Bibliographie complète
Mechanisms for Extreme Precipitation Changes in a Tropical Archipelago
Type de ressource
Auteurs/contributeurs
- Argüeso, Daniel (Auteur)
- Luca, A. Di (Auteur)
- Jourdain, N. C. (Auteur)
- Romero, R. (Auteur)
- Homar, V. (Auteur)
Titre
Mechanisms for Extreme Precipitation Changes in a Tropical Archipelago
Résumé
Abstract
The Maritime Continent is one of the most challenging regions for atmospheric models. Processes that modulate deep convection are poorly represented in models, which affects their ability to simulate precipitation features accurately. Thus, future projections of precipitation over the region are prone to large uncertainties. One of the key players in modeling tropical precipitation is the convective representation, and hence convection-permitting experiments have contributed to improve aspects of precipitation in models. This improvement creates opportunities to explore the physical processes that govern rainfall in the Maritime Continent, as well as their role in a warming climate. Here, we examine the response to climate change of models with explicit and parameterized convection and how that reflects in precipitation changes. We focus on the intensification of spatial contrasts as precursors of changes in mean and extreme precipitation in the tropical archipelago. Our results show that the broad picture is similar in both model setups, where islands will undergo an increase in mean and extreme precipitation in a warmer climate and the ocean will see less rain. However, the magnitude and spatial structure of such changes, as well as the projection of rainfall percentiles, are different across model experiments. We suggest that while the primary effect of climate change is thermodynamical and it is similarly reproduced by both model configurations, dynamical effects are represented quite differently in explicit and parameterized convection experiments. In this study, we link such differences to horizontal and vertical spatial contrasts and how convective representations translate them into precipitation changes.
Publication
Journal of Climate
Volume
35
Numéro
17
Pages
5519-5536
Date
2022-09-01
ISSN
0894-8755, 1520-0442
Consulté le
01/11/2024 14:19
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Autorisations
Référence
Argüeso, D., Luca, A. D., Jourdain, N. C., Romero, R., & Homar, V. (2022). Mechanisms for Extreme Precipitation Changes in a Tropical Archipelago. Journal of Climate, 35(17), 5519–5536. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0224.1
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