec à partir des publications scientifiques de géographes du Québec et discute des visées de la discipline en recherche et en intégration des connaissances pour la gestion des cours d'eau . , Abstract Hydrogeomorphology studies river dynamics, focusing on the interactions between flow structure, sediment transport, and the morphologies that characterize rivers and their watersheds. It provides an analytical framework and tools for better integrating knowledge of river dynamics into river management in the broadest sense, and more specifically, into river restoration as well as into the assessment and prevention of risks associated with fluvial hazards. In Quebec, hydrogeomorphology is emerging as a significant contribution to risk assessment and management approaches, and is at the heart of a paradigm shift in river management whereby process restoration aims to increase the resilience of fluvial systems and societies, and improve the quality of fluvial environments. This contribution outlines the trajectory of hydrogeomorphology in Quebec, based on scientific publications by Quebec geographers, and discusses the discipline's aims in research and knowledge integration for river management . , Messages clés Les géographes du Québec ont contribué fortement au développement des connaissances et outils de l'hydrogéomorphologie. L'hydrogéomorphologie a évolué d'une science fondamentale à une science où les connaissances fondamentales sont au service de la gestion des cours d'eau. L'hydrogéomorphologie et le cortège de connaissances et d'outils qu'elle promeut font de cette discipline une partenaire clé pour une gestion holistique des cours d'eau.

Societal drivers for the integration of hydrogeomorphology and human benefits in river restoration projects - Gariépy‐Girouard, Étienne; Buffin‐Bélanger, Thomas; Biron, Pascale M. (River Research and Applications, 2025)
Abstract Integrating hydrogeomorphological (HGM) principles into the restoration of degraded rivers can achieve sustainable results and provide various human benefits. HGM principles mainly involve understanding the context and processes that shape a fluvial system before any intervention, in order to support its dynamism and to align with its potential functioning and uses. Despite recent management approaches inspired by HGM principles, most restoration projects carried out in Quebec (Canada) are not process‐based and target specific one‐dimensional objectives. Although there is an overall lack of post‐project monitoring, several projects appear to have failed or had mixed success. This research aims to shed light on the diversity of societal drivers behind river restoration projects and to examine how they influence the integration of HGM principles and human benefits. Four restoration projects were characterized through participant observation and interviews with the organizations running them. Representatives of two ministries involved in river restoration and management were also interviewed. The results show that projects were mainly shaped by public acceptance disregarding HGM principles, which can lead to poorly‐informed action. Project funding and stakeholders' expertise have also challenged project implementation and played a key role in defining their objectives. The addition of these components improve the current analytical frameworks for identifying river restoration objectives. Depending on specific sociocultural, political and legislative contexts, funding programs and stakeholders' expertise may either facilitate or restrict the integration of HGM principles and human benefits in the projects. Recognizing these key drivers reframes river restoration as a fundamentally social activity and enlightens how they could impel innovative approaches towards more sustainable results.

Données d’utilisation d’un autotraitement guidé en ligne pour promouvoir la résilience après une catastrophe naturelle - Lebel, Jessica; Flores-Tremblay, Thalie; Binet, Émilie; Ouellet, Marie-Christine; Belleville, Geneviève (Santé mentale au Québec, 2021)
Objectifs Malgré l’existence de plusieurs traitements en ligne pour les personnes avec un trouble de stress posttraumatique (TSPT), peu d’études se sont penchées sur les données d’utilisation d’une telle intervention. Étant donné le potentiel de la modalité en ligne à pallier les obstacles limitant l’accès à l’aide psychologique, il importe de documenter les interactions des usagers avec ces outils en lien avec l’amélioration des symptômes ciblés. L’objectif de cette étude est de documenter les données d’utilisation de la plateforme de traitement en ligne RESILIENT par les personnes évacuées des feux de Fort McMurray, Alberta (Canada), et d’examiner leur association avec l’efficacité du traitement sur les symptômes de trouble de stress posttraumatique (TSPT), d’insomnie et de dépression, et l’adhésion au traitement, mesurée par le nombre de modules consultés par les participants. Méthode Quatre-vingt-dix-sept personnes évacuées des feux de Fort McMurray présentant des symptômes de TSPT, d’insomnie et de dépression sont incluses dans la présente étude. Les participants étaient invités à utiliser la plateforme RESILIENT, un autotraitement en ligne guidé par un thérapeute qui cible les symptômes de TSPT, le sommeil et l’humeur, et comprend 12 modules offrant des stratégies de thérapies cognitives et comportementales (TCC) basées sur les données probantes. Des données d’utilisation objectives (p. ex. nombre de modules consultés) et subjectives (p. ex. niveau d’efforts investis) ont été recueillies. Résultats Afin de prédire la réduction des symptômes de TSPT, de dépression et d’insomnie, ainsi que le nombre de modules consultés par les participants, des modèles de régressions séquentielles ont été effectués, avec un contrôle statistique pour les symptômes prétraitement, l’âge et le genre. Les modèles finaux ont révélé qu’une réduction des symptômes de TSPT, de dépression et d’insomnie était prédite significativement par le nombre de modules consultés (β = - 0,41 ; - 0,53 ; - 0,49 respectivement, tous p < 0,001) ainsi que par le niveau d’efforts moyen autorapporté au module 7 (mi-parcours) (β = - 0,43 ; p < 0,001 ; β = - 0,38 ; p = 0,005 et β = - 0,36 ; p = 0,007 respectivement). Le nombre de modules consultés, par ailleurs, était prédit significativement par le nombre de mots dans le 4 e module (β = 0,34 ; p < 0,001) et dans le 7 e module (β = 0,44 ; p < 0,001), ainsi que par le nombre d’entrées dans le journal du sommeil (β = 0,28 ; p < 0,001). Conclusion Les résultats ont confirmé qu’une plus grande interaction avec la plateforme influence positivement l’efficacité du traitement et qu’une utilisation accrue en début de traitement semble être un bon prédicteur de l’achèvement de celui-ci. Cette étude confirme l’importance de soutenir l’engagement des participants envers le traitement en ligne afin d’optimiser son efficacité. , Objectives Despite the existence of several online treatments for people with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), few studies have examined usage data for such interventions. Given the potential of the online modality to alleviate barriers limiting access to psychological help, it is important to document users’ interactions with these tools in relation to the improvement of targeted symptoms. The objective of this study is to document usage data of the online treatment platform RESILIENT by people evacuated from the Fort McMurray, Alberta (Canada) fires, and to examine their association with the effectiveness of treatment on symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), insomnia and depression, and adherence to treatment, as measured by the number of modules accessed by participants. Methods Ninety-seven people evacuated from the Fort McMurray fires with symptoms of PTSD, insomnia and depression were included in this study. Participants were invited to use the RESILIENT platform, an online therapist-assisted self-help treatment program that targets PTSD symptoms, sleep and mood, and includes 12 modules offering evidence-based cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) strategies. Both objective (e.g., number of modules accessed) and subjective (e.g., level of effort invested) usage data were collected. Results In order to predict the reduction in PTSD, depression and insomnia symptoms, as well as the number of modules accessed by participants, sequential regression models were conducted, with statistical control for pretreatment symptoms, age and gender. The final models revealed that a reduction in PTSD, depression and insomnia symptoms was significantly predicted by the number of modules accessed (β = -.41; -.53; -.49 respectively, all p <.001) as well as the mean self-reported level of effort at module 7 (midway) (β = -.43; p <.001; β = -.38; p = .005 and β = -.36; p = .007 respectively). The number of modules accessed, on the other hand, was significantly predicted by the number of words in the 4th module (β = .34; p <.001) and 7th module (β = .44; p <.001) and the number of sleep diary entries (β = .28; p <.001). Conclusion These results confirmed that increased interaction with the platform positively influences treatment effectiveness and that increased use at the beginning of treatment appears to be a good predictor of treatment completion. This study confirms the importance of sustaining participants’ commitment to online treatment in order to optimize its effectiveness.

La communication de crise et de risque en contexte de catastrophes météorologiques : Synthèse de littérature - Cissé, Iliassou (Présenté au Réseau Inondations InterSectoriel du Québec, 2024)

Determination of critical hydraulic parameters affecting erosion in spillways using experimental and numerical analyses - Motahari Moghadam, Elaheh (Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 2025)
Dam spillways are susceptible to a range of engineering challenges including structural deficiencies, insufficient discharge capacity, and mechanical failures; however, a particularly significant issue is hydraulic erosion, which poses a significant threat to dam infrastructure. This necessitates a comprehensive assessment of both hydraulic and rock mechanical parameters to ensure structural integrity and operational resilience. In the rock mechanical aspect of hydraulic erosion, the resistive capacity of the material holds great importance, while in the hydraulic aspect, the erosive force of water plays a pivotal role. Hence, neglecting these incidents would increase the risk of overtopping and subsequent downstream flooding, thereby impacting the overall safety and operational reliability of the dam. This study focuses on investigating the hydraulic parameters of a smooth surface unlined open channel spillway. By utilizing both numerical modeling and experimental analysis, we aim to explore how variations in these parameters impact erosion in dams’ spillways. The research centers on the Romaine 4 dam spillway, situated in the northeastern region of Quebec in Canada as a representative case study. The physical model of this spillway was constructed at the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, where we carried out the experimental analyses. In this research, we also conducted a comprehensive numerical analysis using Finite Volume Method (FVM), enabling a detailed examination of three-dimensional flow behavior within the spillway. This enabled a precise monitoring of the fluid motion patterns. Moreover, an experimental approach was utilized to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the results. This involved conducting detailed tests on the reduced-scale model using a XYZ robotic system capable of movement in X,Y,Z directions and capturing position, velocity and pressure. The results of numerical and experimental analyses reveal that the numerical model effectively captures the overall flow characteristics, closely predicting the average velocity throughout the channel. However, it indicates limitations in accurately predicting extreme velocities, such as maximum and minimum values. The results show that the maximum discrepancies between experimental and numerical data primarily concern extreme velocities, with the numerical model underestimating maximum velocities and overestimating minimum velocities, with errors more pronounced at higher flow rates and upstream. This discrepancy can reach up to 60% in certain areas. Furthermore, the study examined the effects of gates on variability of hydraulic parameters like flow depth and velocity. The analysis of a number of gate configurations revealed that double-gate spillways maintain more consistent flow depths across all significant cross-sections. By explaining the complex interaction between hydraulic behavior and spillway design, this research attempts to advance our understanding of hydraulic-prone erosion areas in dam spillways and ensure the long-term resilience of dam infrastructure. Les évacuateurs de crues des barrages sont sujets à divers défis d'ingénierie, incluant des défaillances structurelles, une capacité d'évacuation insuffisante et des pannes mécaniques; cependant, l'érosion hydraulique constitue une problématique particulièrement importante qui menace l'infrastructure des barrages. Il est donc nécessaire d’évaluer de manière approfondie les paramètres hydrauliques et mécaniques des roches afin d’assurer l’intégrité structurelle et la résilience opérationnelle. Dans l’aspect mécanique des roches concernant l’érosion hydraulique, la capacité de résistance du matériau revêt une grande importance, tandis que dans l’aspect hydraulique, la force érosive de l’eau joue un rôle essentiel. Par conséquent, ignorer ces phénomènes augmenterait le risque de débordement et d’inondation en aval, impactant ainsi la sécurité et la fiabilité opérationnelle globale du barrage. Cette étude se concentre sur l’analyse des paramètres hydrauliques d'un évacuateur de crues à canal ouvert non revêtu et à surface lisse. En utilisant à la fois la modélisation numérique et l’analyse expérimentale, nous visons à explorer comment les variations de ces paramètres influencent l’érosion dans les évacuateurs de crues des barrages. La recherche porte sur l’évacuateur de crues du barrage Romaine 4, situé dans la région nord-est du Québec au Canada, en tant qu’étude de cas représentative. Le modèle physique de cet évacuateur a été construit à l’Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, où nous avons effectué les analyses expérimentales. Dans cette recherche, nous avons également réalisé une analyse numérique complète en utilisant la méthode des volumes finis (FVM), permettant un examen détaillé du comportement tridimensionnel de l’écoulement dans l’évacuateur. Cela a permis un suivi précis des schémas de mouvement du fluide. En outre, une approche expérimentale a été utilisée pour accroître la précision et la fiabilité des résultats, en réalisant des tests détaillés sur le modèle réduit à l’aide d’un système robotisé XYZ qui est capable de se déplacer dans trois directions (X, Y, Z), pour effectuer des prises de mesures de position, vitesse et pression. Les résultats des analyses numériques et expérimentales révèlent que le modèle numérique capture efficacement les caractéristiques générales de l’écoulement, prédisant de manière précise la vitesse moyenne dans le canal. Cependant, il présente des limitations dans la prédiction précise des pression dynamique et statique extrêmes comme les valeurs maximales et minimales. Les résultats montrent que les écarts maximaux entre les données expérimentales et numériques concernent principalement les vitesses extrêmes, le modèle numérique sous-estimant les vitesses maximales et surestimant les minimales, avec des erreurs plus marquées aux débits élevés et en amont. Cet écart peut aller jusqu’aux 60% à certains endroits. Par ailleurs, l’étude a examiné les effets des vannes sur la variabilité des paramètres hydrauliques tels que la profondeur de l’écoulement et la vitesse. L’analyse de plusieurs configurations de vannes a révélé que les évacuateurs à double vanne maintiennent des profondeurs d’écoulement plus constantes à travers toutes les sections transversales significatives. En expliquant l’interaction complexe entre le comportement hydraulique et la conception des évacuateurs de crues, cette recherche vise à améliorer notre compréhension des zones sujettes à l’érosion hydraulique dans les évacuateurs de barrages et à assurer la résilience à long terme de l’infrastructure des barrages.

Earth Observation of Ecosystem Structure and Function in Ecosystem Service Models - Ferguson, David (McGill University, 2025)

Évaluation préliminaire du risque lié aux aléas HGM des petits cours d'eau dans la région du Bas-Saint-Laurent - Bilé, Dahoua Virginie (Université du Québec à Rimouski, 2025)
RÉSUMÉ : Peu d’outils permettent de faire un audit des aléas hydrogéomorphologiques (HGM) auxquels les petits cours d’eau (PCE) sont sujets, pourtant à ces PCE sont associés plusieurs aléas HGM qui compromettent l’intégrité d’enjeux qui y sont exposés. L’objectif du projet vise à appliquer des outils SIG (ExZeco et Geomorphon landform) employés avec un modèle numérique d’élévation à haute résolution, pour l’évaluation préliminaire du risque lié aux aléas HGM des PCE. Cette évaluation préliminaire ne tient pas compte de la probabilité d’occurrence de l’aléa. Elle est plutôt basée sur la position des enjeux par rapport aux aléas HGM simulés sur les cônes alluviaux et les plaines d’inondations. Pour ce faire, quatre bassins versants de la région du Bas-Saint-Laurent ont été identifiés comme sites d’étude. La méthodologie se base dans un premier temps sur l’établissement d’un portrait d’aléa HGM, puis dans un deuxième temps sur la caractérisation de ces aléas en évaluant leur intensité, leur étendue et leur distribution spatiale et finalement, l’évaluation de l’exposition des enjeux vis-à-vis des aléas. Les résultats montrent que des enjeux (parcelle agricole, route, résidences) sont exposés à l’aléa torrentiel sur deux cônes alluviaux cartographiés dans les bassins versants pilotes, et des résidences sont exposées à un débordement probable de cours d’eau. L’analyse du risque a été réalisée avec obstruction probable des ponceaux sur le LiDAR et sans obstruction des ponceaux. L’aléa est de forte intensité dans le risque probable lié aux obstructions, et les enjeux exposés sont notamment les résidences, les routes et des portions de terre agricole. Des témoignages de riverains ont permis de valider l’intensité des aléas prédits par ExZeco. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en français : Aléa HGM, Évaluation préliminaire, cône alluvial, plaine d’inondation, LiDAR. -- ABSTRACT : Few tools are available for auditing the hydrogeomorphic hazards (HGM) to which small watercourses (PCE) are subject, yet these PCE are associated with several HGM hazards that compromise the integrity of issues exposed to them. The aim of the project is to apply GIS tools (ExZeco and Geomorphon landform) used in conjunction with a high-resolution digital elevation model, for the preliminary assessment of the risk associated with HGM hazards in PCE. This is an assessment based solely on the position of issues in relation to the HGM hazards to which alluvial fans and floodplains are subject. To this end, four watersheds in the Lower St. Lawrence region were identified as study sites. The methodology is based firstly on the establishment of a HGM hazard profile, then on the characterization of these hazards by assessing their intensity, extent and spatial distribution, and finally on the assessment of the level of exposure of issues to these hazards. The results show that issues (agricultural plots, roads, residences) are exposed to torrential hazards on two alluvial fans mapped in the pilot watersheds, and residences are exposed to probable river overflow. The risk analysis was carried out with probable culvert obstructions on the LiDAR and without culvert obstructions. The probable risk associated with obstructions is of high intensity, and the stakes exposed include residences, roads and portions of agricultural land. Testimonials from residents validated the intensity of the hazards predicted by ExZeco. -- Mot(s) clé(s) en anglais : HGM Hazard, Preliminary Assessment, Alluvial Fan, Floodplain, LiDAR.

Understanding Hydrogeomorphological Impacts of Artisanal Aggregate Mining on Alluvial Streams and Fluvial Landscape of the Rusine Subwatershed in Northern Rwanda. - Dos Santos, Nicolas (McGill University, 2025)
Keywords: Geography

Modelling and Simulation of Extreme Waves in Floods and Mudflows - Yu, Boyuan (McGill University, 2024)
Keywords: Civil Engineering

Comportement en cisaillement de ponceaux rectangulaires en béton armé avec des barres en polymère renforcé de fibre (PRF) - Elnady, Ahmed (2025)
Les ponceaux en béton armé sont l’un des éléments clés de la construction des autoroutes, facilitant le passage de l’eau et des eaux de drainage sous les routes et les voies ferrées. La structure des ponceaux joue également un rôle essentiel dans la gestion des risques d’inondation en tant qu’outil intégral de prévention des inondations qui protège les villes et les vies humaines. Les ponceaux sont soumis à des expositions agressives; l’eau qui coule et le sol environnant représentent un environnement difficile pour la structure du ponceau. L’eau peut contenir des acides, des déchets industriels, des produits chimiques et des chlorures. De plus, dans des régions comme l’Amérique du Nord, l’utilisation de sels de déglaçage accélère la corrosion de l’armature en acier. Cette étude a porté sur le comportement structurel et les performances de seize ponceaux rectangulaires en béton en vraie grandeur soumis à des charges concentrées verticales. Treize spécimens avaient une travée de 1500 mm, une flèche de 1500 mm, une épaisseur de dalle de 150 mm et une épaisseur de paroi de 150 mm. Les trois autres spécimens avaient une travée de 1800 mm, une flèche de 1500 mm et une épaisseur de dalle et de mur de 180 mm. Tous les ponceaux rectangulaires avaient des arêtiers aux raccordements entre les dalles et les murs, qui avaient les mêmes dimensions que les murs latéraux. La longueur du joint était de 1219 mm pour tous les spécimens et la couverture de béton a été maintenue constante à 25 mm. Les paramètres examinés étaient le ratio de renforcement longitudinal-FRP (0,83 %, 1,25 % et 1,67 %), le matériau de renforcement (PRFV, PRFB et acier), l’emplacement de la charge concentrée, la résistance à la compression du béton, le matériau d’assise de l’essai et l’effet de taille. Les résultats des essais ont été analysés en termes de résistance au cisaillement dans les deux directions, de mode de défaillance, de fléchissement de la dalle supérieure, de déplacement latéral des parois latérales et de déformations du béton et des armatures. L’effet de chaque paramètre sur le comportement a été évalué et discuté. Une étude théorique a été menée pour modifier l’équation de l’action du cisaillement bidirectionnel de la norme CAN/CSA S6:19 afin de prendre en compte les caractéristiques du matériau de renforcement PRF. L’équation modifiée a montré de bonnes prédictions de la capacité du cisaillement bidirectionnel expérimental des ponceaux en béton testés. En outre, une autre approche théorique a été menée de manière innovante pour proposerune nouvelle formule permettant de prédire avec précision la capacité de cisaillement dans les deux directions de la dalle supérieure des ponceaux rectangulaires en béton renforcés par des PRF. La formule proposée a montré d’excellentes prédictions de la capacité de cisaillement expérimentale dans les deux directions. En outre, la formule proposée a été développée pour prédire la capacité de cisaillement dans les deux directions des dalles en béton renforcé par des PRFV avec retenue des bords, représentant les dalles de pont en béton renforcé par des PRFV. Les analyses théoriques ont été soutenues par un modèle de régression linéaire et évaluées par des moyens statistiques.

Dynamique de l'aléa torrentiel au long de la rivière Chaudière : analyse historique et modélisation - Constantineau, Jo-Annie (Université du Québec à Montréal, 2025)
Dans le bassin-versant de la rivière Chaudière, les inondations sont partie intégrante de la réalité territoriale. En effet, de nombreuses études ont été réalisées dans les dernières années concernant les inondations en eau libre et par embâcle. Néanmoins, on observe que les inondations torrentielles, ou crues torrentielles, bien qu’omniprésentes dans la région, sont très peu documentées à ce jour. Le présent mémoire s’intéresse à la dynamique spatio-temporelle de ces évènements et aux facteurs aggravants présents sur le territoire qui tendent à amplifier le phénomène. Par une double approche qualitative et quantitative, qui combine une recension historique, la caractérisation des sous-bassins-versants et la modélisation des facteurs de vulnérabilité environnementale, nous avons dressé un premier portrait de l’aléa torrentiel à l’échelle du bassin-versant de la rivière Chaudière. Ainsi, nous avons pu répertorier 53 évènements à caractère torrentiel pour la période de 1900 à aujourd’hui. La collecte des informations liées aux crues torrentielles, soit les facteurs météorologiques, anthropiques et géomorphologiques ont permis d’établir des constats généraux quant à l’occurrence de celles-ci. L’occurrence des évènements à caractère torrentiel semble premièrement liée aux passages d’évènements météorologiques extrêmes. Les facteurs aggravants consistent en un aménagement du territoire qui accroît le ruissellement (augmentation des surfaces minéralisées et diminution des forêts, prairies et milieux humides) et une disposition géomorphologique des tributaires (forte pente et compacité) qui provoque une amplification du ruissellement lors de fortes précipitations. L’analyse multicritère repose sur l’addition d’indices amplifiant le ruissellement lors de fortes précipitations (pente, occupation du sol et potentiel de ruissellement). La comparaison entre les sous-bassins-versants présentant les valeurs les plus élevées et ceux ayant connu le plus d'événements d'inondation selon la recension historique a démontré la pertinence de cette méthode pour identifier, de manière préliminaire, les sous-bassins-versants potentiellement vulnérables à l’aléa torrentiel. Cette étude se veut donc un premier jalon dans l’acquisition de connaissances sur la dynamique torrentielle dans le bassin-versant de la rivière Chaudière. _____________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : inondation, torrents, crues torrentielles, pluies torrentielles, aléas torrentiels, bassin-versant de la rivière Chaudière, facteurs aggravants, conditions hydrométéorologiques

Information Seeking and Information Sharing Related to Hurricane Harvey - Yang, Janet Z.; Zhuang, Jun (Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 2020)
This study is focused on social cognitive variables that motivate information seeking and information sharing related to Hurricane Harvey. Survey results from a nationally representative sample and a quota sample of Houston residents indicate that climate change beliefs and issue salience are consistent predictors of risk perception, which increases individuals’ negative emotions and information insufficiency. This need for information subsequently motivates information seeking and information sharing. Informational subjective norms are significantly related to seeking and sharing in the Houston sample, whereas perceived information gathering capacity and trust in media are significant predictors in the national sample.

Using the CAUSE Model to Understand Public Communication about Water Risks: Perspectives from Texas Groundwater District Officials on Drought and Availability - VanDyke, Matthew S.; King, Andy J. (Risk Analysis, 2018)
Abstract Public communication about drought and water availability risks poses challenges to a potentially disinterested public. Water management professionals, though, have a responsibility to work with the public to engage in communication about water and environmental risks. Because limited research in water management examines organizational communication practices and perceptions, insights into research and practice can be gained through investigation of current applications of these risk communication efforts. Guided by the CAUSE model, which explains common goals in communicating risk information to the public (e.g., creating Confidence, generating Awareness, enhancing Understanding, gaining Satisfaction, and motivating Enactment), semistructured interviews of professionals ( N = 25) employed by Texas groundwater conservation districts were conducted. The interviews examined how CAUSE model considerations factor in to communication about drought and water availability risks. These data suggest that many work to build constituents’ confidence in their districts. Although audiences and constituents living in drought‐prone areas were reported as being engaged with water availability risks and solutions, many district officials noted constituents’ lack of perceived risk and engagement. Some managers also indicated that public understanding was a secondary concern of their primary responsibilities and that the public often seemed apathetic about technical details related to water conservation risks. Overall, results suggest complicated dynamics between officials and the public regarding information access and motivation. The article also outlines extensions of the CAUSE model and implications for improving public communication about drought and water availability risks.

Twitter communication during winter storm Uri in San Antonio, Texas - Implications for climate resiliency planning - Terracciano, Emmalyn; Han, Albert Tonghoon (Cities, 2023)

Review of social influence in crisis communications and evacuation decision-making - Sadri, Arif Mohaimin; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Ahmed, Md Ashraf (Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2021)

The influence of impact-based severe weather warnings on risk perceptions and intended protective actions - Potter, Sally H.; Kreft, Peter V.; Milojev, Petar; Noble, Chris; Montz, Burrell; Dhellemmes, Amandine; Woods, Richard J.; Gauden-Ing, Sarah (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2018)

A Meta-Cognitive Approach to Predicting Hurricane Evacuation Behavior - Goldberg, Matthew H.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Rosenthal, Seth A.; Leiserowitz, Anthony (Environmental Communication, 2020)

Flood Risk Management via Risk Communication, Cognitive Appraisal, Collective Efficacy, and Community Action - Lin, Carolyn A. (Sustainability, 2023)
Climate change and more frequent severe storms have caused persistent flooding, storm surges, and erosion in the northeastern coastal region of the United States. These weather-related disasters have continued to generate negative environmental consequences across many communities. This study examined how coastal residents’ exposure to flood risk information and information seeking behavior were related to their threat appraisal, threat-coping efficacy, and participation in community action in the context of building social resilience. A random sample of residents of a coastal community in the Northeastern United States was selected to participate in an online survey (N = 302). Key study results suggested that while offline news exposure was weakly related to flood vulnerability perception, online news exposure and mobile app use were both weakly associated with flood-risk information seeking. As flood vulnerability perception was strongly connected to flood severity perception but weakly linked to lower self-efficacy beliefs, flood severity perception was weakly and moderately associated with response-efficacy beliefs and information seeking, respectively. Furthermore, self-efficacy beliefs, response efficacy beliefs, and flood-risk information seeking were each a weak or moderate predictor of collective efficacy beliefs. Lastly, flood risk information-seeking was a strong predictor and collective efficacy beliefs were a weak predictor of community action for flood-risk management. This study tested a conceptual model that integrated the constructs from risk communication, information seeking, and protection motivation theory. Based on the modeling results reflecting a set of first-time findings, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

The role of public relations in building community resilience to natural disasters: perspectives from Sri Lanka and New Zealand - Dharmasena, M. K. Gayadini Imesha; Toledano, Margalit; Weaver, C. Kay (Journal of Communication Management, 2020)
The paper identifies a role for public relations in disaster management by analysing disaster and communication managers' understanding of community resilience and their use of communication in the context of two different cultural environments.,The research study comprised 51 in-depth qualitative interviews with disaster managers in Sri Lanka and New Zealand, which were thematically analysed using the software programme NVivo 10.,The study identified cultural differences in Sri Lanka and New Zealand that impact on how managers' communicate in natural disaster situations. The findings indicated that public relations’ understanding of communities’ cultures, their communication, networking and lobbying skills could further enhance the effectiveness of efforts to build community resilience to disasters.,Nations are complex multicultural realities; the findings cannot be generalized to make claims about how natural disasters are managed in different national contexts.,The paper identifies the unrealized potential of public relations’ expertise in communication, community relations, networking and lobbying to contribute to building community resilience to natural disasters.,By supporting efforts to build community resilience to disasters, public relations practitioners can contribute to social well-being in times of catastrophic natural disasters.,The paper adds an innovative perspective to public relations crisis literature by identifying the potential contribution of public relations’ concepts and practices to build community resilience to natural disasters. It demonstrates how sociocultural differences may affect disaster communication strategies.

When We Don't Want to Know More: Information Sufficiency and The Case Of Swedish Flood Risks - Lakew, Yuliya; Olausson, Ulrika (Journal of International Crisis and Risk Communication Research, 2023)
This study investigates the phenomenon of information (in)sufficiency in the context of flood risks. Individuals’ perception of how much risk information they need is a major trigger and driver of information-seeking behavior, and therefore it is an important part of creating effective preventive risk-communication campaigns. To understand factors that contribute to individuals’ sense of information (in)sufficiency, the roles played by prior experiences of floods and general risk sensitivity were analyzed using survey data from residents in flood-risk zones. The findings highlight that every third respondent reported a state of information sufficiency. Residents with prior experience evaluate their information sufficiency level based on their perception of consequences of future floods. But it is general risk sensitivity that best explains need for more information.

How to Exchange Stories of Local Flood Resilience From Flood Rich Areas to the Flooded Areas of the Future - Holmes, Andrew; McEwen, Lindsey (Environmental Communication, 2020)

Personal Stories Can Shift Climate Change Beliefs and Risk Perceptions: The Mediating Role of Emotion - Gustafson, Abel; Ballew, Matthew T.; Goldberg, Matthew H.; Cutler, Matthew J.; Rosenthal, Seth A.; Leiserowitz, Anthony (Communication Reports, 2020)

Addressing the climate change adaptation puzzle: a psychological science perspective - Bechtoldt, Myriam N.; Götmann, Alexander; Moslener, Ulf; Pauw, W. Pieter (Climate Policy, 2021)

The Usefulness of Global and Regional Precipitation and Temperature Reanalyses for Flood Modeling at the Catchment Scale - Valdez, Emixi; Anctil, Francois; Ramos, Maria-Helena (AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2022)
Atmospheric reanalysis data provides a numerical description of global and regional water cycles by combining models and observations. These datasets are increasingly valuable as a substitute for observations in regions where these are scarce. They could significantly contribute to reducing losses by feeding flood early warning systems that can inform the population and guide civil security action. We assessed the suitability of two different precipitation and temperature reanalysis products readily available for predicting historic flooding of the La Chaudière River in Quebec: 1) Environment and Climate Change Canada's Regional Deterministic Reanalysis System (RDRS-v2) and 2) ERA5 from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. We exploited a multi-model hydrological ensemble prediction system that considers three sources of uncertainty: initial conditions, model structure, and weather forcing to produce streamflow forecasts up to 5 days into the future with a time step of 3 hours. These results are compared to a provincial reference product based on gauge measurements of the Ministère de l'Environnement et de la Lutte contre les Changements Climatiques. Then, five conceptual hydrological models were calibrated with three different meteorological datasets (RDRS-v2, ERA5, and observational gridded) and fed with two ensemble weather forecast products: 1) the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) from the Environment and Climate Change Canada and 2) the ensemble forecast issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Results reveal that the calibration of the model with reanalysis data as input delivered a higher accuracy in the streamflow simulation providing a useful resource for flood modeling where no other data is available. However, although the selection of the reanalysis is a determinant of capturing the flood volumes, selecting weather forecasts is more critical in anticipating discharge threshold exceedances.

Lessons learned from the NSERC Canadian FloodNet on improving flood forecasting systems and management capacity - Xenopoulos, Marguerite; Coulibaly, Paulin; Anctil, Francois; Burn, Donald; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van (AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2021)
In Canada, floods are the most common largely distributed hazard to life, property, the economy, water systems, and the environment costing the Canadian economy billions of dollars. Arising from this is FloodNet: a transdisciplinary strategic research network funded by Canadas Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, as a vehicle for a concerted nation-wide effort to improve flood forecasting and to better assess risk and manage the environmental and socio-economic consequences of floods. Four themes were explored in this network which include 1) Flood regimes in Canada; 2) Uncertainty of floods; 3) Development of a flood forecasting and early warning system and 4) Physical, socio-economic and environmental effects of floods. Over the years a range of statistical, hydrologic, modeling, and economic and psychometric analyses were used across the themes. FloodNet has made significant progress in: assessing spatial and temporal variation of extreme events; updating intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves; improving streamflow forecasting using novel techniques; development and testing of a Canadian adaptive flood forecasting and early warning system (CAFFEWS); a better understanding of flood impacts and risk. Despite these advancements FloodNet ends at a time when the World is still grappling with severe floods (e.g., Europe, China, Africa) and we report on several lessons learned. Mitigating the impact of flood hazards in Canada remains a challenging task due to the countrys varied geography, environment, and jurisdictional political boundaries. Canadian technical guide for developing IDF relations for infrastructure design in the climate change context has been recently updated. However, national guidelines for flood frequency analyses are needed since across the country there is not a unified approach to flood forecasting as each jurisdiction uses individual models and procedures. From the perspective of risk and vulnerability, there remains great need to better understand the direct and indirect impacts of floods on society, the economy and the environment.

Development of interactive diagnostic tools and metrics for the socio-economic consequences of floods - Parent, Annie-Claude; Fournier, Frédéric; Anctil, François; Morse, Brian; Baril-Boyer, Jean-Philippe; Marceau, Pascal (2021)
Spring floods have generated colossal damages to residential areas in the Province of Quebec, Canada, in 2017 and 2019. Government authorities need accurate modelling of the impact of theoretical floods in order to prioritize pre-disaster mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. They also need accurate modelling of forecasted floods in order to direct emergency responses. We present a governmental-academic collaboration that aims at modelling flood impact for both theoretical and forecasted flooding events over all populated river reaches of meridional Quebec. The project, funded by the ministère de la Sécurité publique du Québec (Quebec ministry in charge of public security), consists in developing a diagnostic tool and methods to assess the risk and impacts of flooding. Tools under development are intended to be used primarily by policy makers. The project relies on water level data based on the hydrological regimes of nearly 25,000 km of rivers, on high-precision digital terrain models, and on a detailed database of building footprints and characterizations. It also relies on 24h and 48h forecasts of maximum flow for the subject rivers. The developed tools integrate large data sets and heterogeneous data sources and produce insightful metrics on the physical extent and costs of floods and on their impact on the population. The software also provides precise information about each building affected by rising water, including an estimated cost of the damages and impact on inhabitants.

Following up on flood adaptation in Québec households four years later: A prospective exploratory study - Valois, Pierre; Anctil, François; Cloutier, Geneviève; Tessier, Maxime; Herpin-Saunier, Naomie (International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2023)

Does the Operation of a Reservoir Alter Its Interactions with the Atmosphere? Investigating the Role of Advective Fluxes on Energy and Hydrological Balances of the Romaine-2 Subarctic Hydropower Reservoir - Pierre, Adrien; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Thiboult, Antoine; Rousseau, Alain N.; Anctil, François; Deblois, Charles P.; Demarty, Maud; Isabelle, Pierre-Erik; Tremblay, Alain (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2024)
Abstract The hydrological processes of cascading hydroelectric reservoirs differ from those of lakes, due to the importance of the inflows and outflows that vary with energy demand. These heat and water advection terms are rarely considered in water body energy balance analyses even though reservoirs are common man-made structures, especially in North America, and thus may affect the regional climate. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the water and energy balance of the 85-km 2 Romaine-2 northern reservoir (50.69°N, 63.24°W), mean depth of 44 m, highlighting the significant contribution of the advection heat fluxes. The water balance input was primarily controlled by upstream (turbine) inflows (77.6%), while lateral (natural) inflows and direct precipitation represented 21.2% and 1.2%, respectively. As for the reservoir’s heat budget, the net advection of heat accounted on average for 25.0% of the input, of which net radiation was the largest component (73.3%). After accounting for the absence of energy balance closure, latent heat and sensible heat fluxes represented 73.2% and 25.1% of total energy output from the reservoir, respectively. The thermal regime was influenced by the hydrological flow conditions, which were regulated by reservoir management. This played a major role in the evolution of the thermocline and the temperature of the epilimnion, and ultimately, in the dynamics of the turbulent heat fluxes. This study suggests that the heat advection term represents a large fraction of the heat budget of northern reservoirs and should be properly considered.

High-resolution mapping of tree species and associated uncertainty by combining aerial remote sensing data and convolutional neural networks ensemble - Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Drolet, Guillaume; Thiffault, Évelyne; Anctil, François (International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2024)

Modeling Heat and Water Exchanges between the Atmosphere and an 85-km2 Dimictic Subarctic Reservoir Using the 1D Canadian Small Lake Model - Kallel, Habiba; Thiboult, Antoine; Mackay, Murray D.; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Anctil, François (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2024)
Abstract Accurately modeling the interactions between inland water bodies and the atmosphere in meteorological and climate models is crucial, given the marked differences with surrounding landmasses. Modeling surface heat fluxes remains a challenge because direct observations available for validation are rare, especially at high latitudes. This study presents a detailed evaluation of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional mixed-layer dynamic lake model, in reproducing the surface energy budget and the thermal stratification of a subarctic reservoir in eastern Canada. The analysis is supported by multiyear direct observations of turbulent heat fluxes collected on and around the 85-km 2 Romaine-2 hydropower reservoir (50.7°N, 63.2°W) by two flux towers: one operating year-round on the shore and one on a raft during ice-free conditions. The CSLM, which simulates the thermal regime of the water body including ice formation and snow physics, is run in offline mode and forced by local weather observations from 25 June 2018 to 8 June 2021. Comparisons between observations and simulations confirm that CSLM can reasonably reproduce the turbulent heat fluxes and the temperature behavior of the reservoir, despite the one-dimensional nature of the model that cannot account for energy inputs and outputs associated with reservoir operations. The best performance is achieved during the first few months after the ice break-up (mean error = −0.3 and −2.7 W m −2 for latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively). The model overreacts to strong wind events, leading to subsequent poor estimates of water temperature and eventually to an early freeze-up. The model overestimated the measured annual evaporation corrected for the lack of energy balance closure by 5% and 16% in 2019 and 2020. Significance Statement Freshwater bodies impact the regional climate through energy and water exchanges with the atmosphere. It is challenging to model surface energy fluxes over a northern lake due to the succession of stratification and mixing periods over a year. This study focuses on the interactions between the atmosphere of an irregular shaped northern hydropower reservoir. Direct measurements of turbulent fluxes using an eddy covariance system allowed the model assessment. Turbulent fluxes were successfully predicted during the open water period. Comparison between observed and modeled time series showed a good agreement; however, the model overreacted to high wind episodes. Biases mostly occur during freeze-up and breakup, stressing the importance of a good representation of the ice cover processes.

A global analysis of ice phenology for 3702 lakes and 1028 reservoirs across the Northern Hemisphere using Sentinel-2 imagery - Domart, Doris; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Thiboult, Antoine; Anctil, François; Ghobrial, Tadros; Prairie, Yves T.; Bédard-Therrien, Alexis; Tremblay, Alain (Cold Regions Science and Technology, 2024)

Observations of River Ice Breakup Using GNSS-IR, SAR, and Machine Learning - Purnell, David; Dabboor, Mohammed; Matte, Pascal; Peters, Daniel; Anctil, François; Ghobrial, Tadros; Pierre, Amandine (IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2024)

Impacts of forest canopy heterogeneity on plot-scale hydrometeorological variables - Insights from an experiment in the humid boreal forest with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme - Lagueux, Philippe; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Drolet, Guillaume; Isabelle, Pierre-Erik; Leonardini, Gonzalo; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Anctil, François (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2024)

Modeling seasonal ice and its impact on the thermal regime of a shallow boreal lake using the Canadian small Lake model - Kallel, Habiba; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Bouchard, Benjamin; Thiboult, Antoine; Mackay, Murray D.; Anctil, François (Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2024)
At high latitudes, lake-atmosphere interactions are disrupted for several months of the year by the presence of an ice cover. By isolating the water column from the atmosphere, ice, typically topped by snow, drastically alters albedo, surface roughness, and heat exchanges relative to the open water period, with major climatic, ecological, and hydrological implications. Lake models used to simulate the appearance and disappearance of the ice cover have rarely been validated with detailed in situ observations of snow and ice. In this study, we investigate the ability of the physically-based 1D Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) to simulate the freeze-up, ice-cover growth, and breakup of a small boreal lake. The model, driven offline by local weather observations, is run on Lake Piché, 0.15 km 2 and 4 m deep (47.32°N; 71.15°W) from 25 October 2019 to 20 July 2021, and compared to observations of the temperature profile and ice and snow cover properties. Our results show that the CSLM is able to reproduce the total ice thickness (average error of 15 cm) but not the ice type-specific thickness, underestimating clear ice and overestimating snow ice. CSLM manages to reproduce snow depth (errors less than 10 cm). However, it has an average cold bias of 2°C and an underestimation of average snow density of 34 kg m −3 . Observed and model freeze-up and break-up dates are very similar, as the model is able to predict the longevity of the ice cover to within 2 weeks. CSLM successfully reproduces seasonal stratification, the mixed layer depth, and surface water temperatures, while it shows discrepancies in simulating bottom waters especially during the open water period.

Assessing the hydroclimatic sensitivity of tree species in Northeastern America through spatiotemporal modelling of annual tree growth - Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Drolet, Guillaume; Kiriazis, Nicholas; Thiffault, Évelyne; Anctil, François (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2024)

How does a warm and low-snow winter impact the snow cover dynamics in a humid and discontinuous boreal forest? Insights from observations and modeling in eastern Canada - Bouchard, Benjamin; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Domine, Florent; Anctil, François; Jonas, Tobias; Tremblay, Étienne (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2024)
Abstract. In the boreal forest of eastern Canada, winter temperatures are projected to increase substantially by 2100. This region is also expected to receive less solid precipitation, resulting in a reduction in snow cover thickness and duration. These changes are likely to affect hydrological processes such as snowmelt, the soil thermal regime, and snow metamorphism. The exact impact of future changes is difficult to pinpoint in the boreal forest, due to its complex structure and the fact that snow dynamics under the canopy are very different from those in the gaps. In this study, we assess the influence of a low-snow and warm winter on snowmelt dynamics, soil freezing, snowpack properties, and spring streamflow in a humid and discontinuous boreal catchment of eastern Canada (47.29° N, 71.17° W; ≈ 850 m a.m.s.l.) based on observations and SNOWPACK simulations. We monitored the soil and snow thermal regimes and sampled physical properties of the snowpack under the canopy and in two forest gaps during an exceptionally low-snow and warm winter, projected to occur more frequently in the future, and during a winter with conditions close to normal. We observe that snowmelt was earlier but slower, top soil layers were cooler, and gradient metamorphism was enhanced during the low-snow and warm winter. However, we observe that snowmelt duration increased in forest gaps, that soil freezing was enhanced only under the canopy, and that snow permeability increased more strongly under the canopy than in either gap. Our results highlight that snow accumulation and melt dynamics are controlled by meteorological conditions, soil freezing is controlled by forest structure, and snow properties are controlled by both weather forcing and canopy discontinuity. Overall, observations and simulations suggest that the exceptionally low spring streamflow in the winter of 2020–2120 was mainly driven by low snow accumulation, slow snowmelt, and low precipitation in April and May rather than enhanced percolation through the snowpack and soil freezing.

Fiscal decentralization and natural hazard risks - Escaleras, Monica; Register, Charles A. (Public Choice, 2012)
At least to some extent due to pressure from international donors, many countries have become more fiscally decentralized the underlying premise being that greater decentralization might improve the provision of local public goods and services. We test this proposition by determining whether relatively more decentralized countries fare better when natural disasters strike in terms of its effects on the population. Overall, we find evidence supporting our maintained hypothesis, though the effect appears much more robust in developing countries.

Natural Disasters in Developing Countries - Fiala, Oliver (2017)
Based on a statistical overview of natural disasters, this chapter presents the severe economic and social impacts in terms of human life, livelihoods and physical capital, with short- and long-term consequences for economic growth and development. Furthermore, the highly complex relationship between natural disasters and the level of a country’s development will be analysed.

Disaster disparities and differential recovery in New Orleans - Finch, Christina; Emrich, Christopher T.; Cutter, Susan L. (Population and Environment, 2010)
The historical disparities in the socio-demographic structure of New Orleans shaped the social vulnerability of local residents and their responses to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. These disparities, derived from race, class, gender, and age differences, have resulted in the uneven impact of the catastrophe on various communities in New Orleans, and importantly, their ability to recover. This article examines how the pre-existing social vulnerabilities within New Orleans interacted with the level of flood exposure to produce inequities in the socio-spatial patterns of recovery. Utilizing a combination of statistical and spatial approaches, we found a distinct geographic pattern to the recovery suggesting that the social burdens and impacts from Hurricane Katrina are uneven—the less flooded and less vulnerable areas are recovering faster than tracts with more vulnerable populations and higher levels of flooding. However, there is a more nuanced story, which suggests that it is neighborhoods in the mid-range of social vulnerability where recovery is lagging. While private resources and government programs help groups in the high and low categories of social vulnerability, the middle group shows the slowest rates of recovery. Further, it appears that the congressionally funded State of Louisiana Road Home Program (designed to provide compensation to Louisiana’s homeowners who suffered impacts by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita for the damage to their home) is not having a significant effect in stimulating recovery within the city.

Using the ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets for river water temperature modelling in a data-scarce region - Gatien, Philippe; Arsenault, Richard; Martel, Jean-Luc; St-Hilaire, André (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2023)

A 10 km North American Precipitation and Land Surface Reanalysis Based on the GEM Atmospheric Model - Gasset, Nicolas; Fortin, Vincent; Dimitrijevic, Milena; Carrera, Marco; Bilodeau, Bernard; Muncaster, Ryan; Gaborit, Étienne; Roy, Guy; Pentcheva, Nedka; Bulat, Maxim; Wang, Xihong; Pavlovic, Radenko; et al. (Hydrometeorology/Modelling approaches, 2021)
Abstract. Environment and Climate Change Canada has initiated the production of a 1980–2018, 10 km, North American precipitation and surface reanalysis. ERA-Interim is used to initialize the Global Deterministic Reforecast System (GDRS) at a 39 km resolution. Its output is then dynamically downscaled to 10 km by the Regional Deterministic Reforecast System (RDRS). Coupled with the RDRS, the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) and Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) are used to produce surface and precipitation analyses. All systems used are close to operational model versions and configurations. In this study, a 7-year sample of the reanalysis (2011–2017) is evaluated. Verification results show that the skill of the RDRS is stable over time, and equivalent to that of the current operational system. The impact of the coupling between RDRS and CaLDAS is explored using an early version of the reanalysis system which was run at 15 km resolution for the period 2010–2014, with and without the use of CaLDAS. Significant improvements are observed with CaLDAS in the lower troposphere and surface layer, especially for the 850 hPa dew point and absolute temperatures in summer. Precipitation is further improved through an offline precipitation analysis which allows the assimilation of additional observations of 24-h precipitation totals. The final dataset should be of particular interest for hydrological applications focusing on trans-boundary and northern watersheds, where existing products often show discontinuities at the border and assimilate very few – if any – precipitation observations.

Seasonal Variation of the Physico-chemical Composition of Ottawa River Waters in the St. Lawrence River - Frenette, Jean-Jacques; Assani, Ali A. (2018)
The goal of this study is to compare the seasonal variability of 12 physicochemical characteristics of waters in the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Rivers (SLR). Water samples were collected on board the research vessel Lampsillis in the spring (May), summer (August), and fall (October) of 2006 at four stations located downstream from the confluence of the two rivers. Temperature and total nitrogen values varied significantly for the three seasons. In contrast, seasonal values of light extinction coefficient and turbidity do not show any significant variation. The values of the other characteristics varied significantly only for one season. Comparison of these data with those measured in 1994–1996 reveals a net warming of the waters and a significant increase in nitrite-nitrate concentrations due to the increasing use of nitrogen-bearing fertilizers by farmers in Quebec. Concentrations of these two substances are higher than the limits set by the government of Quebec for water quality in rivers.

Trends of ice breakup date in south‐central Ontario - Fu, Congsheng; Yao, Huaxia (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015)
Abstract Large‐scale ice phenology studies have revealed overall patterns of later freeze, earlier breakup, and shorter duration of ice in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there have been few studies regarding the trends, including their spatial patterns, in ice phenology for individual waterbodies on a local or small regional scale, although the coherence of ice phenology has been shown to decline rapidly in the first few hundred kilometers. In this study, we extracted trends, analyzed affecting factors, and investigated relevant spatial patterns for ice breakup date time series at 10 locations with record length ≥90 years in south‐central Ontario, Canada. Wavelet methods, including the multiresolution analysis (MRA) method for nonlinear trend extraction and the wavelet coherence (WTC) method for identifying the teleconnections between large‐scale climate modes and ice breakup date, are proved to be effective in ice phenology analysis. Using MRA method, the overall trend of ice breakup date time series (1905–1991) varied from earlier ice breakup to later ice breakup, then to earlier breakup again from south to north in south‐central Ontario. Ice breakup date is closely correlated with air temperature during certain winter/spring months, as well as the last day with snow on the ground and number of snow‐on‐ground days. The influences of solar activity and Pacific North American on ice breakup were comparatively uniform across south‐central Ontario, while those of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation on ice phenology changed with distance of 50–100 km in the north‐south direction. , Key Points Wavelet methods are effective in ice phenology analysis in south‐central Ontario Coherence of ice breakup changes with distance of 50–100 km from south to north Ice breakup in Ontario is affected by solar activity, ENSO, PNA, NAO, and AO

Comparing global and local calibration schemes from a differential split-sample test perspective - Gaborit, Étienne; Ricard, Simon; Lachance-Cloutier, Simon; Anctil, François; Turcotte, Richard (Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 2015)
This work explores the performances of the hydrologic model Hydrotel, applied to 36 catchments located in the Province of Quebec, Canada. A local calibration (each catchment taken individually) scheme and a global calibration (a single parameter set sought for all catchments) scheme are compared in a differential split-sample test perspective. Such a methodology is useful to gain insights on a model’s skills under different climatic conditions, in view of its use for climate change impact studies. The model was calibrated using both schemes on five non-continuous dry and cold years and then evaluated on five dissimilar humid and warm years. Results indicate that, as expected, local calibration leads to better performances than the global one. However, global calibration achieves satisfactory simulations while producing a better temporal robustness (i.e., model transposability to periods with different climatic conditions). Global calibration, in opposition to local calibration, thus imposes spatial consis...

Ice accumulation at a water intake: a case study on the Mille-Iles River, Québec - Ghobrial, Tadros; Pierre, Amandine; Boyd, Sean; Loewen, Mark (Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2023)
The blockage of water intakes by ice is recurrent in northern rivers during winter. Previous field studies have monitored field conditions leading to ice blockage and provided a review of mitigations methods. However, to improve the efficacy of these measures, the mechanisms that create the blockage need to be locally measured. For this purpose, a field campaign was implemented to monitor a water intake on the Mille-Iles River at Terrebonne, Quebec, during the winter of 2020–2021. Results from this study showed that ice accumulation on the trash rack had an average growth rate of 1.35 cm/h and reached a maximum thickness of 24 cm. The release rate of these trash rack accumulation events was on average 1.8 cm/h, which is 30% faster than the deposition rate. A minimum cumulative degree minutes of supercooling of 4.5 °C.min was required for the start of a trash-rack ice-accumulation event.

State and Trends in Adaptation Report 2022. Adaptation at the Core of a Prosperous Africa in an Uncertain and Warming World - Global Center on Adaptation (2022)
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Novembre_2022

Novel Dynamic Technique, Nano-DIHM, for Rapid Detection of Oil, Heavy Metals, and Biological Spills in Aquatic Systems - Hall, Ryan; Pal, Devendra; Ariya, Parisa A. (Analytical Chemistry, 2022)

Modeling sustainability visions: A case study of multi-scale food systems in Southwestern Ontario - Halbe, Johannes; Adamowski, Jan (Journal of Environmental Management, 2019)

Quantile-based downscaling of rainfall extremes: Notes on methodological functionality, associated uncertainty and application in practice - Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Nazemi, Ali; Adamowski, Jan; Nguyen, Truong-Huy; Van-Nguyen, Van-Thanh (Advances in Water Resources, 2019)

Hydrological dynamics of prairie pothole wetlands: Dominant processes and landscape controls under contrasted conditions - Haque, Aminul; Ali, Genevieve; Badiou, Pascal (Hydrological Processes, 2018)
Abstract Numerous studies have examined the impact of prairie pothole wetlands on overall watershed dynamics. However, very few have looked at individual wetland dynamics across a continuum of alteration status using subdaily hydrometric data. Here, the importance of surface and subsurface water storage dynamics in the prairie pothole region was documented by (1) characterizing surface fill–spill dynamics in intact and consolidated wetlands; (2) quantifying water‐table fluctuations and the occurrence of overland flow downslope of fully drained wetlands; (3) assessing the relation (or lack thereof) between intact, consolidated or drained wetland hydrological behaviour, and stream dynamics; and (4) relating wetland hydrological behaviour to landscape characteristics. Focus was on southwestern Manitoba, Canada, where ten intact, three consolidated, seven fully drained wetlands, and a nearby creek were monitored over two years with differing antecedent storage conditions. Hourly hydrological time series were used to compute behavioural metrics reflective of year‐specific and season‐specific wetland dynamics. Behavioural metrics were then correlated to wetland physical characteristics to identify landscape controls on wetland hydrology. Predictably, more frequent spillage or overland flow was observed when antecedent storage was high. Consolidated wetlands had a high degree of water permanence and a greater frequency of fill–spill events than intact wetlands. Shallow and highly responsive water tables were present downslope of fully drained wetlands. Potential wetland–stream connectivity was also inferred via time‐series analysis, while some landscape characteristics (e.g., wetland surface, catchment area, and storage volume) strongly correlated with wetland behavioural metrics. The nonstationarity of dominant processes was, however, evident through the lack of consistent correlations across seasons. This, therefore, highlights the importance of combining multiyear high‐frequency hydrometric data and detailed landscape analyses in wetland hydrology studies.

The Suburban Origins of Redlining: A Canadian Case Study, 1935-54 - Harris, Richard; Forrester, Doris (Urban Studies, 2003)
Redlining occurs when institutions decline to make mortgage loans in specific areas. The practice originated in the 1930s, when federal agencies encouraged lenders to rate neighbourhoods for mortgage risk. Since the 1960s, especially in the US, it has been associated with disinvestment, racial discrimination and neighbourhood decline. It has always been viewed as a feature of the inner city. Historical evidence indicates that across Canada the first areas to be redlined were the less-desirable suburbs. Land registry and property assessment data establish the emergent patterns in Hamilton, Ontario. Between 1931 and 1951, institutional lending became a social norm first on new dwellings in suburbs. Individual lenders, previously dominant, were relegated to older inner-city properties or cheaper dwellings in less-desirable suburbs. In 1931, there were only minor geographical variations in the incidence of mortgage finance, and specifically of institutional financing, across the urban area. By 1951, lending institutions, led by insurance companies, were discriminating sharply in favour of the West End, the Mountain and Bartonville, and against those parts of the East End that were unserviced or close to lakefront industry. The evidence for Hamilton confirms that in Canada redlining originated in the suburbs. The same may also be true for US metropolitan areas, although the institutional context was different and relevant data are lacking.

The Multibudget Soil, Vegetation, and Snow (SVS) Scheme for Land Surface Parameterization: Offline Warm Season Evaluation - Husain, Syed Zahid; Alavi, Nasim; Bélair, Stéphane; Carrera, Marco L.; Zhang, Shunli; Fortin, Vincent; Abrahamowicz, Maria; Gauthier, Nathalie (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2016)
AbstractA new land surface parameterization scheme, named the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow (SVS) scheme, was recently developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada to replace the operationally used Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) scheme. The new scheme is designed to address a number of weaknesses and limitations of ISBA that have been identified over the last decade. Unlike ISBA, which calculates a single energy budget for the different land surface components, SVS introduces a new tiling approach that includes separate energy budgets for bare ground, vegetation, and two different snowpacks (over bare ground and low vegetation and under high vegetation). The inclusion of a photosynthesis module as an option to determine the surface stomatal resistance is another significant addition in SVS. The representation of vertical water transport through soil has also been substantially improved in SVS with the introduction of multiple soil layers. Overall, offline simulations conduc...

Loss and damage attribution - Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Auffhammer, Maximilian; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hansen, Gerrit (Nature Climate Change, 2013)
If research on attribution of extreme weather events is to inform emerging climate change policies, it needs to diagnose all of the components of risk.

On the Progressive Attenuation of Finescale Orography Contributions to the Vertical Coordinate Surfaces within a Terrain-Following Coordinate System - Husain, Syed Zahid; Girard, Claude; Separovic, Leo; Plante, André; Corvec, Shawn (Monthly Weather Review, 2020)
Abstract A modified hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate has recently been implemented within the Global Environmental Multiscale atmospheric model that introduces separately controlled height-dependent progressive decaying of the small- and large-scale orography contributions on the vertical coordinate surfaces. The new vertical coordinate allows for a faster decay of the finescale orography imprints on the coordinate surfaces with increasing height while relaxing the compression of the lowest model levels over complex terrain. A number of tests carried out—including experiments involving Environment and Climate Change Canada’s operational regional and global deterministic prediction systems—demonstrate that the new vertical coordinate effectively eliminates terrain-induced spurious generation and amplification of upper-air vertical motion and kinetic energy without increasing the computational cost. Results also show potential improvements in precipitation over complex terrain.

Serious Games as Planning Support Systems: Learning from Playing Maritime Spatial Planning Challenge 2050 - Jean, Steven; Gilbert, Laura; Medema, Wietske; Keijser, Xander; Mayer, Igor; Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan (Water, 2018)
The inherent complexity of planning at sea, called maritime spatial planning (MSP), requires a planning approach where science (data and evidence) and stakeholders (their engagement and involvement) are integrated throughout the planning process. An increasing number of innovative planning support systems (PSS) in terrestrial planning incorporate scientific models and data into multi-player digital game platforms with an element of role-play. However, maritime PSS are still early in their innovation curve, and the use and usefulness of existing tools still needs to be demonstrated. Therefore, the authors investigate the serious game, MSP Challenge 2050, for its potential use as an innovative maritime PSS and present the results of three case studies on participant learning in sessions of game events held in Newfoundland, Venice, and Copenhagen. This paper focusses on the added values of MSP Challenge 2050, specifically at the individual, group, and outcome levels, through the promotion of the knowledge co-creation cycle. During the three game events, data was collected through participant surveys. Additionally, participants of the Newfoundland event were audiovisually recorded to perform an interaction analysis. Results from survey answers and the interaction analysis provide evidence that MSP Challenge 2050 succeeds at the promotion of group and individual learning by translating complex information to players and creating a forum wherein participants can share their thoughts and perspectives all the while (co-) creating new types of knowledge. Overall, MSP Challenge and serious games in general represent promising tools that can be used to facilitate the MSP process.

Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models - Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi (Climate Dynamics, 2018)
This study evaluates projected changes to rain-on-snow (ROS) characteristics (i.e., frequency, rainfall amount, and runoff) for the future 2041–2070 period with respect to the current 1976–2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Prior to assessing projected changes, the two RCMs are evaluated by comparing ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations with available observations, and results indicate that both models reproduce reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of ROS event frequency and other related features. Analysis of current and future simulations suggest general increases in ROS characteristics during the November–March period for most regions of Canada and for northwestern US for the future period, due to an increase in the rainfall frequency with warmer air temperatures in future. Future ROS runoff is often projected to increase more than future ROS rainfall amounts, particularly for northeastern North America, during snowmelt months, as ROS events usually accelerate snowmelt. The simulations show that ROS event is a primary flood generating mechanism over most of Canada and north-western and -central US for the January–May period for the current period and this is projected to continue in the future period. More focused analysis over selected basins shows decreases in future spring runoff due to decreases in both snow cover and ROS runoff. The above results highlight the need to take into consideration ROS events in water resources management adaptation strategies for future climate.

The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions - Kahn, Matthew E. (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005)
Using a new data set on annual deaths from disasters in 73 nations from 1980 to 2002, this paper tests several hypotheses concerning natural-disaster mitigation. Though richer nations do not experience fewer natural disasters than poorer nations, richer nations do suffer less death from disaster. Economic development provides implicit insurance against nature's shocks. Democracies and nations with higher-quality institutions suffer less death from natural disaster. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disasters such as floods, these results have implications for the incidence of global warming.

Future flow and water temperature scenarios in an impounded drainage basin: implications for summer flow and temperature management downstream of the dam - Khorsandi, Mostafa; St-Hilaire, André; Arsenault, Richard; Martel, Jean-Luc; Larabi, Samah; Schnorbus, Markus; Zwiers, Francis (Climatic Change, 2023)

Multisite calibration of a semi-distributed hydrologic and thermal model in a large Canadian watershed - Khorsandi, Mostafa; St-Hilaire, Andre; Arsenault, Richard (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2022)

Soil Organic Matter as Catalyst of Crop Resource Capture - King, Alison E.; Ali, Genevieve A.; Gillespie, Adam W.; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia (Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2020)

A statistical approach for the estimation of water quality characteristics of ungauged streams/watersheds under stationary conditions - Khalil, Bahaa; Adamowski, Jan; Abdin, Alaa; Elsaadi, Aiman (Journal of Hydrology, 2019)

Climate gentrification: from theory to empiricism in Miami-Dade County, Florida - Keenan, Jesse M; Hill, Thomas; Gumber, Anurag (Environmental Research Letters, 2018)

Improved Weather Generator Algorithm for Multisite Simulation of Precipitation and Temperature - King, Leanna M.; McLeod, A. Ian; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Journal of The American Water Resources Association, 2015)
The KnnCAD Version 4 weather generator algorithm for nonparametric, multisite simulations of temperature and precipitation data is presented. The K-nearest neighbor weather generator essentially reshuffles the historical data, with replacement. In KnnCAD Version 4, a block resampling scheme is introduced to preserve the temporal correlation structure in temperature data. Perturbation of the reshuffled variable data is also added to enhance the generation of extreme values. The Upper Thames River Basin in Ontario, Canada isused as a case study and the model is shown to simulate effectively the historical characteristics at the site. The KnnCAD Version 4 approach is shown to improve on the previous versions of the model and offers a major advantage over many parametric and semiparametric weather generators in that multisite use can be easily achieved without making statistical assumptions dealing with the spatial correlations and probability distributions of each variable.

Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters? - Kellenberg, Derek K.; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq (Journal of Urban Economics, 2008)

Ice processes in culverts with two fish passage designs: a case study in southern Quebec - Ladouceur, Jean-Robert; Ghobrial, Tadros (2023)
According to Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, culverts and other stream crossings must be designed to ensure fish passage. The effects of ice processes on these fish passage designs have never been assessed. This study is the first to document ice processes on two different types of fish passage designs (streambed simulation and baffle). The results of a 2 year field monitoring campaign showed that the culvert simulating the streambed retains a natural ice regime, i.e., both freeze-up and break-up occurred concurrently with the rest of the stream, while multiple supercooling events were recorded under a thin ice cover. As for the culvert with baffles, it was observed that the ice cover formed earlier and stayed longer in the culvert, which can create a barrier for fish transiting through them.

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing - Laurens M. Bouwer; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (Environmental Research Letters, 2018)
Changes in society's vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (g10000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

Geovisualization of Hydrological Flow in Hexagonal Grid Systems - Li, Mingke; McGrath, Heather; Stefanakis, Emmanuel (Geographies, 2022)
Recent research has extended conventional hydrological algorithms into a hexagonal grid and noted that hydrological modeling on a hexagonal mesh grid outperformed that on a rectangular grid. Among the hydrological products, flow routing grids are the base of many other hydrological simulations, such as flow accumulation, watershed delineation, and stream networks. However, most of the previous research adopted the D6 algorithm, which is analogous to the D8 algorithm over a rectangular grid, to produce flow routing. This paper explored another four methods regarding generating flow directions in a hexagonal grid, based on four algorithms of slope aspect computation. We also developed and visualized hexagonal-grid-based hydrological operations, including flow accumulation, watershed delineation, and hydrological indices computation. Experiments were carried out across multiple grid resolutions with various terrain roughness. The results showed that flow direction can vary among different approaches, and the impact of such variation can propagate to flow accumulation, watershed delineation, and hydrological indices production, which was reflected by the cell-wise comparison and visualization. This research is practical for hydrological analysis in hexagonal, hierarchical grids, such as Discrete Global Grid Systems, and the developed operations can be used in flood modeling in the real world.

Population Displacement and Housing Dilemmas Due to Catastrophic Disasters - Levine, Joyce N.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Sapat, Alka (Journal of Planning Literature, 2007)
As Hurricane Katrina revealed, coastal communities have become far more vulnerable to tropical storms and the long-term displacement of residents. Yet, because the emergency management model presumes that recovery quickly follows response, governments focus only on short-term, localized displacement. However, long-term and long-distance displacement exposes a gray area between immediate shelter and permanent housing, along with concerns about vulnerability, housing availability, and land development. We begin this article by discussing the transition between response and recovery. We then review literature regarding social vulnerability, displacement, provision of temporary housing, households' return decisions, and disaster-driven land development and housing construction processes. We close with thoughts on future research to increase planners' understanding of the issues involved and to help them craft effective policies.

The Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 4: the Great Lakes (GRIP-GL) - Mai, Juliane; Shen, Hongren; Tolson, Bryan A.; Gaborit, Étienne; Arsenault, Richard; Craig, James R.; Fortin, Vincent; Fry, Lauren M.; Gauch, Martin; Klotz, Daniel; Kratzert, Frederik; O'Brien, Nicole; et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2022)
Abstract. Model intercomparison studies are carried out to test and compare the simulated outputs of various model setups over the same study domain. The Great Lakes region is such a domain of high public interest as it not only resembles a challenging region to model with its transboundary location, strong lake effects, and regions of strong human impact but is also one of the most densely populated areas in the USA and Canada. This study brought together a wide range of researchers setting up their models of choice in a highly standardized experimental setup using the same geophysical datasets, forcings, common routing product, and locations of performance evaluation across the 1×106 km2 study domain. The study comprises 13 models covering a wide range of model types from machine-learning-based, basin-wise, subbasin-based, and gridded models that are either locally or globally calibrated or calibrated for one of each of the six predefined regions of the watershed. Unlike most hydrologically focused model intercomparisons, this study not only compares models regarding their capability to simulate streamflow (Q) but also evaluates the quality of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET), surface soil moisture (SSM), and snow water equivalent (SWE). The latter three outputs are compared against gridded reference datasets. The comparisons are performed in two ways – either by aggregating model outputs and the reference to basin level or by regridding all model outputs to the reference grid and comparing the model simulations at each grid-cell. The main results of this study are as follows: The comparison of models regarding streamflow reveals the superior quality of the machine-learning-based model in the performance of all experiments; even for the most challenging spatiotemporal validation, the machine learning (ML) model outperforms any other physically based model. While the locally calibrated models lead to good performance in calibration and temporal validation (even outperforming several regionally calibrated models), they lose performance when they are transferred to locations that the model has not been calibrated on. This is likely to be improved with more advanced strategies to transfer these models in space. The regionally calibrated models – while losing less performance in spatial and spatiotemporal validation than locally calibrated models – exhibit low performances in highly regulated and urban areas and agricultural regions in the USA. Comparisons of additional model outputs (AET, SSM, and SWE) against gridded reference datasets show that aggregating model outputs and the reference dataset to the basin scale can lead to different conclusions than a comparison at the native grid scale. The latter is deemed preferable, especially for variables with large spatial variability such as SWE. A multi-objective-based analysis of the model performances across all variables (Q, AET, SSM, and SWE) reveals overall well-performing locally calibrated models (i.e., HYMOD2-lumped) and regionally calibrated models (i.e., MESH-SVS-Raven and GEM-Hydro-Watroute) due to varying reasons. The machine-learning-based model was not included here as it is not set up to simulate AET, SSM, and SWE. All basin-aggregated model outputs and observations for the model variables evaluated in this study are available on an interactive website that enables users to visualize results and download the data and model outputs.

The sensitivity of simulated streamflow to individual hydrologic processes across North America - Mai, Juliane; Craig, James R.; Tolson, Bryan A.; Arsenault, Richard (Nature Communications, 2022)
Abstract Streamflow sensitivity to different hydrologic processes varies in both space and time. This sensitivity is traditionally evaluated for the parameters specific to a given hydrologic model simulating streamflow. In this study, we apply a novel analysis over more than 3000 basins across North America considering a blended hydrologic model structure, which includes not only parametric, but also structural uncertainties. This enables seamless quantification of model process sensitivities and parameter sensitivities across a continuous set of models. It also leads to high-level conclusions about the importance of water cycle components on streamflow predictions, such as quickflow being the most sensitive process for streamflow simulations across the North American continent. The results of the 3000 basins are used to derive an approximation of sensitivities based on physiographic and climatologic data without the need to perform expensive sensitivity analyses. Detailed spatio-temporal inputs and results are shared through an interactive website.

Evaluating Hydrologic Response in Tile‐Drained Landscapes: Implications for Phosphorus Transport - Macrae, M. L.; Ali, G. A.; King, K. W.; Plach, J. M.; Pluer, W. T.; Williams, M.; Morison, M. Q.; Tang, W. (Journal of Environmental Quality, 2019)
Phosphorus (P) loss in agricultural discharge has typically been associated with surface runoff; however, tile drains have been identified as a key P pathway due to preferential transport. Identifying when and where these pathways are active may establish high‐risk periods and regions that are vulnerable for P loss. A synthesis of high‐frequency, runoff data from eight cropped fields across the Great Lakes region of North America over a 3‐yr period showed that both surface and tile flow occurred year‐round, although tile flow occurred more frequently. The relative timing of surface and tile flow activation was classified into four response types to infer runoff‐generation processes. Response types were found to vary with season and soil texture. In most events across all sites, tile responses preceded surface flow, whereas the occurrence of surface flow prior to tile flow was uncommon. The simultaneous activation of pathways, indicating rapid connectivity through the vadose zone, was seldom observed at the loam sites but occurred at clay sites during spring and summer. Surface flow at the loam sites was often generated as saturation‐excess, a phenomenon rarely observed on the clay sites. Contrary to expectations, significant differences in P loads in tiles were not apparent under the different response types. This may be due to the frequency of the water quality sampling or may indicate that factors other than surface‐tile hydrologic connectivity drive tile P concentrations. This work provides new insight into spatial and temporal differences in runoff mechanisms in tile‐drained landscapes. Core Ideas Activation of surface runoff and tile flow differ with soil texture and season. Timing of flow path activation was used to infer hydrological processes. Connectivity between the surface and tiles exists on clay soil during growing season. Rapid connectivity between the surface and tiles occurs less frequently on loam.

Assessing the potential impacts of dam operation on daily flow at ungauged river reaches - Mailhot, A.; Talbot, G.; Ricard, S.; Turcotte, R.; Guinard, K. (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2018)

Improved historical reconstruction of daily flows and annual maxima in gauged and ungauged basins - Martel, Jean-Luc; Arsenault, Richard; Lachance-Cloutier, Simon; Castaneda-Gonzalez, Mariana; Turcotte, Richard; Poulin, Annie (Journal of Hydrology, 2023)

CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America - Martel, J.‐L.; Brissette, F.; Troin, M.; Arsenault, R.; Chen, J.; Su, T.; Lucas‐Picher, P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2022)
Abstract A warmer climate impacts streamflows and these changes need to be quantified to assess future risk, vulnerability, and to implement efficient adaptation measures. The climate simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which have been the basis of most such assessments over the past decade, are being gradually superseded by the more recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our study portrays the added value of the CMIP6 ensemble over CMIP5 in a first North America wide comparison using 3,107 catchments. Results show a reduced spread of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the CMIP5 ensemble for temperature and precipitation projections. In terms of flow indicators, the CMIP6 driven hydrological projections result in a smaller spread of future mean and high flow values, except for mountainous areas. Overall, we assess that the CMIP6 ensemble provides a narrower band of uncertainty of future climate projections, bringing more confidence for hydrological impact studies. , Plain Language Summary Greenhouse gas emissions are causing the climate to warm significantly, which in turn impacts flows in rivers worldwide. To adapt to these changes, it is essential to quantify them and assess future risk and vulnerability. Climate models are the primary tools used to achieve this. The main data set that provides scientists with state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations is known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The fifth phase of that project (CMIP5) has been used over the past decade in multiple hydrological studies to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow. The more recent sixth phase (CMIP6) has started to generate projections, which brings the following question: is it necessary to update the hydrological impact studies performed using CMIP5 with the new CMIP6 models? To answer this question, a comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 using 3,107 catchments over North America was conducted. Results show that there is less spread in temperature and precipitation projections for CMIP6. This translates into a smaller spread of future mean, high and low flow values, except for mountainous areas. Overall, we assess that using the CMIP6 data set would provide a more concerted range of future climate projections, leading to more confident hydrological impact studies. , Key Points A comparison of hydrological impacts using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles is performed over 3,107 catchments in North America The CMIP6 ensembles provide a narrower band of uncertainty for hydrological indicators in the future It is recommended to update hydrological impact studies performed using CMIP5 with the CMIP6 ensemble

Quantification of uncertainty in the assessment of future streamflow under changing climate conditions - Mandal, Sohom; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Hydrological Processes, 2017)
Climate change has a significant influence on streamflow variation. The aim of this study is to quantify different sources of uncertainties in future streamflow projections due to climate change. For this purpose, 4 global climate models, 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways), 6 downscaling models, and a hydrologic model (UBCWM) are used. The assessment work is conducted for 2 different future time periods (2036 to 2065 and 2066 to 2095). Generalized extreme value distribution is used for the analysis of the flow frequency. Strathcona dam in the Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada, is used as a case study. The results show that the downscaling models contribute the highest amount of uncertainty to future streamflow predictions when compared to the contributions by global climate models or representative concentration pathways. It is also observed that the summer flows into Strathcona dam will decrease, and winter flows will increase in both future time periods. In addition to these, the flow magnitude becomes more uncertain for higher return periods in the Campbell River system under climate change.

Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups: A case study of New Orleans - Masozera, Michel; Bailey, Melissa; Kerchner, Charles D. (Ecological Economics, 2007)

Calibration of a 3D hydrodynamic model for a hypertidal estuary with complex irregular bathymetry using adaptive parametrization of bottom roughness and eddy viscosity - Mohammadian, Abdolvahid; Morse, Brian; Robert, Jean-Loup (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2022)

Investigation of an Arctic hypertidal estuary under summer and winter conditions : cryo-hydrodynamic and hydrokinetic implications - Mohammadian, Abdolvahid (2021)
La modélisation numérique des estuaires hypertidaux intéresse particulièrement les ingénieurs impliqués dans la navigation maritime et le développement de projets d'énergie marémotrice. Au Québec (Canada), la majorité de ces estuaires à marée extrême sont situés dans des régions isolée de l'Arctique canadien et sont souvent des lieux de résidence des communautés autochtones du Nord canadien. La présente thèse vise à mieux comprendre les processus se manifestent dans ces environnements, avec une emphase particulière sur l'importance (1) de la forte dominance des marées, (2) de l'extrême variabilité bathymétrique et (3) de l'immense forçage climatique. La thèse tente de démontrer comment les modèles numériques peuvent être utilisés pour traiter ces particularités et peuvent être la meilleure méthode disponible pour étudier leurs effets dans des environnements éloignés peu étudies. Premièrement, dans le but d'évaluer le potentiel de courant de marée en eau libre (sans glace) de l'estuaire hypertidal de la rivière Koksoak (KRE), nous avons modélisé le débit de marée en utilisant un model numérique hydrodynamique réputé (Delft3D). Différents aspects de l'hydrodynamique côtière ont été étudiés grâce à la modélisation numérique 1D2D-3D. La variabilité spatio-temporelle de la densité de puissance hydrocinétique disponible a ensuite été quantifiée. Les résultats ont révélé l'énorme potentiel (1000 MW) d'énergie marémotrice présente à plusieurs endroits le long de l'estuaire, ce qui nécessite des études numériques plus approfondies. En mettant davantage l'accent sur la modélisation numérique du site, par exemple la publication d'un Atlas des courants de marée pour aider à la navigation maritime dans le KRE, nous avons constaté que certains problèmes de modélisation des estuaires n'étaient pas abordés. Compte tenu des conditions limites précises et des mesures in situ recueillies au cours de l'hiver 2017-2018, nous avons constaté que les meilleurs résultats pour l'étalonnage du modèle (niveau d'eau) en utilisant les paramètres/options disponibles conduisaient encore à certains ordres d'imprécision. sur les conditions aux limites de formse qualité (campagnes 2017-2018) qui ont effectivement amélioré les résultats numériques, nous avons constaté que les meilleurs résultats pour l'étalonnage du modèle (niveau d'eau) en utilisant les paramètres/options disponibles étaient encore associés à certains ordres d'imprécision. Par conséquent, l'objectif du deuxième travail était d'améliorer l'efficacité de la modélisation hydrodynamique pour les environnements de marée peu profonde. Nous avons introduit quelques hypothèses décrivant pourquoi les modèles de turbulence et de rugosité disponibles ne sont pas bien adaptés à la modélisation des estuaires avec de fortes variabilités spatiales et temporelles des profondeurs de marée. En conséquence (i) un modèle de turbulence k-ε étendu pour la paramétrisation adaptative de la viscosité turbulente en fonction de la profondeur, et une approche basée sur la direction de l'écoulement pour la paramétrisation de la rugosité du lit ont été développés, incorporés dans le modèle hydrodynamique employé (Delft3D). Le modèle modifié a montré une amélioration constante des prévisions du modèle dans les stations de champ proche et de champ lointain, par rapport aux schémas de paramétrage classiques. Enfin, un aspect manquant et mal compris des estuaires de latitude nordique est l'immense impact de l'hiver sur le flux des marées. Situé à la latitude 58°, le KRE subit l'effet intensif du climat arctique pendant la majeure partie de l'année, ce qui entraîne la formation de glace estuarienne rapide sur une grande partie de sa longueur. Plus précisément, et ce qui est le plus pertinent pour cette recherche, il est important de savoir comment le long hiver affecte les potentiels hydrocinétiques des estuaires des régions froides. Ainsi, la surfusion entraîne la formation de frasil et de glace de fond qui peuvent adhérer aux pales des turbines et provoquer leur dysfonctionnement. Dans les estuaires, la surfusion a une nature transitoire complexe car le point de congélation de l'eau salée est une fonction de la salinité et de la profondeur qui est changée par les marées au cours des cycles de marée. En raison du manque de données de terrain en hiver, nous avons collecté des paramètres hydrodynamiques en utilisant de nouvelles campagne de mesures en hiver 2018. Les observations ont montré que le risque de surfusion diminue à l'intérieur de l'estuaire, car en l'absence de débit fluvial, la salinité peut s'infiltrer beaucoup plus loin dans le fleuve. À l'intérieur, une modulation apparente de ∆T (la différence entre la température de l'eau et la température de congélation de l'eau), dépendant de la marée, a été observée avec une augmentation de la température pendant des marées montantes. Cette augmentation retarderait la surfusion, ce qui est un avantage majeur pour turbines. En réglant le module Delft3D-Ice, différents scénarios ont été définis pour l'étendue et l'épaisseur de la couvert de glace, et leurs réponses hydrodynamiques ont été analysées. Il a été démontré que la glace a des impacts complexes et non uniformes sur les caractéristiques hydrodynamiques de la KRE. Surtout, le débit des prismes de marée, qui est la principale source d'élan, peut être modifiée de manière démonstrative par la couverture de glace et la glace de marée plate. Les résultats suggèrent que les zones énergétiques sont légèrement affectées par la glace pendant la plus grande partie de l'hiver. Pendant l'hiver de pointe seulement, la glace pourrait considérablement diminuer densité moyenne de puissance des courants (par exemple, la puissance moyenne est égale ou supérieure à 7 kW m-2). Ces implications cryohydrodynamiques indiquent que l'hiver arctique n'est pas un obstacle à la production d'électricité dans le fleuve Koksoak, et l'énergie marémotrice serait un avantage annuel pour Kuujjuaq

Regional Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Sites with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. - Msilini, A.; Masselot, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2020)
Hydrological systems are naturally complex and nonlinear. A large number of variables, many of which not yet well considered in regional frequency analysis (RFA), have a significant impact on hydrological dynamics and consequently on flood quantile estimates. Despite the increasing number of statistical tools used to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites, little attention has been dedicated to the development of new regional estimation (RE) models accounting for both nonlinear links and interactions between hydrological and physio-meteorological variables. The aim of this paper is to simultaneously take into account nonlinearity and interactions between variables by introducing the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) approach in RFA. The predictive performances of MARS are compared with those obtained by one of the most robust RE models: the generalized additive model (GAM). Both approaches are applied to two datasets covering 151 hydrometric stations in the province of Quebec (Canada): a standard dataset (STA) containing commonly used variables and an extended dataset (EXTD) combining STA with additional variables dealing with drainage network characteristics. Results indicate that RE models using MARS with the EXTD outperform slightly RE models using GAM. Thus, MARS seems to allow for a better representation of the hydrological process and an increased predictive power in RFA.

Coupling the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform and long short-term memory networks for irrigation flow forecasting - Mouatadid, Soukayna; Adamowski, Jan F.; Tiwari, Mukesh K.; Quilty, John M. (Agricultural Water Management, 2019)

Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections - Mudryk, Lawrence; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen E. L.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Thackeray, Chad W.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross (The Cryosphere, 2018)
The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020–2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5–10% per decade (or 15–30% in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10% per decade (30% in total) are projected across southern Canada.

Exploring disaster impacts on adaptation actions in 549 cities worldwide - Nohrstedt, Daniel; Hileman, Jacob; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Di Baldassarre, Guiliano; Parker, Charles F. (Nature Communications, 2022)
Whether disasters influence adaptation actions in cities is contested. Yet, the extant knowledge base primarily consists of single or small-N case studies, so there is no global overview of the evidence on disaster impacts and adaptation. Here, we use regression analysis to explore the effects of disaster frequency and severity on four adaptation action types in 549 cities. In countries with greater adaptive capacity, economic losses increase city-level actions targeting recently experienced disaster event types, as well as actions to strengthen general disaster preparedness. An increase in disaster frequency reduces actions targeting hazard types other than those that recently occurred, while human losses have few effects. Comparisons between cities across levels of adaptive capacity indicate a wealth effect. More affluent countries incur greater economic damages from disasters, but also have higher governance capacity, creating both incentives and opportunities for adaptation measures. While disaster frequency and severity had a limited impact on adaptation actions overall, results are sensitive to which disaster impacts, adaptation action types, and adaptive capacities are considered.

Value and Quality in the Dialectics between Human and Urban Capital of the City Networks on the Land District Scale - Nasca, Ludovica; Giuffrida, Salvatore; Trovato, Maria Rosa (Land, 2021)
This contribution proposes an inter-scalar and multi-polar analysis evaluation model of the territory of the Enna district, aimed at providing a robust axiological representation of the salient aspects of the general issue of internal areas, and therefore of the set of criticalities affecting them from the perspective of the human and urban capital they express. In the prospect of investigating the relations between urban and life quality – corresponding to the “city effect” – in the territorial context of each of the 20 municipalities of the Enna district, a hierarchical descriptive-valuation model was created, which coordinates a relevant amount of information units (data) and the corresponding attributes, indicators and indices that have been turned in aggregate value judgments attributed to each administrative land unit, from the perspectives of the criteria referred to as the main forms of the territorial capital. This is a multi-dimensional valuation model based on the Multi-Attribute Value Theory. Each survey and processing is mapped with different levels of detail at the scale of municipalities, census sections and cadastral land units. The outcome of this complex process of analysis and assessment provides multiple comparisons, revealing unexpected and sometimes counter-intuitive aspects in several municipalities, some of which are characterised by innovative prospects and opportunities for redevelopment of their historic centers. Correlations between information units at the different levels of the dendrogram have also indicated interesting trends and attitudes, whose comparisons can address territorial policies on both a local and provincial scale. Furthermore, the focus on the “cities network” is here assumed and proposed as the privileged point of observation of territory and the related aspects of the quality of life.

Disaster risk reduction and the limits of truisms: Improving the knowledge and practice interface - Nohrstedt, Daniel; Parker, Charles F.; von Uexkull, Nina; Mård, Johanna; Nyberg, Lars; Petrova, Kristina; Albrecht, Frederike; Göteman, Malin; Hileman, Jacob; Messori, Gabriele; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano (International journal of disaster risk reduction, 2021)
Abstract Action toward strengthened disaster risk reduction (DRR) ideally builds from evidence-based policymaking to inform decisions and priorities. This is a guiding principle for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), which outlines priorities for action to reduce disaster risk. However, some of these practical guidelines conceal oversimplified or unsubstantiated claims and assumptions, what we refer to as “truisms”, which, if not properly addressed, may jeopardize the long-term goal to reduce disaster risks. Thus far, much DRR research has focused on ways to bridge the gap between science and practice while devoting less attention to the premises that shape the understanding of DRR issues. In this article, written in the spirit of a perspective piece on the state of the DRR field, we utilize the SFDRR as an illustrative case to identify and interrogate ten selected truisms, from across the social and natural sciences, that have been prevalent in shaping DRR research and practice. The ten truisms concern forecasting, loss, conflict, migration, the local level, collaboration, social capital, prevention, policy change, and risk awareness. We discuss central claims associated with each truism, relate those claims to insights in recent DRR scholarship, and end with suggestions for developing the field through advances in conceptualization, measurement, and causal inference.

Exposure to natural hazard events unassociated with policy change for improved disaster risk reduction - Nohrstedt, Daniel; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Parker, Charles F.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano (Nature Communications, 2021)
Abstract Natural hazard events provide opportunities for policy change to enhance disaster risk reduction (DRR), yet it remains unclear whether these events actually fulfill this transformative role around the world. Here, we investigate relationships between the frequency (number of events) and severity (fatalities, economic losses, and affected people) of natural hazards and DRR policy change in 85 countries over eight years. Our results show that frequency and severity factors are generally unassociated with improved DRR policy when controlling for income-levels, differences in starting policy values, and hazard event types. This is a robust result that accounts for event frequency and different hazard severity indicators, four baseline periods estimating hazard impacts, and multiple policy indicators. Although we show that natural hazards are unassociated with improved DRR policy globally, the study unveils variability in policy progress between countries experiencing similar levels of hazard frequency and severity.

A multiscale and multivariate analysis of precipitation and streamflow variability in relation to ENSO, NAO and PDO - Nalley, D.; Adamowski, J.; Biswas, A.; Gharabaghi, B.; Hu, W. (Journal of Hydrology, 2019)

Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends in Chhattisgarh State, Central India over the last 115 years - Nema, Manish K.; Khare, Deepak; Adamowski, Jan; Chandniha, Surendra K. (Journal of Water and Land Development, 2018)
Abstract A quantitative and qualitative understanding of the anticipated climate-change-driven multi-scale spatio-temporal shifts in precipitation and attendant river flows is crucial to the development of water resources management approaches capable of sustaining and even improving the ecological and socioeconomic viability of rain-fed agricultural regions. A set of homogeneity tests for change point detection, non-parametric trend tests, and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to long-term gridded rainfall records of 27 newly formed districts in Chhattisgarh State, India. Illustrating the impacts of climate change, an analysis of spatial variability, multi-temporal (monthly, seasonal, annual) trends and inter-annual variations in rainfall over the last 115 years (1901–2015 mean 1360 mm·y −1 ) showed an overall decline in rainfall, with 1961 being a change point year (i.e., shift from rising to declining trend) for most districts in Chhattisgarh. Spatio-temporal variations in rainfall within the state of Chhattisgarh showed a coefficient of variation of 19.77%. Strong inter-annual and seasonal variability in regional rainfall were noted. These rainfall trend analyses may help predict future climate scenarios and thereby allow planning of effective and sustainable water resources management for the region.

Multi-method Modeling Framework for Support of Integrated Water Resources Management - Nikolic, Vladimir V.; Simonovic, Slobodan P. (Environmental Processes, 2015)
The contemporary definition of integrated water resources management (IWRM) is introduced to promote a holistic approach in water engineering practices. IWRM deals with planning, design and operation of complex systems in order to control the quantity, quality, temporal and spatial distribution of water with the main objective of meeting human and ecological needs and providing protection from water related disasters. This paper examines the existing decision making support in IWRM practice, analyses the advantages and limitations of existing tools, and, as a result, suggests a generic multi-method modeling framework that has the main goal to capture all structural complexities of, and interactions within, a water resources system. Since the traditional tools do not provide sufficient support, this framework uses multi-method simulation technique to examine the codependence between water resources system and socioeconomic environment. Designed framework consists of (i) a spatial database, (ii) a traditional process-based model to represent the physical environment and changing conditions, and (iii) an agent-based spatially explicit model of socio-economic environment. The multi-agent model provides for building virtual complex systems composed of autonomous entities, which operate on local knowledge, possess limited abilities, affect and are affected by local environment, and thus, enact the desired global system behavior. Agent-based model is used in the presented work to analyze spatial dynamics of complex physical-social-economic-biologic systems. Based on the architecture of the generic multi-method modeling framework, an operational model for the Upper Thames River basin, Southwestern Ontario, Canada, is developed in cooperation with the local conservation authority. Six different experiments are designed by combining three climate and two socio-economic scenarios to analyze spatial dynamics of a complex physical-social-economic system of the Upper Thames River basin. Obtained results show strong dependence between changes in hydrologic regime, in this case surface runoff and groundwater recharge rates, and regional socio-economic activities.

A critical review on the application of the National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index - Noori, Roohollah; Berndtsson, Ronny; Hosseinzadeh, Majid; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Abyaneh, Maryam Rabiee (Environmental Pollution, 2019)

Temporal and depth variation of water quality due to thermal stratification in Karkheh Reservoir, Iran - Noori, Roohollah; Berndtsson, Ronny; Franklin Adamowski, Jan; Rabiee Abyaneh, Maryam (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2018)

Gérer les risques climatiques et faire face aux pertes et aux dommages - OCDE (OECD, 2022)

Mapping SWE in near real time across a large territory using a particle filter - Odry, Jean; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Lachance Cloutier, Simon; Turcotte, Richard; Saint-Louis, Pierre-Yves (2020)
In snow-prone regions, snowmelt is one of the main drivers of runoff. For operational flood forecasting and mitigation, the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in near real time is necessary. In this context, in situ observations of SWE provide a valuable information. Nonetheless, the high spatial variability of snowpack characteristics makes it necessary to implement some kind of snow modelling to get a spatially continuous estimation. Data assimilation is thus a useful approach to combine information from both observation and modeling in near real-time. For example, at the provincial government of Quebec (eastern Canada), the HYDROTEL Snowpack Model is applied on a daily basis over a 0.1 degree resolution mesh covering the whole province. The modelled SWE is corrected in real time by in situ manual snow survey which are assimilated using a spatial particles filter (Cantet et al., 2019). This assimilation method improves the reliability of SWE estimation at ungauged sites. The availability of manual snow surveys is however limited both in space and time. These measurements are conducted on a bi-weekly basis in a limited number of sites. In order to further improve the temporal and spatial observation coverage, alternative sources of data should be considered. In this research, it is hypothesized that data gathered by SR50 sonic sensors can be assimilated in the spatial particle filter to improve the SWE estimation. These automatic sensors provide hourly measurements of snow depth and have been deployed in Quebec since 2005. Beforehand, probabilistic SWE estimations were derived from the SR50 snow depth measurements using an ensemble of artificial neural networks (Odry et al. 2019). Considering the nature of the data and the conversion process, the uncertainty associated with this dataset is supposed larger than for the manual snow surveys. The objective of the research is to evaluate the potential interest of adding this lower-quality information in the assimilation framework. The addition of frequent but uncertain data in the spatial particle filter required some adjustments in term of assimilation frequency and particle resampling. A reordering of the particles was implemented to maintain the spatial coherence between the different particles. With these changes, the consideration of both manual snow surveys and SR50 data in the spatial particle filter reached performances that are comparable to the initial particle filter that combines only the model and manual snow survey for estimating SWE in ungauged sites. However, the addition of SR50 data in the particle filter allows for continuous information in time, between manual snow surveys. References: Cantet, P., Boucher, M.-A., Lachance-Coutier, S., Turcotte, R., Fortin, V. (2019). Using a particle filter to estimate the spatial distribution of the snowpack water equivalent. J. Hydrometeorol, 20. Odry, J., Boucher, M.-A., Cantet,P., Lachance-Cloutier, S., Turcotte, R., St-Louis, P.-Y. (2019). Using artificial neural networks to estimate snow water equivalent from snow depth. Canadian water ressources journal (under review)

Développement d'un test d'adéquation sur les modèles d'échelle pour les maxima d'intensité de précipitations. Application aux courbes Intensité-Durée-Fréquence - Paoli, Auguste (Polytechnique Montréal, 2024)
RÉSUMÉ: Les courbes Intensité-Durée-Fréquence (IDF) sont l’outil mathématique principalement utilisé par les ingénieur(-e)s pour la modélisation des précipitations extrêmes à un endroit donné. Pour obtenir des courbes IDF fiables, des méthodes statistiques robustes sont nécessaires. L’utilisation de modèles d’échelle est indiquée pour estimer de façon plus précise les courbes IDF en réduisant le nombre de paramètres nécessaires pour modéliser le comportement ex-trême du processus de pluie. Un modèle d’échelle suppose l’existence d’une relation entre les distributions des maxima annuels d’intensité pour les différentes durées d’accumulation. Il existe différentes relations d’échelle possibles, donnant naissance à une variété de modèles. Dans ce mémoire, une procédure de test statistique est développée pour décider si un modèle d’échelle fixé est pertinent pour construire les courbes IDF à un endroit donné, basé sur les observations des maxima annuels historiques d’intensité de précipitations à cet endroit. Le test développé est une extension du test d’adéquation d’Anderson-Darling. Il implique de séparer la base de données en ensembles d’entraînement et de validation. L’ensemble d’entraînement est utilisé pour estimer les paramètres du modèle d’intérêt, et l’ensemble de validation est utilisé dans le calcul de la statistique. La distribution asymptotique de la statistique de test sous l’hypothèse nulle est établie dans un cadre général. Les quantiles de cette distribution théorique peuvent être approximés, ce qui permet de calculer analytiquement la région de rejet ainsi que la valeur-p pour le test. Dans le cas des courbes IDF, l’hypothèse nulle statue qu’un modèle d’échelle d’intérêt est adéquat. Les données sont des maxima d’intensité de précipitations. Les données correspondant à une durée d’accumulation fixée par l’utilisateur(trice) sont sélectionnées pour constituer l’ensemble de validation. Lorsque la durée choisie est la plus petite durée, les performances du test sont validées par une étude de simulation. Sous l’hypothèse nulle, le test rejette au taux nominal même pour des petits échantillons. Sous une hypothèse alternative (c’est-à-dire lorsque le modèle d’échelle utilisé pour générer les données s’écarte du modèle d’intérêt), le taux de rejet augmente avec la distance entre les modèles ainsi qu’avec la taille d’échantillon. Sur des données réelles, le test conduit à utiliser des modèles d’échelle différents à l’aéroport international Pierre-Elliott Trudeau de Montréal et à l’aérodrome Harbour de Vancouver. ABSTRACT: IDF curves are the primary mathematical tool used by engineers for modeling extreme precipitation at a given location. Reliable IDF curves require robust statistical methods. The use of scaling models allows for more precise estimations of IDF curves by reducing the num-ber of parameters needed to model the extreme behavior of the rainfall process. A scaling model assumes the existence of a relationship between the distributions of the annual inten-sity maxima accross the various accumulation durations. Diverse scaling relationships exist, giving rise to a variety of models. In this master thesis, a statistical testing procedure is developed to determine if a scaling model is suitable for constructing IDF curves at a given location, based on historical annual rain intensity maxima observed at that location. The developed test is an extension of the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test. It involves splitting the database into training and validation sets. The training set is used to estimate the parameters of the model of interest, and the validation set is used in the calculation of the test statistic. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothe-sis is established in a general framework. Quantiles of this theoretical distribution can be approximated, allowing for the analytical calculation of the rejection region as well as the p-value for the test. In the case of IDF curves, the null hypothesis states that a target scaling model is adequate. The data consist of precipitation intensity maxima. Data corresponding to a duration fixed by the user are selected to constitute the validation set. When the chosen duration is the smallest duration, the performances of the test are validated through a simulation study. Under the null hypothesis, the test maintains the nominal rejection rate even for small samples. Under an alternative hypothesis (i.e., when the scaling model used to generate the data deviates from the target model), the rejection rate increases with the discrepancy between the models as well as with the sample size. When applied to historical data, the test suggests the use of different scaling models at the Montréal Pierre-Elliott Trudeau international airport and at the Vancouver Harbour aerodrome.

Thermal exposure risk in different life stages of Chinook salmon in the Nechako River system, British Columbia - Oyinlola, Muhammed Alolade; Khorsandi, Mostafa; Mayer, Noa; Butler, Natalie; Wert, Jacey C. Van; Eliason, Erika J.; Arsenault, Richard; Brauner, Colin J.; Hinch, Scott G.; St-Hilaire, Andre (2024)
Abstract Climate change is affecting freshwater systems, leading to increased water temperatures, which is posing a threat to freshwater ecological communities. In the Nechako River, a water management program has been in place since the 1980s to maintain water temperatures at 20°C during the migration of Sockeye salmon. However, the program's effectiveness in mitigating the impacts of climate change on resident species like Chinook salmon's thermal exposure is uncertain. In this study, we utilised the CEQUEAU hydrological model and life stage-specific physiological data to evaluate the consequences of the current program on Chinook salmon's thermal exposure under two contrasting climate change and socio-economic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the thermal exposure risk is projected to be above the optimal threshold for parr and adult life stages under both scenarios relative to the 1980s. These life stages could face an increase in thermal exposure ranging from up to 2 and 5 times by 2090s relative to the 1980s during the months they occurred under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, including when the program is active (July 20th to August 20th). Additionally, our study shows that climate change will result in a substantial rise in cumulative heat degree days, ranging from 1.9 to 5.8 times (2050s) and 2.9 to 12.9 times (2090s) in comparison to the 1980s under SSP5-8.5. Our study highlights the need for a holistic approach to review the current Nechako management plan and consider all species in the Nechako River system in the face of climate change.

Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate - Oh, Seok-Geun; Sushama, Laxmi; Teufel, Bernardo (Climate Dynamics, 2020)

Introduction of the GAM model for regional low-flow frequency analysis at ungauged basins and comparison with commonly used approaches - Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Charron, Christian; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; St-Hilaire, André; Chebana, Fateh (Environmental Modelling and Software, 2018)
Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are introduced in this study for the regional estimation of low-flow characteristics at ungauged basins and compared to other approaches commonly used for this purpose. GAMs provide more flexibility in the shape of the relationships between the response and explanatory variables in comparison to classical models such as multiple linear regression (MLR). Homogeneous regions are defined here using the methods of hierarchical cluster analysis, canonical correlation analysis and region of influence. GAMs and MLR are then used within the delineated regions and also for the whole study area. In addition, a spatial interpolation method is also tested. The different models are applied for the regional estimation of summer and winter low-flow quantiles at stations in Quebec, Canada. Results show that for a given regional delineation method, GAMs provide improved performances compared to MLR.

Applying the Theory of Reliability to the Assessment of Hazard, Risk and Safety in a Hydrologic System: A Case Study in the Upper Sola River Catchment, Poland - Ozga-Zielinski, Bogdan; Adamowski, Jan; Ciupak, Maurycy (Water, 2018)

Transparency on Underlying Values is Needed for Useful Equity Measurements - Pollack, Adam; Helgeson, Casey; Kousky, Carolyn; Keller, Klaus (2023)

Mercury, selenium and arsenic concentrations in Canadian freshwater fish and a perspective on human consumption intake and risk - Ponton, Dominic E.; Ruelas-Inzunza, Jorge; Lavoie, Raphael A.; Lescord, Gretchen L.; Johnston, Thomas A.; Graydon, Jennifer A.; Reichert, Megan; Donadt, Caitlyn; Poesch, Mark; Gunn, John M.; Amyot, Marc (Journal of Hazardous Materials Advances, 2022)

Evaluation of a Coupled CFD and Multi-Body Motion Model for Ice-Structure Interaction Simulation - Pourshahbaz, Hanif; Ghobrial, Tadros; Shakibaeinia, Ahmad (Water, 2024)
The interaction of water flow, ice, and structures is common in fluvial ice processes, particularly around Ice Control Structures (ICSs) that are used to manage and prevent ice jam floods. To evaluate the effectiveness of ICSs, it is essential to understand the complex interaction between water flow, ice and the structure. Numerical modeling is a valuable tool that can facilitate such understanding. Until now, classical Eulerian mesh-based methods have not been evaluated for the simulation of ice interaction with ICS. In this paper we evaluate the capability, accuracy, and efficiency of a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and multi-body motion numerical model, based on the mesh-based FLOW-3D V.2023 R1 software for simulation of ice-structure interactions in several benchmark cases. The model’s performance was compared with results from meshless-based models (performed by others) for the same laboratory test cases that were used as a reference for the comparison. To this end, simulation results from a range of dam break laboratory experiments were analyzed, encompassing varying numbers of floating objects with distinct characteristics, both in the presence and absence of ICS, and under different downstream water levels. The results show that the overall accuracy of the FLOW-3D model under various experimental conditions resulted in a RMSE of 0.0534 as opposed to an overall RMSE of 0.0599 for the meshless methods. Instabilities were observed in the FLOW-3D model for more complex phenomena that involve open boundaries and a larger number of blocks. Although the FLOW-3D model exhibited a similar computational time to the GPU-accelerated meshless-based models, constraints on the processors speed and the number of cores available for use by the processors could limit the computational time.
Keywords: Infolettre; Infolettre_Octobre_2024

An Entropy-Based Approach to Fuzzy Multi-objective Optimization of Reservoir Water Quality Monitoring Networks Considering Uncertainties - Pourshahabi, Shokoufeh; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Raei, Ehsan; Adamowski, Jan Franklin (Water Resources Management, 2018)

Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective - Rahimpour Asenjan, Mehrad; Brissette, Francois; Martel, Jean-Luc; Arsenault, Richard (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2023)
Abstract. Efficient adaptation strategies to climate change require the estimation of future impacts and the uncertainty surrounding this estimation. Over- or underestimating future uncertainty may lead to maladaptation. Hydrological impact studies typically use a top-down approach in which multiple climate models are used to assess the uncertainty related to the climate model structure and climate sensitivity. Despite ongoing debate, impact modelers have typically embraced the concept of “model democracy”, in which each climate model is considered equally fit. The newer Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, with several models showing a climate sensitivity larger than that of Phase 5 (CMIP5) and larger than the likely range based on past climate information and understanding of planetary physics, have reignited the model democracy debate. Some have suggested that “hot” models be removed from impact studies to avoid skewing impact results toward unlikely futures. Indeed, the inclusion of these models in impact studies carries a significant risk of overestimating the impact of climate change. This large-sample study looks at the impact of removing hot models on the projections of future streamflow over 3107 North American catchments. More precisely, the variability in future projections of mean, high, and low flows is evaluated using an ensemble of 19 CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), 5 of which are deemed hot based on their global equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The results show that the reduced ensemble of 14 climate models provides streamflow projections with reduced future variability for Canada, Alaska, the Southeast US, and along the Pacific coast. Elsewhere, the reduced ensemble has either no impact or results in increased variability in future streamflow, indicating that global outlier climate models do not necessarily provide regional outlier projections of future impacts. These results emphasize the delicate nature of climate model selection, especially based on global fitness metrics that may not be appropriate for local and regional assessments.

Time-Varying Univariate and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Nonstationary Extreme Sea Level for New York City - Razmi, Ali; Mardani-Fard, Heydar Ali; Golian, Saeed; Zahmatkesh, Zahra (Environmental Processes, 2022)

Implementation of a Semi-Lagrangian Fully Implicit Time Integration of the Unified Soundproof System of Equations for Numerical Weather Prediction - Qaddouri, Abdessamad; Girard, Claude; Husain, Syed Zahid; Aider, Rabah (Monthly Weather Review, 2021)
Abstract An alternate dynamical core that employs the unified equations of A. Arakawa and C.S. Konor (2009) has been developed within Environment and Climate change Canada’s GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) atmospheric model. As in the operational GEM dynamical core, the novel core utilizes the same fully-implicit two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme for time discretization while the log-pressure-based terrain-following vertical coordinate has been slightly adapted. Overall, the new dynamical core implementation required only minor changes to the existing informatics code of the GEM model and from a computational performance perspective, the new core does not incur any significant additional cost. A broad range of tests – that include both two-dimensional idealized theoretical cases and three-dimensional deterministic forecasts covering both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic scales–have been carried out to evaluate the performance of the new dynamical core. For all the tested cases, when compared to the operational GEM model, the new dynamical core based on the unified equations has been found to produce statistically equivalent results. These results imply that the unified equations can be adopted for operational numerical weather prediction that would employ a single soundproof system of equations to produce reliable forecasts for all meteorological scales of interest with negligible changes for the computational overhead.

Asynchronous Hydroclimatic Modeling for the Construction of Physically Based Streamflow Projections in a Context of Observation Scarcity - Ricard, Simon; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Anctil, François (Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020)

A stochastic wavelet-based data-driven framework for forecasting uncertain multiscale hydrological and water resources processes - Quilty, John; Adamowski, Jan (Environmental Modelling & Software, 2020)

Forcing the Penman-Montheith Formulation with Humidity, Radiation, and Wind Speed Taken from Reanalyses, for Hydrologic Modeling - Ricard, Simon; Anctil, François (Water, 2019)
The Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ET0) formulation was forced with humidity, radiation, and wind speed (HRW) fields simulated by four reanalyses in order to simulate hydrologic processes over six mid-sized nivo-pluvial watersheds in southern Quebec, Canada. The resulting simulated hydrologic response is comparable to an empirical ET0 formulation based exclusively on air temperature. However, Penman-Montheith provides a sounder representation of the existing relations between evapotranspiration fluctuations and climate drivers. Correcting HRW fields significantly improves the hydrologic bias over the pluvial period (June to November). The latter did not translate into an increase of the hydrologic performance according to the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. The suggested approach allows for the implementation of physically-based ET0 formulations where HRW observations are insufficient for the calibration and validation of hydrologic models and a potential reinforcement of the confidence affecting the projection of low flow regimes and water availability.

A Stochastic Data‐Driven Ensemble Forecasting Framework for Water Resources: A Case Study Using Ensemble Members Derived From a Database of Deterministic Wavelet‐Based Models - Quilty, John; Adamowski, Jan; Boucher, Marie‐Amélie (Water Resources Research, 2019)
Abstract In water resources applications (e.g., streamflow, rainfall‐runoff, urban water demand [UWD], etc.), ensemble member selection and ensemble member weighting are two difficult yet important tasks in the development of ensemble forecasting systems. We propose and test a stochastic data‐driven ensemble forecasting framework that uses archived deterministic forecasts as input and results in probabilistic water resources forecasts. In addition to input data and (ensemble) model output uncertainty, the proposed approach integrates both ensemble member selection and weighting uncertainties, using input variable selection and data‐driven methods, respectively. Therefore, it does not require one to perform ensemble member selection and weighting separately. We applied the proposed forecasting framework to a previous real‐world case study in Montreal, Canada, to forecast daily UWD at multiple lead times. Using wavelet‐based forecasts as input data, we develop the Ensemble Wavelet‐Stochastic Data‐Driven Forecasting Framework, the first multiwavelet ensemble stochastic forecasting framework that produces probabilistic forecasts. For the considered case study, several variants of Ensemble Wavelet‐Stochastic Data‐Driven Forecasting Framework, produced using different input variable selection methods (partial correlation input selection and Edgeworth Approximations‐based conditional mutual information) and data‐driven models (multiple linear regression, extreme learning machines, and second‐order Volterra series models), are shown to outperform wavelet‐ and nonwavelet‐based benchmarks, especially during a heat wave (first time studied in the UWD forecasting literature). , Key Points A stochastic data‐driven ensemble framework is introduced for probabilistic water resources forecasting Ensemble member selection and weighting uncertainties are explicitly considered alongside input data and model output uncertainties Wavelet‐based model outputs are used as input to the framework for an urban water demand forecasting study outperforming benchmark methods

Estimates of gridded relative changes in 24-h extreme rainfall intensities based on pooled frequency analysis - Requena, Ana I.; Burn, Donald H.; Coulibaly, Paulin (Journal of Hydrology, 2019)

A functional framework for flow-duration-curve and daily streamflow estimation at ungauged sites - Requena, Ana Isabel; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. (Advances in Water Resources, 2018)
Abstract Flow duration curves (FDC) are used to obtain daily streamflow series at ungauged sites. In this study, functional multiple regression (FMR) is proposed for FDC estimation. Its natural framework for dealing with curves allows obtaining the FDC as a whole instead of a limited number of single points. FMR assessment is performed through a case study in Quebec, Canada. FMR provides a better mean FDC estimation when obtained over sites by considering simultaneously all FDC quantiles in the assessment of each given site. However, traditional regression provides a better mean FDC estimation when obtained over given FDC quantiles by considering all sites in the assessment of each quantile separately. Mean daily streamflow estimation is similar; yet FMR provides an improved estimation for most sites. Furthermore, FMR represents a more suitable framework and provides a number of practical advantages, such as insight into descriptor influence on FDC quantiles. Hence, traditional regression may be preferred if only few FDC quantiles are of interest; whereas FMR would be more suitable if a large number of FDC quantiles is of interest, and therefore to estimate daily streamflows.

Addressing the incorrect usage of wavelet-based hydrological and water resources forecasting models for real-world applications with best practices and a new forecasting framework - Quilty, John; Adamowski, Jan (Journal of Hydrology, 2018)

A New Approach to Predict Daily pH in Rivers Based on the “à trous” Redundant Wavelet Transform Algorithm - Rajaee, Taher; Ravansalar, Masoud; Adamowski, Jan F.; Deo, Ravinesh C. (Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 2018)

Institutions and the losses from natural disasters - Raschky, Paul A. (Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2008)
Abstract. Natural hazards can be seen as a function of a specific natural process and human (economic) activity. Whereby the bulk of literature on natural hazard management has its focus on the natural process, an increasing number of scholars is emphasizing the importance of human activity in this context. Existing literature has identified certain socio-economic factors that determine the impact of natural disasters on society. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the effects of the institutional framework that influences human behavior by setting incentives and to point out the importance of institutional vulnerability. Results from an empirical investigation of large scale natural disasters between 1984 and 2004 show that countries with better institutions experience less victims and lower economic losses from natural disasters. In addition, the results suggest a non-linear relationship between economic development and economic disaster losses. The suggestions in this paper have implications for the discussion on how to deal with the adverse effects of natural hazards and how to develop efficient adaption strategies.

Recherche en Prévision Numérique Contributions to Numerical Weather Prediction - Ritchie, H.; Bélair, Stéphane; Bernier, Natacha B.; Buehner, Mark; Charron, Martin; Fortin, Vincent; Garand, L.; Houtekamer, P.; Husain, Syed Zahid; Laroche, Stéphane; Lemieux, Jean-Franois; Lin, Hai; et al. (Atmosphere-ocean, 2022)
This is a review article invited by Atmosphere-Ocean to document the contributions of Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN) to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). It is structured as a historical review and documents RPN’s contributions to numerical methods, numerical modelling, data assimilation, and ensemble systems, with a look ahead to potential future systems. Through this review, we highlight the evolution of RPN’s contributions. We begin with early NWP efforts and continue through to environmental predictions with a broad range of applications. This synthesis is intended to be a helpful reference, consolidating developments and generating broader interest for future work on NWP in Canada.

Assessing structural, functional and effective hydrologic connectivity with brain neuroscience methods: State-of-the-art and research directions - Rinderer, Michael; Ali, Genevieve; Larsen, Laurel G. (Earth-Science Reviews, 2018)

Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach - Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Alizadeh, Farhad; Adamowski, Jan (Environmental Research, 2018)

A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output - Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert (Water Resources Research, 2016)
The moisture maximization approach to estimate the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) has a simple technique for controlling the risk of overestimating PMP: the maximization ratio is limited by an upper bound. The upper bound limit depends on storm records and watershed characteristics. However, it is not readily available in many watersheds. A robust scientific justification for limiting the maximization ratio is missing. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to estimate the maximization ratio which does not impose an upper limit to the ratio. The new approach, which uses regional climate model data, is based on constructing annual maximum precipitable water time series with precipitable water values for which atmospheric variables are similar to the original event to be maximized. These time series are then used to estimate the 100-year return period precipitable water value required to calculate the maximization ratio. The new approach was tested in three watersheds in the province of Quebec, Canada. Results showed that maximization ratio values were lower than the proposed upper bound value for these watersheds. In comparison to the approach using an upper bound, this proposed approach reduced PMP in these watersheds by 11%. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Comparing a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network with a physically-based hydrological model for streamflow forecasting over a Canadian catchment - Sabzipour, Behmard; Arsenault, Richard; Troin, Magali; Martel, Jean-Luc; Brissette, François; Brunet, Frédéric; Mai, Juliane (Journal of Hydrology, 2023)
Keywords: Brunet_Alain

Metadata record for: A comprehensive, multisource database for hydrometeorological modeling of 14,425 North American watersheds - Scientific Data Curation Team (2020)
This dataset contains key characteristics about the data described in the Data Descriptor A comprehensive, multisource database for hydrometeorological modeling of 14,425 North American watersheds. Contents: 1. human readable metadata summary table in CSV format 2. machine readable metadata file in JSON format

Metadata record for: A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records - Scientific Data Curation Team (2020)
This dataset contains key characteristics about the data described in the Data Descriptor A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records. Contents: 1. human readable metadata summary table in CSV format 2. machine readable metadata file in JSON format

Laboratory study of the properties of frazil ice particles and flocs in water of different salinities - Schneck, Christopher C.; Ghobrial, Tadros R.; Loewen, Mark R. (The Cryosphere, 2019)
Abstract. Measurements of the size and shape of frazil ice particles and flocs in saline water and of frazil ice flocs in freshwater are limited. This study consisted of a series of laboratory experiments producing frazil ice at salinities of 0 ‰, 15 ‰, 25 ‰ and 35 ‰ to address this lack of data. The experiments were conducted in a large tank in a cold room with bottom-mounted propellers to create turbulence. A high-resolution camera system was used to capture images of frazil ice particles and flocs passing through cross-polarizing lenses. The high-resolution images of the frazil ice were processed using a computer algorithm to differentiate particles from flocs and determine key properties including size, concentration and volume. The size and volume distributions of particles and flocs at all four salinities were found to fit log-normal distributions closely. The concentration, mean size, and standard deviation of flocs and particles were assessed at different times during the supercooling process to determine how these properties evolve with time. Comparisons were made to determine the effect of salinity on the properties of frazil ice particles and flocs. The overall mean size of frazil ice particles in saline water and freshwater was found to range between 0.52 and 0.45 mm, with particles sizes in freshwater ∼13 % larger than in saline water. However, qualitative observations showed that frazil ice particles in saline water tend to be more irregularly shaped. The overall mean size of flocs in freshwater was 2.57 mm compared to a mean size of 1.47 mm for flocs in saline water. The average growth rate of frazil particles was found to be 0.174, 0.070, 0.033, and 0.024 mm min−1 and the average floc growth rate was 0.408, 0.118, 0.089, and 0.072 mm min−1 for the 0 ‰, 15 ‰, 25 ‰, and 35 ‰, respectively. Estimates for the porosity of frazil ice flocs were made by equating the estimated volume of ice produced based on thermodynamic conditions to the estimated volume of ice determined from the digital images. The estimated porosities of frazil ice flocs were determined to be 0.86, 0.82, 0.8 and 0.75 for 0 ‰, 15 ‰, 25 ‰ and 35 ‰ saline water, respectively.

Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau - Sen, Pranab Kumar (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1968)
Abstract The least squares estimator of a regression coefficient β is vulnerable to gross errors and the associated confidence interval is, in addition, sensitive to non-normality of the parent distribution. In this paper, a simple and robust (point as well as interval) estimator of β based on Kendall's [6] rank correlation tau is studied. The point estimator is the median of the set of slopes (Yj - Yi )/(tj-ti ) joining pairs of points with ti ≠ ti , and is unbiased. The confidence interval is also determined by two order statistics of this set of slopes. Various properties of these estimators are studied and compared with those of the least squares and some other nonparametric estimators.

Coupling large-scale climate indices with a stochastic weather generator to improve long-term streamflow forecasts in a Canadian watershed - Sohrabi, Samaneh; Brissette, François P.; Arsenault, Richard (Journal of Hydrology, 2021)

Hydrological modeling of freshwater discharge into Hudson Bay using HYPE - Stadnyk, Tricia A.; MacDonald, Matthew K.; Tefs, Andrew; Déry, Stephen J.; Koenig, Kristina A.; Gustafsson, David; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit (2020)
This study details the enhancement and calibration of the Arctic implementation of the HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) hydrological model established for the BaySys group of projects to produce freshwater discharge scenarios for the Hudson Bay Drainage Basin (HBDB). The challenge in producing estimates of freshwater discharge for the HBDB is that it spans over a third of Canada’s continental landmass and is 40% ungauged. Scenarios for BaySys require the separation between human and climate interactions, specifically the separation of regulated river discharge from a natural, climate-driven response. We present three key improvements to the modelling system required to support the identification of natural from anthropogenic impacts: representation of prairie disconnected landscapes (i.e., non-contributing areas), a method to generalize lake storage-discharge parameters across large regions, and frozen soil modifications. Additionally, a unique approach to account for irregular hydrometric gauge density across the basins during model calibration is presented that avoids overfitting parameters to the densely gauged southern regions. We summarize our methodologies used to facilitate improved separation of human and climate driven impacts to streamflow within the basin and outline the baseline discharge simulations used for the BaySys group of projects. Challenges remain for modeling the most northern reaches of the basin, and in the lake-dominated watersheds. The techniques presented in this work, particularly the lake and flow signature clusters, may be applied to other high latitude, ungauged Arctic basins. Discharge simulations are subsequently used as input data for oceanographic, biogeochemical, and ecosystem studies across the HBDB.

Roadmap towards justice in urban climate adaptation research - Shi, Linda; Chu, Eric; Anguelovski, Isabelle; Aylett, Alexander; Debats, Jessica; Goh, Kian; Schenk, Todd; Seto, Karen C.; Dodman, David; Roberts, Debra; Roberts, J. Timmons; VanDeveer, Stacy D. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Natural Disaster Impacts and Fiscal Decentralization - Skidmore, Mark; Toya, Hideki (Land Economics, 2013)
In recent years, many developing countries have sought to implement more decentralized governmental systems. Despite efforts toward fiscal federalism, assessment of decentralization activity has been hampered by lack of consistent cross-country measures of effectiveness. Since governments play a central role in the management of catastrophic events, disaster impact data provide an opportunity to evaluate whether government structure is important in limiting disaster losses. We use cross-country data over the 1970–2005 period to estimate the relationship between decentralization and disaster casualties; countries with more decentralized governments experience fewer disaster-induced fatalities.

Climate Gentrification: Risk, Rent, and Restructuring in Greater Miami - Taylor, Zac J.; Aalbers, Manuel B. (Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 2022)

Human–water research: discussion of “guiding principles for hydrologists conducting interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants” - Thaler, Thomas (Hydrological Sciences Journal-journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 2022)
Rangecroft et al. provide an important and interesting paper on the challenges of interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants in water resource management. The paper shows the challenges of interaction between their research areas and demonstrates the importance of how a researcher interacts with their selected study sites. My key points reflect the use of different methodologies within social and natural sciences and across them as well as the main challenge of who has the power to influence the research directions. Research is not value-free and is highly influenced by one’s own training and knowledge, which needs to be addressed in the research activities. Finally, an option might be to move beyond interdisciplinary constraints and to work within a stronger transdisciplinary framework. Water research very much needs to interact with non-academic people to understand the challenges and possible solutions.

Catchment Scale Evaluation of Multiple Global Hydrological Models from ISIMIP2a over North America - Troin, Magali; Arsenault, Richard; Fournier, Elyse; Brissette, François (Water, 2021)
A satisfactory performance of hydrological models under historical climate conditions is considered a prerequisite step in any hydrological climate change impact study. Despite the significant interest in global hydrological modeling, few systematic evaluations of global hydrological models (gHMs) at the catchment scale have been carried out. This study investigates the performance of 4 gHMs driven by 4 global observation-based meteorological inputs at simulating weekly discharges over 198 large-sized North American catchments for the 1971–2010 period. The 16 discharge simulations serve as the basis for evaluating gHM accuracy at the catchment scale within the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). The simulated discharges by the four gHMs are compared against observed and simulated weekly discharge values by two regional hydrological models (rHMs) driven by a global meteorological dataset for the same period. We discuss the implications of both modeling approaches as well as the influence of catchment characteristics and global meteorological forcing in terms of model performance through statistical criteria and visual hydrograph comparison for catchment-scale hydrological studies. Overall, the gHM discharge statistics exhibit poor agreement with observations at the catchment scale and manifest considerable bias and errors in seasonal flow simulations. We confirm that the gHM approach, as experimentally implemented through the ISIMIP2a, must be used with caution for regional studies. We find the rHM approach to be more trustworthy and recommend using it for hydrological studies, especially if findings are intended to support operational decision-making.

Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years - Troin, Magali; Arsenault, Richard; Wood, Andrew W.; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean‐Luc (Water Resources Research, 2021)
Abstract Ensemble forecasting applied to the field of hydrology is currently an established area of research embracing a broad spectrum of operational situations. This work catalogs the various pathways of ensemble streamflow forecasting based on an exhaustive review of more than 700 studies over the last 40 years. We focus on the advanced state of the art in the model‐based (dynamical) ensemble forecasting approaches. Ensemble streamflow prediction systems are categorized into three leading classes: statistics‐based streamflow prediction systems, climatology‐based ensemble streamflow prediction systems and numerical weather prediction‐based hydrological ensemble prediction systems. For each ensemble approach, technical information, as well as details about its strengths and weaknesses, are provided based on a critical review of the studies listed. Through this literature review, the performance and uncertainty associated with the ensemble forecasting systems are underlined from both operational and scientific viewpoints. Finally, the remaining key challenges and prospective future research directions are presented, notably through hybrid dynamical ‐ statistical learning approaches, which obviously present new challenges to be overcome in order to allow the successful employment of ensemble streamflow forecasting systems in the next decades. Targeting students, researchers and practitioners, this review provides a detailed perspective on the major features of an increasingly important area of hydrological forecasting. , Key Points This work summarizes the 40 years of research in the generation of streamflow forecasts based on an exhaustive review of studies Ensemble prediction systems are categorized into three classes: statistics‐based, climatology‐based and numerical weather prediction‐based hydrological ensemble prediction systems For each ensemble forecasting system, thorough technical information is provided

Comparing statistical post-processing of regional and global climate scenarios for hydrological impacts assessment: a case study of two canadian catchments - Troin, Magali; Velázquez, Juan Alberto; Caya, Daniel; Brissette, François (Journal of Hydrology, 2015)
Summary Projected climate change effects on streamflow are investigated for the 2041–2070 horizon following the SRES A2 emissions scenario over two snowmelt-dominated catchments in Canada. A 16-member ensemble of SWAT hydrological model (HM) simulations, based on a comprehensive ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) simulations driven by two global climate models (GCMs), with five realizations of the Canadian CGCM3 and three realizations of the German ECHAM5 is established per catchment. This study aims to evaluate, once model bias has been removed by statistical post-processing (SP), how the RCM-simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs, and how they affect the assessment of climate change-induced hydrological impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of streamflow caused by the use of different SP methods (mean-based versus distribution-based) within each statistical post-processing pathway of climate model outputs (bias correction versus perturbation) is also evaluated, as well as the uncertainty of natural climate variability. The simulations cover 1971–2000 in the reference period and 2041–2070 in the future period. For a set of criteria, results based on raw and statistically post-processed model outputs for the reference climate are compared with observations. This process demonstrates that SP is important not only for GCMs outputs, but also for CRCM outputs. SP leads to a high level of agreement between the CRCM and the driving GCMs in reproducing patterns of observed climate. The ensemble spread of the climate change signal on streamflow is large and varies with catchments and hydrological periods (winter/summer flows). The results of various hydrological indicators show that most of the uncertainty arises from the natural climate variability followed by the statistical post-processing. The uncertainty linked to the choice of statistical pathway is much larger than that associated with the choice of the method in quantifying the hydrological impacts. We find that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling of global models through the CRCM as an intermediate step in the GCM–RCM–SP–HM model chain does not lead to considerable differences in the assessment of the climate change impacts on streamflow for the study catchments.

Satellite-Based Human Settlement Datasets Inadequately Detect Refugee Settlements: A Critical Assessment at Thirty Refugee Settlements in Uganda - Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Friedrich, Hannah K. (Remote Sensing, 2021)
Satellite-based broad-scale (i.e., global and continental) human settlement data are essential for diverse applications spanning climate hazard mitigation, sustainable development monitoring, spatial epidemiology and demographic modeling. Many human settlement products report exceptional detection accuracies above 85%, but there is a substantial blind spot in that product validation typically focuses on large urban areas and excludes rural, small-scale settlements that are home to 3.4 billion people around the world. In this study, we make use of a data-rich sample of 30 refugee settlements in Uganda to assess the small-scale settlement detection by four human settlement products, namely, Geo-Referenced Infrastructure and Demographic Data for Development settlement extent data (GRID3-SE), Global Human Settlements Built-Up Sentinel-2 (GHS-BUILT-S2), High Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL) and World Settlement Footprint (WSF). We measured each product’s areal coverage within refugee settlement boundaries, assessed detection of 317,416 building footprints and examined spatial agreement among products. For settlements established before 2016, products had low median probability of detection and F1-score of 0.26 and 0.24, respectively, a high median false alarm rate of 0.59 and tended to only agree in regions with the highest building density. Individually, GRID3-SE offered more than five-fold the coverage of other products, GHS-BUILT-S2 underestimated the building footprint area by a median 50% and HRSL slightly underestimated the footprint area by a median 7%, while WSF entirely overlooked 8 of the 30 study refugee settlements. The variable rates of coverage and detection partly result from GRID3-SE and HRSL being based on much higher resolution imagery, compared to GHS-BUILT-S2 and WSF. Earlier established settlements were generally better detected than recently established settlements, showing that the timing of satellite image acquisition with respect to refugee settlement establishment also influenced detection results. Nonetheless, settlements established in the 1960s and 1980s were inconsistently detected by settlement products. These findings show that human settlement products have far to go in capturing small-scale refugee settlements and would benefit from incorporating refugee settlements in training and validating human settlement detection approaches.

A database of Holocene temperature records for north‐eastern North America and the north‐western Atlantic - Van Bellen, Simon; De Vernal, Anne; To, Anna; Ouellet‐Bernier, Marie‐Michèle; Roy, Natasha; ClimHuNor Members (Geoscience Data Journal, 2020)
Abstract Centennial‐to‐millennial temperature records of the past provide a context for the interpretation of current and future changes in climate. Quaternary climates have been relatively well studied in north‐east North America and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean over the last decades, and new research methods have been developed to improve reconstructions. We present newly inferred reconstructions of sea surface temperature for the north‐western Atlantic region, together with a compilation of published temperature records. The database thus comprises a total of 86 records from both marine and terrestrial sites, including lakes, peatlands, ice and tree rings, each covering at least part of the Holocene. For each record, we present details on seasons covered, chronologies and information on radiocarbon dates and analytical time steps. The 86 records contain a total of 154 reconstructions of temperature and temperature‐related variables. Main proxies include pollen and dinocysts, while summer was the season for which the highest number of reconstructions were available. Many records covered most of the Holocene, but many dinocyst records did not extend to the surface, due to sediment mixing, and dendroclimate records were limited to the last millennium. The database allows for the exploration of linkages between sea ice and climate and may be used in conjunction with other palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental records, such as wildfire records and peatland dynamics. This inventory may also aid the identification of gaps in the geographic distribution of past temperature records thus guiding future research efforts.
Keywords: Gachon_Philippe

A comparative study of fuzzy logic-based models for groundwater quality evaluation based on irrigation indices - Vadiati, Meysam; Nalley, Deasy; Adamowski, Jan; Nakhaei, Mohammad; Asghari-Moghaddam, Asghar (Journal of Water and Land Development, 2019)
Abstract Groundwater quality modelling plays an important role in water resources management decision making processes. Accordingly, models must be developed to account for the uncertainty inherent in the modelling process, from the sample measurement stage through to the data interpretation stages. Artificial intelligence models, particularly fuzzy inference systems (FIS), have been shown to be effective in groundwater quality evaluation for complex aquifers. In the current study, fuzzy set theory is applied to groundwater-quality related decision-making in an agricultural production context; the Mamdani, Sugeno, and Larsen fuzzy logic-based models (MFL, SFL, and LFL, respectively) are used to develop a series of new, generalized, rule-based fuzzy models for water quality evaluation using widely accepted irrigation indices and hydrological data from the Sarab Plain, Iran. Rather than drawing upon physiochemical groundwater quality parameters, the present research employs widely accepted agricultural indices (e.g., irrigation criteria) when developing the MFL, SFL and LFL groundwater quality models. These newly-developed models, generated significantly more consistent results than the United States Soil Laboratory (USSL) diagram, addressed the inherent uncertainty in threshold data, and were effective in assessing groundwater quality for agricultural uses. The SFL model is recommended as it outperforms both MFL and LFL in terms of accuracy when assessing groundwater quality using irrigation indices.

Groundwater Pollution Sources Apportionment in the Ghaen Plain, Iran - Vesali Naseh, Mohammad; Noori, Roohollah; Berndtsson, Ronny; Adamowski, Jan; Sadatipour, Elaheh (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2018)