Bibliographie complète
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Type de ressource
Auteurs/contributeurs
- Sebok, Eva (Auteur)
- Henriksen, Hans Jørgen (Auteur)
- Pastén-Zapata, Ernesto (Auteur)
- Berg, Peter (Auteur)
- Thirel, Guillaume (Auteur)
- Lemoine, Anthony (Auteur)
- Lira-Loarca, Andrea (Auteur)
- Photiadou, Christiana (Auteur)
- Pimentel, Rafael (Auteur)
- Royer-Gaspard, Paul (Auteur)
- Kjellström, Erik (Auteur)
- Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg (Auteur)
- Vidal, Jean Philippe (Auteur)
- Lucas-Picher, Philippe (Auteur)
- Donat, Markus G. (Auteur)
- Besio, Giovanni (Auteur)
- Polo, María José (Auteur)
- Stisen, Simon (Auteur)
- Caballero, Yvan (Auteur)
- Pechlivanidis, Ilias G. (Auteur)
- Troldborg, Lars (Auteur)
- Refsgaard, Jens Christian (Auteur)
Titre
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Résumé
Abstract. Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties
in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert
elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for
specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of
improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In
this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result
of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the
participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts.
For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger
EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological
models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model
weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the
selected models based on a training material that describes the overall
model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of
hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process
follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of
probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated
into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller
group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most
climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas
hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights
to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance
and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if
obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively
small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient
way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce
the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble,
comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could
only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models.
Publication
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume
26
Numéro
21
Pages
5605-5625
Date
2022-11-09
Abrév. de revue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Langue
en
ISSN
1607-7938
Consulté le
06/11/2024 15:14
Catalogue de bibl.
DOI.org (Crossref)
Autorisations
Référence
Sebok, E., Henriksen, H. J., Pastén-Zapata, E., Berg, P., Thirel, G., Lemoine, A., Lira-Loarca, A., Photiadou, C., Pimentel, R., Royer-Gaspard, P., Kjellström, E., Christensen, J. H., Vidal, J. P., Lucas-Picher, P., Donat, M. G., Besio, G., Polo, M. J., Stisen, S., Caballero, Y., … Refsgaard, J. C. (2022). Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(21), 5605–5625. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022
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